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View Full Version : Is it just me?


kitts
10-06-2006, 01:56 PM
Handicapping tournaments/contests used to be based on win bets, sometimes even place bets. These were fun, IMHO.

Nowadays, almost all of them include exotics betting which I think muddies the water a bunch. Four $20 horses in one day loses to a bonkers tri? Granted, it takes handicapping skills to invest in exotics but the exotic bets rely a bit more on luck. So, get lucky, cash a $3k tri and win the contest. That should be the objective, right-do you want to make money or not?

I think not. However, there are those that think that Dancing With The Stars is a contest about dancing skills. When, in fact, it is a popularity contest.

Winning is everything?

the_fat_man
10-06-2006, 02:11 PM
ALL IN

skate
10-06-2006, 04:20 PM
ok Kitts;


i see what you are saying. but i have been thinking differential-ly.
for quite some time. spent years trying for "the win ticket", got a few, made some $.
but i never really did "good" till i looked at the price (in order to make my bet).
i still fall back to chalk, anywhere from 2/1 to 10/1, but i try to avoid them.

take a look at LAD over the last 7 to 10 days. to me, thats playing with a cause.

oh, no doubt, we get more winners at 2/1 than at 15/1, but depends on your reason for the15/1 or 30/1, you may win the 2/1 (even 5 to 10 times more often), but if you manage your plays, my opinion, you'll do better at the 20/1 area.
i look at many races before- hand, i play only very few, always.

Tom
10-06-2006, 07:26 PM
The problem I have with most contests is that you have a bankroll that won't go away. I would like to see something like you start wtih $200 and when you make a losoing bet, it is gone. None of this you get $50 a race and go for broke every race. The threat of tapping out would keep things a lot saner, IMHO.

toetoe
10-06-2006, 09:02 PM
Kitts,

It's just you. :D Just kitting. I think you're right. Even WPS is okay, as in that Big M knockout tournament. :)

44PACE
10-07-2006, 02:42 AM
I agree sticking with Win and Win/Place is the best betting method for measuring tournament handicapping skills. One large exotic payoff may be just the result of luck. The best players should be determined by both growth of bankroll and high hit rates.

Pgh. Gere
10-07-2006, 11:12 PM
Kitts

I agree with you. Every contest I've played require you to pick a horse and it's W/P and some allow W/P/S, and there's usually a cap, like 25-1 on win 12-1 on place. Which is fair, keeps it to picking winners at prices and prevents someone from lucking into a bomb. I've wondered about contests that allow exactas or tris' if they have any cap. What would be a fair amount to cap exacta or tri payouts?

Steve 'StatMan'
10-07-2006, 11:54 PM
I agree as well Kitts. Most contests should stick with straight wagers only, and if they want to run 'exotics only' contests, that's fine too. But anyone can use all kinds of junk with mythical bankrolls. While all tournament formats require some luck, without parameters, an exotics-allowed contest can easily disolve into a blind-luck-fest.