Did Track Super "FIX" BC track ?

[karlskorner]

Capital OTB-TV viewers (upstate NY) got an early heads-up....Prior to the running of the first BC race on Saturday the Capital OTB-TV BC program featured a live interview with the on-site commentator. "Today I did watch track superintendent Butch Lehr scrape the track. At ten till nine he scraped it two widths of the track or so, out from the rail two widths....he scraped the track. And he also rolled the track very tight....I think we'll see some pretty quick times and I don't want to say speed-favorig just yet, but it looks like the inside is tailor-made for some pretty quick efforts this afternoon "

[karlskorner]

Over on Equidaily under "Breeders Cup track bias", a 1/2 dozen or more reporters are questioning the scraping of the track and causing the so called "bias" on the rail.

From the Louisville Courier Jorunal, Track Super stated " I am dumbfounded and don't know what to say" ( while he was filling out his deposit slip to his bank )

Like I have been saying for the past 6 years, the Track Super and his tractors can make or break your day at the track.

[boomman]

Karl: It is absolutely ridiculous that the track supervisor at CD ( I assume it's still Butch Lehr) continues to "soup" the track for certain biases on big days there and continually gets away with it with nothing being said...Well, let's hope that he has crossed the line enough this time that the folks that saw him scraping the track (which he obviously did) line up to testify against him in a Kentucky Racing Commission hearing as well as a criminal court of law. It takes away any integrity that we're trying to build in horse racing (especially in front of a 5 hour + national TV audience) and is completely dispicable and disgusting!

[46zilzal]

"Souping up" race tracks is well established. Bellamy Road's Wood was a good example. If one follows energy distribution patterns of winners, day to day, as I have done for over 20 years, it is OBVIOUS when the entire energy reqruirement standards make a 180 degree shift, and the weather has not changed.

At Chruchill specifically, I always watch which way the numbers go on the Friday before the Derby. One year when it was really negative (favoring late moves) the winner was Giacomo, and another year it was just the oppostie and WHO was the winner? Funny Cide with the "miler" Peace Rules running third.

Has to do with scrapping or packing I am told.

[karlskorner]

Even though questioned by 1/2 dozen or more reporters and news outlets, this will be overlooked. If you get to a track early enough watch the tractors and what they are doing, if during the racing day you note that the tractors went "clockwise" a big change is about to take place. Can a Track Super and his tractors make or break your day, you had better believe it.

[boomman]

Karl: With 25+ years in the racing business, I am very familiar with scraping! Even though I was in Vegas and not at Churchill, there is absolutely no question he did it, and hopefully the reporters will stay after this and write about it enough that the Commission will have to step in due to pressure. (I'm not counting on that happening, just hoping)

[karlskorner]

This is why I " silently " question yesterdays so called bias, will it be here today, why I question yesterdays variant, will it be here today, why I question yesterdays pace figures, will they be here today, why I question yesterdays Par figures, will they be here today, why I question yesterdays speed figures, will they be here today or even your energy figures, will they be here today ?

I said "silently" as there are too many people who believe in some or all of the above.

[boomman]

You make a very good point on all the questions to be answered when it comes to handicapping, and although that makes handicapping that much tougher, it probably is what "separates the men from the boys" (just a cliche ladies) and leads to some of those huge overlays that we've all been fortunate to cash in on from time to time. But when you have the honor of hosting racing's "Biggest Day" and INTENTIONALLY set a pronounced track bias, (and noone is arguing this point) that is reprehensible, and needs to be dealt with!

[ryesteve]

INTENTIONALLY set a pronounced track bias, (and noone is arguing this point)
Sure they are. I believe it was CJ who pointed out that the horses that supposedly benefited were horses who figured to run well anyway. At the time, I didn't feel as if I was seeing results that defied explanation either. If Brother Derek had wired the Classic, then yeah, it'd be a slam-dunk.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Being concerned only on BC day is nice, but I like to keep track other days to!

