View Full Version : Question on pick3 with gate scratch
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 03:56 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong... if my pick-3 ticket on the 2nd-4th at Thistledown has the winners of the 2nd and 4th with the gate scratch in the 3rd (#6), I should've been paid out, not refunded, no?
Anderon
10-02-2006, 05:10 PM
You would just get a refund or they could just give you the postime chalk in place of your late scratch on the ticket There would be no payout as you did not have the winner selected in the second race on your ticket, unless no one had a winner in the second race therefore there would be a 2/3 payout which I think you would qualify for.
Pgh. Gere
10-02-2006, 05:15 PM
I know the NYRA tracks award a consolation payout with the gate scratch. Don't believe the Ohio tracks offer the consolation payout.
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 05:23 PM
Where did you bet?
Through Pinnacle...
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 05:24 PM
You would just get a refund or they could just give you the postime chalk in place of your late scratch on the ticket
The posttime chalk was the winner... I should have specified that earlier. The results as posted say:
$2 Pick 3$104.00 3-3/6-1 (3 Correct)
Doesn't that imply that a 3/6/1 ticket should be cashed?
Zman179
10-02-2006, 05:43 PM
With Pinnacle, a scratch in any leg of a pick 3, regardless of when the scratch occurs, results in a refund of the wager. If you had made the wager into the pools, you would have collected $104. In other words, you got screwed.
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 06:50 PM
That's f'ing ridiculous. Is there anything in a faq at the site that explains the circumstances under which they won't honor tickets that would've been winners if bet on-track?
Do other sites follow this same policy?
Anderon
10-02-2006, 07:53 PM
The posttime chalk was the winner... I should have specified that earlier. The results as posted say:
$2 Pick 3$104.00 3-3/6-1 (3 Correct)
Doesn't that imply that a 3/6/1 ticket should be cashed?
:confused:
I understand Pinnacle is not the best accomadating place to put your wagers thru, alot of people say they get shut out alot trying to place their wagers somewhat near postime.
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 08:05 PM
I understand Pinnacle is not the best accomadating place to put your wagers thru, alot of people say they get shut out alot trying to place their wagers somewhat near postime.
But at the very least, you'd expect them to pay out on the wagers that DO get placed...
Anderon
10-02-2006, 08:09 PM
I totally agree with you....those Dirty Rat Bastards !!!! :mad:
Zman179
10-02-2006, 08:35 PM
That's f'ing ridiculous. Is there anything in a faq at the site that explains the circumstances under which they won't honor tickets that would've been winners if bet on-track?
Do other sites follow this same policy?
That's their pick 3 policy, and I must say that it is clearly posted on the site. I used to be a Pinnacle customer, but I found that their pick 3/4 policy was stupid.
Say for example you play a 4x4x1 pick 3 ticket at Belmont. The first race pays $30 to win. The second race catches another longshot and pays $50 to win. You're now alive into a pick 3 with your single that is paying $2,000. Your single gets scratched at the gate. In this case, even if I don't get a conso and get stuck with the favorite, at least I'll have a shot at a score, even if it isn't with the horse that I chose. With Pinnacle, you get a total refund. Some people like this policy, but I think that they're either nuts, or chalk players.
I know one guy who got stuck for $3,500 this way. He'll have to bet $50,000 with a 7% rebate to get that money back. I find it's simply easier to bet in the pools with my $1 and $2 part-wheels. No worries this way.
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 08:54 PM
Some people like this policy
The only people who like it would be those who end up getting a refund on a ticket that was already dead.
Zman179
10-02-2006, 08:59 PM
I brought this same subject up on another, pro-Pinnacle, board. To say that I was a minority of one in saying that the pick 3 refund was bad would be an understatement.
linrom1
10-02-2006, 10:04 PM
I brought this same subject up on another, pro-Pinnacle, board. To say that I was a minority of one in saying that the pick 3 refund was bad would be an understatement.
If one singles a horse, why would one want to play a P-3 with an alternate selection that was not his first and only choice?
There is also a very good reason why Pinnacle would not want to pay out consolation payouts? It prevents players from "scratch at gate" shenanigans, especially if they’re trainers. It might not mean much to racetrack management, but it would to Pinnacle: they’re not playing with other people’s money--it is their own.
ryesteve
10-02-2006, 11:02 PM
If one singles a horse, why would one want to play a P-3 with an alternate selection that was not his first and only choice?
Better question: If I have a ticket that would've been cashed at the track, why would I want, or expect, my Internet bet to be treated with different rules?
