??Final Fractions v. Late Pace

[JustMissed]

I use the TSN Ultimate PP's w/ Comments which have the pace ratings E1,E2 & LP.

I have been calculating the final fraction(final two furlongs) and getting pretty good results. The math is not all that hard but a little cumbersome when working with different distances.

Since the late pace is a measure from the 2nd call to the finish, I have done a little test comparing the LP difference to the final fraction difference and have found the two to very close.

Does anybody here do final fraction calculations or use the BRIS/TSN pace ratings that could let me know if my thinking is valid. If so, you comments would be appreciated.

Thanks,

JustMissed


:)

[delayjf]

Could you go into more detail about exactly what you are doing with your comparisons of the LP rating and the final fraction. Sounds like you are comparing the raw final fraction with the LP rating. Is this correct.

[GR1@HTR]

If I understand correctly, final fraction and BRIS/TSN LP is almost the same

Distance.....LP measurement
5F...............1 Furlong
5.5F............1.5
6.................2.0
6.5..............2.5
7.................3.0
7.5..............3.5
8.................2.0
8.5..............2.5
9.................3.0
9.5..............3.5
10...............4
11...............5
12...............6 furlongs


Think the above figs are correct, if not feel free to correct.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by delayjf
Could you go into more detail about exactly what you are doing with your comparisons of the LP rating and the final fraction. Sounds like you are comparing the raw final fraction with the LP rating. Is this correct.

delayjf:

No way. I am of course adjusting the raw time of the horse on the lead by the gain/loss in lengths of my horse. I use 1/5th second rather than 1/6th second.

For example in a 6 panel dirt I may have two contenders as follows:

Horse A
Raw time :26 of horse on lead
Final fraction :26.3 of Horse A
LP 71 of Horse A

Horse B
Raw time :24.4 of horse on lead
Final fraction :25.2 of Horse B
LP 73 of Horse B

Just looking at the final fractions one would think that Horse B is faster than Horse A in the last two furlongs by 1 second or 5 lengths.

According to the pace numbers, Horse B is two pace points faster that Horse A which would be less than 5 lengths. I don't know the math behind the pace points but do believe that it is claimed that they take into consideration a track variant and other factors to make them comparable from race to race and track to track.

I have started calculating a fair odds line for my contenders only and the final fraction is only one of the impact values I use to make my odds adjustment. I only consider a 3 length difference as being significant so I don't have to be too exact. I am hoping to short cut the calculations and am thinking the LP fig might serve me as well as doing the final fraction calculation. I only do the final fractions for the contenders but a few minutes saved per race can add up when capping a whole card.

I hope I explained this well enough so you can see what I am doing.

JustMissed
:)

[BIG HIT]

Hi justmissed think the pace fig for bris\tsn is two pts equal 1 length.Also read some where any front runner haveing 3\5 of a second at the have over the rest field is at a big advantage.
Hope that is some help have a greatday

[JustMissed]

That looks good to me. I have some adjustments for the odds lengths but I usally don't calculate a FF for a real short sprint and I don't play many races over 9 panels anyway.

I think the guys who use or used the DRF had to calculate their own FF cause the form doesn't give the pace ratings anyway.

Thanks for the info.

JustMissed

[JustMissed]

Thanks for your help. I checked with TSN and it is 2 points per length for all pace ratings, E1,E2 & LP. Their speed points are different for the type of race, route v. sprint.

I think the FF or LP has impact value merit and if I can use the LP fig and not have to calculate the FF, why the heck go to the trouble. TSN also said it is adjusted for all tracks across North Am. so I should be able to compare a shipper from Belmont to the Calder horses without concern.

The pp's that I use also have a Track Bias page that shows what type of horse(EPS) have been winning my race, win % of holes & lenghts behinds at 2nd call. If I have two similar horses that should be close at the quarter pole-now all I have to do is give the horse with the higher LP at little better rating.

Anyway, thanks again.

JustMissed
:)