[boomman]

In my opinion, Brother Derek attempted to wire the field from the inside BECAUSE Alex Solis and Dan Hendricks noticed the incredible inside bias. As for the horses that won not running well had there not been a pronounced bias, I'm not saying that and perhaps they would have, as they're all stakes horse and capable of performing well on any given day. But there is absolutely no question that the inside of the track was scraped and like a freeway on the inside. Jockeys like Calvin "Borail" Borel noticed this and were able to take full advantage of the bias which DEFINITELY existed, and the jocks KNEW it...Also, I can assure you that many of us that were in Vegas together that day ONLY used Thor's Echo because of the bias-NO OTHER REASON

[ryesteve]

Also, I can assure you that many of us that were in Vegas together that day ONLY used Thor's Echo because of the bias-NO OTHER REASON
But given the way the race played out, if the rail was such a highway, shouldn't Bordonaro have won by 5?

[Valuist]

Not necessarily. He was under pressure the whole way, unlike in the Ancient Title when the only one chasing him was Thor's Echo.

[rrbauer]

A friend touted me on Street Sense on Wed night after the PP draw. He said he had a good sheet number for the horse and that "Calvin Borel rides the rail at CD as well as anyone"

Thursday morning the horse worked, in the rain, on an off track, and while all of the horses working were out in the 3- and 4-paths, when Borel worked Street Sense, he hugged the rail all the way around.

And except for coming off the rail to pass some horses he rode that rail tight on Saturday too.

So, did Calvin know something in advance, or was he just saving ground?

[linrom1]

In my opinion, Brother Derek attempted to wire the field from the inside BECAUSE Alex Solis and Dan Hendricks noticed the incredible inside bias. As for the horses that won not running well had there not been a pronounced bias, I'm not saying that and perhaps they would have, as they're all stakes horse and capable of performing well on any given day. But there is absolutely no question that the inside of the track was scraped and like a freeway on the inside. Jockeys like Calvin "Borail" Borel noticed this and were able to take full advantage of the bias which DEFINITELY existed, and the jocks KNEW it...Also, I can assure you that many of us that were in Vegas together that day ONLY used Thor's Echo because of the bias-NO OTHER REASON

Other than Proud Tower Two, Thor's Echo is the second best sprinter on the West Coast.

[Murph]

Calvin has always seemed to prefer the inside path.
Have you never heard of Calvin "Bo-rail" ?

Murph

[boomman]

Murph: I mentioned that in my earlier post, you must have missed it....Boom

Jockeys like Calvin "Borail" Borel noticed this and were able to take full advantage of the bias which DEFINITELY existed, and the jocks KNEW it...

[JustMissed]

I reviewed the charts for all 10 races. With 3 on the turf, I wanted to see how many winning runners on dirt were in the 1 or 2 path.

I believe "Near Inside" means the 2 path but I trust I will be corrected if not so.

R1. Near inside
R2. 3/4 wide
R3. NI
R4. Rail
R6. Inside/3W
R8. Rail
R10. 3wide/5wide/7path

Obviously there was a rail bias but I do not buy into Karl's conspiracy theory.

JM

P.s. CJ, nice call on Round Pound. I hope you had a bundle on her. I appreciate you posting your analysis and your discipline to pass the chalk and go for the heavy overlays.

[boomman]

If Karl's "conspiracy theroy" is so far off base, then why was it that many people, including ones on live television, saw the tractors scraping the topsoil off the inner rail? What possible motivation other than larceny could have compelled them to do that? And even though a few winners did come from the outside, one of those was at a mile and a quarter and by one of the best older horses on earth. You acknowledged that there was an obvious rail bias which there was of course, and I can find no evidence that the bias wasn't intentional...

[boomman]

Plan B: Huh? What has OBITS have to do with this thread? PA what's this doing here? LOL Next, for those of you that don't think a rail bias existed on Saturday, take a look at some pretty knowledgeable fellows including one trainer who benefitted from the bias (Doug O'Neill) who said he could have sold his post position in the sprint for a lot of cash!!!

And from Beyer..

"Horses who tried to rally in the middle of the track seemed to lose their momentum and were out-kicked by horses nearer the rail. Invasor was the only one able to win with an outside rally"

doug o'neill seems to think a bias existed

thors echo-

"At first we were really down about drawing the rail, but after watching the earlier races we could tell there was a bias towards the inside and we really started to get excited because it was obvious the rail was the place to be," said O'Neill, who won the 2005 Juvenile with Stevie Wonderboy. "We even started joking before the race about how we could probably sell our post for good money. And even though the post helped, Corey did a fantastic job maneuvering him out like he did."

