ML ODDS USAGE ?

[douglasw32]

This one has probably been answered before...

We all know thw Morning Line as a selection tool is of no use...
But the other extreme as an elimination.

Any hard stats on this one???

Like anything over 15-1, how many losers does that take you off if you blindly scratch those.

[Whirlaway]

Morning Line >= 15-1:

# of horses 40698
# of winners 1167
win % 2.9%

Average Winning Payoff: $46.70
ROI: -.33

[JustRalph]

can you run that on morning lines that Mike Battaglia sets?

Gotta be the worse ML's that I have ever seen............

[RXB]

Tampa's ML regularly lacks any sense of reality.

Ralph, that is your greatest avatar yet. I'm changing my sig line in honour of it.

[douglasw32]

Thanks Whirlaway.

Is 15-1 the breakpoint with that stat...

is 10-1 crap too
8-1 ?

[The Judge]

15-1 shots come in everyday at every track. You can't just say I'm not going to play 15-1 shots. If you do are you going to play the exotics ? You may want a 15-1 shot in 2nd or 3rd they probably don't hit in those spots as often as some of would wish but we need those long shots to have realy big days. What you need is a way to play 15-1 shots that have a chance of running better then their odds suggest.

[1st time lasix]

We all are on the lookout for horses that are being ignored by the public. Many deserve to be... but occasionally on the card there may be one or two "shots" that strike a nerve of excitement . As an exotic player I tend to use the win pool on horses at 9-1 or higher that I think have a much better probability than the odds suggest based on the pace, the distance, trainer or the surface of today's race. I then key them in the 2, 3 or 4 hole in the exotics. When I try to weed out contenders for my actual tickets to minimize cost...."odds on" horses that may be vulnerable.... and marginal horses that need everything to go right at double digit odds tend to come off the tops of my tickets. Sometimes I miss a huge ticket....more often longer shots hit underneath if they are truly good enough to compete at the class level.

[Whirlaway]

Upon further review, the dividing point seems to be 20/1 morning line.

ML Odds
<1 221 runners 54.3% winners -.20 ROI
>=1 and <2 -- 5597 runners -- 40.3% winners -16.6 ROI
>=2 and <4 -- 15782 runners -- 27.9% winners -20.6 ROI
>=3 and <5 -- 40757 runners -- 18.3% winners -20.2% ROI
>=5 and <10 -- 54578 runners -- 10.5% winners -21.1% ROI
10 or 12 -- 33522 runners -- 6.1% winners -21.9% ROI
15 -- 16494 runners -- 4.0% winners -22.3% ROI
20 -- 19018 runners -- 2.3% winners -35.9% ROI
30 or 50 -- 5186 runners -- 1.0% winners -57.2% ROI

Note, the only morning line numbers that oddsmakers use at 10 and above are 10, 12, 15, 20, 30, 50.

[RXB]

It's basically the same as the final odds. Horses that go off above 25/1 are utterly brutal bets as a group, far exceeding the takeout loss. Now, occasionally you find one that really does have a legit chance, but for the most part people who are wagering on these animals are just fooling themselves.

[njcurveball]

The morning line is usually done 2 or more days in advance. It is often done with limited past performances and usually the whole card is capped in less than an hour.

Sometimes different people make it depending on the day of the week. At tracks like Charles Town they often use the same ML odds for each race. One 5-2 and two 7-2s for the first 3 choices, etc.

The Morning Line can give you a good estimation of the horses chances to win in relation to one another.

If it were simply a game of betting the winner, morning line would be a significant factor. For example, if you and your friends all put up money and you got to take the ML favorite each race, you would win the most at the end of the year.

30-1 ML horses win and often not only pay good, but look good as well. Check the thread on here about the horse at Keeneland that paid $96. WHY was she 30-1 ML? Because it was a maiden horse in a stakes race. The guy making the line doesn't spend much time on each horse. 60 minutes for the whole card is usually less than 30 seconds looking at each horse.

