Superfecta structure using keys...and overlay principles

[1st time lasix]

Very little has been written about the proper way to structure these exotic types of plays. In races where you believe there is a good chance that it won't run to form....or your opinion varies from the public odds....I think the super ticket should be considered for comprehensive handicapers. I think creative structure using your contender selections and overlays is the key to catching a ticket that could cover your entire day and more. {The obvious problem is the possible longer dry spells and the costs involved.} It seems to me that you still have to approach it with the same dicipline to catch the overlay as you do in other pools. Use "keys" not boxes to cut down the cost. If an "odds on" favorite cannot be tossed for solid reasons. I think it makes logical sense to use him in two scenarios. 1} If a chaulk is an underlay on top in exactas....doesn't it follow to use him in the two hole in Supers??? You might get him beat on top and get some extra overlay payoff with a medium/longer priced shots both over him and under him. Based on your handicapping.....using two or three horses you feel could beat him today? 234/fav/234/23456. or 23/fav/234/234567. If you can't get really justify getting him off the top ....then ONLY play if you can eliminate the 2nd and 3rd public choices in the two hole??? fav/45/4567/23. I find I have success without using the all button when I can key two horses. example: Perhaps I believe the fouth choice at 4 -1 is an overlay and the pace scenario sets up for a closer {7th choice}that may be near double digit odds. 4/7/123/1234, 4/123/7/1234. 4/123/1234/7. The only other time I play is when I believe I have uncovered a live longshot. I may use this particular horse I favor for solid reasons above 8-1 in the win pool. I then may use him as a single in the 2,3,4 hole in the super. Of course many of you have more experience than I do woth these wagers. Some of you only play win pools. exacta pools and pick threes. I am willing to play anywhere wher I can potentially win an overlay wager. There is a time and place for everything in this game. Couple of my rules....no play on fields less than ten. No plays if I must include top two choices both high on the ticket. Any experience to share?;)

[twindouble]

FTL, there's been an awful lot posted here on the super, a repeat won't hurt.


I don't like using the term structure a ticket, to me denotes a specified way of wagering. The conditions of the race and the horses you select form the wager and that's relevant to your bankroll and the potential value you see in the play.

I agree key horses with value keep the cost down but the lack of one shouldn't deter you from playing it. The chalk in given conditions could very well be the key to a fairly good payoff or keying two or three horses on top with value. To me that's the foundation you work from. Keep in mind when I say "Key", your using those horses in at least 3 positions with others. I'm more apt to use the chalk in all 4 positions because I think he'll get beat but hit the board, in most cases that's the high number Beyer and speed in the race. On the other hand, having three horses with value, I may be looking to box with others, even if it's a $120 play, for the simple reason, the likely hood of a good payoff is there and I don't want to get beat. In other words, in a 10 horse field I've got it down to 6 horses and they don't include the chalks. $$$$. Here's another change of pace, those one or two I like with value allows me to go deeper in the third and forth slot when I feel anything and fall into those positions, here again there's a good chance to get a bomb for third or 4th. Happens all the time.

I rarely go all for 3rd and 4th, I will go all on occasion for 4th, when I have the keys. What I'm saying is, when I don't think there's a shot in hell for a horses to hit the board, I won't waste the money, it's few and far between I get stung by them. How I see the race being run start to finish helps me set up my play. As I said before, I don't have to be right all the time and I take that with a grain of salt.

Speaking of getting beat, when my key horses run out I'm all over that race trying to figure out why or what I missed. If it was just plain bad racing luck, trouble in the race, that horse goes on my watch list, more often than not, I can look forward to a winning day when that horse or horses come back. When I'm totally wrong :blush: I quickly chalk it up. :cool: For example, I've made that $120 play thinking I can beat the chalks and the super come back $78.00 :D and I didn't have it. Yes, I laugh. What else is there to do other than beat yourself up. :D


That's about it,

Good luck,

T.D.

[Murph]

How am I to decipher that single paragraph post?

