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highnote
10-23-2006, 12:05 AM
I see some major changes in U.S. breeding taking place and they seem like bad news for the U.S. industry.

1. Polytrack
2. Sheiks/Coolmore

Polytrack may favor turf runners. The U.S. breeding industry is based on producing early maturing, early speed dirt runners.

Strike one.

European breeding favors turf runners.

Strike two.

The Sheiks and Coolmore are buying up the best bloodstock -- they probably own the best turf sires in the world.

Strike three.

Indulto
10-23-2006, 02:55 AM
I had the opportunity earlier to read a post from the Thorograph board entitled “Pollyanna Track or Pandora’s Bucks?” which was posted under the pseudonym, Thehoarsehorseplayer. It should not be missed.

Before that, a friend and I were listening to a few archived segments of ATRAB. One included an interview with Stan Bergstein about racing’s failure to take advantage of television from the ‘50s. The other included replaying Dr. Fager’s U.N. Hcp, Exceller’s JCGC, and Secretariat’s Marlboro Cup; as well as getting Bob Fox’s thoughts on Polytrak, and a pre-Labor Day discussion with Bill Nader.

On the way home, it finally hit me that the good old days really did end with the ‘70s. Recapturing that era isn’t very likely while so few horses of soundness and stamina are being bred AND so little incentive remains for now injury-prone graded stakes winners to delay their stud duty. But maybe we shouldn’t bemoan the loss of tradition. After all, nothing fell off the end of the earth when the Woodward was shifted to Saratoga, or when synthetic surfaces were installed at Woodbine and Keeneland along with Trakus..

Polytrak might actually turn out to be racing’s savior after all. If cheap speed is devalued, maybe we’ll see more horses able to go classic distances again along with ones able to excel on the surface. As the owners and breeders aren’t concerned with maintaining tradition, why stop experimenting. Until we get horses than CAN get those three distances in five weeks, we should temporarily extend the spacing. What is there to lose given the likelihood that the Preakness might not be run continuously at Pimlico nor the Belmont at Belmont?

Another idea worth experimenting with was brought up by Bob Fox: If we want champions to show their greatness by carrying meaningful weight assignments, then we should award Handicap winners a bonus when they carry weight worthy of a champion.

PaceAdvantage
10-23-2006, 03:05 AM
What is there to lose given the likelihood that the Preakness might not be run continuously at Pimlico nor the Belmont at Belmont?

OK, I'll bite.

Whatcha talkin' 'bout Willis?

No Belmont @ Belmont? Says who?

Indulto
10-23-2006, 07:25 AM
OK, I'll bite.

Whatcha talkin' 'bout Willis?

No Belmont @ Belmont? Says who?Adding BEL to PIM was actually an afterthought and I should have specifically inserted “possibility” rather than default to “likelihood.”

Just as the Belmont was run at AQU when BEL was closed for renovation without devaluing the results, circumstances in 2007 could dictate that the race be run elsewhere, rescheduled, or perhaps not run at all.

Suppose some combination of the following were to occur: 1) the NYRA gets neither approval for slots nor the balance of the bailout, 2) the NYRA does not retain the franchise for 2008, and/or 3) there is no Triple Crown candidate. Purses for G1/G2 stakes might have to be deferred until SAR, and racing might stay at AQU until the start of a rescheduled, much more profitable SAR meeting.

Regardless which bid is accepted, with no BEL spring meeting, the 2008 franchisee could install a synthetic surface should the Keeneland and Hollywood installations prove successful.

What scenarios do you envision given the behavior of the Lottery Commission and the Racing Oversight Board?

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 02:44 PM
I see some major changes in U.S. breeding taking place and they seem like bad news for the U.S. industry.

1. Polytrack
2. Sheiks/Coolmore

Polytrack may favor turf runners. The U.S. breeding industry is based on producing early maturing, early speed dirt runners.

Strike one.

European breeding favors turf runners.

Strike two.