[PlanB]

I think an inside bias was very R E A L. Nothing will change that; and it's NOT
just that most winners started off in the inside #1 post; it's how they won.
The OBIT joke is how bad deductions are made, but not concerning the BC
dirt races. Hey, that's horse racing.

[jetermvpbaby]

I feel that its in the best interest of large bettors to pay off the track super to maintain the track a certain way, so that they are able to handicap the night before knowing about a track bias that will occur in advance.


Why do you think the Tri was so low in the Sprint. 15-1 over 58-1 over 25-1 in a 14 horse field and you get only 5 grand? Cmon now. That tri is worth 20k. the super paid 100k with the co-favorite hanging on for 4th. If you box the inside 8 horses, you cash knowing the outside lanes have no shot.

What other reason than larceny would a track super have to manipulate the track surface?

I believe the fix was in. Someone benefitted big time from this manipulation. Who, remains the question.

[PaceAdvantage]

Scraping the inside part of the track isn't some earth-shattering newfangled gimmick designed to fix races. It's been done by track maintenance crews before big racing days for YEARS, primarily to promote fast final times.

I know it was common practice at NYRA to do this when I first got into the game during the late 80's and into the 90s. It has lost its lustre in recent years because of the belief that it contributes to injuries and breakdowns, which aren't exactly desirable, especially during nationally televised events.

I'm not quite sure where all this disbelief is coming from by those in the press and some on the board. Like I said, this is a common practice (or at least, it used to be....)

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah but the contra fact is that the final times were not exceptional on the day. At least from what I recall, going from memory. None of the winners were close to track records were they?

SO hard to say the track was really fast. Inside bias, yeah it sure looked like it given that CD normally seems to play fair.

[robert99]

Scraping the inside part of the track isn't some earth-shattering newfangled gimmick designed to fix races. It's been done by track maintenance crews before big racing days for YEARS, primarily to promote fast final times.

I know it was common practice at NYRA to do this when I first got into the game during the late 80's and into the 90s. It has lost its lustre in recent years because of the belief that it contributes to injuries and breakdowns, which aren't exactly desirable, especially during nationally televised events.

I'm not quite sure where all this disbelief is coming from by those in the press and some on the board. Like I said, this is a common practice (or at least, it used to be....)

Without any evidence as to what the track crew were or were not asked to do I would take the more charitable view that the track were making a muddling attempt to remove any adverse bias on the inside - but inadvertently making the middle worse. The problem is that they do this by "eye" - there is no science, measurement nor control to it.

We get this on UK turf where the drainage runs, soil variations etc give natural and predictable constant biases. The track then overwater the fast stretches but (as at CD) don't officially inform anyone including trainers/jockeys. UK is researching density metres etc for polytracks that can measure the speed at any section of track but application is a long way off. Meanwhile, standardise preparations, leave the track to nature and stop meddling.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"What other reason than larceny would a track super have to manipulate the track surface?"
If the inside was intentionally scraped, another reason could have been to give bettors at the track watching live an advantage?

[boomman]

I'm not quite sure where all this disbelief is coming from by those in the press and some on the board. Like I said, this is a common practice (or at least, it used to be....)


PA: Sure, this was common practice years ago, but definitely has not been since horses started breaking down in "groves". The real question is, why does the track supervisor only do this during large betting days like the Ky Derby or The Breeders Cup? The track plays extremely fair the remainder of the year, but gets "extra attention" on big handle days. To make the statement that this wasn't done intentionally for syndicates or whoever to capitalize is simply burying your head in the sand. I have been in the business over 25 years and have seen everything, and I can assure you this was 100% intentional with no bettor's paranoia attached. The person that made the point about the $5000 tri that should have paid $20,000 (minimum) is spot on. Large syndicates or high betting individuals were tipped and simply boxed the inside on their tickets.....

[JPinMaryland]

The person that made the point about the $5000 tri that should have paid $20,000 (minimum) is spot on. Large syndicates or high betting individuals were tipped and simply boxed the inside on their tickets.....

