Half Million P6 carryover Sat at Belmont

[OTM Al]

This will at least make the short fields at Belmont Saturday a little more interesting

http://www.drf.com/news/article/79354.html

Could be a record number of paying tickets

[cj]

This can probably be hit with a $16 ticket.

[rrpic6]

Good thing I was too busy to handicap today's card! Imagine the frustration, thinking you have a legitimate chance for a big score and something goofy happens...or was it intentional....so bettors play the small fields Saturday?:ThmbDown:

[highnote]

Lucky break for NYRA to have the 500,000 pick 6 postponed a day so it can be held on Super Saturday. That should boost their handle for the day. Maybe it can even help stave off bankruptcy!

[samyn on the green]

Wonder If we did a challenge how many cappers that post here could land this pick 6 on a $96 ticket or less? Nobody is sharp enough to land this on $16 ticket, if you can land it post don't knock it or redboard it.


This carryyover is a double edged sword. On one side, If you have a strong opinion on three singles it is a great play with half a mil already sitting in the pool, that is free value money. The other side is that if you have the opinion that you could beat one, two or all of the heavy faves you will be in for the bonanza of a lifetime. There will be tons of guppys going for the easy scared money score here on pissant $16 tickets. This may be the day to scoop those guppys up. Post your tickets below, $96 limit.

[samyn on the green]

Two tickets total investment $96

BEL R5 P6

6/2,3,5,6/2,3,5,6,7/1/1,6/1 =$80

2,9/2,5/2,5/1/1/1=$16

[rrpic6]

$96.00 Ticket

3,4,5,9/1,2,6/5,7/1/1,3/1

Before scratches ...will update if necessary.

[betchatoo]

9/24/457/15/1236/1

$96 ticket

[OTM Al]

Well, since I started all this.....

4,7,9//2,6//5,7//1,2//1//1

That's what I'll probably play today and that's only $48

[highnote]

$2 pick 6 quick pick, please. :D

[twindouble]

Are you guy's losing it? Is it so important to show your handicapping ability to possibly give away a few thousand dollars or more, ESP when the conditions suit many here, these horses are not the bottom of the barrow. These carryovers don't come along every day you know.



T.D.

[highnote]

These carryovers don't come along every day you know.
T.D.

At least not in NY anyway. SoCal yes. NY no.

[twindouble]

At least not in NY anyway. SoCal yes. NY no.

That's right, I was paying attention to Del Mar.

[ryesteve]

What the heck...

1,6,7,9/2/1,4,5,7/1/1/1
1,9/2/4,7/1,5/1,4/1
1,6,7,9/4/4,7/1,5/1/1

Total=$96

[twindouble]

I can understand why some are willing to post their picks thinking with the short fields and the likely hood of chalks dominating today, what the heck ,no harm done.

There's other aspects of the conditions I take into consideration. One being with the short fields and what appears to be chalks winning the whales will stay home, so I don't see huge money going after this carryover. That opens up opportunity for us "little guys", beat just two chalks and your looking at a decent score for most of us. No, I'm not looking for a huge payoff today either but what you see should be kept under the belt.


Good luck,

T.D.

[rrpic6]

TwinD:

Your comments about today's Pick 6 pool--- possibly giving up money by submitting picks, whales not playing as much due to short fields, with chalks possibly dominating, etc.---seems similar to the 10cent super thread. We never know whether the little guys' money is diluting the pool, or the whales' money is helping the payoff. We have to wait for the official results, and then there are still going to be assumptions.

[ryesteve]

No, I'm not looking for a huge payoff today either but what you see should be kept under the belt.

You mean people out there are going to be structuring their ticket based on what they see posted here??? Heaven help 'em...

[twindouble]

TwinD:

Your comments about today's Pick 6 pool--- possibly giving up money by submitting picks, whales not playing as much due to short fields, with chalks possibly dominating, etc.---seems similar to the 10cent super thread. We never know whether the little guys' money is diluting the pool, or the whales' money is helping the payoff. We have to wait for the official results, and then there are still going to be assumptions.