You can throw out a lot of losers if you simply look at the tote board and toss all the horses 10-1 or more. Of course, you are tossing a lot of profit out as well.

Jim

[RXB]

10/1 is not the point of issue. 25/1+ is. And while we can all find the occasional horse at a monster price that actually has a legit shot, it's a relatively rare event. The stats are overwhelmingly negative.

[LurkingBettor]

Whirl,

What is the time frame for your study?

Thanks,
LB

[betovernetcapper]

I had some time to kill while waiting for a report to finish and thought I'd check out just how bad MNR's line really was.
In the 9th race he predictied the #1 at 5-2 and it went off at 4-5
In races 1-5-7 the tote price of the ML favorite was $1. off
In races 2-3-4-6-8-10 the tote and ML fav prices were less than $1 off.
The average differece between the ML Fav and tote was .69-thats sixty nine cents.
The morning line favorite won 6 of 10 races and in spite of being in a dead heat in one, had an ROI of 1.60
For an hour's work without full access to the DRF-that's some amazing handicapping. :faint:

[Speed Figure]

I think racing would be far better If there was no ML.

[ryesteve]

I had some time to kill while waiting for a report to finish and thought I'd check out just how bad MNR's line really was.
In the 9th race he predictied the #1 at 5-2 and it went off at 4-5
That's not how I'd determine how good or bad a ML is. Every morning line purposely inflates the odds of the favorite and underestimates the odds of longshots. What I'd be looking at is how far off the ML ranks deviate from the final odds ranks.

[stu]

The morning line is usually done 2 or more days in advance. It is often done with limited past performances and usually the whole card is capped in less than an hour.

As a morning line maker, I can tell you that on my circuit I usually have to turn in my morning line 72 hours in advance due to press time of the on-track program.

With shippers who are enterred without papers in the office, I often don't have the most up to date running lines with which to work.

With respect to odds I usually spend 3 to 4 hours at the most. However, after Tuesdays entries for Sunday, I have approximately 1 1/2 to 2 hours maximum to complete the line before press time. Despite being 96 hours in advance due to dark days in the racing office I have the shortest turn around time of the whole week.

Stu

p.s. Remember it is the morning line makers' job to guess the post time odds not to select winners :-)

[mcikey01]

Upon further review, the dividing point seems to be 20/1 morning line.

ML Odds
<1 221 runners 54.3% winners -.20 ROI
>=1 and <2 -- 5597 runners -- 40.3% winners -16.6 ROI
>=2 and <4 -- 15782 runners -- 27.9% winners -20.6 ROI
>=3 and <5 -- 40757 runners -- 18.3% winners -20.2% ROI
>=5 and <10 -- 54578 runners -- 10.5% winners -21.1% ROI
10 or 12 -- 33522 runners -- 6.1% winners -21.9% ROI
15 -- 16494 runners -- 4.0% winners -22.3% ROI
20 -- 19018 runners -- 2.3% winners -35.9% ROI
30 or 50 -- 5186 runners -- 1.0% winners -57.2% ROI

Note, the only morning line numbers that oddsmakers use at 10 and above are 10, 12, 15, 20, 30, 50.

iNTERESTING STUFF....Do you have the data that shows the average final odds of the runners in each ML odds range? (the average final odds of the winners in each ML odds range can be extrapolated from the data you displayed)

[betovernetcapper]

That's not how I'd determine how good or bad a ML is. Every morning line purposely inflates the odds of the favorite and underestimates the odds of longshots. What I'd be looking at is how far off the ML ranks deviate from the final odds ranks.

I think I mentioned this in my post-average difference=69 cents :)

[PriceAnProbability]

Every morning line purposely inflates the odds of the favorite and underestimates the odds of longshots.

That's not necessarily true, because many times the 2nd or 3rd choice on the ML winds up the favorite.

People severely underestimate the ML at most tracks. They do a good job as a general rule, but the exceptions stand out.