Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Message Board

so.cal.fan

10-04-2002, 05:51 PM

If I were a new handicapper, I would want to learn the basics.
I think Quinn's Handicapper's Condition Book gives you that.
It is important for people not to make the mistake of lumping all types of races together, and handicapping them the same.
The new book, as Tom points out is more applicable to today's racing. He uses Beyer par charts, which are as good a method as any for basic classification, in my opinion.
The other books by Quinn, I am not familiar with, as I am not familiar with T. B.'s pace handicapping book.
Another obsure little book, is my personal favorite.
Racing Maxims and Methods of Phittsburg Phil. It was written nearly 100 years ago, is obviously outdated, but holds many, many truths about handicapping and racing that have not changed at all.

GR1@HTR

10-04-2002, 05:56 PM

"What would be the best books to recommend to someone who has never played the horses before but is willing to learn?"

--Don't corrupt your clean brain. Keep it free of outside influences. 90% of stuff in books is rubbish. Do your own research. Find a product that will enable you to learn horse racing and study it yourself. As you come across ideas on this board or other means, test it out and create your own conclusions. Good luck and remember the odds are against you or anybody else who is looking to get involved in this arse beating...It can be done, but it'll cost you hundreds of hours to become successful at this. If you have kids or a wife, you may want to sell them or something before you get started <g>.

Lindsay

10-04-2002, 06:08 PM

GR1 wrote: "Don't corrupt your clean brain. Keep it free of outside influences."

Isn't this board an outside influence?

GR1@HTR

10-04-2002, 06:13 PM

GR1 wrote: "Don't corrupt your clean brain. Keep it free of outside influences."

Isn't this board an outside influence?
====

No
:p

Lindsay

10-04-2002, 06:39 PM

GR1: Got it. If a "novice" reads something in a book, it's an outside influence and probably garbage. But if a novice starts reading the posts on this board, many of which are thrown together in about 15 seconds, it's an inside influence and worth further study. Now what about this "product" the novice should find? Outside or inside?

GR1@HTR

10-04-2002, 07:06 PM

There are lots out there that will allow you to test things out. Just find one that fits your style. Gotta run, bye.

Lindsay

10-04-2002, 07:22 PM

GR1 wrote: "There are lots out there that will allow you to test things out. Just find one that fits your style. Gotta run, bye."

I think dav4463 told his novice to make 775 posts on a message board and then hope like hell no one reads any of them closely.

Tom

10-04-2002, 09:06 PM

If there is nothing here to interest you, and we all so worthless, why bother reading or participating????

Lindsay

10-04-2002, 09:31 PM

Tom: If you think that is a fair characterization of what I wrote, please defend it with a quote from me. I like this site very much. Computer handicapping is not my bag, but there are some very interesting people here. There are also some silly posts here. And there are some disgraceful ones, such as the ones that advocate killing billions of innocent people, and the ones that contain cruel comments about the beautiful, kind, intelligent girl who won the Miss America contest.

keilan

10-04-2002, 11:55 PM

--Don't corrupt your clean brain. Keep it free of outside influences. 90% of stuff in books is rubbish. Do your own research. Find a product that will enable you to learn horse racing and study it yourself. As you come across ideas on this board or other means, test it out and create your own conclusions. Good luck and remember the odds are against you or anybody else who is looking to get involved in this arse beating...It can be done, but it'll cost you hundreds of hours to become successful at this. If you have kids or a wife, you may want to sell them or something before you get started <g>.

Gezz GR1 that's very good and brutally honest, most handicappers have paid a large price to participate in their passion.

smf

10-05-2002, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by so.cal.fan

Another obsure little book, is my personal favorite.
Racing Maxims and Methods of Phittsburg Phil. It was written nearly 100 years ago, is obviously outdated, but holds many, many truths about handicapping and racing that have not changed at all.

SCF,

Your book gets my vote! If someone were to have a new interest in handicapping, Racing Maxims is the one I'd suggest to read. Thanks for recommending it.

GR1,

I understand your position and thoughts. Good comments!

GR1@HTR

10-05-2002, 08:30 AM

A softer version of what I was tryig to say:

Be careful of what you read in the horsey books. Just becuase it is in print doesn't mean it works. If you can get 10% positive out of a book then you did good. Actually the only book I've read that is about 100% on the mark is Steve Fierro's Four Quarters of Horse Racing. Brohammers book is good from a scientific standpoint.

so.cal.fan

10-05-2002, 09:54 AM

GR1:
Your advice is sound. You Texans are straightforward guys!
Most books are not the "gospel truth" and some are just plain wrong and misleading.
Jim Quinn's HC book is a guide to the different types of races.
I believe it sets the stage for a person to do just as you suggest...develop their own methods.

SMF:
Maxims has truths that will never change.
One comment in there was "what is right on paper is very often wrong in the paddock before the race", people don't want to hear this, because it is not convenient and requires many years of study and effort.

GR1:
Steve Fierro's book is great.......but not really for beginners.

Richard

10-05-2002, 11:07 AM

Alot of people would disagree,but for statring off in this game,I recommend AINSLIE'S COMPLETE GUIDE TO THOROUGHBRED RACING by Tom Ainslie.A very good overview book.Just remember,the book is,IMHO,a starting point.

Rick

10-05-2002, 04:52 PM

What a beginner really needs is advice that is unambiguous and easy to understand and gets them to the point of losing only 5-10% so that they see the potential of studying the game more. NONE of the books mentioned would accomplish that goal. In fact, the simple advice to bet early speed horses in every race would be better than reading all of those books. There is absolutely NO need to introduce them to the idea that there are "handicapping geniuses" out there that can do what the rest of us can't do. If I had encountered that early on, I'm positive that I would have quit the game entirely. My role models weren't Sartin disciples and famous handicapping authors, but people who had ideas that would win for me too when I applied the same rules. Sorry if I'm stepping on any toes here but I really feel strongly that you can't teach someone else to win just by showing how good YOU are.

