fallacy

[46zilzal]

Early on in my path to racing enlightenment, I had to discard a belief that is still extant with a lot of racing enthusiasts: that a horse is akin to some race car and the rider can speed it up to some extent like pushing on the gas. Horses simply run. The very good ones have a few gears but MOST just run. All the rider can do is get the most out of what there is in the horse's ability and not much more. Jerry Bailey, Eddie Arcaro or Laffit Pincay could no more get Zippy Chippy across the line first than you or I could.

Physiologically it makes a lot of sense. When one horse is ahead of the other, there is just SO much in the tank (and the later into a contest even less) and the majority of times the leader late keeps on going rather than another horse gaining with some phantom move. A leader in a race late has to give it up more than the other horse catching it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Horses have limited energy and do not how to pace themselves- the jockeys have to. Some horses are more willing to be paced and have more stamina.
FC did not like to be paced, Giacomo was willing to.
Watch horses whyo throw their riders out of the gate- generally they run fastest of all for 4f (their njatural distance), then fade.

[rastajenk]

I got into a discussion about this sort of thing recently on another board, specifically regarding the use of the whip. The other person(s) contended that the whip makes 'em go faster. My contention was that the whip keeps them from slowing down for a little longer than they would without a crack from the whip.

You hear it all the time after a horse wins a big race easily, that he could have set a track record if he had been pushed harder, or that he could have earned an extra ten Beyer points with a couple love taps through the stretch. Like Barbaro in the Derby. He was cruising well enough at the end, but he couldn't have gotten home any faster, just to make a statement, even if they had wanted him to. The "leaving something in the tank" for the next race idea is a related fallacy.

[Smiley]

When I was galloping my thoroughbred, I found my horse could pace himself or rate by my direction.

I also found that when tapped with the whip, he would go faster. Any honest horse will try harder when asked (like with whip tapping or hand urging). Mine always would...no matter how tired. He might not be able to sustain the new drive for long but he would try.

Not every horse is so honest or tractable.....

However, like someone said, a horse only has so much stamina.

I have also seen veteran horses who go out there, know their job, pace themselves and run the race with the jockey along for the ride! :-)

My horse only had a couple of gears (in his case slow and slower-*grin*) with only one sustained drive...yes, he was a closer. However, there are great horses who have multiple drives and CAN actually accelerate numerous times in a race. When you see it, it is amazing to watch.....

[46zilzal]

there are great horses who have multiple drives and CAN actually accelerate numerous times in a race. When you see it, it is amazing to watch.....
Affirmed, Unbridled, Forego to name a few.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"I have also seen veteran horses who go out there, know their job, pace themselves and run the race with the jockey along for the ride! :-):
Yes, but don't you think the horse has to have a decent idea of whether it is (on race day) used to running 6f or 9f?
When mentioning "acceleration", what is the relative speed increase? Of course in the extreme (and common in Europe), most turfers will stick with the herd a run at a slower pace than all-out, and then accelerate.
Maybe studying indivdual horse pacings and in-race MPH will be a good use of that new wireless tracking system!
I think with every horse it is all about current race potential energy and expected rate of loss of energy estimate (with expected pace and running style considered), which depends on some unknown variables.
I think it must take a close handicapping of pace, trip, and early speed to help figure out the energy factor!

[cj]

Affirmed, Unbridled, Forego to name a few.

I would never classify Unbridled with those two.

[robert99]

The energy balance issue has been discussed in detail on another thread on bias myths. That energy balance is predictable. The truly great athletic horses have reserves of energy and efficiency of movement well above their contemporaries. They can move forwards at any stage with ease.

I don't know where this myth that European turf horses run slow then a sprint finish. They run the same as they do in Breeders Cup turf races ie fast cruise all the way until exhaustion near the line. No competitive races have any significant acceleration after the first half furlong.

46zilzal opening statements are correct and a jockey has a very limited control on pace. He can let the horse run faster should the pace be slow but cannot slow the horse down unless he puts it in behind others. A jockey with "feel" lets the horse reach its cruising speed and keeps it balanced and going on.
The horse has no clue as to what distance it is running, what the rest of the horses are doing, what winning means nor anything else - it just cooperates and runs, mostly.

