Morning Line Odds Maker

[TravisVOX]

Is there a software that can help create morning line fairly easily?

[betovernetcapper]

Am going to PM you a link to a freeware program that you might find helpful. I don't know anything about the other stuff on the site.

[Murph]

Is there a software that can help create morning line fairly easily?Are you going to be setting the ML for LAD, Travis?
Will you have any "creative license" in the production of your handicapping
telecast?

- betovernetcapper, I would like to take a look at that program myself.

Murph

[highnote]

Is there a software that can help create morning line fairly easily?

Check out the Monte Carlo thread in this section. It might be helpful.

[njcurveball]

Is there a software that can help create morning line fairly easily?

WOW! This is scary! Creating a morning line is more art than science. The best ones are like Grandmas recipes. A pinch of this, a taste of that.

The worst are boiler plate 2-1 favorite, so 2nd choice is 7-2, 3rd choice 4-1, etc.

IF a software package can read the past performances and produce the morning line, as well as you. I would seriously question how much job security you have.

I also wouldn't let your Management get wind of this. Track Management has no clue about trying to raise the handle. Their days are spent trying to figure out how much they can save if use the worst paper and cheapest ink for the programs.

Better to read the posts here and try to get a lil educated on handicapping.

best to you,
Jim

[highnote]

WOW! This is scary! Creating a morning line is more art than science. The best ones are like Grandmas recipes. A pinch of this, a taste of that.

The worst are boiler plate 2-1 favorite, so 2nd choice is 7-2, 3rd choice 4-1, etc.

IF a software package can read the past performances and produce the morning line, as well as you. I would seriously question how much job security you have.

I also wouldn't let your Management get wind of this. Track Management has no clue about trying to raise the handle. Their days are spent trying to figure out how much they can save if use the worst paper and cheapest ink for the programs.

Better to read the posts here and try to get a lil educated on handicapping.

best to you,
Jim


My Monte Carlo software will assist in making a line.

However, I don't know if Travis was asking if there is software that will make a morning line or if he was asking if there is software that will make it easier for him to make a morning line.

I would think that the ML maker would start by writing down what he/she thinks are fair odds or probabilities and then adjust them until the seem about right and also add up to 100 or 120 percent.

Doesn't the ML maker try to make the line resemble what he thinks the public will do? Or has that changed to the point where the ML maker tries to make an accurate line that reflects the outcome.

js

[njcurveball]

Doesn't the ML maker try to make the line resemble what he thinks the public will do? Or has that changed to the point where the ML maker tries to make an accurate line that reflects the outcome.

js

Unless something has changed since I did it, the job of the ML maker is to give the public an estimate of HOW a horse will be bet. So if you are at a track where Scott Lake wins 50% off the claim and he just claimed a horse who ran up the track, you still make him the ML favorite or pretty close.

If you are using computer software that evaluates speed and pace, this kind of horse will never come up with a top figure.

You also evaluate how a horse is working out and which barns have good first time starters pointed for YOUR meet. Some trainers also do much better at one track or another.

Then you take into account how the public bets certain jockeys. Joe Bravo takes money, even if he is riding a donkey.

A good ML maker goes through each race at least 3 times looking for difference nuances of how each horse has reacted to each race in his form cycle and what the trainer intentions are for the horse. Short layoff? Long layoff? Back in 5 days? Days out will influence todays race, even if people tell you it wont.

At some tracks, you only have past performances a few days in advance and have to rely on your memory of a horses past races. Mix in the horse for course angles that you should be familiar with.

Also mix in which tracks usually send "dead" shippers. At many tracks, a horse coming from NY is a negative. Even though they look like they have been running against much better horses.

You need to know the weather report, how the track maintenance crew scrapes the track (anyone see the Breeders Cup). How and when they cut the turf and where the rail is placed.

Of course these things and many more are taken into account by the best line makers. We all can tell the difference between a good line maker and one that "just does the job".

I would say hands down, the Charles Town morning line is the worst today. Boiler plate 5-2 favorite and two 4-1s are standard fare there.

best to you,
Jim

[highnote]

Interesting. Thanks.

I still think software could help. Here's how.

Let's say there are 5 horses in the first race on the card and you need to make a line.

You're pretty sure the horses will be bet by the public in their post position.

So 1 will be fav, 2 will be second choice, post 3 will be third choice, etc.

You think 1 will be a big favorite so you make him even money.

It's a small field so you make the 2, 2-1.

3 you make 6-1.

4 you make 8-1

and 5 is a long shot at 15-1.

Now, you have to figure out if you've got a 100% line or a 120% line or whatever.

This is the point where I think software can help. It can take those odds and calculate for you what the line adds up to. And you can then do what-ifs by tweaking each horse one at a time until you get the line balanced the way you want.

If you do this step manually, it requires a lot of pencil and paper or calculator punching. Why not let the computer help with this step?

John

[njcurveball]

Your point is well taken, if they wanted you to put EXACT probabilities. Most races you cannot toss horses, you are allowed to make them 30-1 max. If you have 3 of these, that is 10% wasted if you try to always balance out to an exact number.

I agree with you if you looking for an "academic" answer. I enjoy reading posts from people who think this game is one where you can put exact probabilities on a thousands pounds of flesh trying to run as fast as it can with 120 pounds on top trying to hold it back.

If you look at 1,000 horses where you made them 6-1 in your line. Most will agree the ones that went off at 3-1 will win more than those than went off 10-1. That is the nature of the game.

A good morning line will help the player identify who will be bet today and who may be ignored by the public.

Everyone going to the windows has an opinion and in over half of the races, the public gets the line close enough to actual proibability that no profit can be made betting to win.

People who think they can "tweak" probabilities with a computer to make these races profitable are good for the game. They put more money in the pools for those who aren't a slave to the tote board.

Through hard work and other factors, you can be better than the crowd. It doesn't come from everyone using the same program betting the #1 Jrating.

best to you,
Jim

[headhawg]

Through hard work and other factors, you can be better than the crowd. It doesn't come from everyone using the same program betting the #1 Jrating.You've made your point -- ENOUGH ALREADY!!!! You are quickly becoming the #1 troll here. (My apologies to No Day Job.)

[highnote]

Is there a software that can help create morning line fairly easily?


I wrote some software that might help -- and it's free at http://www.hypernormal.com/html/PA

Just download, unzip and run.

Read the Monte Carlo thread in the software section of PA for intructions on how to use it.