Dave Schwartz

10-05-2002, 07:21 PM

Rick,

That was well-said.

I think the beginning player would be overwhelmed by a Tom Brohamer or James Quinn, while an intermediate player gains a lot being around someone that is "doing it" simply by virtue of knowing that it can be done.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Richard

10-06-2002, 08:40 AM

Rick,
By all means,no offense taken.But respectfully nonetheless,I still stick with my choice because it does provide good overview of the sport.

smf

10-06-2002, 11:05 AM

[QUOTE]Originally posted by so.cal.fan
[B]
SMF:
Maxims has truths that will never change.
One comment in there was "what is right on paper is very often wrong in the paddock before the race", people don't want to hear this, because it is not convenient and requires many years of study and effort.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCF,

That book has some great wisdom for all levels of players, doesn't it? Smith covered about every aspect someone needs to get a good understanding of what's going on.

Rick

10-06-2002, 11:29 AM

Richard,

I think your choice would be the best IF it were up to date. The only version I've seen would be very misleading in some areas, especially the value of recency.

ranchwest

10-07-2002, 02:08 PM

There are a number of people on this board who either earn a living from handicapping or earn enough money to make a difference in their pocket books, just off of handicapping.

A lot of authors make their money off of books.

Karl once made a statement on this board, something to the effect of, "Don't take investment advice from someone who has a job."

Now, you figure out whether these 15 seconds of thought people are handing out are worth considering.

ranchwest

10-07-2002, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Lindsay
Tom: If you think that is a fair characterization of what I wrote, please defend it with a quote from me. I like this site very much. Computer handicapping is not my bag, but there are some very interesting people here. There are also some silly posts here. And there are some disgraceful ones, such as the ones that advocate killing billions of innocent people, and the ones that contain cruel comments about the beautiful, kind, intelligent girl who won the Miss America contest.

I stand by my statements on Miss America.

Lindsay

10-07-2002, 03:33 PM

Ranchwest: I stand by my comment about your anonymous post. If you're proud of it, hang it on your refrigerator.

As for your other post, how many people on this board make a living by handicapping? Two? How many of them have written books? How many of them have recommended books? How many people post here?

ranchwest

10-07-2002, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Lindsay
Ranchwest: I stand by my comment about your anonymous post. If you're proud of it, hang it on your refrigerator.

As for your other post, how many people on this board make a living by handicapping? Two? How many of them have written books? How many of them have recommended books? How many people post here?

It was not an anonymous post. I'll hang my comment on my refrigerator before I hang a picture of Miss America!

As for advice, do what you want. Obviously, you're going to anyway.

Probably the best advice you could get is to loosen up.

dav4463

10-07-2002, 03:51 PM

Thanks for all the replies. Maybe I will tell my friend to read the posts and see if horseracing is something he really wants to get into! I kind of envy the guy myself. I remember when I didn't know a thing about horseracing, but got goose bumps when I heard the bugle call of my first live horserace (even if it was at tiny Trinity Meadows). There's something about just starting to learn the game that is exciting. I gave him a list of books that were recommended and loaned him a few of my own and told him to listen to the advice of Ranchwest that a lot of them sell books rather than bet horses so learn what you can, but don't accept anything as an absolute because there is no such thing in racing. Still though there are a number of books out there to learn the basics. My first one was Ainslee's book and then I moved on to Steve Davidowitz and Mark Cramer. Then you see all the contradictions from different authors which makes it such a crazy game to play! The main thing I told him was to stay away from system sellers who promise riches. I think that is the best advice anybody could get.

Rick

10-07-2002, 04:42 PM

Lindsay,

I don't know how many here are "making a living by handicapping" but there are a lot of winning players. I think there are very few handicapping authors who are winning players if they play according to the advice in their books. So you're much better off listening to what's said here than reading a book. As to how a "pro" is defined, I think there was a long discussion about that here once and everyone seems to have a different definition. There are better ways to categorize players such as novice, experienced, winning, expert. Whether one is making all of their income from horse racing is not all that relevant.

smf

10-07-2002, 04:52 PM

David,

I didn't want to post at length on this, and I won't.

If I were to do it all over again, I would learn about HORSES first.

Then, go on to a handicapping style that fits his/ her preference.

Bonnie Ledbetter's book is one I read years ago. It was a big help. Trillis Parker's book and tapes are excellent as well and I wish I'd read and viewed them years ago.

Good luck.

dav4463

10-07-2002, 05:47 PM

Where can you get Bonnie Ledbetter and Trillis Parker's books?

Dick Schmidt

10-07-2002, 06:29 PM

Since I do make my living at the races, I thought I'd chime in with a different look at racing. If your friend wants to invest in a fascinating new hobby, then most of the advice and books mentioned here are fine. He'll spend a little money and have a lot of fun, just like any other hobby. One of my hobbies is photography. I spend a lot of money on cameras and film and memory cards, gadgets and really big hard drives, yet have sold exactly two pictures (total $75) over the years. Fun, but not profitable, just like most people's experience at the races.

If your friend is serious about starting a horse racing business, then he needs to take a business-like approach. First off, find a good starting place. I would recommend Tom Brohamer and "Modern Pace Handicapping" as a good place to start. Yes, it is very advanced for a beginner, but if you stick to beginner's level stuff, you'll never make any progress. Maybe get that little booklet from the Racing Form about how to read the PP's, but then get serious. I hesitate to recommend my own book, but "Pace Makes the Race" is a good adjunct to MPH. It should be, both the authors learned most of what they know from Tom Brohamer.

