Fayette Stakes 9th @Keeneland Saturday

[JustRalph]

Anybody got any clue in this one? I am looking at it and it looks very competitive. Is that nasty Keeneland Poly going to make a difference?

Longhots I like........

Kid Grindstone

Host

Wayzata Bay

A.P. Arrow should win it............but who knows..... it is the new Keeneland and I watched some pretty big name horses finish up the track there a few weeks back............

[betchatoo]

I like Andromeda's Hero and Alumni Hall

[Murph]

I like Alumni Hall and Good Reward in this one.

If you will toss the KY Cup Classic, you can make a good case
for these two today and omit Ball Four. I look for an improved
effort from Host today too. All of the contenders seem to
compete well on any type of surface. The track has played
more fairly towards the end of this meeting.

I see A P Arrow too far out of it to make a winning late run. This
will be a good race, I hope we can make it pay!

Thorostats Power selections: 8-5-3-7

Murph

[Robert Fischer]

Hot Eccentric
Not Ball Four

[BIG49010]

Interesting that they say after the race the horse has 7 polytrack wins. The public gets screwed again......

[cj]

Interesting that they say after the race the horse has 7 polytrack wins. The public gets screwed again......

How so? It was right in the PPs.

[Murph]

How so? It was right in the PPs.
I used the TSN quick play PP's for this card and there are NO poly / all weather track codes showing in Eccentrics last 10 races. Just Woodbine workouts over the dirt track - which is now poly. I did not expect this horse to have enough back class to compete for the win in this field.

Murph

[cj]

Formulator PPs provide lifetime running lines. You get what you pay for I guess. I think it is very, very rare to have any interest in the running lines more than 10 back, but it does happen.

I bet him because of his turf lines, but mostly because the little guy liked the horse too! :)

[speedking]

Formulator PPs provide lifetime running lines. You get what you pay for I guess. I think it is very, very rare to have any interest in the running lines more than 10 back, but it does happen.

I bet him because of his turf lines, but mostly because the little guy liked the horse too! :)

CJ is being a bit modest here. His foreign figures placed Eccentric in the top 2 and the primary contender since it was on a poly surface. 2nd off the layoff and 2nd lasix were the added bonus. No sure thing, but well worth a play at 8/1.

speedking

[Indulto]

Formulator PPs provide lifetime running lines. You get what you pay for I guess. I think it is very, very rare to have any interest in the running lines more than 10 back, but it does happen.

I bet him because of his turf lines, but mostly because the little guy liked the horse too! :)Since deferred credit is the order of the day, twindouble had him right on top in response to my own preference for Good Reward.

Surely the subsequent search for synthetic surface specialists in SoCal will spur subsidy for such previously "suppressed" statistics. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Hot Eccentric
Not Ball Four


:lol: I've been taking some time off for the last week to recover from a minor surgery... I saw this thread today, and took a look at the past performances. Then made a very poor selection - considering the race took place the day before.

Ball Four did better than I expected.

[PriceAnProbability]

Formulator PPs provide lifetime running lines. You get what you pay for I guess. I think it is very, very rare to have any interest in the running lines more than 10 back, but it does happen.

It happens quite often!!

Now I see why Cigar paid 4-1 when he beat Holy Bull.

[Robert Fischer]

Other than rebuffing cheap speed, Keeneland's main track is also kind to the turf horse. Eccentric hasn't won a ton lately, however in the past ten races he was entered in some very classy horse races. Worth including. Lifetime poly data is a plus.

[ryesteve]

Just to play devil's advocate, since it appears that Keeneland's polytrack is producing results that are different than what we've seen on other polytracks, why is it a given that a horse with prior success over the stuff would run well at Keeneland?

[Valuist]

It happens quite often!!

Now I see why Cigar paid 4-1 when he beat Holy Bull.

Better not bring that up. Some people don't like to be reminded of the fact that the "Holy" one was anything but in the Donn Handicap.

[speedking]

Ryesteve, It was far from a given that he would take to the surface, but the turf figs I had were good and the last poly number at 9F was superior. At 8/1 I thought it was worth playing; at 4/1 I probably would have passed.

This was also 2nd start off a long layoff and I thought he had a good tightener last out.

speedking

[Valuist]

Just to play devil's advocate, since it appears that Keeneland's polytrack is producing results that are different than what we've seen on other polytracks, why is it a given that a horse with prior success over the stuff would run well at Keeneland?

While TP's Polytrack is not as speed killing as Keenelands, I think there are quite a few horses that have run well over both. At Kee, I would still prefer a horse with solid TP Poly form over a horse with only grass form.

One other thing to remember: TP's meet has far cheaper horses than Keeneland. I think 5000 NW2 and M7500 races are more likely to be won by horses who find themselves on a clear lead than a tough Kee NW2X.

[cj]

It happens quite often!!

Now I see why Cigar paid 4-1 when he beat Holy Bull.

Quite often? That happened like a decade ago. I would say if you bet 100 races a day, you might find one where you want to see more running lines than the last 10.

[JustRalph]

Quite often? That happened like a decade ago. I would say if you bet 100 races a day, you might find one where you want to see more running lines than the last 10.

and that one would be a turf or off track race from way back...........due to the fact that today is raining or a horse is 2nd time turf etc....... I think ten is plenty........most of the time.

[Murph]

Formulator PPs provide lifetime running lines. You get what you pay for I guess. I think it is very, very rare to have any interest in the running lines more than 10 back, but it does happen.

I bet him because of his turf lines, but mostly because the little guy liked the horse too! :)

Well, I didn't want to spend more on the PP's than I was planning to wager on the race. I am happy that you made a winning wager in this contest, though.

It would have been really nice if you had shared that bit of info with us
before the gate opened! :)

Murph

[PaceAdvantage]

Now I see why Cigar paid 4-1 when he beat Holy Bull.

:mad:

[cj]

Now I see why Cigar paid 4-1 when he beat Holy Bull.

Also, Cigar had already won the then NYRA mile on dirt and an allowance race right before that, both right on top of the PP lines. So, I'm not sure how this would have anything to do with him paying 4-1 when he won while Holy Bull was injured.

[BIG49010]

I bet him to win and show that day because of a bridge jumper, and the show paid more then the win. His figs in those two races were better then the Bull was running, I knew he was something special, and then cashed another good ticket on him at OP.