Low Exacta Payout Question...

[hbeck]

The chart for the 10th Race at Colonial Downs (Harness) from 10/31/06 is below. Is it just me or is the exacta payout quite low. The winner was 5-1 and second place 6-1. I figured it should pay around $66 for two, not $41.80.

# Win Place Show
7 $13.40 $6.00 $2.60
3 $11.00 $2.40
4 $3.40

$2 Exacta: $41.80

[twindouble]

The chart for the 10th Race at Colonial Downs (Harness) from 10/31/06 is below. Is it just me or is the exacta payout quite low. The winner was 5-1 and second place 6-1. I figured it should pay around $66 for two, not $41.80.

# Win Place Show
7 $13.40 $6.00 $2.60
3 $11.00 $2.40
4 $3.40
$2 Exacta: $41.80

By the sounds of it you had the exacta and was disappointed in the payoff. Actually it should have paid much more than you figured, to the tune of $140. This happens a lot in short fields, ESP when you beat a heavy chalk and get good overlays on two or three contenders in a small exacta and win pool. Be happy with what you got. In other words after those three nothing else had a shot so the exacta pool got creamed and few people wanted to bet against the fav in the win pool, now don't ask me why. I scratch my head all the time on the payoffs, not only that some players are heavy hitters in the exacta pools, myself included, I can't remember the last time I played a $10 exacta. By heavy I mean at least for me.

Good luck,


T.D.

[njcurveball]

By looking at the payouts, I would think that someone made a big bet to win and place on one of the horses NOT in the exacta.

Look at the SHOW prices here. $2.40 and $2.60. The other horse paid $3.40 so he didn't tilt the show pool. Was he the favorite?

Do you have the ML Odds of these 3 horses? Many times the harness pools are very small and any late action can tilt them one way or another.

There are many stories at Chester already. Both with overlays and underlays do to this.

Twindouble is spot on with is price. I like to use the win price times the odds of the 2nd horse to estimate the exacta.

I would be curious to see what the win pool looked like in this race before the last 2 minutes.

I once hit an exacta at Phila Park where the winner paid over $200 (his name was Lord Howard, how could I forget that?) and the 2nd horse paid $40 to place.

The exacta SHOULD have paid well over $4,000, but paid $880. You tend to remember the underlays and spend the overlays. ;)

Jim

[PriceAnProbability]

By looking at the payouts, I would think that someone made a big bet to win and place on one of the horses NOT in the exacta.

Look at the SHOW prices here. $2.40 and $2.60. The other horse paid $3.40 so he didn't tilt the show pool. Was he the favorite?

Do you have the ML Odds of these 3 horses? Many times the harness pools are very small and any late action can tilt them one way or another.

There are many stories at Chester already. Both with overlays and underlays do to this.

Twindouble is spot on with is price. I like to use the win price times the odds of the 2nd horse to estimate the exacta.

I would be curious to see what the win pool looked like in this race before the last 2 minutes.

I once hit an exacta at Phila Park where the winner paid over $200 (his name was Lord Howard, how could I forget that?) and the 2nd horse paid $40 to place.

The exacta SHOULD have paid well over $4,000, but paid $880. You tend to remember the underlays and spend the overlays. ;)

Jim

Perhaps the exacta should have been $880 and the winner shouldn't have paid 99-1 (obviously not).

A big bet on a favorite made late can skyrocket the win prices that way. Was the favorite hammered late to 1-5 or something?

[ryesteve]

Actually it should have paid much more than you figured, to the tune of $140.
How would you come up with an expected payout that high on a 5-1 shot and a 6-1 shot?

[twindouble]

How would you come up with an expected payout that high on a 5-1 shot and a 6-1 shot?

steve, just because a horse paid $11.00 for place that don't make him a 9-2 shot, more than likely he went off 15 to 18-1.

[njcurveball]

Perhaps the exacta should have been $880 and the winner shouldn't have paid 99-1 (obviously not).

A big bet on a favorite made late can skyrocket the win prices that way. Was the favorite hammered late to 1-5 or something?

This was before Simulcasting. The favorite in this race was probably 7-2. No real late money hit back then without being VERY OBVIOUS.

We all just expect every pool to line up and then are happy to tell of the stories where we got huge overlays.

I love betting to show when there is a Bridge Jumper. Getting $30 to show on a 5-1 shot is good for the wallet. :-)

[cj]

Although not to the extent of dog racing, the harness win odds are a poor indicator of a horse's real chances. The pools, outside of WO, The Big M, and a few others, are too small to attract serious money. If you want to get a good idea of a horse's real chances, just check the exacta will pays.

[ryesteve]

steve, just because a horse paid $11.00 for place that don't make him a 9-2 shot, more than likely he went off 15 to 18-1.
Huh? The original post is telling you what they went off at; 5-1 and 6-1

[twindouble]

Huh? The original post is telling you what they went off at; 5-1 and 6-1

Not saying it couldn't happen. Normally a horse don't pay what his off odds are for second place but anything can happen with small pools. I'd like see the actually odds of that race, then you can explain it out. I've seen horses pay more for second and third than the win at the smaller tracks. It's a good idea to check the pools out under those conditions. Just a quick glance at the pool totals can clue you in when time is running out.


T.D.

[Tee]

http://racing.ustrotting.com/card_results.cfm?track_code=Cnl&race_date=2006-10-31&race_type=6

[ryesteve]

I'd like see the actually odds of that race
Ok... 5.70-1 on the winner and 6.70-1 on the 2nd place horse. Still not sure where you're going with this. If you're somehow focused on the other pools, keep in mind they both paid under $3 to show.

[twindouble]

Ok... 5.70-1 on the winner and 6.70-1 on the 2nd place horse. Still not sure where you're going with this. If you're somehow focused on the other pools, keep in mind they both paid under $3 to show.

I'm not going anywhere with it, I thought I explained why such small payoffs can happen at tracks like that. I just added a quick look at the pool totals the last min can help determin what they will pay for second and third. No mystery about that. Anyway, the place price on the second horse was a gift wouldn't you say?


Regards,

T.D.

[hbeck]

The place price on the 2nd horse was certainly a gift.

Thanks for some insight, guys.

[ryesteve]

I thought I explained why such small payoffs can happen at tracks like that.
But I was never asking that. I was asking how you came up with $140 as the expected exacta payout involving a 5-1 shot and a 6-1 shot.

[twindouble]

But I was never asking that. I was asking how you came up with $140 as the expected exacta payout involving a 5-1 shot and a 6-1 shot.

Simple Steve, the parlay of the win payoff and the place payoff, in most cases it's pretty close. Price and Prob agreed on that, that method goes back before I got into racing. That's why I'm thinking about a How to handicapping book for the ELDERLY. :D

T.D.

[ryesteve]

Ah ok... at least now I know where that was coming from. But yeah, most likely it was the small pool that allowed for an inflated place price. Given the low show price, I'd say it was the place pool that was the aberration, not the win pool odds.

[twindouble]

Ah ok... at least now I know where that was coming from. But yeah, most likely it was the small pool that allowed for an inflated place price. Given the low show price, I'd say it was the place pool that was the aberration, not the win pool odds.

That's right, actually what threw you off was I not reading his post thoroughly, he did mention the odds on both horses, I just ran with the place payoff. My goof.


T.D.