Next, find a winning player to model, either in person or by mail. Look more at his behavior rather than his techniques. Ask questions, then test all the answers. Find a procedure that works for you (shows at least a small profit) and then try new things (on paper) to see if you can add to your arsenal. Once you find some things that work, keep doing them forever, no matter how boring they become. Expect to play on paper for at least 6 months before you make your first bet.

Invest in your business. A computer with a fast internet connection is almost a necessity in today's world. Check out half a dozen or more computer programs and see if they actually contribute to the bottom line, or just give you more numbers to play with. Be prepared to spend several hundred dollars on each program and then an additional few hundred on data each month. When you get one that helps, it will all be worth it. Consider it "rent" on your "store." Also get every book on racing you can find and read them. Don't jump from method to method, but look to see if you can add something to your reparatory. This is all part of starting a business, and should be considered a legit business expense, just like a stove is in a new restaurant or shoes in a shoe store.

Last, treat your new business like a business. Put in at least an 8 hour day and work at it 6 days a week. If you already have a job, when you are starting a new business you need to work "immigrant hours." putting in the time and shorting every other aspect of your life, including sleep until you make enough to give up your "day job." Handicap every race you possibly can, skipping nothing. Of course, bets are made on paper until you start showing a profit, but don't specialize. You never know when you'll find something that works. Get a set of "books" to keep track of how you do. I recommend "Bettor Keep Track" from www.Netcapper.com.

To the extent that you treat racing as a game, a hobby, it will repay you as a hobby. You'll have fun, and if you enjoy solving puzzles you're set for life in every way but financially. To the same extent that you treat racing as a business, it will reward you like any other small business: you'll make a living but won't get rich. You need to accept that this approach will take a lot (all?) of the joy out of racing and turn it into a job; but that was the goal all along, wasn't it?

Dick

dav4463

10-07-2002, 08:53 PM

Dick, Thanks for the great advice. Not only for my friend just starting out, but for me as well. I need to get more serious at my own betting. I realized a long time ago that just being a good handicapper is not going to put money in my pocket. I've just gone back and reread some of my older handicapping books that I learned on and seem to find something new every time. I agree that Pace Makes the Race is a great book, just realized that you wrote it! I also have Tom Hambleton's Form points. Do you still use those? I amended them somewhat, but use them every day.

smf

10-07-2002, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by dav4463
Where can you get Bonnie Ledbetter and Trillis Parker's books?

David,

Here's the link for Parker and Ledbetter's materials.

http://www.gamblersbook.com/

I still think that the best FIRST capping book for anyone is what So Cal fan suggested. Everything a beginner needs to know is in there (***horses***, pace, jockeys, trainers, owners, drugs, track bias, a day's work at the track, etc). I just read it last month and I'd recommend it to anyone.

dav4463

10-07-2002, 10:04 PM

Thanks for the link and all the great replies.....

Tom

10-07-2002, 11:34 PM

Even if you don't use the numbers from the book, there is a wealth of general handicapping information in there.
And on the advice of some of you here, I bought Horseracing Logic by Glendon Jones and just started reading it this weekend-it is a very good book.

Lindsay

10-08-2002, 03:32 AM

Ranchwest: I called it "anonymous" because I don't think Ranchwest is your real name. Here's what you wrote: "The winner is so ugly they'll have to hold out a piece of chicken to figure out which end they're dealing with." Can we please let this be the last word on the subject?

Rick: I imagine that handicapping in order to pay the bills is much tougher. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. I defer to Dick Schmidt on the value of racing books. That was one hell of a post by him.

Dick Schmidt

10-08-2002, 03:33 AM

Dave4463,

Wholeheartedly agree that "Pace Makes the Race" is a great book. Every handicapper should have several copies.

As for "Form Points," I haven't looked at it in several years, so I don't remember the fine points. Please remember that this book was written without a database and represents Tom's ideas on form. There are no hard numbers to back anything up. That's how it was done way back then. Some things have changed since then.

I don't think Form Points is a bad starting point, but I wouldn't treat it as the last word in Form either. For a while, several programs included them, but they seem to have fallen from favor. Naturally, that makes them more valuable to those who continue to use them.

Dick

ranchwest

10-08-2002, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by Lindsay
Ranchwest: I called it "anonymous" because I don't think Ranchwest is your real name. Here's what you wrote: "The winner is so ugly they'll have to hold out a piece of chicken to figure out which end they're dealing with." Can we please let this be the last word on the subject?

Hey, you're the one who brought it up. Of course, you would have us all censored, right?

How is "Lindsay" any more a real name than "Ranchwest"?

Rick

10-08-2002, 11:05 AM

Lindsay,

Of the winning players I've known only one derived 100% of his income from horse racing. You might be surprised to find that most of those that you think are doing that now really have substantial income from other sources such as pensions, investments, book sales, seminars, newsletters, mail order businesses and even the income of a spouse. It's worth more money to have a reputation as a winning handicapper than it is to BE a winning handicapper. Exactly the same thing is true in other forms of investment such as the stock market, sports betting, poker, and blackjack. Nothing new there. Beware of those who have a history of promoting themselves at your expense. Their highest priority is not to help you to win money. It always amuses me that when people mention names of who they think the "pros" are, they always name someone who's written a book. The only people we really know for sure about is ourselves and close friends. The rest of it is just a matter of whether you believe what someone is saying. If you're a winning player yourself, you can check their statements against what you know is true, but if you're a novice you'd be at a severe disadvantage.

Lefty

10-08-2002, 12:10 PM

There are more worthwhile things written these days in racing than there were in the 50's. Taulbot was about it then; yet I read everything I could get my hands on. Read everything and then verify what's good or bad for yourself.
Commonsense Handicapping by Mitchell a good place to start as any, I think.