I couldn't read it.

Murph

[Cesario!]

Anyone have any long-term ROI's to post on their Superfecta wagers?

I only ask because I tended to get blinded by the big scores -- and hopeful of a repeat -- but the data always shows a negative.

It's one thing to find 20-1 in the super pool, but how many of the same people would put $120 to win on a 20-1 shot? The difference, of course, is the outcome spread (as opposed to fixed with win), but I tend to think that this is more a jackpot sign than anything.

...3 different points, I know. A long night at work last night has made my structuring skills a bit off.

[Murph]

Thorostats posts a record of their top 4 selections over the past 3 years.
If you decice to research our results, you may determine a long term decision model based on our selections.

Murph

[twindouble]

How am I to decipher that single paragraph post?

I couldn't read it.

Murph

I don't write books for a living, I gamble on the horses. What don't you understand, I'll try to explain it.

T.D.

[twindouble]

Murph[/QUOTE] Just for you Murph.

I don't like using the term structure a ticket, to me denotes a specified way of wagering. The conditions of the race and the horses you select form the wager and that's relevant to your bankroll and the potential value you see in the play.

On the first sentence I mean be flexable, there isn't one way or two ways to play the super, no exact "formula".

The second sentence means, the overall conditions of the race, written, distance, how the horses fit, where the will be in the race along with how you think they will finish, what kind of value you have in your picks. Then go from there operating within the constraints of your bankroll.

Hope this helps, providing that's the paragaph your refering to. If it's the very first Sentence in the post, I was refering to 1st time lasix, telling him the subject has been covered here extensively.

If you don't understand the 3rd, 4th or 5th paragraph, let me know.


Good luck,

T.D.

[Steve 'StatMan']

TD, I sense Murph was responding to the original post, which had no paragraph breaks. Posted 3 minutes after your post, and was likely still trying to read the original post.

[twindouble]

TD, I sense Murph was responding to the original post, which had no paragraph breaks. Posted 3 minutes after your post, and was likely still trying to read the original post.

I make that mistake all the time, whenever someone posts right after I do, I fall in. :bang:

Thanks, Steve.

[PriceAnProbability]

Very little has been written about the proper way to structure these exotic types of plays. In races where you believe there is a good chance that it won't run to form....or your opinion varies from the public odds....

First things first: how do I find these overlays?

[twindouble]

PriceAnProbability[/b]]First things first: how do I find these overlays?

I like your handle but it covers a lot of ground, ESP the "probability" side.

I think you'll get many different answers to your question and I suspect with a handle like that you have answers as well. Could be wrong.

Over the years when that question come up my first thought was, where do I start? It's a lot easier to explain when your talking to someone that's familiar with the game and can at least read the form. A novice you have to take under your belt.

Right off the top of the head I can say, I don't go looking for "overlays" per say like mining for gold. I handicap the race, if the horse figures to win in my opinion and has value that's the one I'll bet or key on. Now, how I got there incorporates many things but the greater percentage is all basic handicapping. Then throw in experience, knowing the track inside and out and who's who, along with determining when the conditions are right for a horse to win. The latter comes from following the horses, (getting to know them), their connections and having a fair idea of their abilities or lack of including the connections. Obviously this is just a summery of what I do, including everything would take more than one paragaph but if you think about "basic" handicapping that covers a lot and I don't allow myself to be overwhelmed with unnecessary or out dated information. I try to keep it as simple as possable and have the willingness to gamble. This has worked for me for many years, where I'm at today isn't much to brag about, have slowed down conciderably but still hanging in and enjoying it all.


Now what about you?



T.D.