The Sheiks and Coolmore are buying up the best bloodstock -- they probably own the best turf sires in the world.

Strike three.
___________________

Turfway Park sires with
10 or more wins, 2005-'06
Sire Wins Turf Rating Mud Rating
Catienus 18 C C
Tale of the Cat 15 C B
Rubiano 13 C C
Elusive Quality 12 C B
Grand Slam 12 B B
Peaks And Valleys 12 C C
Sefapiano 11 C C
Slew City Slew 11 B B
Real Quiet 10 C C
___________________
European AW track winners have depended on how the bias was running.
IMO artificial track, whether Polyturf, Tapeta (which Magna is beginning with in Ca), or something else, will be of great help to breeders because the weather will not be as big an influence in opting for drier winter weather
for their stakes horses, and less sire lines will show a tendency toward leg problems.
To some the breed seemed much stronger when horses were laided off for the winter on a regular basis so legs recouperated, and the farm layoff did not result as much in overweight short-distance-muscled runners like today, and less leg pain meant less drugs.
I do not know how some buying up the best turf sires will affect the industry, but I have a feeling that turf runners may perform better by working out on Polytrack instead of having to work on dirt many times when the turf track is not open. Maybe we will go back top seeing more turf horses with better stamina instead of so many turf sprint races. At least in Europe the also-ran turfers are within sight of the winners!

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 02:57 PM
Brisnat "At A Glances" shows "E" or "P" types dominate turf sprints and routes at almost all tracks, and many tracks show sprint turfs won 36%+ wire-to-wire.
Good luck to Claibourne and the sheiks with their traditional turf sires! :cool:

Wiley
10-23-2006, 03:16 PM
The Sheiks and Coolmore are buying up the best bloodstock -- they probably own the best turf sires in the world.

Strike three.
No probably about it.
This is nothing new, British Bloodstock and Sheik Mohammad started buying up all of the Northern Dancer lines back in the '80's. I read the Sheik is focusing more on American dirt sired runners now to concentrate on Classic victories and it looks like it's working with the likes of Bernardini and Discrete Cat so domination there is upon us.

I think it used to be there were enough private breeders who bred and raced like the Phipps, Firestone etc. to keep the American breed solid. I don't think that's the case anymore, most go to auction.

I would credit, if you want to call it that, the Lukas/Klein mentality on racing started in the 80's as well - spend a lot of money on precocious yearlings, race them into the ground early to get a quick return on investment, then sell them to commercial breeders to continue the cycle. To me this process never made for the quality continuation of the breed.

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 03:40 PM
Some breeding sites discuss Lukas.
His official website-"http://www.dwlukas.com/"
Congrats to Lukas for making the QUARTERHORSE Hall of Fame!
IMO if racing changes due to 1 successful trainer, figure maker, sheik, or auto parts tycoon, then the direction the industry goes is still up to the industry.
Overall I see indicators that the racing industry thinks maybe things have gone too far in one direction and is beginning to make some major adjustments.
I think people are beginning to believe the old saying that horses are not machines- especially not racecars.

Valuist
10-23-2006, 03:43 PM
___________________

Turfway Park sires with
10 or more wins, 2005-'06
Sire Wins Turf Rating Mud Rating
Catienus 18 C C
Tale of the Cat 15 C B
Rubiano 13 C C
Elusive Quality 12 C B
Grand Slam 12 B B
Peaks And Valleys 12 C C
Sefapiano 11 C C
Slew City Slew 11 B B
Real Quiet 10 C C
___________________
European AW track winners have depended on how the bias was running.
IMO artificial track, whether Polyturf, Tapeta (which Magna is beginning with in Ca), or something else, will be of great help to breeders because the weather will not be as big an influence in opting for drier winter weather
for their stakes horses, and less sire lines will show a tendency toward leg problems.
To some the breed seemed much stronger when horses were laided off for the winter on a regular basis so legs recouperated, and the farm layoff did not result as much in overweight short-distance-muscled runners like today, and less leg pain meant less drugs.
I do not know how some buying up the best turf sires will affect the industry, but I have a feeling that turf runners may perform better by working out on Polytrack instead of having to work on dirt many times when the turf track is not open. Maybe we will go back top seeing more turf horses with better stamina instead of so many turf sprint races. At least in Europe the also-ran turfers are within sight of the winners!

