Miesques Approval

[linrom1]

I did not bet Miesque's Approval for the 5th time this year, and of course, this horse has proved me wrong 5 out of 7 times this year. So you might think this is pretty foolish of me to go against horse like this! In retrospect-- yes I agree. However, I didn't bet this horse for a reason. The following is a summary of this horse' racing record:


Age ear Lifetime 1st 2nd 3rd Highlites
2 2001 6 3 2 1 Sar Msw by 4 over Union Place
Bel Alw44kx1 by 1 over Grafton
Aqu Pilgrim75k by nk over Finality
Wo Summer-G2 2nd to El Soprano by nk
3 2002 7 2 2 Del Kent-G3 by nk Regal Sanction, Quest Star 3rd
Crc (S)HeathTurfHcp-150k by hd over Sir Brian Sword
Bel HillPrice-G3 2nd to Van Minister by 1/2
Crc Calder Derby-G3 2nd to Union Place by nk, Judge Says Who 3rd
4 2003 4 3 Kee Makers Mark-G2 2nd to Royal Spy 1 1/4, Touch of the Blues 3rd
Gp Canadian Turf-G3 2nd to Political Attack by 1/2, Strategic Partner 3rd
5 2004 9 1 2 1 Gp Alw46knwx2$rt3mx hd Marcos Word, Spruce Run 3rd
Kee Alw67knwx$rt9mx 2nd to Wando, Pices 3rd
Sar Clm100000 $49k 2nd to Satge Call by 1 1/4
6 2005 5 1 2 Suf Hcp50K by 2 3/4
Crc Carterista75k 3rd by 1 1/4 Final prophecy
Sar OC100000nx3 3rd by 1/2 Rahy's Chance
Record with W. Mott Aqu 11/5/05 Clm50000 6th by 6 3/4
31 7 9 4
6 2005 1 Crc 12/26/05 Hcp40k 4th by 3 1/2
7 2006 7 5 1 Cd BC Mile-G1 1st
Kee Makers Mark-G2 1st
Cd Firecracker H-G2 1st
Mth Red Bank-G3 1st
Record with M.D. Wolfson Gp SunshineMillions500k 1st
Record with M.D. Wolfson
8 5 1



Neither William Mott nor Jerry Bailey are naive when it comes to judging horse's ability to run on turf, yet, Mott considered that SUF and CLM races were most appropriate level for this horse. J. D. Bailey who rode this horse 19 times in his career said he didn't think that the "horse was this good." So how can a 7 year horse who showed some potential when he was 2-3 years, but who has only defeated mediocre turf horses suddenly defeat Group 1 horses.

[PaceAdvantage]

We all know Jerry Bailey's answer to your question, thanks to his thinly veiled comments on national television yesterday.

Whether or not Bailey is correct doesn't excuse the arrogance he displayed. Give us a break Jerry. Just because Mott gave up on the horse, and another trainer got him going again, this automatically means it's "accusation time?"

Does everything Mott touches automatically turn to GOLD? And when it doesn't, that means the horse's career is dead forever, never to turn things around again?

God Forbid anyone ever shows up the "Mighty" Mott/Bailey team....

BTW, let me ask you guys a question. If we are to believe some sort of "Magic" was involved with Miesque's Approval (using Jerry Bailey's own words), how come this same "Magic" that Todd Pletcher is often accused of using, failed oh so miserably for that trainer on Saturday? He didn't win a single race despite having so many horses running.....

[linrom1]

JD Bailey has a great sense of humor combined with uncanny wit. I've only heard his remark when he said " I didn't think that the horse was that good." Now, that's an understatement. :D

Todd Pletcher makes a living beating up on competition in MSW and ALWx1 with expansive, precocious horses. I usually ignore his horses at anything above ALWx1 level, unless it's an exceptional horse like Wait A While or Honey Ryder. Pletcher's horses also do not exhibit unusual performance improvements: they are either winners from the get go or are quickly retired.

[ponyplayer]

IMHO, Wolfson is a pretty damn good traininer.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If I am reading this correct, this MA bum placed 16 of 31 lifetime? Did you bet place at the BC at its tote odds? How many times did Bailey place on it? Did HE bet it to place Saturday?
Reread Ainslie's book about betting (favs anyway) to place in big races.

