Spot plays based on charts

[Rick Ransom]

I have a really good set of spot plays that depend on finding things in the charts that don't appear in the past performances. I used to play them in Nevada when I could just scan all of the racing forms on a daily basis and keep a list of "horses to watch".

I know that I could look at all of the charts online and use Stable Mail now, but it still seems like a lot of trouble. Does anyone know of any easier way to do this? I guess I'd catch a lot of them by looking at the DRF National Charts Weekly, but it doesn't cover all tracks. Just thought I'd ask since these types of spot plays are the best around. They never get popular because nobody ever sees the factors involved.

[John]

Rick, is this a cotinuation of " TIPS "

I have had a paper and pencil stratagy, data from the racing form, for years I thought of programing it and wonderd if ythat $29.00 book that PRM has in its catalog will do it.

Let me know if you find away.............

[Rick Ransom]

rocajack,

I don't think this has anything to do with TIPS. Please correct me if I'm wrong. These are spot plays based only on result charts. The closest thing that everyone probably knows about would be the old "key race" concept, which isn't any secret anymore, but probably once had some value.

[Tom]

Ojne of my favorite plays is based on Quirin-style pace and speed numbers from the charts. I use the Beyer number to get the daily variant, then I use Dave Schwartz's pars to see what pace number should have been run. I calculate a seperate pace variant and look for exceptionally fast pace races and use that to either forgive a horse's performance due to having to run too fast early, or spot a horse who ran a powerful race and is likely to be hot today. I have caught some nice horse this way. In the Breeder's cup, this method pointed ou the winner and made me downgrad AP Indy's chances. It all but eliminated both of the well touted California horses. You an do tis with SimWeekly and the winner's book- no need for the whole chart.
Tom

[ridersup]

Rick:

Equibase has charts for all tracks usually available a shor time after the race has been run. Ton of info in the chart including comments on each horse and all claims are noted.

I also use Dave Schwartz's par time to evaluate each race to try and find potential key races. Often times one or two races will stand out as far as pace and final time are concerned and horses from these races go into DRF stable mail. Suprising number of these horses come back to win or at least make the exacta. Great tool for spot plays.

Ridersup

[Rick Ransom]

Tom & ridersup,

I think you guys have it right as far as "key races" go. The original idea by Davidowitz won't work because they publish the info in DRF, but taking it to another level like this still pays off. I've also considered calculating Beyers for horses in their next race and if a lot of them come back at better than par, maybe one that's left will improve. Again, sort of like the original "key race" thing, but more accurate. It would give you kind of a class rating for the race.

[andicap]

Isn't that what BRIS does with its race ratings/class ratings?
I tried using Beyers once to judge how good the race was and it never really worked for me. Maybe using pace plus Beyers would work better. Or total Quirin points, etc.
One of those things I will evaluate in my spare time when I hit the lottery.

andicap.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Isn't that what BRIS does with its race ratings/class ratings?
I tried using Beyers once to judge how good the race was and it never really worked for me. Maybe using pace plus Beyers would work better. Or total Quirin points, etc.
One of those things I will evaluate in my spare time when I hit the lottery.

andicap.

What I like to do is to convert the Beyer number to a Quirin-style speed figure and then calcualte the pace figure. I add together the pace of the race numbers and the horse's final number and then average that to the par for the race to get a "class rating."
Say par is 104 and a race goes in 103-104. the horse runs a 102. His rating 102 103+104+102=309/3=103.
(the 309 is Quinn's PDQ pace number). Now average the 103 with the 103 par and get 103.5. Big deal.
but when horses run a lot different from par, you get some better looking numbers to work with. this is lot of work and I only do it sometimes, like with Allowance races or high claimers $50+.
tom

[Rick Ransom]

Tom,

You reminded me of one of my biggest gripes about most of the pace and speed ratings. They just aren't on the same scale at all, so it's like comparing apples to oranges. I guess Quirin numbers would be better and that's why your approach sounds interesting, but converting numbers can be hazardous to your accuracy. Over the last few years I've become convinced that class = pace if you do it right, but the obvious things I've tried haven't worked that well.

[andicap]

Does anyone know if the BRIS ratings are on the same scale?

andicap

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Does anyone know if the BRIS ratings are on the same scale?

andicap

The pace numbers E1,E2, and LP are on the saem scale, but they don't match the speed figures.
I've seen numbers like 87 88 90 with a SR of 78 and then numbers like 88 87 91 with a SR of 85.
Doesn't see, to be any correlation.
Tom

[karlskorner]

Tom

If you go to BRIS Library section, explanation of Speed and Pace Ratings, I think you will find your answer

Karl