Claiming races & the Racing Track

[karlskorner]

http://www.als.edu/glc/wagering/racino.html

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

The author of the article states:

For bettors, it had long been a mantra of people who make speed figures that $10,000 claimers run the same basic speed figures, regardless of the location of the track. 6 That no longer makes sense when the purses are so different.

Why? Regardless of the purse, you're still putting your horse up on the selling block for 10k. No matter how much he gets for winning, if he's clearly better than the rest of the 10k competition, the owner's going to lose him.

The author leaves out many other considerations, like barn space for shippers, bias towards locals, etc. I'm not a backstretch guy, but I don't imagine it's as simple as tossing Black Beauty in a trailer and heading down I-70.

MP

[JustMissed]

Great story. I have played Charlestown, Mountaineer & Delaware Park some in the recent past and I can tell you I have seen some huge payoffs, especially in the exactas & trifectas. There could be something going on there in WV cause some night I would just scratch my head and wonder how anybody could pick those finishers.

I have been playing Calder lately getting ready for the Tampa live racing. I don't know for sure but I think several of the Calder trainers, horses and jocks come up to Tampa so I thought that might give me a little bit of an edge come December. Manuel Cruz was here in Tampa this past spring-he's one hellava good jockey. I think he's about 16% at Calder.

Now you have me longing for Mountaineer night racing. They have two great track handicappers. The blond headed gal(I can't think of her name right now) may be a bit the best. One night she picked about six exactas in a row and then picked a couple of trifecta, straight up. I was thinking on the way home that I should have just boxed all her picks and left with a big wad in my pocket-oh well!.

See ya,

JustMissed

:)

[smf]

JM,

The blonde is a former trainer, Nancy McMichael. Pretty certain that's her name, anyways. On pp's, you'll see some "formerly trained by" with ther name on some runners up there. She knows the stock and personnel there.

MPaul,

I'm kinda on the run right now (leaving for the simo), but if you read Steve Collison's INSIDE THE CLAIMING GAME, you'll understand that not all 10k claimers are worth the same.

[hurrikane]

MP,
Not certain but I think the take on this was...if you claim a $7500 horse in MD and drop him to 5K ranks the purse is only $7500. Winner gets half.that $3750.
You lose. That was they way the game was intended to be...keep the rank and file. Only way a trainer could win was on a bet(and lots of them did)
Now..you could claim a 5k horse at Pim..take him to MNR, drop him to a 4k or 3.5k. Purse is 10500, winner get half, $5250. You pretty much break even, cash a bet, maybe no one claims and you do it again.
I'm not covinced it works for them so well but you see a lot of MD trainers at CT these days. And a lot of OH trainers at MNR. They are usually underlays and if you keep your eyes open opportunity is just around the corner.

As for the Beyers and 10K claimers. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. That was just a jumping in place for Beyer, he moved on to projected times which has nothing to do with 10K claimers. Guess he only read half the book. Or has never made his own figures.

MNR was(maybe still is) the unofficial longshot track over at HTR. IF you know what you're looking for you can have a great time playing that place.

[JustMissed]

Yeah, that's right, it is Nancy. I did not know she was a trainer. The guy that works with her said something one night about his brother, I think maybe he owns or trains horses also.

I really enjoy the way they go over their capping. They will talk about two E horses burning each other out and how they are looking for a horse to come off the pace. Just like they can visualize the race playing out. I'll be glad when I get that good.

Has anyone here ever actually been to Mountaineer? I bet the scenery is great around there. Probably be a nice place to spent the summer.

JustMissed
:)

[Alc]

Scenery is great. MTNR sits on the banks of the Ohio river. Mark and Nancy really know the horses there. I believe that Mark is the assistant racing secretary. Can someone confirm.

[Tom]

no matter what the track, I assign a 100 par to all 10K claimers. I let the variants take care of the reality of it all. At FL, after adjsuting the track, my 10K horse that should earn a 100 gets a 96. At Aqu, it gets a 100. When a FL shnipper goes to Aqu, he is already penalized for his lack of class by his numbers.
When I used make varaints for NYRA all year, I wouild also make them for MED because so many shippers would cross over after the big M closed. But what I did was use the AQU par times to make the MED variants. So if a 10K horse at AQU should run a 111.2 and it ran 110.1 at Med, it was adjusted to Ny. Now, all the numbers at MED were not in sync to what really happened at that track, but I could not bet MED so I just cared about having an adjusted number to work with at the bug A. Worked really well.

[mountainman]

can somebody email me a copy of the article that started this thread? assume it delves into purse and claiming price comparisons from track to track. tricky business at best with so many factors(shippers,trainer intent, common sense math and even tradition) coming into play...potentially profitable opportunities do pop up at the mountain for players versed
in how things work here...self-avowed "low tech" handicapper here, but one of my few concessions to software is a crude database categorizing and tracking success rates of invading horses ..have found separating home and away teams a good first step in comprehending class structures....email is markwv45@msn.com

[BillW]

Originally posted by mountainman
can somebody email me a copy of the article that started this thread?


Mark,

I did a google search and came up with this:

http://www2.als.edu/glc/wagering/racino.html

Can't guarantee it is the original article but looks to close to be a coincidence.

Bill

[Figman]

For those interested in the Albany Law School website it is here:
http://www.als.edu/centers/editor.cfm?ID=585

When you get to the main page that lists daily stories, look along the left side about half way down and you will see a clickable title - "Our Reports". There is a racino report that centers on Mountaineer Park among the numerous reports listed.