NFL week 7

[Valuist]

3-1 last week, 7-5 ATS season to date

Pitt/Atl UND 37 1/2--been playing the Steeler total angle going back to last year. Go over when they are home, under on the road. The theory is Cowher is more conservative on the road.

Det/NYJ-- OVER 42---Detroit's D is capable of sending any game over, and the Lions are starting to grasp Martz' O. For the Jets, Pennington has had a nice start to the season but the Jets D is flat out poor. Two bad Ds, 42 is too low.

Washington +9---Indy has the worst run D in the league and Portis should capitalize. The Colts did make a trade to try to help their run D but they'll have to show me it first. Just too many points here. Not 100% sold on this Indy team.

GB/Miami OVER 40-- Favre capable of scoring points for either team. And the GB D is bad. Miami O may actually be better w/Harrington instead of Culpepper.

Denver/Cleveland OVER 32--so far Denver hasn't had a total reach 30 yet. I just can't see that lasting much longer; Javon Walker, Tatum Bell and Rod Smith....too many weapons to keep down. Cleveland also knows virtually the entire Bronco D line, who just about all came from the Browns. This number is just so low, it won't take much to go over.

[SAL]

Pittsburgh -3 vs Atlanta-I believe that Pittsburgh is still a playoff team. Roethlisberger came out of his funk in a big way last week as the Steelers dominated KC. If the Atlanta defense gives up yards like Tiki Barber racked up on them last week the Steelers should have no problems with winning their second in a row. Also, Atlanta is going to have their problems against teams that are strong against the run, which is something that Pittsburgh definitely is.

New England -6 vs Buffalo-Don't expect a repeat of game one between these two, where NE was lucky to escape with a win. Buffalo got the jump early when they were able to recover a fumble in NE territory and convert it into a TD. New England ran for 181 yards against them in that game, and figure to do much the same again Sunday. Especially since Detroit was able to rush for almost 5 yds a carry against them in their victory last week. The Bills continue to struggle scoring points, so I have no problem laying less than a TD here.

Wash/Indy Under 49- Indy has been horrible against the run this season, ranking last in yds per carry and next to last in yds per game. I'm sure that Joe Gibbs knows that he will not win a shootout agains the Colts, so I see a heavy dose of Clinton Portis coming up in this game. The Skins gave up 178 yards rushing vs Tennessee also after being pretty decent against the run, so we might see Indy running more here also.

Green Bay +5 vs Miami-It's hard to believe that the Dolphins could be 5 point favorites vs anybody nowadays. Saban's conservative coaching style has cost him some close games, and Joey Harrington hasn't exactly shown much either, with his 63 passer rating. I'll take the points against a team that hasn't scored more than 17 in a game all year.

Denver -5 vs Cleveland-Defense has been the strength of the Broncos this year. Cleveland's offense is in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in both rushing and passing, so I don't expect to see much by the way of points scored by them here. Shanahan has been conservative lately, minimizing the opportunities for Jake Plummer to lose any games for him. Denver should be able to cover the spread here if the defense continues to shut the door as far as points allowed goes.

Last week 3-1 Season 9-5-2