BEYERS

[Derek2U]

Lets talk about the Beyers. Probably I did more seeking into
the Beyers than anything else in racing .... which is NOT saying
too much. (I only research a few points in racing.)
At any rate, I have found a few examples of when the Beyers
are VERY misleading. (1) THE 1-TURN MILE. The Beyers often,
often OVER-ESTIMATE a horse's speed here; (2) WET tracks.
Ditto. (3) Very SLOW Races! Here is where I think one can get
overlays. EXAMPLE: A horse wins in 1:11 and Beyer measures
that the DAY/RACE just "HAD" to BE SLOW by Beyer 8 points.
hehe ... Let's face it, a SLOW horse is also likely to race to slow
times, regardless of IF the track was slow or fast. A SLOW horse
rarely gets hurt because it's just too slow to hurt itself. Only
the real FAST hurt themselves. Anyways, I think you can profit
when you find a Naturally Slow horse gets a Larger Beyer because Beyer attributed its slowness to a Track Variant and
not just a Slow-Horse.

[Jaguar]

Derek, my study of the Beyer's revealed that the DRF speed ratings and variants are 15% more accurate than the Beyer's.

Moreover, Dan Pope's correction factor for the Beyer's is a very accurate way to go.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Derek2U]

hey guys .... i really wish i get a lot of replies to my beyers idea.
i have come to beleive in them so don't shatter my illuSions.

[cj]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Derek, my study of the Beyer's revealed that the DRF speed ratings and variants are 15% more accurate than the Beyer's.

Moreover, Dan Pope's correction factor for the Beyer's is a very accurate way to go.

All the best,

Jaguar

Jaguar,

What kind of studies? I find it hard to believe the DRF speed ratings are more accurate...better ROI maybe, but what is your criteria for accuracy?

CJ

[dav4463]

I've seen Dan Pope's name pop up on occasion lately. I received a letter from him in the mail touting his WINGS system which has some outlandish promises in it. I wrote him off as just another system seller, but now I hear about his correction of the Beyer formula, his profitable angles which are no longer on the market. Who is this Dan Pope? Is he for real?

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Derek, my study of the Beyer's revealed that the DRF speed ratings and variants are 15% more accurate than the Beyer's.


Which means 15% more accurate how? 15% more what than what?


I don't see how you can possibly measure "accuracy" when it comes to adjusted times anyway, except in a very general way (the horse than wins should have a higher final time figure than the one that came second, etc.) After all, they're NOT supposed to measure the actual race time, but to gauge the performance within the context of the way the surface was that day. There is no standard to compare to.

You can measure "predictiveness" in terms of how well they predict future performances, but that is not the same thing. In fact, you can improve predictiveness by calculating figures in ways that are clearly less accurate than others.

[cj]

Derek,

I would say not just one turn miles, but any one turn route. Its not really that the Beyers are not accurate, its that its a different kind of race and not really comparable to a two turn race of the same distance. Some horses prefer the one turn, some prefer two.

As for slow races, the time is not really a factor as the variant is usually based on all the races. The thing you need to look for is when the Beyer is assigned a different variant than the other races run under similiar conditions, which happens about 5-10% of the time.

CJ

p.s. One other thing...I don't know why, but Keeneland figures are highly unreliable elsewhere. Maybe just a very unique track!

[jandrus]

I have not seen any thing from jagar that really that makes sense
who is that guy. From his posts i get the feeling he is trying to past himself off as a master handicapper.

[Jaguar]

Truck, you are right, this guy Jagar is an idiot. Spent 20 years learning how to handicap and he mostly gets chalk. I think he should go back to his old job as a commercial fisherman in Brazil.

Do you know why they don't have horse racing in Brazil? The reason is because if a horse should lose its footing and fall into the Amazon river down there, they have flesh-eating Pirhanas that will strip the meat right off that horse's bones. This is also the reason they don't have inter-collegiate swimming competition in Brazil.