[ryesteve]

No competitive races have any significant acceleration after the first half furlong.
Then why does it seem like every G1 turf race I've seen this year has had a final fraction that was faster than the first fraction?

[Smiley]

I might have to disagree a little bit there...

I think turn of foot is something that is an unknown genetic factor..possibly linked to the "x" heart factor. Horses that have incredible turns of foot, are able to accelerate,reach their maximum HR capacity-which is usually higher than their contempories, hold that capacity for a greater length of time or are able to reach that maximum capacity multiple times while not depleting their total oxygen supply.

These horses have the ability to be gunned to the lead (which would normally wipe out a horse), rate back, accelerate to get through a hole, rate back, and acclerate to finish all at a very, very fast pace...Tiznow comes to mind when I think of this. Moves that should totally wipe a horse out (due to the effort and speed )are made easily...


You can help a horse develop this to an extent. I would use a HR monitor and do fartlek training to develop this capacity. However, some horses are born with a God-given ability to do this and it's just their pure, natural raw talent. Maybe they have bigger hearts or a more effecient sytem?

In regard to horses not knowing what other horses are doing, try telling that to my three year old! If he makes a lead, he'll do something stupid because he's bored. The jock has to pull him back to put him in the mix on purpose. He is the type of horse that likes a fight and needs to be eye balling someone. We discovered this during his first official gate work. He burst out of the gate, was about to be passed by the older more experienced horse and turned, pinned his ears, and bit the horse in the neck. Needless to say, he now runs in a figure eight to keep that mouth closed! :-0

I believe that brillance and having the ability to make multiple turn of foots (ability to accelerate at will) are not the same thing. A horse can be brillant but not able to make more than one run. This horse is just insanely fast..usually the type to win wire to wire and break track records...Dr. Fager. He couldn't rate to save his life! I 'd still love to own him though....!!

Other great hores can make huge turn of foot moves all within a race and at an insanely fast overall pace while setting faster fraction splits toward the end. It takes a special horse to have these multiple gears.

[Smiley]

Then why does it seem like every G1 turf race I've seen this year has had a final fraction that was faster than the first fraction?


I agree with you...

Turf races are usually much more moderate to start. My older TB is a turf horse and he would be going a half in 50 and 6 in 1:14 or 1:15 before picking up the pace to make his one big run. They would finish up in a good time because they all ran the second half faster. You see it more with races over 1 1/4 and not so much the mile or shorter.

It is rare to have a horse go wire to wire and steal a race in long turf races but it does occassionally happen.....especially if the lead horse can really slow the pace and has a better kick than the others.

[RobinFromIreland]

Aren't we really just talking about aerobic/anaerobic rates and capacities?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Aren't we really just talking about aerobic/anaerobic rates and capacities?
_________
IMO there are 2 main things- lungs and legs, air and muscles.

[Wiley]

You can help a horse develop this to an extent. I would use a HR monitor and do fartlek training to develop this capacity.
I have wondered if trainers use these human running training techniques in horses, like VO2 Max, Lactic Threshold, Heart rate ranges etc.? I assume these methods can be used in training horses once baselines are established and working from there. I liked Ritchey's methods with Afleet Alex - similar to 'long run' training for humans preparing for endurance events.
Like RobinfromIreland, at what point do racing thoroughbreds change from dominant anaerobic to dominant aerobic levels? Just guessing would put anything over a mile as the cross over.

[46zilzal]

Then why does it seem like every G1 turf race I've seen this year has had a final fraction that was faster than the first fraction?

STYLE.......One of the reasons Asmussen did so well when he a Cauthen first went to Europe.

AND when Stevens went to Sha Tin.

[46zilzal]

I would never classify Unbridled with those two.
okay but the idea was tractabliity not inherent quality.

[Valuist]

Then why does it seem like every G1 turf race I've seen this year has had a final fraction that was faster than the first fraction?

I think you need to add the words "New York" before Gr 1 turf race. It seems like every turf race there is a crawlfest. But in Southern California, I see plenty of grass races where the field is blazing early, strung out 15 lengths.

[robert99]

The point in question was European Group One races.
For those interested in evidence rather than superficial opinions here are some first and last quarter transponder times for turf racing at Newmarket UK on 29 September. The track variant was officially Soft.