I'm far from being a whale but even I will tighten the belt on this one and I've never gone for multiple tickets on one combination in the pick 6. :D Anyone who puts ten grand in needs their head examined. Not that crap don't happen, break downs and so on but not likely besides who would wager that kind of money hoping for bad trips. I think there's two maybe three races that are in doubt, a modest play is in order.

T.D.

[toetoe]

3,7,9,10 with

6, with

1,4, with

1,2,4,5, with

1, with

1.

[rrpic6]

Revised Pick 6 after scratches: Total still $96.00

3,5,6,9/1,2,6/5,7/1/1,3/1

[Murph]

$72 stab

6,7,9/1,4,5/5,2/1,2/1/1

Murph

[TurfRuler]

$500K at Belmont, NY, east coast...how rare is that! Back in 1977 or 78 when California started the Pick6 (I know about Caliente) this was the norm amount of a carryover and more up to 1M. What is not the every day thing on the "right" coast is a carryover of this amount. There have been several since the scrutiny of medication and substances (alledgely used) by the racing officals, that I believe has lead to the few carryovers in the recent past. Don't get me wrong, but the low prices of winners at the NY and other east coast tracks, since time began, can lead one to believe that the "Wise Guys" know the results before hand. If the close scrutiny has caused this massive carryover, let it continue, and keep on trying to hit no matter whether you post your plays before or after. Dilution of payoffs in a Pick6 wager is better than the "Little Old Lady" from Pasadena hitting on a $2 ticket and we professional players (and we know who we are) missing.

[chickenhead]

$96

$4 -- 3,6,9,10 // 2,5 // 7 // 5 // 1A,3,6 // 1

[betovernetcapper]

6 9 10 with 1 with 7 with 1 4 5 with 1 with 1 2

[ryesteve]

Only halfway in, and no one here is alive. Yeah, we're good... :D

[chickenhead]

thankfully real life doesn't have $96 limits :)

[rrpic6]

This is what the ticket would look like if we combined everyone's choices:


1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10/all/all/1,2,4,5/1,2,3,4,6/1,2/

$19,200 ticket.

[OTM Al]

I turned my $48 ticket into a $64 tickret by going 6-9 on the first leg. Yeah. 4 $11 consos. Can't believe I forgot about the Grand Slam which turned Bernardini into a 7-2 shot. That was the best bet of the day.......

Don't even want to talk about the NTRA P4 where I singled everything but the Shadwell, in which I had 5 horses.......didn't win that either. D'OH is the word for the day

[Ron]

The GSL ended in the 9th.

[twindouble]

For those of you that picked R Clear Victory, hats off to you. That's the one that beat me out of the 6. Even if Secret Agent wins, I still get squat for a payoff.


Good luck next time.


T.D.

[rrpic6]

For those of you that picked R Clear Victory, hats off to you. That's the one that beat me out of the 6. Even if Secret Agent wins, I still get squat for a payoff.
T.D.

Ditto. My real ticket, I spent $144 and used 6 horses in the 1st leg, but left out R Clear Victory, then hit the last 5 legs using a total of 9 horses.:bang: Tough to use a horse with the slowest fig on turf and ranked last in prime power. Assmussen's Team and the Morning Line maker (6-1) knew better. My line was 25-1.

[twindouble]

I went 3 deep in the first leg. I always go back to see what I missed, in this case I would have done nothing different. Like I said the card didn't warrant going to deep.
Talking about this sparked a little story.

I had worked a double shift, had no time to study that morning. Got to OTB for the 2nd race with a couple buddies and ended up handicapping in between races.
Turns out I flat bet the winner in all the pick 6 races, 4 that had good value. The pick 6 paid huge around 60 grand. :eek: That was big back then. Anyway afterwards we went to our fav watering hole for dinner plus whatever else we could come up with. :cool: My buddies started blabbing about how I would had that pick 6, I quickly set them straight with just a few words. "The only tickets that count are the ones you played." In other words who's to say I would have played it right? I remember very clearly going to the window still running the race in my mind and deciding my bet with one person in front of me. I'm sure there's a lot stories out there that fit this example.


Good luck,

T.D.

[chickenhead]

I always have a look at who's going to be leading on the grass, that's where most of the prices come from, especially in the lower class events. You get Prado -- who's great on the front end. To boot, horse's last is 2nd highest on CJs perf figs.