That list is pretty much what I thought. I'd say the top Polytrack sires I've seen are Catienus, Grand Slam and Fusaichi Pegasus. But that list is NOT comprised primarily of turf sires. Grand Slam, Tale of the Cat and Slew City Slew may be but I would not consider Catienus, Peaks & Valleys, Sefapiano or Real Quiet to be grass sires.

JPinMaryland
10-23-2006, 03:51 PM
I dont see how new players in the horse racing game will hurt it. That is if to say that the shiek is really a new player, I guess he's been around for many years anyhow. But just in general how does a new player with more dollars, hurt the industry? Seems like he should help just on general principles.

Also how do we know polytrack will hurt the breed? I dont see it making much difference one way or the other but Id like to see what the argument is that a different surface will hurt TBs.

Valuist
10-23-2006, 04:00 PM
I dont see how new players in the horse racing game will hurt it. That is if to say that the shiek is really a new player, I guess he's been around for many years anyhow. But just in general how does a new player with more dollars, hurt the industry? Seems like he should help just on general principles.

Also how do we know polytrack will hurt the breed? I dont see it making much difference one way or the other but Id like to see what the argument is that a different surface will hurt TBs.

If the Arabs & Coolmore end up buying all the top yearlings and winning all the awards, it will be very bad. Never good to bump the little guy (I'm not referring to the poster) out. Remember how popular Funny Cide's Derby win was? Look at how popular Sea Biscuit was........I don't think you'll ever see a movie about Discreet Cat or Bernardini.

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 05:24 PM
That list is pretty much what I thought. I'd say the top Polytrack sires I've seen are Catienus, Grand Slam and Fusaichi Pegasus. But that list is NOT comprised primarily of turf sires. Grand Slam, Tale of the Cat and Slew City Slew may be but I would not consider Catienus, Peaks & Valleys, Sefapiano or Real Quiet to be grass sires.
___
I intentionally left out that the website I got that from is making the point that turf sires may NOT automatically do well on turf!
AW so far has been a mixed bag as to kickback, bias, formful, and even type of AW prefered.

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 05:31 PM
I dont see how new players in the horse racing game will hurt it. That is if to say that the shiek is really a new player, I guess he's been around for many years anyhow. But just in general how does a new player with more dollars, hurt the industry? Seems like he should help just on general principles.

Also how do we know polytrack will hurt the breed? I dont see it making much difference one way or the other but Id like to see what the argument is that a different surface will hurt TBs.
________________
The only arguments I have seen in medical studies is that the firmness of a surface matters to TB health, not as to type of surface. Supposedly too soft OR too hard hurts. IMHO most important to TB health while in a race/workout are the stress force as the hoof hits the ground, and the stability of the leg and the ground. Other than that the current condition of the hoof or leg matters.
So far I have not heard about any AW having the above negative effects.

kenwoodallpromos
10-23-2006, 05:52 PM
The U.S. breeding industry is based on producing early maturing, early speed dirt runners.
I would say it is based on whatever gets breeders the most bang for the buck; from what I see wagering is bsed on race statistics, breeding is based on stakes wins and stakes ITM finishes. I rarely see any times mentioned in connection with sire dam or pedigree lines; what I see is % of attrition form conception to winning stakes. I do not see breeding and sales prices connected directly yet to 1f time or to incidence of pysical health of runners.
As as far as handicappers and bettors and speed, I see the industry going out of its way to avoid putting out any accurate information as to speed (time).
That is the domain of equine in other-than-thoroughbred races. Relative quality of the Tbred, of the race and finish position is all I see as important in non-claiming races to breeders, buyers, and owners.

skate
10-23-2006, 05:53 PM
hey hey hey TD;

you didnt let us know, if you caught on or not?


ok ok ok , just kidding, gees!

skate
10-23-2006, 05:55 PM
Kenwood;

ya, i think you got something there.