No the person who made that statement is simply cherry picking one race that didnt fit the normal picture. The rest of the dirt races paid of just as expected or quite generously. The idea this one race proves anything is bull shit.

Let's go through the dirt races one by one. (I didnt count the first race but prolly should).

One way to rough guess the exacata/trifecta payout is to expect the exacta and trifecta to pay about double what you'd get if you multiply the win odds on each horse. Doesnt always work, but you can plug in your own estimates, its not going to change the payouts at CD on 11/4.

I didnt use a calculator just some rough math, maybe rounding errors but nothing too far off:

Race 2; multiply win odds of first two...70. Exacta payout 140. Spot on.

Race 3. exacta win odds..14 Exacta paid 50. Generous. Trifecta paid in line with that i.e. generous.

Race 4. Exacta win odds...45. Payout 180. Generous. Trifecta win odds 315; payout 996. Generous.

Race 6. That was the odd one, exacta win odds 870, payout 953. Meagre. Same with Trifecta win odds 26k payout 10k. No doubt this had something to do with little old ladies hitting 1/2.

Race 8 Exacta win odds...150. Payout 446. Generous. Trifecta win odds 2200; payout 4355. Right on.

Race 10. Exacta win odds...8. Payout 39. Generous. Trifecta win odds 324; payout 695. about right.

So out of six races on dirt they all paid as they should or were quite generous. This contradicts that guys theory. It is probably what happened in race 6 was that the 1/2 came in and lots of people had that one. Simple as that.

[JPinMaryland]

Might as well do the first race too, although you'd think that if there was a track bias people would probably wait till the after the first race just to make sure.

Race 1, exacta win odds: 45; payout 100. Normal. Trifecta win odds 180; payout 406, Right on.


Just for the record, The six race was not a 5,000 trifecta it was a $10,612. The expected win odds comes out to about 25,230. So it was a low payout.


ANother problem with this theory, why would it only apply to exactas and trifectas why wouldnt those in the know also use this information to cash in on wins and place...? In that case, the depression on those odds, would then depress the trifecta/exacta/super payouts to the pt where they should be right in line.

I.e. there would be no discrepancy in exotic payouts vs win odds, if people in the know were playing them both. Why would they only play exotics?

[boomman]

The fact of the matter is that most syndicates play exotics...They can box the inside 6 horses in a tri for only $120, 7 horses for $210, or even 8 horses for $336....That's peanuts when dealing with a large bankroll and playing into large pools..They can even wheel an inside horse in all 3 spots in a trifecta (even in a 14 horse field) for $156 a position or $468 for all 3 positons, again peanuts when using big price horses for expected HUGE returns. I assume that they caught the trifecta that ran #'s 1-2 many times (as they probably double keyed BOTH inside horses many times over)thus resulting in the HUGE underlay tri...But even if you throw out every exotic pay-out of the day and ignore the obvious inside bias, it still begs the question.....What the hell were the tractors doing scraping the inside rail off at 9 am when the track had already been renovated and was ready to go? This is not common practice anymore due to the serious risk to the horses, (which I explained earlier in this thread to PA) This was witnessed by many people...The one race with the huge exotic underlays simply endorses the issue of larceny, doesn't confuse it in my mind....I have been reading threads on PA for quite some time and haven't participated in any other forum accusing larceny, and hate it when people arbitrarily (with no facts to back it up) yell fix...BUT THIS IS WHAT IT IS...By the way, don't you think it's a bit ironic that the last major betting scandal (guys in tote changing tickets to hit the pick 6) happened during the breeders cup races? It's no coincidence that if someone is going to try and cheat to take down the pools, this is the day they wait for!

[JPinMaryland]

so why did the syndicate only play race 6, can you answer that one? if they had hit the other races then the other exotic payoffs should have been a lot less but they werent. So why only race 6?

[boomman]

I don't think it's a matter of them only playing that race, as much as it is that they scored a "touchdown" in race 6 which made the HUGE syndicate hit so obvious...And because the rail was dominating the races and they appeared to know from the very start that it would be, when BOTH inside horses ran 1-2 at huge odds, they made a gigantic score, and the tote mutuels (which should have been much larger) indicated exactly what had taken place....