[1st time lasix]

First things first: how do I find these overlays? I believe true "overlays" come from your experienced set of selection skills..... when your own opinion differs from the general wagering public. Your handicapping opinion may result from any number of angles/fundamentals that you incorperate into your experience. {Pace analysis/current form/class evaluation/ bias/ breeding/distance evaluation/trainer intent/ speed figs/cycles/trip notes/horse watch lists.....etc etc} In my humble opinion.....identifying horses that should be at at lower odds based on the probability you assign.... or finding vulnerability among "odds on" horses you think should be higher odds ALONE will not make you a winner unless you also are very competent at using exotics. Studies show that the steep takeout kills those that attempt to slowly grind it out and most of my buddies prefer some regular action. I think many good selection handicappers are not as good as they should be with ticket wagering structure. It truly is not a an insignificant part of the game! Just my opinion. I think most need to use the win pool....the exacta pool, the trifecta pool and some pick 3's and some pick 4's. This Superfecta thread was my attempt to get some thoughtful discussion and some experienced knowledge from those here that sucessfully use the superfecta pool. Maybe those individuals don't exist???? :confused: I was not finding much on the topic elsewhere.

[twindouble]

I believe true "overlays" come from your experienced set of selection skills..... when your own opinion differs from the general wagering public. Your handicapping opinion may result from any number of angles/fundamentals that you incorperate into your experience. {Pace analysis/current form/class evaluation/ bias/ breeding/distance evaluation/trainer intent/ speed figs/cycles/trip notes/horse watch lists.....etc etc} In my humble opinion.....identifying horses that should be at at lower odds based on the probability you assign.... or finding vulnerability among "odds on" horses you think should be higher odds ALONE will not make you a winner unless you also are very competent at using exotics. Studies show that the steep takeout kills those that attempt to slowly grind it out and most of my buddies prefer some regular action. I think many good selection handicappers are not as good as they should be with ticket wagering structure. It truly is not a an insignificant part of the game! Just my opinion. I think most need to use the win pool....the exacta pool, the trifecta pool and some pick 3's and some pick 4's. This Superfecta thread was my attempt to get some thoughtful discussion and some experienced knowledge from those here that sucessfully use the superfecta pool. Maybe those individuals don't exist???? :confused: I was not finding much on the topic elsewhere.

FTL, what is it about the super that you don't understand that wasn't explained? Get off the idea of "Ticket Structure", that takes care of it's self when you figure out how the race will be run, like I said from "START TO FINISH".

I know you understand what it means to come up with the contenders, just think about it, you need to use 1/3 or more of the horses in the race just to hit it. So you have to figure out the best you can who's going to be where in the race and how they will finish, races within a race in other words. Not an easy feat, when some won't be running for 4th or even 3rd sometimes, that's why we say going "deep" using key horses be it one two or three if need be. When you think the speed will collapse, anything can fall in for 3rd or 4th or it opens opertunity to key others that have good value when it's obvious to you all the speed will quit. In most cases the speed in the race is bet down as you know. That don't mean they can't hold on for a piece even if it's the chalk in the race but when you beat them in the first two slots, better yet the the first three, you got a good score.

When you have a very compitive race here again there's normally value built in so when you get the race down to 5 or 6 it's still a good play boxing up. Every race presents diffferent conditions that force you to as you say, "structure" the ticket to meet those conditions, it's not about playing ABC/ ABC/ ABC/ ABCDE and having that ticket be your foundation to success. It could very well be in a given race, ABCDE BOX if that's how you see the race.

Why is it hard to undersand when you come up with a three horse race with value and you key those with ALL for 4th? Or you have one key horse with 4 or 5 others and the rest won't be there. 5/2367/2367/2,3,6,7,9 using the 5 for 1,2nd and 3rd, here again the 5 in the one you like, has value and your confident he'll be there. There's times when I only use one horse on top (that horse I'm also betting to win) and the others I like in the other slots, also one horse just first and second. You can be assured, I'll be going deep in most cases, ESP when I have real good value.


I'll tell what, handicap a super race today and just post the horses you think are contenders. I know you can do that, then not only I but I'm sure there's many here that could tell you how to play it. Just remember, " Races within a race". Toss the ones you think have no shot but don't pick a race with 6 horses. Hopefully you'll come up with a key or two.

T.D.