Lindsay

10-08-2002, 02:45 PM

Ranchwest wrote: "Hey, you're the one who brought it up. Of course, you would have us all censored, right?"

This is idiotic but not surprising. No. You get to make cruel comments about a young girl, and I get to make comments about your cruel comments. Free speech at its very best. James Madison would be proud.

"How is "Lindsay" any more a real name than "Ranchwest"?

See above. You made the cruel anonymous comments.

Lindsay

10-08-2002, 03:03 PM

Rick,

I like to think I can read a book (or a post) and tell whether what I've read is BS. What do you have to say to all the people on this board who claim they have learned from books? Should they try to unlearn what they've learned and then memorize all of Ranchwest's posts?

trying2win

10-08-2002, 03:14 PM

Thanks Dick Schmidt for your wise advice. That's what I've found out too. You have to put in the time, study and effort and paper bets before you become proficient, knowledgeable and hopefully profitable at the great game of thoroughbred handicapping. I'm guessing that a lot of the successful handicappers who are showing a long term profit at this game, had to go through many months maybe even years of setbacks (emotional and financial) before they succeeded. But along with all the important studying etc. to gain knowledge as mentioned above, you still have to ask the question, is what I'm doing producing a long term profit? If not, I think you have to try a different approach.
It seems everyone has their own favorite methods of playing the ponies. After many failures with handicapping the traditional handicapping ways, I've found out that doing something unorthodox (along with some logic) is working out best at betting on the thoroughbreds now. I think what is best for an individual raceplayer to incorporate, is to employ what works best for them to produce that elusive long term positive ROI.
That's why I have now come to appreciate and like the writings of authors like Mark Cramer. I like the way Mark Cramer will explore unorthodox racing angles and test them out to see if they work. I've noticed that some racing methods and angles work O.K. at some racetracks and not others.
So, the main way I bet now is just betting mainly a few angles (some self-discovered) and using some racing knowledge and logic with these angles. In addition, I employ certain minimum morning line odds. I do it that way, because sometimes, for example when you are betting three tracks in one day, I don't have time to study each online toteboard for minimum odds, so the morning line odds work just fine for me. After I download the past performances from TSN, for my chosen tracks, I can then
scour the programs for some possible plays.
Finally, I like to keep track of my bets on a computer spreadsheet program, to see how I'm doing financially with each racing angle.

ranchwest

10-08-2002, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by Lindsay
Rick,

I like to think I can read a book (or a post) and tell whether what I've read is BS. What do you have to say to all the people on this board who claim they have learned from books? Should they try to unlearn what they've learned and then memorize all of Ranchwest's posts?

What is it with your personal attacks? Does the fact that I don't like Miss America on the Off Topic section have anything at all to do with my posts about horse racing?

Do you have anything specific to say about my posts about horse racing or are you just going to rant and rave because you have decided on a personal vendetta against me?

You want to talk horses? OK, let's talk horses. Is there something I'm off base about? Tell me. Specifically, where have I erred?

I never said don't read books and listen to me. The gist of my statements was that there are authors who have their own agenda and it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with helping people to win. And, there are people on this board who can help people.

If you want to talk Miss America, go to the Off Topic section. If you want to talk horses, this is the place.

And, your comments continue to be just as anonymous as mine, so knock it off.

Dick Schmidt

10-08-2002, 06:04 PM

Trying2,

Sounds like you are on the right track, especially with the record keeping. I'm not sure there IS a long term solution to racing, you need to keep changing things to keep up.

Mark is a wonderful guy to emulate if your mind works in the same peculiar fashion as Mark's. My first experience with handicapping was a class taught by Mark at LACC. He taught me to read the Racing Form and also that handicapping could be more than guesswork. I helped him do a research project that showed me just what kind of work ethic was needed to prosper in racing, and we validated an angle that I used for three years while I was learning the business. However, I could never play like he does, with all his angles and trainer stats. We each need to find someone to look to who's approach fits with our personality and not try to force ourselves into a mold just because that person seems to win.

Good luck.

Dick

ranchwest

10-08-2002, 06:07 PM

Dick,

You have a good point. I have a close racing pal who is quite different from me in his approach. We just find what the other is doing interesting and remain encouragers. I guess whatever makes it all enjoyable is a plus.

Lindsay

10-08-2002, 06:41 PM

Ranchwest: Now that you have come out against personal attacks, I can say that I will not add to this string.

so.cal.fan

10-08-2002, 08:02 PM

Rick writes:
" It always amuses me that when people mention names of who they think the "pros" are, they always name someone who's written a book. The only people we really know for sure about is ourselves and close friends".

I agree with Rick, that just because someone writes a book, sure doesn't mean they are winners.
In the handicapping book writer's defense:
Most good writers take pride in their work.
They try to give you their best shot.
Many lifelong handicapper's that haven't been as successful as they would have liked, write a book to justify all their time spent.
I have known more than one of these types. It is sort of sad.
There are many ways to enjoy handicapping and betting.
There isn't "one" best method. Most sincere people have some good ideas. I like to read them and decide if I can use the idea or improve on it. It is part of the game.
I respect every sincere person's opinion.

Dave Schwartz

10-08-2002, 08:16 PM

You know the old adage, "Them that can do, and them that can't teach?" Well, the truth is that some of the best teachers in many fields were people that could not do it themselves.

One example that comes to mind is Charlie Lau, proably the greatest hitting coach baseball has ever known. Himself a mediocre hitter (.255 lifetime batting average), he revolutionized the sport by documenting a knew approach to hitting. He was the coach that lifted George Brett to success in his third season in baseball.