PaceAdvantage
10-23-2006, 07:05 PM
Suppose some combination of the following were to occur: 1) the NYRA gets neither approval for slots nor the balance of the bailout, 2) the NYRA does not retain the franchise for 2008, and/or 3) there is no Triple Crown candidate. Purses for G1/G2 stakes might have to be deferred until SAR, and racing might stay at AQU until the start of a rescheduled, much more profitable SAR meeting.

Regardless which bid is accepted, with no BEL spring meeting, the 2008 franchisee could install a synthetic surface should the Keeneland and Hollywood installations prove successful.

What scenarios do you envision given the behavior of the Lottery Commission and the Racing Oversight Board?

Except for #2, the financial and politcal fallout from #1 and #3 would be too great to become reality. And I don't see why #2 might lead to no Belmont @ Belmont.

Do you really think they are going to let NYRA go belly up before it's time to award the franchise? But then again, if it happens, it will happen AFTER election day, so who knows?

Indulto
10-23-2006, 08:24 PM
Except for #2, the financial and politcal fallout from #1 and #3 would be too great to become reality. And I don't see why #2 might lead to no Belmont @ Belmont.

Do you really think they are going to let NYRA go belly up before it's time to award the franchise? But then again, if it happens, it will happen AFTER election day, so who knows?You’re right, nothing is “likely” to happen until after the election. The more I think about it, it seems sufficiently reasonable that the current governor and other politicians/appointees involved could admit that’s the reason for the delay.

Let’s assume #2 is the culmination of an anti-NYRA consensus, and no more money is forthcoming because the new governor wants to resolve the land ownership issue unequivocally. To avoid giving up control prematurely, the NYRA would have to come up with an operating budget to get them through the year, with or without bankruptcy protection.

Are they required to pay more than the minimum for any G1 purse or some portion of total Triple Crown entry fees? Why would there be any fallout if they were forced to reschedule and/or shift venue if necessary, especially if the Preakness winner were not the Derby winner AND since PIM is considering a "spacing" change independently? What would happen if weather forced cancellation of the Belmont Stakes?

PaceAdvantage
10-24-2006, 12:53 AM
Even if they wait until after election day, there will still be fallout. The racing industry in NY employs LOTS of people, and if it grinds to a half because the state refuses to release what it has already APPROVED for NYRA, people won't soon forget the fact that these politicians cost them $$$ and perhaps their livelihoods!

How could the politicians involved defend themselves if that were to happen? How could they sit there and say they would rather put people out of work than give NYRA what they need to stay afloat (especially after they APPROVED this bailout money months ago)???!!!??

This is all just posturing. NYRA will get what it needs to continue to operate business as usual IMO.

And as for weather cancelling the Belmont....I suppose they would run it the following Saturday.....or perhaps get special approval from the NYSRWB to add a race to the Sunday card the next day....

Indulto
10-24-2006, 03:40 PM
... This is all just posturing. NYRA will get what it needs to continue to operate business as usual IMO.NYRA bankruptcy filing looks near
Source says association to act on Thursday; letter said to be critical of Pataki destroyed
By James M. Odato October 21, 2006
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=527690 (http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=527690)… A source familiar with NYRA's precarious financial condition said the racing association plans to seek protection from creditors in U.S. Bankruptcy Court on Thursday.

… Earlier this week, NYRA's lawyer, Patrick Kehoe, a former counsel to Gov. George Pataki, wrote an eight-page letter to the Ad Hoc Committee on the Future of Racing, which is reviewing the four bids. The letter, according to people familiar with it, documented how the Pataki administration's refusal to provide the approvals and release $19 million in loans is bankrupting NYRA.

