Beyers from Belmont Saturday

[cj]

Fleet Indian 104
Honey Ryder 103
Henny Hughes 113
English Channel 107
Bernardini 117

[GlenninOhio]

Fractions:

JCCC (1-1/4 mi.): 25,:48, 1:114, 1:354, 2:01

Beldame (1-1/8 mi.): 234; 461, 1:101, 1:352, 1:483

[rastajenk]

I'm curious to see Lava Man's from Saturday. I notice he didn't put a new number up on the DRF Leaderboard, so it must have been less than 109. The bums he beat are always good for getting about a hundred, so it couldn't have been much more than that.

[cj]

Lava Man 109
Bordonaro 119

[GMB@BP]

Lava Man 109
Bordonaro 119

i dont think anyone watched the race, but Bordonaro was HUGE, the way he accelerated off that half mile was impressive.

[cj]

I think the 119 will lead to him being overbet. He went pretty slow early, so he should have run big. I don't think he ran any better than he has in the past:

BORDONARO 5yo G CA E

OSA 10/07/2006 6.0 Ancttlbc-G1 | 106 117 106 117 | 123| 111*
DMR 07/30/2006 6.0 Bcrosbyh-G1 | 108 105 107 104 | 102| 103
OP 04/13/2006 6.0 Ctfltsph-G3 | 117 115 116 115 | 115| 114*
GP 01/28/2006 6.0 RrSunmilsprn300k| 109 103 108 103 | 100| 104*
HOL 12/03/2005 6.0 Voundrwd-G3 | 118 112 118 112 | 110| 113*
OSA 11/06/2005 6.0 SsCalcpstsph50k | 105 111 105 111 | 115| 106*
DMR 09/07/2005 6.0 RrPirtsbntyh80k | 103 98 102 94 | 90| 93
DMR 08/24/2005 5.0 OC40000n1x | 104 94 102 94 | 89| 97*
DMR 07/30/2005 6.0 SsOC25000n1x | 94 106 94 106 | 113| 99*
HOL 04/30/2005 6.0 Alw40000s | 96 91 96 91 | 89| 93*

HENNY HUGHES 3yo C KY EP

BEL 10/07/2006 6.0 Vosburgh-G1 | 100 111 100 111 | 117| 106*
SAR 08/26/2006 7.0 Kngsbshp-G1 | 117 109 117 109 | 105| 113*
MTH 07/01/2006 6.0 Jershrbc-G3 | 94 108 94 108 | 115| 103*
BEL 10/29/2005 8.5 Bcjuvnle-G1 | 104 106 104 104 | 105| 113
BEL 10/08/2005 8.0 Champagn-G1 | 113 93 113 89 | 77| 108
SAR 08/27/2005 7.0 Hopeful-G1 | 111 97 106 89 | 81| 102
SAR 07/28/2005 6.0 Sarspcl-G2 | 98 105 98 105 | 108| 112*
BEL 07/04/2005 5.5 Tremont100k | 85 93 85 93 | 97| 98*
MTH 06/17/2005 5.0 MdSpWt | 73 66 72 66 | 63| 78*

[GMB@BP]

I see this sometimes with the numbers, he went 43 3/5ths i think and got a 106 pace, what would he have to have run to get a legit pace number, say 115, 42 flat?

[Valuist]

A 119 would for Bordonaro would mean Thor's Echo ran a 116, which I find hard to believe. I actually thought Thor's Echo probably ran the better race. But both will have to run w/out race day Bute at Churchill.

[cj]

While I'm at it, here are Lava Man, Invasor, and Bernardini:

LAVA MAN 5yo H CA EP

OSA 10/07/2006 9.0 Gdwdbch-G2 | 109 109 109 109 | 110| 109*
DMR 08/20/2006 10.0 Pacifccl-G1 | 107 110 107 110 | 112| 108*
HOL 07/08/2006 10.0 Holgldcp-G1 | 91 108 91 108 | 116| 102*
HOL 06/10/2006 10.0 Cwhtghmh-G1 | 88 106 88 106 | 115| 98*
HOL 04/30/2006 9.0 SsKhaled150k | 116 107 116 107 | 103| 111*
SA 03/04/2006 10.0 Sah-G1 | 111 113 111 113 | 113| 110*
SA 01/28/2006 9.0 RrSunmilclsc1000| 131 98 117 98 | 88| 104*
TOK 11/26/2005 10.5 ThJpnCpDr-G1 | | | X
BEL 10/01/2005 10.0 Jkyclbgc-G1 | 119 106 111 53 | 25| 50
DMR 08/21/2005 10.0 Pacifccl-G1 | 121 107 121 107 | 99| 111