[jetermvpbaby]

Great post boom, i agree. you sort of said what i was thinking but maybe my post didn't clarify it as well as you did.

[boomman]

Thanks! I appreciate it!

[racefinder2]

Does anyone know who 'they' are ?

And if there was a horse called 'Ride the Rails' running, how much he would have lowered the payoffs?

[delayjf]

I just watched Thor's Echo win in the Sprint. He may have broke from the 1 hole, but he was three to four wide on the turn. IMHO his race does not support the existence of a bias.

I also reviewed the winners from the previous day. All but one of the winners made a wide move (at least three wide) to win.

if during the racing day you note that the tractors went "clockwise" a big change is about to take place.

can you explain why tractors moving clockwise would have that affect?

[classhandicapper]

On Friday, the track was playing to closers and "if anything" the outside paths were a little better. I posted that in several forums Friday night as something to look for on Saturday. I think it's pretty clear I wasn't the only one that noticed it. They must have worked on the track in an attempt to correct it for the BC races, but overdid it by accident.

[boomman]

Class: I would sure like to think that what happened on Saturday was an "accident" but the realist in me is having a hard time doing that. They scraped the inside of the track plain and simple! For the posters that are trying to see other possible explanations, I respect their opinion, but instead of reading charts, just watch the videos of the races, as they tell the entire story! Invasor did win from the outside, and it just shows how great a horse that he is, because the greatest Grade 1 horses on earth CAN overcome biases, and he proved it in stone. As for that race, you might notice that the connections of Brother Derek knew that the inside was a speedway, and tried to wire them in there and take advantage of the extreme bias. Good try on their part, but just too tall of an order with an inferior horse (as he stacked up in that field) to get the job done. When the trainer of Thor's Echo tells you that he could have sold his inside draw for a lot of money on race day (as I copied earlier in this thread) that should answer any lingering questions....

[JPinMaryland]

Suff, I think, said the track was favoring inside paths on thur and fri...

[delayjf]

When the trainer of Thor's Echo tells you that he could have sold his inside draw for a lot of money on race day (as I copied earlier in this thread) that should answer any lingering questions....

I can understand how many racing fans / trainers etc could come to the conclusion that there was an inside bias a) Given the post positions that won, and the rail hugging performance of Dreaming of Anna. But I'm still not convinced, Street Sence made an outside move on the turn and dropped down to the rail in the stretch. Round Pound moved up on the inside but dropped down to the rail entering the stretch. So there was only one horse with a rail hugging trip that won. Hense my skepticism.

[kenwoodallpromos]

SO would the quality of the horse neccessary to overcome a bias, and the inferior horse able to take advantage of a bias, depend on how pronouced the bias was?
If so, what does the payoffs on the winners say about how big a bias there was?

[classhandicapper]

Suff, I think, said the track was favoring inside paths on thur and fri...

I didn't watch all the races on Friday with PPs in front of me, but the track was definitely playing differently. The rail may or may not have been OK, but it wasn't an advantage that day (at least IMO). It looked like a closer's track on Friday.

[robert99]

Different horses, different bias??

[boomman]

Ken: I would conclude that the inside bias definitely boosted the price on Invasor. I can't imagine that he would have returned $15 and change with all things equal. As for the inferior horse being Brother Derek on the rail, I think he lead it much further than he would have had that bias not existed. As for Friday's races at Churchill, imho the racetrack was night and day of how it played on Cup day. I concur that closers on the outside was the "trip to the winner's circle" on Friday......Here's an idea? Why doesn't the track supervisor at Churchill do his job and get the track to play fair everyday? Just a thought.....

[Valuist]

CH-

I didn't see the races from Thursday the 2nd but you are correct that the outside paths were desirable at CD last Friday (Nov. 3).

[Valuist]

I can understand how many racing fans / trainers etc could come to the conclusion that there was an inside bias a) Given the post positions that won, and the rail hugging performance of Dreaming of Anna. But I'm still not convinced, Street Sence made an outside move on the turn and dropped down to the rail in the stretch. Round Pound moved up on the inside but dropped down to the rail entering the stretch. So there was only one horse with a rail hugging trip that won. Hense my skepticism.