He had plenty going for him.

[twindouble]

I always have a look at who's going to be leading on the grass, that's where most of the prices come from, especially in the lower class events. You get Prado -- who's great on the front end. To boot, horse's last is 2nd highest on CJs perf figs.

He had plenty going for him.

I wasn't infering you guys didn't have reasons to use the horse, it's just that I didn't. Maybe if you posted a those reasons, that would have given me something to think about.


T.D.

[chickenhead]

I thought you wanted to know why, that's all.

[twindouble]

I thought you wanted to know why, that's all.

There I go again. Sorry about that.

T.D.

[chickenhead]

well Silver Train effectively busted me as he's all I had left on my tickets when we got to that race. I saw just a perfect set-up for him yesterday..and more or less got it -- he just didn't show up.

I've never been sure which is worse, mishandicapping a race or getting beat for something you couldn't foresee -- but they both feel pretty shitty.

I was giving myself a chance to beat English Channel, as I thought that was the best chance for a good payoff. But going after him limited my options for A horses in the other races.

[horsemaven]

For what it's worth, after the fact, I did have the pick 6 ($785) at Belmont yesterday. I haven't visited for awhile so I just came across this thread otherwise I would have weighed in earlier. At this site, I'm always lerry of being called a red-boarder. I bet three tickets ($160, $144 and $32) and hit all three. That's the first time in my 25-year horse betting career that's happened. I had two winning tickets on a previous big carryover day that paid $2000 each. I hit at least 15 pick 6s in the late 1980s including one that paid around $11K(Forty Niner winning the feature at Saratoga) when I used to chase that exotic. I rarely play them anymore (twice-a-year) because even on massive carryover days, the small bettor is at such a disadvantage. Did I receive value? Yes! The parlay, based on the actual price of the winners, was around $550. If you combined the prices of first two winners with the actual pick 4 payoff ($33), the parlay is about $734. My question is how much more is the pick 6 payoff if Balletto wins the sixth at $8.

horsemaven

[twindouble]

For what it's worth, after the fact, I did have the pick 6 ($785) at Belmont yesterday. I haven't visited for awhile so I just came across this thread otherwise I would have weighed in earlier. At this site, I'm always lerry of being called a red-boarder. I bet three tickets ($160, $144 and $32) and hit all three. That's the first time in my 25-year horse betting career that's happened. I had two winning tickets on a previous big carryover day that paid $2000 each. I hit at least 15 pick 6s in the late 1980s including one that paid around $11K(Forty Niner winning the feature at Saratoga) when I used to chase that exotic. I rarely play them anymore (twice-a-year) because even on massive carryover days, the small bettor is at such a disadvantage. Did I receive value? Yes! The parlay, based on the actual price of the winners, was around $550. If you combined the prices of first two winners with the actual pick 4 payoff ($33), the parlay is about $734. My question is how much more is the pick 6 payoff if Balletto wins the sixth at $8.

horsemaven


Good for you on the pick 6. I think Balletto was used very heavy in the pick 6, but I used Fleet Indian and Teammate. There was two or three to key off of in the 6, depending on how you saw the races, so just a guess I'd say he may have added another five to eight hundred, he was second choice at 3-1. Anyway water over the dam for me.

T.D.

[toetoe]

I only get about $200 when I compute the parlay. Now, the NTRA was juicy too, although $44 won't pay the rent. The parlay would be about $15, making the 3-to-20 horse in the nightcap about a $6.60 horse. Best value since Candy Ride paid $6.40 in the Pacific Classic in 2003. :D

[twindouble]

I only get about $200 when I compute the parlay. Now, the NTRA was juicy too, although $44 won't pay the rent. The parlay would be about $15, making the 3-to-20 horse in the nightcap about a $6.60 horse. Best value since Candy Ride paid $6.40 in the Pacific Classic in 2003. :D

I don't know toe, the horse could be 3-1 on the tote but be 4 or 5-1 in the pool or less than 3-1 . Regardless, two to eight hundred more wouldn't excite me for hitting a pick 6 but better than losing.


T.D.