INVASOR 4yo C ARG EP

SAR 08/05/2006 9.0 Whitneyh-G1 | 116 113 113 113 | 113| 111*
BEL 07/01/2006 10.0 Suburbnh-G1 | 115 111 115 111 | 109| 110*
PIM 05/19/2006 9.5 Pimspclh-G1 | 114 111 112 111 | 110| 110*

BERNARDINI 3yo C KY EP

BEL 10/07/2006 10.0 Jkyclbgc-G1 | 118 117 118 117 | 116| 118*
SAR 08/26/2006 10.0 Travers-G1 | 107 116 107 116 | 121| 116*
SAR 07/29/2006 9.0 Jimdandy-G2 | 120 114 120 114 | 111| 119*
PIM 05/20/2006 9.5 Preaknes-G1 | 122 113 114 113 | 112| 119*
AQU 04/29/2006 8.0 Withers-G3 | 96 103 95 103 | 107| 103*
GP 03/04/2006 8.0 MdSpWt | 90 92 90 92 | 94| 97*
GP 01/07/2006 6.0 MdSpWt | 91 81 81 71 | 66| 81

[cj]

I see this sometimes with the numbers, he went 43 3/5ths i think and got a 106 pace, what would he have to have run to get a legit pace number, say 115, 42 flat?

Of course not, the track was very fast. To get a 115, he would have had to run about 2/5ths faster.

[classhandicapper]

I think the Bornadaro/Henny Hughes matchup is a good one. They are both very good and have good early speed etc..... I hope they send Bornadaro because I think they will have to supplement him. They are already talking about coming back in 4 weeks being too soon. I remember when 4 weeks was a negative because it was too long.

[Valuist]

Any chance Thor's Echo is going?

[cj]

I edited in Henny Hughes in the thread below. He went even slower. Didn't want GMB to think I have an East Coast bias! :)

[cj]

Any chance Thor's Echo is going?

He certainly should, he was very impressive on Saturday.

[classhandicapper]

He certainly should, he was very impressive on Saturday.

He can't. He needs 3 years off or he'll bounce off that effort. :bang:

[GMB@BP]

I edited in Henny Hughes in the thread below. He went even slower. Didn't want GMB to think I have an East Coast bias! :)

you dont get any more east then yourself :)

I say this because a few years back Azeri ran in the ladys secret, on a day were the track was pretty quick, geared down she went like 46 and 141 and got a 102 beyer and a slow pace figure....after that date I always woner what it would take to get a fast number at santa anita when the track is overly fast. 43 1/5th, not sure I have seen that before at santa anita and have the horse win..

[ghostyapper]

That beyer for bernardini seems a little high.

I know theres more that goes into beyers than just raw times but 2:01 1/5 over the belmont track doesn't warrant a 117. 3 years ago mineshaft ran a 2:00 1/5 goldcup and got a 114.

[classhandicapper]

I see this sometimes with the numbers, he went 43 3/5ths i think and got a 106 pace, what would he have to have run to get a legit pace number, say 115, 42 flat?

The paces tend to be quicker in CA because the tracks are generally speed favoring. Those faster average paces are probably reflected in the PAR for the pace call (faster for the same final time) at the track and/or the daily track variant.

So a 43 3/5 pace in CA won't earn a huge pace figure, but in reality the horses are usually running faster.

I generally assume a pace figure of 100 earned out in CA is actually faster than a 100 pace figure earned at say Belmont, but in terms of impact on final time (or PF) they are equal.

I hope that makes sense. The complications are endless. That's why I advocate also looking at field qualities and watching races.

Is there really any doubt that Bordonaro is a top shelf sprinter even if he's not the best?

[GMB@BP]

so class,

you feel that say bordornaro ran faster then say henny hughes did this past weekend, even though the pace figures were the same?

[classhandicapper]

so class,

you feel that say bordornaro ran faster then say henny hughes did this past weekend, even though the pace figures were the same?

I don't want to go that far because I haven't actually crunched any numbers, but I would say "yes", he "probably" showed more early speed than it appears based on numbers. Of course that doesn't mean that HH couldn't run quicker if he wanted to. It could also mean that Bordonaro would drop dead if he tried that pace at another track. To be clear, I think the PFs accurately reflect their performances though because it builds the track into a bit.

