PA Breeder's Cup Prediction Market?

[lansdale]

I started thinking about this after reading about the increasing effectiveness of prediction markets (Tradesports et. al.) in elections, and reading the Fayette Stakes thread. (Had it, but from a different angle from those in thread).

Obviously, a number of people here post BC picks, but, given the high quality and diversity of approches of the posters here, it might be interesting and useful to see what a PA members prediction market (or, in English, BC futures) for this year's BC races would look like, although might now be too late to be doable. There seems to me little doubt that this site could produce a much better line than the public line, especially on a day like this.

I know that there are a number of people on this site with a much better idea than myself of how to go about a project like this, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

Cheers,

lansdale

[jfdinneen]

lansdale,

Great idea.

There is a popular open-souce prediction market software package available at SourceForge (http://sourceforge.net/projects/ideafutures) - if PA was willing to set it up, we could probably be trading within 24 hours.

Best wishes,

John

[PlanB]

JF******* Could you please explain the relevance to horse racing?
It's a naive question, I'm sure, but what can we expect from market analyses?
Indulge me.

[DJofSD]

JF******* Could you please explain the relevance to horse racing?
It's a naive question, I'm sure, but what can we expect from market analyses?
Indulge me.

If you can find a copy of "Dr. Z's Beat the Ractrack" by Ziemba, it will 'splain it to you.

[lansdale]

...but judging from the response this idea seems to have fairly limited appeal :). The site you linked looks very interesting though and the software would seem to serve the purpose. I would be very surprised if the line created by such a market didn't provide a number of overlays vs. the BC public line but I realize that for most, handicapping is as much about picking winners personally as it is about making money.

Since you clearly know a great deal about betting exchanges, I'd be interested in hearing anything more you have to say on the subject - including how one might be set up for a site like this one.

Cheers,

lansdale

[PaceAdvantage]

The software I used for the last major contest on this site (vBookie) does allow people to place bets and could be altered to create a line based on the vBucks wagered. I don't know if you were around for the Spring Stakes Contest or got to use vBookie, but it's something to consider.

I was going to set up a for-fun contest using the BC races and vBookie, but I don't think I'll have the time to alter the software by BC day to have it produce a line, but you would be able to see how much was wagered on each horse....

But then I thought I'd be stepping on Bubbles' BC contest which has a monetary prize....

vBookie is a win bet only program at this time. For the 8 BC races, how big of a bankroll would you start everyone with, and would you place any restrictions on bet size?

[jfdinneen]

PlanB,

Assuming I am interpreting both lansdale's intention and PA's clarification correctly, the idea of using a prediction market (think Buy and Sell orders on futures contracts) for the BC races is to produce a more accurate public odds line based on the working assumption that the level of handicapping expertise on this forum is higher than in the general public.

For a more general view on how accurately prediction markets have performed using futures contracts on political, legal, and other markets, you can review the media coverage (e.g., CNBC interviews and research papers) on the InTrade (http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/press/index.html) web site.

Best wishes,

John

[lansdale]

The software I used for the last major contest on this site (vBookie) does allow people to place bets and could be altered to create a line based on the vBucks wagered. I don't know if you were around for the Spring Stakes Contest or got to use vBookie, but it's something to consider.

I was going to set up a for-fun contest using the BC races and vBookie, but I don't think I'll have the time to alter the software by BC day to have it produce a line, but you would be able to see how much was wagered on each horse....

But then I thought I'd be stepping on Bubbles' BC contest which has a monetary prize....

vBookie is a win bet only program at this time. For the 8 BC races, how big of a bankroll would you start everyone with, and would you place any restrictions on bet size?

PA,

I should have realized that there was already a contest underway on the site, and, of course, I don't want to mess with that in any way. Also, I don't want to create more work for you unless you think the interest is there, and that this idea could benefit the site.

As far as the vBookie program you mention, since it can create a line, I think that would work perfectly for this purpose. And I assume we could just normalize the line to include a hypothetical takeout to compare it with the public line, although there are many here who understand the math on this better than myself. I have a feeling the overlays would be there. Even if you were just able to post the win pool, as you mention, those interested could extract the odds for themselves.

I don't know if it's possible, but even with the current contest, it would be interesting to see the final odds created by the betting. Possibly the only drawback is that thirty (the number of contestants) is probably smaller than a representative sample of the handicapping skills of site the should be. Again, I hope that others more knowledgeable on this subject will coment.

Cheers,

lansdale