Colleges and universities are famous for great teachers in law and medicine that were never tremendous in the O.R. or court room.

I don't know why a good book written by a non-winner has to be regarded with such disdain.

Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

ranchwest

10-08-2002, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Lindsay
Ranchwest: Now that you have come out against personal attacks, I can say that I will not add to this string.

I've come out for the rules of this forum.

Aussieplayer

10-08-2002, 11:29 PM

Mark (Cramer) is a writer & handicapper I respect & appreciate (amongst many).
I find (for example) the style of Dick Schmidt & Mark Cramer to be poles apart - and this tells me something - personal style is something you must consider as a serious topic.
A couple of constants still hold though: record keeping, and betting value. (Yes, Dick is a value player whether he tells you so or not!) :D

So, in response to the original post of best book for a novice: be WIDELY read. You never know what is going to spark for YOU. Something you might take further than the initial author etc.
Find your own style & keep records.

Lastly, expect to change your methods as:

(a) your records show you things you didn't know before, & you improve generally, and
(b) as the game slowly but surely changes.

One thing I do know, you have to find what works for YOU, and (probably), it will need to contain at least SOME sort of twist from what everyone else is doing.

Cheers
AP

smf

10-09-2002, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
You know the old adage, "Them that can do, and them that can't teach?" Well, the truth is that some of the best teachers in many fields were people that could not do it themselves.

One example that comes to mind is Charlie Lau, proably the greatest hitting coach baseball has ever known. Himself a mediocre hitter (.255 lifetime batting average), he revolutionized the sport by documenting a knew approach to hitting. He was the coach that lifted George Brett to success in his third season in baseball.

Colleges and universities are famous for great teachers in law and medicine that were never tremendous in the O.R. or court room.

I don't know why a good book written by a non-winner has to be regarded with such disdain.

Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave,

Enjoyed your opinion of "coaches" and using the late, great Charlie Lau as an example.

However, he never wrote a book on hitting that any Major leaguer is quoted as saying that THAT BOOK is the reason why he's in "The Show". Lau's skills as a coach was only successful in a hands on, face to face approach. Not in print.

Personally, I'm waiting for the handicapping version of the Ray Milland miracle (baseball movie> Happens Every Spring) to make me millions , LOL

Rick

10-09-2002, 11:21 AM

The kind of handicapping book that would be useful to a beginner would explain about racing and it's various factors, and provide large sample statistics about the effectiveness of the various factors. Quirin's first book would be OK except that it's too out of date. A combination of Ainslie or Quirin with studies by Nunamaker or Sports Stat would probably be about the best you could do. You read Ainslie/Quirin to get general knowledge but ignore their advice about the effectiveness of various factors (yes Lindsay, you DO have to unlearn some things). Then you look at Nunamaker/Sport Stat to learn that most factors aren't going to help your ROI much. Any newer studies you can find, including some done here, could supplement that.

By that time the novice should have learned that early speed is important, recency is not so important any more, and that you can't win by just using simple single factors. Next, you have the guy pick one factor that loses less than 10% in large sample studies and verify that at the track he plays. Then he looks for another factor that, when combined with the first, increases his ROI to maybe -5%. The easiest way to find the second factor is to just check all races that rank 1st in both factors and see if it improves ROI. Once found, he would need to experiment a little to find the right weighting for the two factors. At this point, he should be able to win if he's very careful about selecting his overlays but won't play very many races. If he can then find a third factor that gets him close to break even on all top rated horses, he should be able to get good overlays in about 40% of the races. That should be all that is necessary to win. With some additional study of money management he should be better than most self-proclaimed "pros".

Above all, don't let the novice read ANY books that imply that you can win 70-80% of the time betting two horses in every race. I've seen more than one experienced player nearly ruined by wasting a lot of time trying to achieve the impossible. If the guy has been exposed to those kinds of claims, all you can do is have him track the win % of published handicappers and maybe look at Nunamaker's stats on trying to achieve the ultimate handicapping method.

If I had been able to follow this course, I could have eliminated at least 90% of the time that it took for me to learn how to win. There are other ways to win of course, but I think this is the way to play the largest number of races profitably.

so.cal.fan

10-09-2002, 11:31 AM

Good post, Rick.
I agree.;)

GR1@HTR

10-09-2002, 11:31 AM

Ahhh...Rick you laid out the path I followed....
Think this is my 3rd or 4th year playing the ponies. Started a few months before PA started his board so when ever that is....But the book I found most useful early on was Quirins Winning at the Races. Got involved in a software program that enables you to test data like Nunamaker and Quirin put out. Took an Access class to be a better handicapper where as all the other students in the class were trying to be better worker bees at their day jobs. Found factors that produced -10ish ROI and tried to whittle it down from there.
Ok, enuf for now, back to the salt mines...

ranchwest

10-09-2002, 11:43 AM

I, too, agree that Quirin is a great place to start. For me, the biggest thing was not to learn what he learned, but how he learned it. Learn the balance of IV and ROI. Chart your own course. Learn the math and the horses, then learn to understand how the horses and their connections impact the math.

Dave Schwartz

10-09-2002, 12:06 PM

Quirin! Absolutely!

I have worn out so many copies of that book over the years that I stock them from used book stores! No joke!

Best book ever written for anyone that asks the question, "What factors are important?"

And remarkably, many of the factors still hold up.

Dave Schwartz

10-09-2002, 12:09 PM

Dave,

Which of his books are you talking about...I'm a big fan as well!

CJ

Dave Schwartz

10-09-2002, 12:28 PM

CJ,

Winning at the Races, 1979.

Dave

10-09-2002, 01:19 PM

Dave,

Believe it or not, I've never read that one. I still own Handicapping: State of the Art and use it til this very day.

