FYI

[highnote]

With his permission, I posted Nick Mordin's Breeders' Cup analysis in the selections section if anyone is interested. He writes a Breeders' Cup column annually for Racing Post -- the UK analog of Daily Racing Form.

Nick's specialty is Grade 1 and Group 1 races. He's very knowledgable about the Europeans.

The article is available in the UK only in print, so that is why I posted it on PA. This is the only place you can find it.


Good luck!

[rrbauer]

Thanks John.....good stuff, especially on the Europeans and their tendencies.

[highnote]

Thanks John.....good stuff, especially on the Europeans and their tendencies.


Glad you liked it and glad someone in America besides me gets to see it!

[PaceAdvantage]

Cool...thank you!

[Indulto]

SJ,
What a treat! Thanks for sharing.

[RXB]

I'd just like to know what large chunk of his personal fortune Nick Mordin is going to wager on the Classic.

Because if I ever truly believed that a horse who figures to go off at about 6/1 was going to "annihilate" the field, and that the even money choice was going to be up the track, I'd be laying it down HUGE.

Calling Invasor's Whitney "one of the most impressive displays I've ever seen" is so over the top, it's ridiculous. A slight stumble at the start suddenly turns a nose victory over Sun King into a feat for the ages?

[highnote]

I'd just like to know what large chunk of his personal fortune Nick Mordin is going to wager on the Classic.

Because if I ever truly believed that a horse who figures to go off at about 6/1 was going to "annihilate" the field, and that the even money choice was going to be up the track, I'd be laying it down HUGE.

Calling Invasor's Whitney "one of the most impressive displays I've ever seen" is so over the top, it's ridiculous. A slight stumble at the start suddenly turns a nose victory over Sun King into a feat for the ages?


You may be right. I've seen Nick make some big wagers and lose. He may not always get the outcome he wants, but he does his homework. We'll see tomorrow. Bernadini is tough, but you won't make much money betting him to win. You'll do pretty well if you bet Invasor to win and he actually manages to win.

[RXB]

I'd like to know what homework he's doing to put Invasor several lengths ahead of Bernardini. Must be the new new math.

Invasor already ran once against a seriously talented horse and got whomped. Seriously Talented Horse Number Two is in Saturday's race.

[fastCow]

I'd like to know what homework he's doing to put Invasor several lengths ahead of Bernardini. Must be the new new math.

Invasor already ran once against a seriously talented horse and got whomped. Seriously Talented Horse Number Two is in Saturday's race.

Nick is pretty clear about his reasoning. Bernadini is a talented three-year old who has not really faced much. No one is going to give him an easy pace to play with. Think Lava Man and other tactically fast horses in the race.

As I remember last year, there was a lot of thinking by posters that the late talented three-year old Lost In the Fog was going to dominate the Sprint.

[highnote]

I'd like to know what homework he's doing to put Invasor several lengths ahead of Bernardini. Must be the new new math.

Invasor already ran once against a seriously talented horse and got whomped. Seriously Talented Horse Number Two is in Saturday's race.

RXB,
You might be right. I don't think anyone, including Nick, would be surprised if Bernardini romped home clear by 10. He looks like a monster in some of the workout video I've seen.

Invasor looks like he's a bit slimmer than than Bernardini. But that could be to Invasor advantage. A mile and a quarter at a quick pace is not going to be easy. We'll see if Bernardini has the stamina. It looks to me like Invasor does. I'm not so sure about B.

Lava Man could win this, as could a couple others.

All I know is that it is going to be a fun race to watch.

[RXB]

Nick is pretty clear about his reasoning. Bernadini is a talented three-year old who has not really faced much. No one is going to give him an easy pace to play with. Think Lava Man and other tactically fast horses in the race.

As I remember last year, there was a lot of thinking by posters that the late talented three-year old Lost In the Fog was going to dominate the Sprint.

Lost in the Fog was a pure speed/presser type. Bernardini won the Preakness sitting fourth, four lengths behind the leaders at the second call. Bernardini is not a sitting duck if the pace heats up.

You say Bernardini hasn't beaten much. I say none of the older horses have beaten much, either.

Nick says Invasor shows guts. I say Bernardini doesn't need guts against those horses because he's significantly superior. Compare their respective efforts versus Wandering Boy.

Every horse can lose and Bernardini is no exception, but I can't find a legitimate reason to bet against him. Others can certainly disagree, but I think they should review the evidence again, both on paper and via video. Bernardini is an absolutely superb physical specimen, magnificently bred with a tremendous stride and a seriously impressive set of PP's. Why hunt an elephant with a pellet gun when there are lots of bunny rabbits just a bit farther down the trail?

[JustRalph]

As I remember last year, there was a lot of thinking by posters that the late talented three-year old Lost In the Fog was going to dominate the Sprint.

yeah, it is kind of hard to pick them without a radiological scan of their entire body to try and determine how many football size tumors are developing. I missed that one on the DRF form.

btw, Greg Gilchrist sends his love................. :lol:

[highnote]

Every horse can lose and Bernardini is no exception, but I can't find a legitimate reason to bet against him. Others can certainly disagree, but I think they should review the evidence again, both on paper and via video. Bernardini is an absolutely superb physical specimen, magnificently bred with a tremendous stride and a seriously impressive set of PP's. Why hunt an elephant with a pellet gun when there are lots of bunny rabbits just a bit farther down the trail?

I tend to agree. There are better opportunities. However, if you're a person who likes Invasor and doesn't like Bernie, then, for you, this might be one of those "better situations down the road".

[JPinMaryland]

I think Lost in the Fog might have been sick that day...

[highnote]

I'd like to know what homework he's doing to put Invasor several lengths ahead of Bernardini. Must be the new new math.

Invasor already ran once against a seriously talented horse and got whomped. Seriously Talented Horse Number Two is in Saturday's race.


One word -- INVASOR :D

[RXB]

One word -- INVASOR :D

And no excuses; he won fair and square.

[highnote]

And no excuses; he won fair and square.

Bernie is still a monster -- he's only 3!

I watched the Whitney and wasn't as convinced as Nick that it was an earth shattering performance. However, I did put a lot of weight on this fact about Bernie that Nick pointed out --

"It's asking an awful lot to expect one to produce peak performances both in May and then again right at the end of the year at such distances. Sure Sunday Silence, Unbridled and A.P. Indy all won US Classics in the same year that they took this race. But that was way back in 1989, 1990 and 1992 when the breed had far more stamina than it does now. Since then the twelve American Classic winners that have run in the Breeders' Cup Classic as three year olds have all lost. The last eight didn't even reach the first three. I wouldn't want to bet on Bernardini ending that particular losing sequence."


Given that he was even money, I also wouldn't want to bet on him to end the sequence. Place and Show, though, I felt was a good bet.