How to break a slump

[dav4463]

Handicap as normal. List your picks in order of preference 1 through 6. Turn your list upside down. Bet as normal with your sixth pick as top choice, fifth pick second choice, etc. If your seventh and lower rated horses still beat you, then you are REALLY in a slump!

[betovernetcapper]

If I 've hadicapped the days card and lose two consecutive races, the results of which seem inexpliple, then I'm outta there.

[46zilzal]

If I 've hadicapped the days card and lose two consecutive races, the results of which seem inexplicable, then I'm outta there.


There are too many random happenings to fold up after just two. Mitchell showed mathmatically, that runs of 7 losses happen naturally even with the best of handicapping.

what kills the majority of people is not recognizing a bias that is there right before your eyes, and not adapting to it.

[JustRalph]

you never heard of a "change of luck F#$%? "

[BIG49010]

Also know as a pre-race prep!

[twindouble]

When it comes to losing streaks I think to many gamblers hit the panic button for no good reason. You all know what can happen when you do that.

First off in order to have a losing streak you had to have a winning one to begin with so what the heck did you win? To me breaking even or winning peanuts isn't a winning streak but it helps. LOL>

Now, if I made $10 or $15 grand in the last MO, that's a winning streak, others may be happy with less and still call it a winning streak, that's OK.

Take into concideration, the periods where every time out you lose money but not a lot, win some, lose some but the bottom lines is always minus. When it comes to fairly good handicappers I think this is what happens in most cases. No reason to panic because your bankroll isn't getting distroyed. Well, there's never a reason to panic.

Lets get back to that good MO. How much did that effect your bankroll? Did it put you in the black for the year or just make up some loses or did it give you a good foundation to carry on? I would hope to think it layed a good foundation so you can sustain another losing streak and that will happen. I'm not saying anyone should be negitive thinking I'm due for a losing streak, just forget about that. When I'm on a roll I don't think this is to good to be true, would you?

You have to have a reasonable bankroll to sustain you over the year plus operate within the confines of that bankroll and if your a good handicapper gambler, this game won't put you in the poor house. So what happened yesterday, last week or last MO should have no effect on what you do right.
That's what I mean by having the "right frame of mind" when your gambling. Just don't panic and change what you do that got you this far, stick to the basics and use common sense.

Anyone who beats up his bankroll in a short time has other problems to deal with, that when you should stop and evaluate what you are doing wrong. Back to school in other words.

Good luck,

T.D.

[1st time lasix]

When it comes to losing streaks I think to many gamblers hit the panic button for no good reason. You all know what can happen when you do that.

First off in order to have a losing streak you had to have a winning one to begin with so what the heck did you win? To me breaking even or winning peanuts isn't a winning streak but it helps. LOL>

Now, if I made $10 or $15 grand in the last MO, that's a winning streak, others may be happy with less and still call it a winning streak, that's OK.

Take into concideration, the periods where every time out you lose money but not a lot, win some, lose some but the bottom lines is always minus. When it comes to fairly good handicappers I think this is what happens in most cases. No reason to panic because your bankroll isn't getting distroyed. Well, there's never a reason to panic.

Lets get back to that good MO. How much did that effect your bankroll? Did it put you in the black for the year or just make up some loses or did it give you a good foundation to carry on? I would hope to think it layed a good foundation so you can sustain another losing streak and that will happen. I'm not saying anyone should be negitive thinking I'm due for a losing streak, just forget about that. When I'm on a roll I don't think this is to good to be true, would you?

You have to have a reasonable bankroll to sustain you over the year plus operate within the confines of that bankroll and if your a good handicapper gambler, this game won't put you in the poor house. So what happened yesterday, last week or last MO should have no effect on what you do right.
That's what I mean by having the "right frame of mind" when your gambling. Just don't panic and change what you do that got you this far, stick to the basics and use common sense.

Anyone who beats up his bankroll in a short time has other problems to deal with, that when you should stop and evaluate what you are doing wrong. Back to school in other words.

Good luck,

T.D. I operate under a 3-6% bankroll rule. Example: Say your bankroll is $1000. 3% is 30 dollars and 6% is 60 dollars. Your average play should be around $45. Bet around $60 only on your strongest plays of the day in any pool you feel is correct based on your handicapping opinion. That $45 dollar average wager could be a combination of bets as well....win pool, exactas, trifectas etc. This is considered the "half-Kelly" criterion model. You are unlikely to tap out and you can withstand some tough beats. By the way...if you must play a race just for some stimulating "action"....that is why they have the old $1 four horse exacta box for $12. Or maybe you can practice your superfecta ticket structure at 10 cents. Either way....try to seek overlay opportunity on your prime plays. Best of luck to all at Keeneland....my favorite meet of the year!

[betovernetcapper]

In my experience a slump is like a cancer-I want to check it as quickly as possible. Two consecutive inexplicable losses are enough to indicate to me that at least for today I'm out of touch with that track and I'm gone. That doesn't mean I'm going to stop playing for the day, just stop for the day on that track. Today there are 16 tracks open to me (not including Aus) and I see no reason to keep on with one I'm not in sync with. :)

[JustRalph]

Two Losses in a row ? You have got to be kidding, right?

[twindouble]

Two Losses in a row ? You have got to be kidding, right?

That's what I called hitting the panic button. I would rather stay with the track that been treating well than run off to another. To each his own.