I'm going to search around for it now.

CJ

Rick

10-09-2002, 02:21 PM

Come to think of it, Quinn (not Quirin) had another interesting book called "The ABC's of Thoroughbred Handicapping" with each chapter in it covering a different aspect of handicapping and a test at the end. That one might be useful too if it's still available anywhere.

I didn't mention databases because its unlikely that a novice would want to follow that path, but if you have the interest and aren't overwhelmed by such things that would be the best approach of all to find out which things work TODAY. I worked for about 25 years with computers and I know that just about anyone can handle databases if they're willing to invest some time in learning it. BUT, most people get frustrated pretty quickly if they don't catch on immediately. The same thing is true of the mathematics that is useful for handicapping. In my case, horse racing and sports betting were major motivations for me to learn both at an early age.

10-09-2002, 03:58 PM

Rick,

I found it at Amazon.com used, reasonably price IMO ($19+).

CJ

Rick

10-09-2002, 04:42 PM

CJ,

It was written in 1988, so it may be a bit out-of-date in some areas, but you get a combination of Quinn's ideas and those of others all in one book.

rrbauer

10-09-2002, 10:09 PM

Whatever book gets you on the trail towards winning money; and, not winning races, is the book that you should keep under your pillow for the rest of your life. In the long run, nothing else counts.

Dick Schmidt

10-10-2002, 03:49 AM

RR,

"Whatever book gets you on the trail towards winning money; and, not winning races, is the book that you should keep under your pillow for the rest of your life. In the long run, nothing else counts."

I very much disagree. That was one of the points I was trying to make in my previous post. Not everyone is in racing to make money. The vast majority just want to have fun and not lose too much. Good for them, that is a perfectly legitimate goal. One of the sad facts of racing is that when the money becomes really important (like to pay rent and buy food) much of the joy and pleasure goes out of the process and it becomes a job. Those who travel down that path should know what they are letting themselves in for. Those who chose to keep it light and fun should not be seen as having a less valid goal.

Dick

Rick

10-10-2002, 11:30 AM

Dick,

I have to agree with you. Racing makes a better hobby than a job, but if you're a winning player it also makes a very good investment. I'd rather have a fixed income to cover my basic expenses, since it seems quite common for annual racing profits to vary by a factor of two or three. Still, it's way more consistent than the stock market.

I try to make it both an investment and a hobby by being very businesslike grinding it out on a daily basis with a bankroll, and then occasionally going to the track with money set aside for entertainment. When I'm doing that, my focus is on having a good time and not so much on the bottom line. I tend to bet more exotics and socialize a lot. If I have a big win, I use the money to do something else that's fun. In fact there have been many times when I made bankroll bets over the phone on the same track that I played live for fun that day.

keilan

10-10-2002, 11:36 AM

Dick -- reminder the thread is titled " best book for a novice " Most people who spend the money and effort to read handicapping books are of a mind-set of going to the track and increasing their likelihood of making a few bucks. I would think if most players didn't arrive at the track with hope and opportunity to win they would eventually quit participating.

I also think the vast majority believe they are pretty good handicappers and if the jocks/trainers weren't PLAYING GAMES etc. they would have cashed that big pick 3/4 ticket. How many times have you heard someone say after the race, Geez and I loved that horse, but he doesn't have a dime on the horse. Lots of players behave in this way because it allows they to continue to play. It translates for them something like this " I'm a pretty good handicapper just can't bet worth a dam ".

I can't speak for anyone else but when I had very good years at the track, believe me I derived much pleasure and joy from it. It's the losing years that suck!

Modern Pace Handicapping is still my favourite handicapping book to date.

Rick

10-10-2002, 12:03 PM

In case anyone is interested, here's some simulated annual incomes for 1200 bets per year of $100 using actual results selected randomly.

21380
27100
19060
30530
28550
28570
21610
16772
34820
18670
13680
21600
13240
40030
19450
11404
32630
16400
21450
14690

The overall average is 22581 but the annual amounts ranged from 11404 to 40030, a ratio of about 3.5. There were some periods where you would probably believe you were losing your edge if you had these results, but in fact these were all based on exactly the same data.

rrbauer

10-10-2002, 01:19 PM

Dick Schmidt wrote:
I very much disagree. That was one of the points I was trying to make in my previous post. Not everyone is in racing to make money. The vast majority just want to have fun and not lose too much. Good for them, that is a perfectly legitimate goal. One of the sad facts of racing is that when the money becomes really important (like to pay rent and buy food) much of the joy and pleasure goes out of the process and it becomes a job. Those who travel down that path should know what they are letting themselves in for. Those who chose to keep it light and fun should not be seen as having a less valid goal.

The "vast majority" just want to have fun and not lose too much?

Is this why, when racing lost its monopoly on gambling, and was no longer the only game in town, that racetrack grandstands started looking like ghost towns? And, to counter that, racing developed networks of OTB and simulcast centers designed to provide more convenient access for horse "players". And, as attendance waned at those venues, telephone wagering came into being, again to provide another convenience for horse "players". And, to utilize the vacant space, racetracks are now homes for slot-machine parlors and rock concerts.

It's true that there are some folks who like to spend a day at the races and watch the horsies run around the oval and others who are taken by the pageantry of the presentation. They are not the "vast majority". And, I doubt that they are very interested in reading books about handicapping regardless of who wrote it and what angle(s) the author is promoting.

Aussieplayer

10-10-2002, 08:51 PM

Rick,

Interesting! Please explain though - I assume that you had to assume a certain edge, or ROI to come up with that? If so, what was it?

Also, I assume that win rate would impact, even with the same ROI? Example, a 10% ROI on a longshot method with a 15% hit rate would no doubt have more variance than a 10% ROI on a method that hit at a (say)30% clip?