The first quarter is from a standing start from the stalls, not a flying start. It take about an extra 3.5 seconds to accelerate from zero up to racing speed.The times are for the winning horses which were not actually leading in the first Q.

All the GR1 and G3 winners were running sub12 second furlongs in "Soft" ground just one furlong out from the starting stalls.

7f Class1, GR3, Winner: Thousand Words
1st Q (14.92,11.43) = 26.35
Fnl Q 26.01

6f Class1, GR1, Winner: Indian Ink
1st Q (14.90,11.65) = 26.55
Fnl Q 24.86

6f Class1, GR1, Winner: Duke Art
1st Q (15.17,11.69) = 26.86
Fnl Q 24.15

12f Class1, Listed, Winner: Dutch Art
1st Q (14.24,13.31) = 27.55
Fnl Q 25.70.

[robert99]

STYLE.......One of the reasons Asmussen did so well when he a Cauthen first went to Europe.

AND when Stevens went to Sha Tin.

46zilzal,

That was two decades ago and you are absolutely right about Steve Cauthen who led the way. Traditional UK jockey bias at the time was that you had to hold your horse up to win - so some races were like a gentleman's excuse me dance -no one wanted to take the lead.

SC just did his USA thing and paced the horse so that it cruised comfortably throughout. That set up huge leads with the complacent UK jokies just sitting there expecting SC's horse to fade - it rarely ever did. That jockey bias took nearly two years to sink in and change the old school ways.

That set me on to concentrating on pace analysis and Martin Pipe took it up with huge success for national hunt racing. What surprised me is that even with the evidence of SC's continual success on UK horses' was that it took so long for anything to change. Ballydoyle still have not mastered the use of a pacemaker even to this day.

[classhandicapper]

46zilzal opening statements are correct and a jockey has a very limited control on pace. He can let the horse run faster should the pace be slow but cannot slow the horse down unless he puts it in behind others.

If you had a good set of pace figures I think you would change this view - at least about US racing.

Race development is often related to the amount of speed in the race.

When there's not much speed, the jockey on the front runner can often back up the pace to a crawl.

If the pace is very fast, the smartest jockeys often take back off the pace (assuming they have a versatile stalker and not a one dimensioal need the lead type)

The jocks make tons of mistakes because it's probably not very easy to tell the difference between 46 and 47 (for example) when you are constantly on different horses with different styles and levels of ability, but the best jocks have a lot more control than you are giving them credit for.

Sure there are some one dimensional speed balls, some even paced horses, and some deep closers etc..... But within those style and qualities they do have some control. You can see it in the numbers and visually.

[robert99]

If you had a good set of pace figures I think you would change this view - at least about US racing.

Race development is often related to the amount of speed in the race.

When there's not much speed, the jockey on the front runner can often back up the pace to a crawl.

If the pace is very fast, the smartest jockeys often take back off the pace (assuming they have a versatile stalker and not a one dimensioal need the lead type)

The jocks make tons of mistakes because it's probably not very easy to tell the difference between 46 and 47 (for example) when you are constantly on different horses with different styles and levels of ability, but the best jocks have a lot more control than you are giving them credit for.

Sure there are some one dimensional speed balls, some even paced horses, and some deep closers etc..... But within those style and qualities they do have some control. You can see it in the numbers and visually.

classhandicapper,

My thoughts were in the context of the original thread ie some think jockies ride a horse the same as stepping on the gas of an automobile. I said limited control, not no control, in that context. There are no brakes and no gears on a galloping horse. It is certainly not knocking jockies skills which lie more in keeping a horse balanced and steering through gaps etc. In fact this myth that jockies after riding hundreds of races can somehow ride a bad race is something I have no time for. The horse dictates its own cruise pace and pace shape in "99%" of cases. A lot of your points on the pace control issues may be due to dirt sprint racing being fairly much all out racing - all out means essentially that the jocky not out in front has one decison - go with them or hold back. If he lets out the reins and is open space than there is no way he can suddenly slow up. If he tucks his horse in behind others he can slow his horse. If his horse cannot go the current pace he has no decision to make - just hope they all come back later.