Curiously though, the Brazilian women look great in bikinis.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

Pace Guy,

some years ago I put a few weeks into bench-marking the Beyer's for a bunch of different tracks against the DRF speed ratings and track variants- using the incidence of winners as the criterion. The DRF figures picked 15% more winners..





At the same time, as a separate but related study, I used RaceCom's Analyst 2.0 to measure the rate at which these winner's expended energy, and the manner in which they did so.

The only thing I got out of the energy study was that I learned that fast-closing horses win sprints- which led me to Dan Pope's Stretch Run program. He eventually issued his excellent correction formula for the Beyers.



Dan Pope is a mechanical engineer by training, a sharp handicapper, and a very bright guy. He is clever at measuring expended energy in a simple way which can easily be applied to handicapping.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

Game theory,

I am just an old hack handicapper. Dan Pope is an excellent scientist as well as an expert handicapper. He would be able to give a really cogent reply to the question of the relative accuracy of the Beyers, since he did a big study which resulted in his first-rate correction formula for that method.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Chico]

While a discussion of Beyer numbers merits a long analysis, I will limit my comments to just a couple of personal observations.
First, I believe the numbers presented from sloppy and "off" tracks are totally unreliable and should never be relied upon for handicapping purposes. Generally speaking, I find them to be
be from 10 - 30% higher than normal.
Second, turf route Beyers are also highly unreliable. Because of the nature of the way turf routes are run, the pace calls of routes range from quick to abominably slow. A turf race is essentially a "quarter horse race" from the bottom of the turn to the finish. Since Beyers are ONLY concerned with final times of a race they are useless for handicapping purposes in this case.

Regards

[hurrikane]

Just to throw in MHO. the reason Beyers(or any speed figs) are poor on 1 turn miles and wet/turf tracks is there are not enough races to compare to make a reliable variant. As for the slow horse method. I believe Beyer assigns a projected speed of a race based on the horses within the race. It isn't likely(though possible) that the fig would increase greatly if all the horses ran slow. It is more likely the faster horses would earn a lower fig. However. The only way you can make sure that the variant is applied correctly is to create your own figures/variants/notes.
Now that would take work. And even though you would have numbers and insight that no one else has..who got into this business to work? :D

[andicap]

I agree with everyone that's been said. Beyers are great contender selectors for me except on turf and ignoring all wet tracks. I've also found the one-turn miles figures inflated.

I find it impossible to believe the DRF speed-TV figs are better than the Beyers. I can use the Beyers to get down to 5 horses very reliably -- with better odds than the ML. I'll use the Beyers when I have time as a check on my primary figures. On dirt fast tracks I'll eliminate any of my horses that aren't in top 5 Beyers.
(I don't use best last, or best of last 3, or best 2 of last 3, but another method.)

[so.cal.fan]

The Beyers are as good as any to help classify the contenders.
That is what we are trying to do, isn't it?
When you have horses coming in from different tracks, especially young horses with few starts.........what else can you go on?
Even people who don't like the Beyers.....hey, you look at them on these type of horses........
I look at them. I check to see what each horse's Beyer is at a specific track, distance, surface. If I think the horse may run back to a good number.....it is a contender......often I feel they will NOT run back.....non contender.
I'm sure any speed rating/classification guide will do the same.
I'm sure a real sharp figure guy could make better numbers, at least for the track you are familiar with.....most are unwilling to do this (including so. cal fan), so we use the Beyers or Bris figures as a guide.

[Amazin]

Jaguar:

Are you really Dan Pope in disguise?Just kidding.You've talked alot about him in various threads including this one.Years ago he sold a system called"the million dollar move".A friend of mine bought it then gave it to me to look at.Im sure you're familiar with it ,but all it was to me was a rip off of Mahl's philosophy on pace.I've scratched him off ever since.You talk highly of him.Is there something you use directly from him that's making you a profit?

