Ky Derby favorite getting serious

[DrugSalvastore]

Sweetnorthernsaint, this year's Kentucky Derby favorite, turned in a six furlong workout in 1:11 3/5ths this morning. Over four full seconds faster than the other couple of horses to work the distance.

This horse last ran in May, with a 2nd place finish in the Preakness, where he grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate, had a MUCH more difficult trip than winner Bernardini had, and still ran a big figure while finishing 2nd.

It looks as though the foot injury he suffered coming out of the gate in the Preakness is healed..and if so...his additon should add a lot to American racing over the winter. With so many top American horses owned by the Maktoums expected to ship to Dubai over the winter...any kind of addition is refreshing to hear about.

We also had a promising 3-year-old flop last weekened. Bright One, who was said to be "sick" weeks before the Travers Stakes...might actually have really been sick! He ran like a sick horse when finishing a very dismal 7th in the Indiana Derby at 3/5 odds...a horse who he emphatically beat in his last start dead heated for the win in that race.

A couple years ago, I spent a few months in Kentucky working for a pretty accomplished trainer on that circuit, he let me stay at his place with his family, and really was able to teach me a lot about horsemanship in that short time. He told me that it is harder to bring a horse back from sickness than it is to bring a horse back from most injuries.

Maybe Bright One really was sick. However, I'm still pretty skeptical that Discreet Cat really was sick over the late spring and early summer.

[the_fat_man]

This is great news. Now I can look forward, this winter, to a renewal of the SNS Achilles of Troy rivalry (assuming the latter makes it back).

Was thinking of heading south this winter but I'd definitely stay in NY for this one.

I'm serious :cool:

[DrugSalvastore]

Hey, and those who follow California racing are surely looking forward to the renewel of the Your Tent or Mine VS Stevie Wonderboy rivalry this winter!

With all the Maktoums beasts going to Dubai....I guess we need something to look forward to!

[classhandicapper]

This an unbelieveable crop of 3YO colts when you also include all the promising ones that were temporarily out of action but ARE coming back.

There is a pretty reliable way to tell if a horse is vulnerable when it comes back from sickness. If the horse typically works very regularly but there's a huge gap in the WOs (during the supposed sick period) in addition to the layoff, and not much hard impressive work recently, they often come back short.

I thought Bright One was very vulnerable to throwing in a clinker. If there was anyone in the race with just a little more ability I would have taken a stab against him. (he did have a tough trip though)

I think Invasor should be on everyone's hot list for the BC Classic. Unless he makes it back to the track quickly and is very impressive in the mornings coming into the race, he is highly vulnerable to being off the board despite his obvious merits.

[the_fat_man]

I think Invasor should be on everyone's hot list for the BC Classic. Unless he makes it back to the track quickly and is very impressive in the mornings coming into the race, he is highly vulnerable to being off the board despite his obvious merits.

I thought that Inasor ran a fever for one, two days at most. I suppose it was enough to disrupt his training for the JCGC but why would it be an issue now?

Here's what I think about Invasor:

if he's in TIPTOP shape, run him in the CLASSIC but as a MATCH RACE within a race against SUN KING

if he's still feeling the effects of the 1/2 day fever, a month or so after the fact, run him in a MATCH race against JACQUES WHO

I'd pay to see that

what's my point? after being all out to beat Sun King (who arguably had a poorer trip), I wouldn't be expecting too much out of him in the Classic

[cj]

what's my point? after being all out to beat Sun King (who arguably had a poorer trip), I wouldn't be expecting too much out of him in the Classic

I'm not sure many would argue that Sun King had a poorer trip. I certainly didn't see it that way.

[the_fat_man]

I'm not sure many would argue that Sun King had a poorer trip. I certainly didn't see it that way.

It was yet another OPTICAL ILLUSION on my part.

If, going into the race, my figures, or whatever, tell me that Invasor is a much better horse than Sun King, arguably the best older horse in the country, and,
given the setup of the race, I win by a headbob, I'm:

1) smarting

2) ReEvaluating

3) not really pushing him for the Classic

The game can't be as easy as watching for SIMPLE SETUPS, last move horse in a multiple moves race GETS the BEST TRIP, e.g.
and then drawing generic conclusions about the race.

Don't get me wrong, I understand and respect what you're doing with your figures, and, frankly, it's probably the most logical way to pursue the game.

Yet, I think that figures lock one into a theory relative interpretation of trips (not necessarily the case in the present example) and overall evaluation of ability.

(Not just figures, necessarily; a graph of the race shape could lead to the same result.)

I also think that figures 'come a race too late' in certain (if not many) cases.

Moreover, as you mentioned on another thread, one needs to be creative; to do things that most aren't in order to stay competitive.

P.S.

Do you find it interesting that Invasor entered the stretch 4-5, Sun King 6 or so (2 paths wider) and they both finished well on the inside?

[DrugSalvastore]

Sweetnorthernsaint has been entered in an Opt claiming race at Laurel going 7 furlongs next Thursday.

Razor Ramon Dominguez is named to ride.

Expect A LOT of scratches.