I know the camera work was bad but watch a replay of Street Sense on the Breeders Cup site. At widest, he was in about the 2 path for part of the turn. The rest of the way he hugged the rail.

[Murph]

Different horses, different bias??It is entirely possible that saving ground early is an under rated factor when considering G1 contenders who are so closely matched.

Murph

[JustRalph]

he didn't just save ground........he went by them like he was on a rail.... :lol:

[classhandicapper]

Ken: I would conclude that the inside bias definitely boosted the price on Invasor. I can't imagine that he would have returned $15 and change with all things equal.

I agree with you.

I was concerned about him being 100% off the 3 month layoff and discounted his chances a bit because of that, but even if I was sure he was 100% fit, I would have discounted his chances a bit because of the outside post and probability of gound loss on that track. Others had to be doing the same thing.

The one thing that no one seems to be mentioning much is that Castellano lost a lot of ground on Bernardini despite a pretty good post postion draw. Considering that everyone and his mother either thought, suspected, or was at least considering the possibility of an inside bias why didn't he make an effort to save some ground?

[karlskorner]

I read a lot of "woulda, coulda,shoulda" in some of the posts The simple fact is that the CD Super "scraped" two paths wide off the rail Saturday morning. This was witnessed by the Capital OTB commentator and several others. The 5 English newsman present made a big stink about it. Accept the fact that the track was intentionaly scraped, what ever the reason be. Who ever played the BC were shafted, plain and simple.

[PlanB]

It is entirely possible that saving ground early is an under rated factor when considering G1 contenders who are so closely matched.

Murph

If they were so closely matched---like I thought myself---why was there NOT
ONE PHOTO FINISH. NOT ONE!!! (footnote: JR said this first, in a BC post)

[delayjf]

Karl,

Indeed that is troubling. I'm not saying your wrong, only that I'm dubvious as to it's affects. Again, could you explain the clock wise tractor theory, I'd honestly like to know.

[karlskorner]

95 percent of the time you will see the tractors before and during the races going counter-clock wise, mostly for cosmetics to make the track look nice.
However should you arrive early at the track and notice the tractors going clockwise, this was a decision of the Track Super. By going clockwise he is changing the entire make up of the track, by setting the harrows deeper, by adding weight to the harrows, what ever caused this decision be it a so called bias, deep rail, hard rail, a drastic change had to be made. In other words this is not yesterdays track. Given the benefit of doubt that there was no conspiracy by the CD Track Super, he almost guranteed posts 1 and 2 to those who were aware of this change. Even during the racing day the Track Super can change a so called bias by either drawing the sand away from the rail or towards the rail, unbeknownst to the wagering public. A handicapoper who thinks the rail is golden, is in for a big surprise when everything changes after the 4th race. the Track Super has moved the outside to rail side. Does all this take place everyday, of course not, but it happens to often.

[NY BRED]

the bias topic is obvious, but what about speed , pace figures and form
cycles leading into last saturday?

picking the winner was diffcult enough, picking the exacta/tri was virtually impossible.

[boomman]

You are spot on! And here's the thing: In horse racing, the betting public should be notified of any significant track maintenance (like Santa Anita does and the announcements I make at Yavapai, such as the track has been sealed in anticipation of impending monsoons, etc,) AHEAD of time as to not indicate the likely larceny that went on here. Bettors can then come to their own conclusions pre-race as opposed to this crap after bettors have been separated from their hard earned cash... And of course, a lot of bettors basically think they get screwed all the time in one vein or another, whether it be from a so called "super" trainer, a jock who stiffed one of their horses, etc. Being in the business as long as I have and being one of the few in the business who actually supplement their income betting on horses, I am always quick to defend horse racing in many cases and simply say that the so-called "stiff" or whatever was just another bettor experiencing extreme paranoia. But there is no way I can explain this away...They scraped the track, noone was told and we saw what happened along with a very suspicious corresponding pay-off in the sprint to assume that some large players were indeed "in on it".

[PaceAdvantage]

But you act as if this is something unique. As I said, track maintenence crews have been scraping tracks for ages, and I can't remember even one time the announcer came on the P.A. to tell the crowd before the races that the track was altered. It just doesn't happen. Should it? Perhaps, but there are many things that go by the wayside that the handicapper isn't privvy to.....a change in diet for a particular horse, "flap" surgery, horses who have been "nerved", etc. etc.....

