The Math of Early Pace

[karlskorner]

Randy Giles newletter

http://paceappraiser.com/blog/

[Tom]

I read that today. Interesting article.
I'm going to set a report that makes those calc and see if it worth persuing.

[Whirlaway]

Some real world testing:

8 Quirin points:
number of horses: 6013
Chances of making the lead at first call: 45%
Win% when making lead: 24.7%
ROI when making lead: +.08
Win% when not making lead: 12.3%
ROI when not making lead: -31%

7 Quirin points:
Number of horses: 9356
Chances of making lead at first call: 32%
Win% when making lead: 32.1%
ROI when making lead: +28%
Win% when not making lead: 12.8%
ROI when not making lead: -37%

<7 Quirin points
Number of Horses: 175786
Chance of making the lead at first call: 10%
win% when making lead: 27.3%
ROI when making lead: +56%

[mhrussell]

Some real world testing:

8 Quirin points:
number of horses: 6013
Chances of making the lead at first call: 45%
Win% when making lead: 24.7%
ROI when making lead: +.08
Win% when not making lead: 12.3%
ROI when not making lead: -31%

7 Quirin points:
Number of horses: 9356
Chances of making lead at first call: 32%
Win% when making lead: 32.1%
ROI when making lead: +28%
Win% when not making lead: 12.8%
ROI when not making lead: -37%

<7 Quirin points
Number of Horses: 175786
Chance of making the lead at first call: 10%
win% when making lead: 27.3%
ROI when making lead: +56%

This somewhat confirms my gut sense that the calculation method Randy presented in his article gives TOO LOW a probability of making the lead for those E7 and E8 type horses. Still, this is an interesting idea and something to think about and track.

[delayjf]

You might want to pass on your results to Randy.

[Tom]

But I would guess the probabilities would chage depending on the race make up. If you have thee 8 horses and a 7, it's not the same race where you have one 8 and the next best is 5.