Sealing tracks sinks bettors in Mud

[karlskorner]

www.geocities.com/nywagering/

2nd article down under Pari Mutual News

Dick Scmidt said I was the only person he knew that handicapped "tractors". Just another part of the puzzle.

Karl

[ranchwest]

Have you heard the song? Does your wife think your tractor's sexy?

[karlskorner]

Probably a big hit on 'local" stations.

I am still of the opinion that after everybody runs all their the calculations, stats and queries, what did they do to the track this morning.?

Karl

[wes]

How do you adjust for tractor bias?

wes

[Rick]

karl,

Is it possible to draw any conclusions by using morning workout times or is the track changed too much after that?

[takeout]

I remember reading a thing by Davidowitz once where he was talking about track maintenance trying to alter the running style demands of the surface in mid card. Not good. The game is tough enough without them screwing with the track all through the card. If the track is biased they should leave it that way until that day's racing is over. Doesn't anyone ever think about the bettors? Must be tough on the pick 6 players.

[karlskorner]

Wes;

I do not concern myself with the word "bias". We discussed the track maintanance couple of months back. I am of the opinion that the so called "bias" changes everytime, before and between races, as the tractors move over the track When the harrows move the surface from the inside rail to the outside rail, there goes your "bias".

Rick;

The tractors are on the track at 4 AM, before the workouts and again at 10 AM after the workouts. Whatever conclusions you can determine from the workouts are gone after 10 AM and betwen every race. CRC (as well as other tracks I think) post at 10:30 AM on their site everyday, what was done to the track that morning. I print this and attach it to that days charts. When I am interested in a certain horse, I go to the chart for the last day he ran and check what condition the track was in along with any notes I may have made. If the track were composed of concrete and all the animals were "wind-up" and ran every race the same, life would be grand. If he ran his last first quarter in 22.2 than he should run it again today at the same distance A lot of handicappers "short change" the jockey.

Karl

[ranchwest]

The worst situation is where horses run straight to the finish line, such as in QH sprints. If the dirt gets piled in front of one end of the starting gate, it can make a lot of difference. At 550 yards, it is tough to see down to the starting gate, making matters worse.

Also, watch where the dirt gets raked at the point where the chute on the backside joins the oval. If the oval dirt is pushed over into the chute area, the inside horses will have tough going.

[Rick]

Karl,

But how can you decide what changes in track bias will occur if they change the track surface after morning workouts AND between each race? My solution is to bet that it will come back to the average of what it has been in the past, but I know that's not the best you can do. Since you seem to be mostly a one-track every-race kind of player, your opinion is highly valued by myself and others. Being able to adapt to the changing conditions in every race at one track is really the ultimate handicapping challenge.

[karlskorner]

ranchwest;

Ever watch the horses out of the #1 and sometimes #2 hole, when the 6 1/2f & 7F comes out of the chute. He looks like he hit a brick wall at that pileup and than comes on like a rocket along the rail, using the "energy" he needed to break through. Will he hold or fold ?

Rick;

Knowing what took place in the AM solves part of the problem. But just because they harrow the track after each race doesn't mean that there is a drastic change, sometimes it just cosmetic. It's when the lead tractor is 20' - 30" off the rail that they are changing comething, or when they go clockwise (big change) or when the water trucks follow each other rather than fan out

When they do something abnormal, it's because the Track Supt. wants to level the playing field. If I were using a "variant" (which I don't) I think I would average out, ignoring the extreme both ends.

Karl

[Dick Schmidt]

Karl,

I take it back, I guess you're not the only one to handicap the tractors. Two thoughts, from someone who totally ignores the entire question. Since I bet from home, I have no choice.

1) I once interviewed the head groundsman at Santa Anita for an article, and found that though he was very concerned about his racing surface, he never considered that what he did had any effect on the outcome of races. He was trying to make it a safe surface for the horses and have it look nice at the same time. At SA they fight to keep water in the track, especially when the Santa Anna winds blow. It gets dry, hard and fast quickly, and horses start breaking down or coming back with sore legs. His whole concept of track maintenance was to keep the track the same depth and consistency all the way around.

2) Jim Quinn (I'm sure most of you have read some of his stuff) used to live just a couple of blocks from Santa Anita. He is also a runner, and jogged all over the neighborhood. On dark days, or when the season was over, he used to wait until the morning works were over and then run the racetrack. Talk about gathering first hand information! He thought it was going to be like running in sand, but it wasn't that bad. He did notice that some days it was more tiring than others, but that he could never find much difference between the rail and other parts of the track. In the end, he was surprised by its consistency.


Though I'm sure there is some good information to be gathered from track maintenance, I'm also sure that you can completely ignore it (to the point of not noticing muddy or sloppy tracks) and still win. One observation I've made over the years is that people who are deeply concerned about track maintenance tend to subscribe to the "THEY don't want us (ME) to win" conspiracy theories, but that's another story.

Dick

[karlskorner]

You have summed up what I have been trying to say. When the Track Supt. sees an abnormal track, it's his "job" to correct the defect as soon as possible to insure the safety of horse and rider. It's not so much a "They don't want me to win" conspiracy theory, rather it's "What I know that can help me win" theory.

To repeat my Casey Stengal quote " When you come to a fork in the road, take it" You have gone on one road and I the other.

Karl

P.S. The reason Jim Quinn could find no difference in the surface of the track is because the crew had already "worked it" after the workouts or "dark days"

[delayjf]

Went to the website but could not find the article, did a search on the title of the thread, but again no joy. Help anyone???

[joeprunes]

Some 30 yrs ago I read about some great handicapper (at that time )would go to the track every day and stick a ruler in the ground and feel for depth and moist. Seems that helped him in his handicapping.

[karlskorner]

His name was Andy (can't remember his last name) used a hydrometer, measured the track every day. Published a tout sheet called "The Owl". Sat with him for a couple of years, had a 3 X 5 card on every horse running that day. If you and I are talking of the same person, one of the "best".

Karl