[betovernetcapper]

Two consecutive losses in races with inexplicable results. I mean betting two in a row and at the wire not only not winning but not understanding the results. In most races I can anticipate several possible outcomes, and if I lose to an outcome I'd considerd-so what. If on the other hand the outcome (twice) is something that I hadn't considered or thought plausable, I take it as a good sign of an impending slump and I seek greener pastures. :)

[twindouble]

Two consecutive losses in races with inexplicable results. I mean betting two in a row and at the wire not only not winning but not understanding the results. In most races I can anticipate several possible outcomes, and if I lose to an outcome I'd considerd-so what. If on the other hand the outcome (twice) is something that I hadn't considered or thought plausable, I take it as a good sign of an impending slump and I seek greener pastures. :)

Reminds me of my late teens, early 20's having to date many different girls. :cool:

[PriceAnProbability]

Handicap as normal. List your picks in order of preference 1 through 6. Turn your list upside down. Bet as normal with your sixth pick as top choice, fifth pick second choice, etc. If your seventh and lower rated horses still beat you, then you are REALLY in a slump!

I agree with the first three words.

If it's just bad luck, let it run its course, maybe setting a stop-loss to prevent a disaster, but if it's that you don't have an edge, you have much bigger problems to solve and it's not just a "slump."

[twindouble]

I operate under a 3-6% bankroll rule. Example: Say your bankroll is $1000. 3% is 30 dollars and 6% is 60 dollars. Your average play should be around $45. Bet around $60 only on your strongest plays of the day in any pool you feel is correct based on your handicapping opinion. That $45 dollar average wager could be a combination of bets as well....win pool, exactas, trifectas etc. This is considered the "half-Kelly" criterion model. You are unlikely to tap out and you can withstand some tough beats. By the way...if you must play a race just for some stimulating "action"....that is why they have the old $1 four horse exacta box for $12. Or maybe you can practice your superfecta ticket structure at 10 cents. Either way....try to seek overlay opportunity on your prime plays. Best of luck to all at Keeneland....my favorite meet of the year!

I think it's a mistake to put stringent restrictions on your bankroll, there's time when you have to step out for that good score. Here I am waiting 3 weeks for one my watch horses to race and I know he has a dam good shot to win with value, I'll increase my wagers considerably. That don't mean my bankroll is in jeopardy.

T.D.

[1st time lasix]

[QUOTE=twindouble]I think it's a mistake to put stringent restrictions on your bankroll, there's time when you have to step out for that good score. Here I am waiting 3 weeks for one my watch horses to race and I know he has a dam good shot to win with value, I'll increase my wagers considerably. That don't mean my bankroll is in jeopardy. This appears to be a special event outside the norm of most recreational players. Nothing like a feature play coming through for you. Good luck when this occur. My bankroll comment was merely in the thread context of dealing with a losing streak.

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=twindouble]I think it's a mistake to put stringent restrictions on your bankroll, there's time when you have to step out for that good score. Here I am waiting 3 weeks for one my watch horses to race and I know he has a dam good shot to win with value, I'll increase my wagers considerably. That don't mean my bankroll is in jeopardy. This appears to be a special event outside the norm of most recreational players. Nothing like a feature play coming through for you. Good luck when this occur. My bankroll comment was merely in the thread context of dealing with a losing streak.

Every race I bet is a special event. :cool: win or lose. :D

[1st time lasix]

[QUOTE=twindouble][QUOTE=1st time lasix]

Every race I bet is a special event. :cool: win or lose. :D You da' man! Remember to share that certain special play with all of us loyal forum readers beforehand. My bets won't kill your payouts. I generally go to the venue with about $1000. I try to have contenders selected beforehand which i may play depending on the actual odds at hand. For me ...I use about 3% {$30} to 6% {$60} per play depending on my conviction of opinion and my propensity for some action. Since I don't do it for a living.....I don't sit on my hands and only play two or three per day. My exposure could be in the win pool, or a pick 3...but generally it is with a "key" in the exacta or tri pool. Many times it is a combination. Now if i have a specific angle {like a horse off the watch list, a trainer angle/tip or a positive comment from an owner}....and it conforms with my handicapping experience for good "dope' ...I might go outside of my parameters like you do. Otherwise I think it is important to stay within the bankroll to avoid tap outs and the pain associated with losing more than I care to in a single session. With losing streaks....you must either get better at selection.... better with your ticket structure for overlay payouts....or find something else to do. An exotic player must contend with tough beats, near misses and longer dry stretches since he is looking for a bigger score. If you stay within the bankroll you can withstand the poor stretches i think. To each his own.......

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=twindouble][QUOTE=1st time lasix]

Every race I bet is a special event. :cool: win or lose. :D You da' man! Remember to share that certain special play with all of us loyal forum readers beforehand. My bets won't kill your payouts. I generally go to the venue with about $1000. I try to have contenders selected beforehand which i may play depending on the actual odds at hand. For me ...I use about 3% {$30} to 6% {$60} per play depending on my conviction of opinion and my propensity for some action. Since I don't do it for a living.....I don't sit on my hands and only play two or three per day. My exposure could be in the win pool, or a pick 3...but generally it is with a "key" in the exacta or tri pool. Many times it is a combination. Now if i have a specific angle {like a horse off the watch list, a trainer angle/tip or a positive comment from an owner}....and it conforms with my handicapping experience for good "dope' ...I might go outside of my parameters like you do. Otherwise I think it is important to stay within the bankroll to avoid tap outs and the pain associated with losing more than I care to in a single session. With losing streaks....you must either get better at selection.... better with your ticket structure for overlay payouts....or find something else to do. An exotic player must contend with tough beats, near misses and longer dry stretches since he is looking for a bigger score. If you stay within the bankroll you can withstand the poor stretches i think. To each his own.......

I can't find any fault in what your saying, sometimes I just throw things out there just for the sake of doing so. I'm a firmly believe if what your doing works, stay with it. I've live by it.


Good Luck,

T.D.