The letter infuriated administration officials, a person familiar with the situation said.

… He [Nader] said NYRA leaders are frustrated with the Pataki administration and believe the association is being treated unfairly. He noted Yonkers Raceway last week got state approval to open a VLT casino even after being fined $9 million for polluting the Bronx River for years -- three times NYRA's fine for its role in a federal tax fraud conspiracy.

"It's particularly frustrating to us that six racetracks in this state are fully operational with video gaming and we haven't received approval to begin construction," Nader said.

… Pataki administration officials have said NYRA should shoulder blame for delays in the VLT project.Racing decision unlikely before elections by PAUL POST, The Saratogian 10/24/2006
http://www.saratogian.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17368581&BRD=1169&PAG=461&dept_id=17708&rfi=6 (http://www.saratogian.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17368581&BRD=1169&PAG=461&dept_id=17708&rfi=6)
… The Ad Hoc Committee … is comprised of six Republican appointees and three Democrats. But with Democrat Eliot Spitzer expected to become New York's next governor, there could be a significant change in the process of selecting a new racetrack operator.

The Legislature has final say on who gets the franchise. If elected, Spitzer would take office in January, and it's highly unlikely that a new franchisee would be confirmed beforehand.

… Spitzer recently criticized how the request for proposals was written. Each firm's business plan - how they expect to conduct racing -- counts for 50 percent of their grade. Other criteria such as integrity (20 percent) count for less.

Spitzer said integrity should be a prerequisite, not a consideration.

PaceAdvantage
10-25-2006, 01:37 PM
None of this really matters. Racing will continue as usual in NY, IMO. The state will not let racing operations cease, if that is what you are worried about....

I just noticed the title of this thread....are we way off topic?

kenwoodallpromos
10-25-2006, 03:52 PM
None of this really matters. Racing will continue as usual in NY, IMO. The state will not let racing operations cease, if that is what you are worried about....

I just noticed the title of this thread....are we way off topic?
______
Off-topic? Not if you are talking about NY politicians as a BREED!LOL!! :lol:

Indulto
10-25-2006, 04:16 PM
None of this really matters. Racing will continue as usual in NY, IMO. The state will not let racing operations cease, if that is what you are worried about....

I just noticed the title of this thread....are we way off topic?PA,
It's been a pleasure having a discussion with you in other than your official capacity. ;)

I'm not worried about the State ceasing operations, just their making us wish they had. And, frankly, nothing I've read in any industry press or regular newspapers supports the confidence that you and tlg seem to have that the NYRA will get through this.

Actually, I applaud Spitzer's emphasis on integrity (which fits his projected image), and I hope that he is scrutinizing Empire's behavior in all this with his usual occupational enthusiasm. :D

After listening to the David Kuo interview on PBS, it was hard not to see the analogy between Empire's manipulation of the horsemen and the Bush Admin's exploitation of the Christian Right. Is there a slots equivalent of an oil baron?

To totally terminate this thread's topic tolerance, is it left-leaning handicapping to forgive a poor performance and throw out a race? Or do all races deserve equal consideration (and punitive assessment)? :lol:

PaceAdvantage
10-26-2006, 02:53 AM
Where have I expressed any confidence recently that "the NYRA will get through this?" And what exactly do you mean by "through this?" Do you mean the near-future up until franchise expiration, or are you including post-franchise expiration, with the hopes that NYRA retains the franchise?

If you are talking about NYRA getting through this up until franchise expiration, then yes, I have confidence the state won't let NYRA go belly-up (and thus put racing in jeopardy) before the franchise expires. They've already agreed to help NYRA along with this earmarked money, which for some reason, is in limbo.

With all the negative news coming out of the NYRA camp, I just don't see how any politician can justify the awarding of the new franchise to the old NYRA. A lot of this just doesn't make much sense anymore, thus I suppose anything can happen....