Cheers
AP

Zaf

10-10-2002, 09:00 PM

I would reccomend Ainslie or Davidovitz.

ZAFONIC

Suff

10-10-2002, 11:24 PM

I'm not sure if its for a Complete Begginner.. But after you get your feet wet.. a must read is Steven Davidowitz's

Betting Thoroughbreds...
"A Professionals Guide for the Horse Player"

Borders Books stocks it

Anything by Andy Beyer is worth the price as well...... Good luck and remember... In this racket.. Hitting at 15% puts you near the top. It takes Years and lots of Time to get anything like "NEAR GOOD" in this business.

BigDumbBob

10-11-2002, 08:48 AM

Next, find a winning player to model, either in person or by mail. Look more at his behavior rather than his techniques. Ask questions, then test all the answers.
D Scmidt

This is excellent advice IMO. When Quinn came to town hawking a Video of his (years ago) I made a point to be there just to hang around afterward and pick his brain & get a gut level sense of how he approached the races.(NLP was big at the time.)
One of the 1st things I asked him was how 'd he start, he said he was introduced to handicapping by a guy that made his living at the track. He never mentioned that in any of his books, but I think it is key.
Most people I know (& I mean trackrats) just do not believe anyone can make money at the track.Many get seriously bent out of shape if you try to tell them otherwise. Having a winning 'capper right in front of you does wonders for your mindset - if you are committed to becoming a winner.
When I tell people I'm a winner (not a pro I just come out in the black MOST years - after expenses) & they always ask how I do it. After I tell them about all the preparation that goes into my play they usually say ,with extreme disdain, something like" I'd be a winner too if I went through all that. I already have a job!"
It doesn't seem like a job to me though. Most jobs require playing politics or kissing a$$ or someone gets promoted ahead of you for any number of reasons that have nothing to do with merit. But in handicapping if you do right you get paid.Period. That makes it a satisfying hobby.
Two thoughts for the novice regardless of method you use :
Stay objective. No matter what happens out there - no excuses. Tough beats are a part of the game. Like the man said, "There is no crying in racing."

Rick

10-11-2002, 04:32 PM

AP,

That was based on a sample of 561 races from two tracks with 27% winners and 23% profit. One of the tracks has 29% wins and fewer longshots, but the other has a higher profit. Longshot methods (under 20% wins according to my definition) are a much wilder ride than that of course. Before about 5 years ago, most of my methods fell into that category, and I'm positive now that I gave up too early on several good ideas because of that. What Dick is doing is probably the best way of ensuring relatively stable annual profits. High win % and as many plays as possible. I can't do the two horse thing, but I could play a lot of tracks if I had more ambition.

Come to think of it, there should be an analytical solution to the problem based on the standard deviation of the payoffs. If s is the standard deviation and n is the number of plays, the standard deviation of average payoff after n plays should be s divided by the square root of n. For my data, s = 6.004887, average payoff is 2.465241, and n = 1200. So that gives me an annual standard deviation of 0.173346. That would give average payoffs between 2.291895 and 2.638587 68% of the time (about 14.6 to 31.9 percent profit). With $120,000 bet ($100 * 1200), that would be $17520 to $38280. It looks like that's pretty close to what happened in the simulation except that the average should have been higher, like about $27914. If I ran another 20 years it probably would be higher.

Dick Schmidt

10-11-2002, 07:44 PM

BigBob,

I find two frequently encountered mindsets about racing to be a puzzle. First is the one you mentioned, that no one can win. If you mention that you are a winner, you are met with open hostility. I've found this to even be true on this and other BBs as well. When I mentioned my ROI in a post once, I ran into a sh** storm of criticism, as have others who mention that they win regularly. The basic idea seems to be "I can't do it, so it can't be done!"

Even more incomprehensible are all the people who are racing regulars yet believe that racing is as fixed as pro wrestling. You need look no further than a current thread called "Which is the most crooked track?" on this board to see this attitude in full cry. I always want to ask these people "When are you leaving? You're not going to stay and play a fixed game, are you?" Again, when you mention that you don't think racing is fixed, you are treated like a simpleton. When you say you ignore the whole cheating thing and still win, you are many times called a liar.

Strange bunch, handicappers.

Dick

Rick

10-11-2002, 07:52 PM

AP,

I found out why my average was low. I had previously made a run with payoffs limited to $42 (20-1) and forgot to take that out. Since my actual results had an $81.80 and a $57.20 payoff that would have affected my ROI. Nevertheless, with a standard deviation in annual income of about $10,400, one could expect highly variable results.

Rick

10-11-2002, 08:15 PM

Dick,

I think one of the reasons people think there is cheating at a particular track is that ideas that worked for them at other tracks just happen to not work there. Since, there's no law that I know of that says that all racetracks have to be the same, I say either don't play that track or change your method to something that works there. In fact, the more unusual the track is, the more profitable it is for those who are willing to do the research.

The other problem you mention has to do with people having been bombarded by false information from so many sources over the years about what is really possible. Some of these people have tried hundreds of systems touted by others with incredible claims, and none of them have worked. So, if they haven't done much research on their own, when you tell them the truth, they assume that you're like all of the others.

Another thing. Even some legitimate handicapping books have made claims that are unattainable by most. The typical thing is to introduce a method, such as TPR, and then the rest of the book will talk about how successful some of the people giving advice are at betting horses. The implication is that a novice could calculate these ratings and do equally as well. I'm sure that's not whats said literally if you read every word carefully, but that's what most people assume. So, when they calculate their TPR numbers and lose 10% they think that everyone involved in writing the book is a liar.