[Robert Fischer]

I didn't wager here. I was going to key Aragorn 1st 2nd and possibly 3rd in trifectas, however wisely (or not in this case), I had reached a goal after the third race and stopped.

some strong opinions i was considering before the race
*the european milers should almost all want more distance than 8f here in the us.
*Aragorn looked like the strongest american miler
*Badge of Silver was a classy enough dirt horse who seems to love the turf and shows strong works - could contrast the european underlays well
*I didn't like gorella one bit(not sure this was necessary)\
-------
opinions after the race (hindsight)
*I did not have miesque's approval rated that much worse than Aragorn among american milers in this race. (top east-coast entered)

[classhandicapper]

BTW, let me ask you guys a question. If we are to believe some sort of "Magic" was involved with Miesque's Approval (using Jerry Bailey's own words), how come this same "Magic" that Todd Pletcher is often accused of using, failed oh so miserably for that trainer on Saturday? He didn't win a single race despite having so many horses running.....

Todd didn't have his Mojo. ;)

[Valuist]

We all know Jerry Bailey's answer to your question, thanks to his thinly veiled comments on national television yesterday.

Whether or not Bailey is correct doesn't excuse the arrogance he displayed. Give us a break Jerry. Just because Mott gave up on the horse, and another trainer got him going again, this automatically means it's "accusation time?"

Does everything Mott touches automatically turn to GOLD? And when it doesn't, that means the horse's career is dead forever, never to turn things around again?

God Forbid anyone ever shows up the "Mighty" Mott/Bailey team....

BTW, let me ask you guys a question. If we are to believe some sort of "Magic" was involved with Miesque's Approval (using Jerry Bailey's own words), how come this same "Magic" that Todd Pletcher is often accused of using, failed oh so miserably for that trainer on Saturday? He didn't win a single race despite having so many horses running.....

Wolfson has had post race positives in the past and he was in a conflict with Arlington over how long a certain drug could stay in a horse's system. Apparently what was ok at Calder wouldn't work in Illinois and AP wouldn't let him run Miesque's Approval in the Million. He got upset and vowed to never run there. No big deal; I think the Million and Beverly D will go on fine w/out him.

As for Pletcher, other than 2004 when security was reportedly very lax, he's had his struggles in the Breeders Cup. Of all his horses, I thought Scat Daddy had the best chance. Wait a While had never run against a horse like Ouija Board and Circular Quay is a closing sprinter who benefitted when the pace fell apart late. Maybe security was tighter this year. Its also interesting that there was a rumor on another board (nobody else has substantiated this) that a couple of his horses MAY have smelled of DMSO in the paddock. I will point out that it is strictly a rumor and there may be no evidence at all of wrongdoing.

[Pace Cap'n]

Is DMSO not permitted?

[JPinMaryland]

Does it have a smell? I remember handling it once or twice but I cant recall a smell..

[Valuist]

Does it have a smell? I remember handling it once or twice but I cant recall a smell..

Smells like garlic.

I know its not permitted in most states. Not sure about Kentucky.

[racefinder2]

Pardon my naivete, but didnt this horse just run a great race, like he has been doing all year?

Why the paranoia ? Arent most horses running on therapeutic meds after they have been racing awhile? Dont the rival trainers all have access to the same 'magic' if they want it??? Maybe I'm missing something, but I dont hear people complaining when they win and the supposed drugged horses and 'juice trainers' lose.

[PaceAdvantage]

Part of the problem with this horse in particular, is that he showed MASSIVE improvement in his speed figures once he left the Mott barn, if memory serves me correctly. That always stokes the conspiracy flames....and rightly so at times....

[fmhealth]

I had MA for one simple reason. I believe that M Wolfson is perhaps the best "shipping trainer" in the country. His steeds consistenly outrun their odds at various tracks.

I had played MA a few weeks prior to the BC in a Stakes at Kee. I believe he ran 4th or 5th that day. Not really a dismal performance as he was very wide on both turns.

I don't have any empirical data to support this statement. But, I believe that betting MW with all his shippers will produce a very positive ROI.

[turffan]

Wolfson has a positive ROI across all races (+0.61 going into the BC).

Very rare for this to occur.