Nothing prevents you from showing up in the morning and monitoring what the track maintenance crew is doing, if you so desire.

[The Judge]

I like most people know BC is a day when with a little luck (well may be a lot of luck) you can have a huge day. I took more money to the track then normal and I made my bets as soon as I walked in.

I do not feel that I was given a fair shot at winning its as simple as that. So I agree with KarlsKorners statement "we got shafted".

[boomman]

PA and the Judge: First of all, PA it is true that scraping of the track surface has gone on forever, but doing it in a clandestine fashion on racing's BIGGEST day can only lead to destroying what integrity racing has left. Several years ago, stewards and track management came to me in New Mexico and Arizona and said we'd like you to do everything you can to notify the public of EVERYTHING going on, whether it be a flipping halter added in a quarter horse race, unannounced 1st time lasix, equipment change, track renovation you name it. What judge says about dropping off his bets, knowing nothing about how the track had purposely been changed is just not right and never will be. We are in the age of the information super highway, but the only "highway" at Churchill on Breeder's Cup Day was on the rail!!!

[JustRalph]

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/6573058

~snippet~
The latest evidence is BC Distaff winner Round Pond's disappointing return to the races last Sunday when she was fourth in the Rampart Handicap, 11 lengths in arrears. This follows Dreaming of Anna's failure to reproduce her Churchill Downs form this winter and Thor's Echo's poor showing in Dubai. All of these horses posted victories on BC day. All drew the inside post position. Only superstar Invasor triumphed from an outside post.

Now it's time for the fifth horse who left from stall No. 1 that afternoon, Street Sense, to make his long-awaited debut in this Saturday's $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), where he will face the Todd Pletcher-trained Any Given Saturday. Street Sense rode the Churchill rail to a 10-length win and the 2-year-old championship while leaving a host of perplexed trainers grumbling about the conditions

~end snippet~

more at the link

[bobphilo]

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/6573058

~snippet~
The latest evidence is BC Distaff winner Round Pond's disappointing return to the races last Sunday when she was fourth in the Rampart Handicap, 11 lengths in arrears. This follows Dreaming of Anna's failure to reproduce her Churchill Downs form this winter and Thor's Echo's poor showing in Dubai. All of these horses posted victories on BC day. All drew the inside post position. Only superstar Invasor triumphed from an outside post.

Now it's time for the fifth horse who left from stall No. 1 that afternoon, Street Sense, to make his long-awaited debut in this Saturday's $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), where he will face the Todd Pletcher-trained Any Given Saturday. Street Sense rode the Churchill rail to a 10-length win and the 2-year-old championship while leaving a host of perplexed trainers grumbling about the conditions

~end snippet~

more at the link

I also heard that the track was worked on and watered again before the BC Classic, which might explain way outside horses did well in that race.



I'm not sure how much Street Sense’s performance tomorrow will tell us though because, as the Fat Man pointed out on another thread, he may not be cranked up for a top effort off the lay-off. I doubt Nafzger will try to (in the immortal words of Horatio Luro) "squeeze too much out of the lemon" with a grueling TC series ahead.
In any case, I think the evidence is pretty compelling that the Churchil rail was souped-up regardless of what SS does.

Bob

[karlskorner]

Tampa Bay Derby whole new ball game. Different horses, jocks, trainers, owners and a different Track Super. Who knows ? Reminds me a while back on another thread I posted I walked into CRC early one day, walked over to the gap, found 3 tractors in tandem going clockwise on the rail. 7 out of 12 races were won out of the one hole that day.

[JustRalph]

I am gonna have to bet the 1 horse in the Tampa Derby............

most eligible to move up if you ask me..........and hopefully at a price

[Robert Fischer]

the outside post has an interesting bomb in the TB.

[Robert Fischer]

the outside post has an interesting bomb in the TB.

third behind the two stars... glad i didn't play this- he paid 2.10 to show at 20-1

[46zilzal]

The winner today in the Tampa Bay Derby has the running style to win that first Saturday in May. Keeping a close watch on how this one matures from here on.