FIGS & ANGLES

[PlanB]

As of yesterday, Friday, Oct 27th, I decided to DO MY OWN FIGS. I probably
would've never done that, but after replies to my CJ thread, I thought Why Not.
I'm only keen on maybe ~5 tracks, with NY tracks clearly #1, so it seems doable. I enlisted this cool math nerd from work to sort out this stuff, but
I'm wondering this: Does anyone even consider things like, ODDS data?
I mean ODDS in last race vs ODDS today? Or any other ODDS analysis from
past races? And, any analysis from Rider switches, like putting back on a
jock who rode the horse at some earlier time, and is now suddenly back on
the horse?

[BIG49010]

I put the races together like a puzzle, I look at the top three finishers last few races and compare it to what they ran in the race I am projecting. I come up with a variant, and then look at the next race. Assuming no big changes in weather, you will have a feel for what the variant is in no time.


After you do them for a while you will see little things, like maybe a horse going from 5.5 to 7 furlongs generally loose 3 points. Sprint to routes, turf etc, etc, etc..

After a few months you will know where your weak, and where you have an edge on the beyer, bris, etc.. numbers.

Good Luck

[Tom]

Hey Plan"D" - if you need data from back races, you can get a whole year for each track in the WInners Book feture in DRF Simulcast Daily - track, distance, surface, times, class, conditions.....

[PlanB]

Really? Thanks Tom

[Light]

No disrespect intended,but if you are Derek/Kreed,you're not exactly a newbie. But your question regarding speed figs is. You know there is alot allready discussed on this board regarding speed figs,including suggestions by CJ. Do I really need to tell someone like you to do a search or that there is also mountains of literature on this subject?

Personally,I use to make my own track variants,(which I consider essential for speed figs)but stopped years ago cause its just too much work. I've been pretty happy with the $1 Bris data files figures and have found that if you use Brohamers method of DRF/Bris track variant to adjust running times and then use Sartins method to obtain a total pace fig,the #1 ranked horse will make a small positive return betting blind. Add that in a rebate account and I dont think many speed figures can beat that.

[socantra]

I'm wondering this: Does anyone even consider things like, ODDS data? I mean ODDS in last race vs ODDS today? Or any other ODDS analysis from past races? And, any analysis from Rider switches, like putting back on a jock who rode the horse at some earlier time, and is now suddenly back on the horse?

It would seem to me that by adding such factors you would be needlesly complicating and possibly corrupting the process of making figures.

Figures are NOT a full blown handicapping process. They are an attempt to provide numbers that are as accurate as possible to aid you in your handicapping process. Unless you really believe you can successfully quantify all of the possible variables, you are probably better off keeping it as simple as you can.

socantra...

[PlanB]

SoCantra, I was writing about apples & oranges. I already have an idea
on speed figs & they will be "pure" speed figs. I was asking about the
other factors because honestly I think a few "artful" observations might
do some good. DEREK (unscrambled 2 KREED) now, PlanB

[kenwoodallpromos]

Good to see if the horse consistently beats its odds. Tells you the crowd keeps misjudging the certain horse.

[mcikey01]

[QUOTE=PlanB:} Does anyone even consider things like, ODDS data?
I mean ODDS in last race vs ODDS today? Or any other ODDS analysis from
past races? And, any analysis from Rider switches, like putting back on a
jock who rode the horse at some earlier time, and is now suddenly back on
the horse?[/QUOTE]

Sure.....if you focus on reading the PP's from the bottom up, looking for simple but less obvious signs of performance improvement or decline can pay off big-time... But you have to look at the PP and Race chart data from a multi-dimensional, systemic perspective. ...Odds patterns, class, rider and distance changes etc. can be significant when viewed relatively within a total picture....

Classic examples of this kind of analysis can be found in the writings of folks, like Ray Taulbot, Joe"Vertex' Conte, Marc Cramer etc.

I always liked Joe Conte's stuff...Try and get a copy of Joe Conte's "The Art of Handicapping" ...If you are unable to get one, send me a private message and I'll locate a sample of his work for you.

[mcikey01]

I think I'm going to change my username to "Threadkiller" :bang:

[First_Place]

"I'm wondering this: Does anyone even consider things like, ODDS data?
I mean ODDS in last race vs ODDS today? Or any other ODDS analysis from
past races? And, any analysis from Rider switches, like putting back on a
jock who rode the horse at some earlier time, and is now suddenly back on
the horse?"

Yes, the gentleman's name (pseudonym) is Boxcar. He tried educating the mAsses on this board once...

FP

[Dan Montilion]

Plan B,

It seems your are attempting differing numbers. A speed fig for a race and a power rating for each horse. Barry Meadow makes power ratings for all of California T-breds (not sure about Los Al races) and has written on power ratings and the construction of in past issues of his Meadow's Racing Monthly. A listing of past articles and back issues available here...

http://trpublishing.com/

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, the gentleman's name (pseudonym) is Boxcar. He tried educating the mAsses on this board once...

Educating? He spelled out a lot of stuff in those threads....threads by the way, that are still readily available to anyone who wants to read them....

I'm curious though....has anyone come away from those threads (or any post-PA threads that he has written elsewhere) with a consistently healthier bankroll? I'm genuinely curious.....

[First_Place]

PA,

Yes, educating...what else? Okay, call it sharing, informing, or whatever. Btw, those threads (on this site) were merely the tip of the iceberg.

Healthier bankroll? Sure, when used in exotic betting (my field of 'investment'), Boxie's angles point out horses "ready to fire" or "on the improve" that numbers don't. FYI, I use 'em in conjunction with my other tools of the trade.

His Taulbot-based angles are not easy to grasp but they do work--especially helpful with cheap horses (which I focus on).

FP

[PaceAdvantage]

Anyone else? There were lots of people participating in that thread....

[Tom]

I don't play angles, but I have incorporated a lot of the ideas into my own form evaluaitons. I am always on the look out for tells that a horse might be rady to run back to a previous good race, and I get a lot of that thing at the smaller tracks. Hard to put a number on it becasue "it" is not a system to me, just part of my thought process. I do not think I am wasting my time, though.