Estimate of Expected Exotic Payouts

[podonne]

Greetings,

Does anyone know of a formula or method for estimating the payout of multirace exotics, DD, P3, P4? Something based on the odds of your expected winners. I did a simple analysis just using the odds of the winners but the result had very little use as a predictor. I believe this is because the act of beating the favorite changes the payout dramatically, but I lack the MiniTab skills to take that into account.

Even a general rule of thumb would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Philip

[betovernetcapper]

If leg one of the pic 3/4 is also leg one of a DD, I just multiply the DD payoffs by the morning line prices of the horses in leg 3 or 4. The payoffs are never what I estimate them to be but the bet structure is usually correct. On tracks like Ret with rolling dds-pic3s, I do this all night.
If the pic 3 is not part of a dd, then I use what I've got, the current tote prices on leg 1 and the morning lines on leg 2 and 3.

[podonne]

So, let me be sure I heard correctly, in the absence of a daily double to compare it to, you use

CurrentOdds(Leg 1) * ML(Leg 2) * ML(Leg 3)

for a P3?

[betovernetcapper]

You got it-just like a parlay. Here's a link to a free DD calculator you might find useful.

http://www.ozracetools.com/modules.php?name=Ratings_To_Price