[GMB@BP]

I don't want to go that far because I haven't actually crunched any numbers, but I would say "yes", he "probably" showed more early speed than it appears based on numbers. Of course that doesn't mean that HH couldn't run quicker if he wanted to. It could also mean that Bordonaro would drop dead if he tried that pace at another track. To be clear, I think the PFs accurately reflect their performances though because it builds the track into a bit.

like keeneland.....we have had this discussion this weekend :lol:

[the_fat_man]

I don't want to go that far because I haven't actually crunched any numbers, but I would say "yes", he "probably" showed more early speed than it appears based on numbers. Of course that doesn't mean that HH couldn't run quicker if he wanted to. It could also mean that Bordonaro would drop dead if he tried that pace at another track. To be clear, I think the PFs accurately reflect their performances though because it builds the track into a bit.

I hope this horse makes the BC

cause he's gonna burn up alot of money

[cj]

I hope this horse makes the BC

cause he's gonna burn up alot of money

Which one?

[the_fat_man]

Which one?

Bordonaro

[ryesteve]

That beyer for bernardini seems a little high.

I know theres more that goes into beyers than just raw times but 2:01 1/5 over the belmont track doesn't warrant a 117. 3 years ago mineshaft ran a 2:00 1/5 goldcup and got a 114.
The speed of the surface can change day-to-day. What relevance is there in a comparison to a race that was run 3 years ago?

[ghostyapper]

The speed of the surface can change day-to-day. What relevance is there in a comparison to a race that was run 3 years ago?

Don't you think its a little coincidental that bernardini keeps running into these "slow surfaces" that make his unimpressive times look impressive?

[cj]

Don't you think its a little coincidental that bernardini keeps running into these "slow surfaces" that make his unimpressive times look impressive?

Not really. The new track super for NYRA has been making the track play slower with more cushion for several meets now.

[GMB@BP]

Bordonaro

i am not sure he will be there, his owners are not a super rich elite, they claimed this horse for 32k, not sure they want to put up 200k to have him.

[ghostyapper]

Not really. The new track super for NYRA has been making the track play slower with more cushion for several meets now.

That didn't seem to affect henny

[cj]

It is a little tough to compare a 6f race to 1 1/4 races, especially at Belmont where the weird starting position can cause some strange times due to gate placement.

[classhandicapper]

I hope this horse makes the BC cause he's gonna burn up a lot of money

I'm not so sure he will be the favorite. I think HH has a bigger reputation and might be favored. He was favored over Silver Train.

I think another dangerous horse out of CA is Siren Lure. If the pace gets hot, he's got a nice explosive kick. I was there for his race at DMR (hit the exacta) and was visually impressed.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not so sure he will be the favorite. I think HH has a bigger reputation and might be favored. He was favored over Silver Train.

I think another dangerous horse out of CA is Siren Lure. If the pace gets hot, he's got a nice explosive kick. I was there for his race at DMR (hit the exacta) and was visually impressed.

he is a former claimer, and claimers dont win breeders cup races ;)

[the_fat_man]

I'm not so sure he will be the favorite. I think HH has a bigger reputation and might be favored. He was favored over Silver Train.

I think another dangerous horse out of CA is Siren Lure. If the pace gets hot, he's got a nice explosive kick. I was there for his race at DMR (hit the exacta) and was visually impressed.

I don't know anything about Siren Lure so I can't comment. I need to look at some of his races.

A 'hot' pace favors HH, IMO (or Silver Train, should he resurface).

Not saying that the horse will be the favorite

only that he will get a chunk of money.

I was also somewhat impressed by Atilla's Storm's race off the long layoff. HH was extended to get by him. Wonder where/how he comes back.

The SPRINT could turn out to be a very nice race.

[ghostyapper]

It is a little tough to compare a 6f race to 1 1/4 races, especially at Belmont where the weird starting position can cause some strange times due to gate placement.

I agree but remember it was a 4 horse field. Its not like Bernardini was stuck in the 10 path around the turn.

So you believe the 117 was legit?

[delayjf]

Looking at CJ numbers I was a bit surprized that Bernadini's pace number was so high - the raw splits seemed low to me compared to other - But they are what they are, and that would make this his best effort to date.

[ryesteve]

Don't you think its a little coincidental that bernardini keeps running into these "slow surfaces" that make his unimpressive times look impressive?
Given that he's winning every race by a dozen lengths, the alternative is the "coincidence" that every horse he runs against runs a Beyer 10 or 15 points worse than what they usually run.