[Jaguar]

Amazin,

Years ago, when Dan Pope was active in selling handicapping material, he put together a slender volume containing two-dozen of the most effective trainer moves.

At that time, there was no Mike Nunamaker, no Gordon Pine, and no Dave Schwartz. Comprehensive, meaningful handicapping material was hard to come by.

Dan Pope opened my eyes to the importance of the trainer in the horse racing business. Interestingly, some of those old tried and true strategies are being used today, and profitably- even though the game has changed tremendously since the 80's.

When Dan Pope produced his Stretch Run handicapping method, I found that it confirmed and enhanced facts about closers which I had been able to discover, using another method, that employed differential calculus to measure expended energy at different points during the race-.

Mr. Pope's Stretch Run formula codified and articulated a quick and easy method for finding and rating fast closers at a given distance. But, I should mention that Stretch Run might not be as effective today, due to the flood of chemical enhancements which has washed over the Sport of Kings like a tidal wave.

Also, Dan Pope finally introduced his superb correction factor for the Beyers, which really demonstrated that Andy's numbers are not the best. Today, I would have to say that Cramer's numbers in Fastcapper are probably the most accurate speed ratings available in an expert system. Some of the A.I. discs calculate first rate numbers, as well.

Summing up, I take my hat off to the very smart handicappers and scientists who have helped me learn more about this great game, such as Robert Sinn, Gordon Pine, Dave Schwartz, Dr. Sengbush(even though we never obtained his finalized work), as well as Dick Schmidt, the late great David Brown, the late great Ray Taulbot, who showed me how to measure a horse's consistency, and even to Curtis Martin, who taught me the value of comprehensive A.I. programs in handicapping.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Derek2U]

Cramer? Is he Mark Cramer or Cramer from HDW?
Also .... JAG ..... if i hear about Dan Pope 1 more time without
knowing where I can obtain a copy of his 'Stretch Run" I'm
gonna toss my DRF collection out. So, some1 out there send me
a copy of it or tell me where to buy it.

[andicap]

That's Jim Cramer from HDW. I agree. Very good speed figs.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
That's Jim Cramer from HDW. I agree. Very good speed figs.

And excellent pace figs, too.
Novel concept for making them.

As far ar the debate over what numbers are good or bad,
I think the main thing is how many people really know how to use a speed figure? When I go to the track, I find I am much more likely to see people holding a beer than a racing form.

[Jaguar]

Derek2U,

In September, Barry Meadow was kind enough to post Dan Pope's address:

43 S. 14th St.

Kansas City, KS 66102

Barry says Mr. Pope is still in business, which is great to hear because Dan Pope is a first-rate guy.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

Tom,

saw your post about folks trying to pick winners without having good information and had to pass along this brief episode from OTB, 2 days ago.

THE SCENE: Older man, retired, casual handicapper, frustrated with losing, addressing my friend J. who is a serious and well-informed handicapper-.

Older Man:

"Hey buddy, give me some good picks, will you?"

My Friend J.:

"Sure, I'll give you some good picks, my advice is: 'Bet on winning horses' ".

Older Man:

"Nah, nah, nah, -give me some good picks, I want sure winners".

Summing up, the old man has been going to the track every week for 40 years, doesn't buy a program, let alone a DRF, and wants a stranger to put money in the old man's pocket.

My conclusion: we live in a bizarre world. It must be human nature to want something for nothing. Handicapping is hard work.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Rick]

Jaguar,

I had a similar experience a couple of years ago. I was talking to one of my wife's friends when the subject of my winning at horse racing came up. She (the friend) said she needed a little extra money and asked if I could win her some. This was a person with NO knowledge of horse racing at all thinking that it would be reasonable for me to guarantee her a profit if she just invested a little money. I declined for obvious reasons and explained that it was more like investing in stocks than a sure thing win. That explanation would probably work even better these days, though I can't imagine having three consecutive losing years with a winning horse racing method.

[Speed Figure]

I have an older version of the stretch run program let me know if you would like to have it.;)