I'm not making any excuses for people not taking the trouble to test things on their own, just explaining to you how people really think. If you're involved in any way in something that is misleading at all, most people won't trust you at all any more.

Rick

10-11-2002, 09:18 PM

Another bit of advice to anyone who's worried about their credibility. People don't give a damn about whether you're really winning or losing. What they care about is whether the advice you give them helps them to win or lose.

ranchwest

10-12-2002, 12:57 AM

Dick,

Because my former home track was Delta Downs, I've probably seen a higher percentage of FIXED races than most anyone on this board.

Still, I count on races not being fixed and not many are blatantly fixed.

So, why do so many people think races are fixed? I think it is because most people concentrate on ability and pay little attention to factors such as form cycle, claims, connections, physicality and horses for courses.

When a horse with ability is beaten by a 20-1 horse, the cries go up that the race was fixed. Most of the time, the horse with ability was not ready to run on that day and an astute handicapper can often discern that the horse is not ready.

A lot of people mistakenly think that the best horse in the race is the horse who was best in a previous race. The best horse in every race is the one that wins. It is not an easy concept for most people to grasp.

BIG HIT

10-12-2002, 09:01 AM

Would rather think they were cheated then say they were wrong.Or they want to win there way then end up saying should have followed the book.

keilan

10-12-2002, 01:02 PM

I realize we are getting off topic here, but this is my take on race fixing. Does it happen? Depends on your definition of cheating. Do trainers and jocks sit around before a race and decide who the winner will be?( hardly ). Are trainers looking to set their horse up and put him in a position to win at a price?
( sometimes ). Does this happen with the same frequency at all tracks? ( more frequent at the cheaper tracks ).

For me I realize it is a small part of the game and I accept that. Nobody should be naive enough to believe that trainers etc sometimes don't try to gain an edge and cash some tickets. Please show me any business or game where there's men and money involved and not any deceit.

Richard Bauer commented recently on this subject:

" What I look for is consistency in race outcomes as it relates to the expected outcome based upon my handicapping; and, based upon the publics' handicapping as measured by the betting. When things start happening that I can't make a case for, then perhaps I'm the problem. But, when the public can't make a case for what's happening either, then there is some other problem ".

Many many times I have been at the track / OTB and heard the rants of fix / cheaters from players after a race. On several of those occasions I have keyed that horse on tickets or have realized that this horse was a contender. It is on occasion when I nor the betting public have not been able to identify that winning horse either before the race or I after the race. It is then I believe there was foul play. How prevalent are these incidents IMO? ( less than 5% in the tracks I have kept stats on ). It's also nice to know which Barns participate in this kind of activity, sometimes as I have anticipated such a move and included the horse in a pick4. I also believe chemical substance's are generally the reason for sudden form / velocity reversal. Horse's don't go off at high odds then perform at three class levels higher then they are running, then revert back to their pervious form for 4 or 5 races.

For me the key to decifering those incidents are par times, daily variants and other measurements derived for each class, distance and sex. Obviously there will be other indicators for other players.

It is my hope that no-one has the short-sightedness or arrogance to ask after reading this "When are you leaving? You're not going to stay and play a fixed game, are you?"

Tom

10-19-2002, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by rogerw
Horse Racing Logic by Glendon Jones would be a good
place to start.

Based on so many posivtive comments about this book, I bought it, read it, and I am impressed. I agree it is a great book for beginers to learn from. I thoroughly enjoyed the read.
I still prefer to pick my own paceline and not rely on a program to do it for me. There is just no way a computer can do the mental evaluations the brain can do. It is like free form jazz. Every horse is a unique entity, at a unique point in time, facing other unique entities at their own points in time and no set of pre-determined rules can ever cover everything. Just making money isn't everything. Like farfivnugin (sp?) - the joy of the ride. If the cash were all that mattered, I would not never play the horses. No way the track could ever come close to my real job. Just like no way my real job could ever come close to playing the horses.

Derek2U

10-20-2002, 12:43 PM

I am a guy who likes Horsing around at lot ; I have a close
friend who has become quite a good horse player over the
last 5 years. I LOVE LOVE LOVE playing the horses: seeing them
strain to race; winning ; understanding handicapping. I ride
horses for fun & I just LOVE their total demeanor. On the other
hand, my friend couldn't care less if he even sees them run.
He bets lots of races & cares for the bottom line --- not just
for the money, but the conquest of being right & winning. Now,
I would never bet if I didn't see them, which is why I almost only
bet on the weekends when I see them live on my telly from
New York tracks. I can never imagine not having horse racing
in my life.

Jaguar

10-21-2002, 09:57 PM

Sure wish there had been a Dick Schmidt or dave Schwartz to advise me when I started in this handicapping endeavor in 1980.

Instead, I went over to American Turf's offices, which were on Manhattan's west side, and the staff there was kind enough to let me read and browse in their excellent handicapping library.

There should be an "encyclopedia of racing ", available to all, inexpensively. Not only because there is so much to learn in this game, but also because the racing business has changed so dramatically over the years.

Dick Schmidt's post was right on the money.

In addition to studying the racing literature, and spending time at the track, a neophyte handicapper should watch Joe Takach's video, and should make a real effort to meet 2 or 3 horsemen.

Then, with some foundation under them, the newby should apprentice himself to a really solid handicapper- a suggestion which several folks have made.

Only the veteran handicappers have lost enough money to have learned how to attack this game successfully. The old-timers know it's a spot game, and they know when to step up to the plate and when to stay in their seats.

These guys also own the best software, and I don't mean $50 pace programs written 10 years BT(Before Tramex).- I mean the finest A. I. programs money can buy(including the best "expert

systems" discs- for those who don't consider "expert systems"discs to be true A. I. programs).

All the best,

Jaguar