If you'd like a purely mathematical analysis, your expected value when taking the favorite is much, much higher than taking a refund (unless you played a very large ticket, or had heavy chalk in the other legs). In the case of the 4x4x1 example, if one assumes the favorite has a 1 in 3 chance of winning, the P3 willpay only needs to exceed $48 to make it preferable to a refund. Like I said earlier, the only players who benefit from this are the ones who already had dead tickets.
As for your "scratch at the gate" shenanigans, come on, that's ridiculous. If anything, this policy HELPS betting trainers screw Pinnacle. Think about it... any time their P3 bets have already lost, all they have to do is scratch their horse and Pinnacle will refund all their bets. It's like playing at a blackjack table that offers a 100% payback on surrendered hands... it's practically a license to steal...
The rules are pretty clear if you read them. Whether you agree or not, you should know the rules where you are playing.
I personally think it is a good rule. If I single a 10-1 shot, do I want to be stuck with a 4 to 5 if he is a gate scratch? What if I invested $200 in the P3 and the first two winners paid $3.20 and $4.00. I don't think I'd want to be stuck with a favorite in the third leg.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 09:04 AM
What if I invested $200 in the P3 and the first two winners paid $3.20 and $4.00. I don't think I'd want to be stuck with a favorite in the third leg.
Like I just said, unless you played a lot of combinations, or had heavy chalk in the other legs you're much better off taking the favorite. If you think it's a good rule, explain to me how it benefits the player in a more typical case... say, you've bet a 2X2x1, and the will pay on the favorite is $100. You really think you're better off taking $4 rather than a 1 in 3 chance for $100?? I can't imagine how one would arrive at that conclusion.
How often do you really think you will be live to a $1 P3 to the favorite that is paying $100 going 2 x 2? I don't think it is nearly as often as many would like to believe.
Keep in mind, they are substituting your SINGLE in the race. If a horse scratches in a race you went 4 deep, you are still live to the other horses. If I really liked a favorite, I would have included him on my own.
Again, it is just my opinion. There are pros and cons on both sides. I choose the side that I want to pick my own horses, and if they don't run, I want my money back. Others want the favorite instead. I have no problem with that, just play where the rules match what you want.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 11:09 AM
How often do you really think you will be live to a $1 P3 to the favorite that is paying $100 going 2 x 2?
That really doesn't answer my question. If you like, I'll make the willpay $50. one third of $50 (the expected value) is still a lot more than $4. Hell, even if you hate the favorite and think he only has a 1 in 5 chance of winning, it's still a much better expectation than a refund.
And yeah, if you've gone 4 deep in the race with the gate scratch, that's all fine and dandy... but if you've singled the horse that got gate scratched, and you've gone 2 for 2 in the other legs, there's no way you can be happy just getting your money back, regardless of the outcome of 3rd race.
I did answer your question. Yes I think I am better off getting my money back than having it put on another horse I didn't want in the first place. That is what I want. What you want is different, so bet accordingly. Since I play P3s there often, I know I have personally have come out ahead on this rule with refunds. If have been refunded on a few I would have hit, but have more than made up for it on refunds. I've even hit P3s and received a refund on some of the bet.
I certainly understand that many times you aren't going to know all the rules, especially for an offshore book. I doubt I know them all, though I should. I was lucky enough to learn this P3/4 rule when I received a refund. Most people don't even know the rules for the state(s) they play. Only thing I can say is now that you know, if you don't like it, there are other options.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 12:13 PM
I did answer your question
Not really... Yes, I understand it's "what you want", but I'm still trying to get at the logic as to why someone would consider this a better option. You don't seem to be disagreeing with my premise that the expected value in taking the favorite is higher than taking the refund, so where is the value in taking the lesser of two options?
I agree if that is the only time it ever happens, it isn't a good situation. You seem to be ignoring the possibility that you will get your money back even if the ticket is dead after the first two legs, which is going to be the case more often than not. Also, maybe the ticket was a lot bigger. What if you played a 5x6x1 P3? Now your refund is $30, not 4. Rather than basically give you a $30 bet on the favorite, you get your money back, even if not live before the scratch.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 01:01 PM
I agree if that is the only time it ever happens, it isn't a good situation. You seem to be ignoring the possibility that you will get your money back even if the ticket is dead after the first two legs, which is going to be the case more often than not. Also, maybe the ticket was a lot bigger. What if you played a 5x6x1 P3? Now your refund is $30, not 4.
Yes, I've said, unless you played a lot of combinations, or had heavy chalk in the other legs, your expectation will be much higher with the favorite. We agree on both counts.
And yes, I think we've come to the agreement that the only beneficiaries are those with dead tickets. So, I guess the long term implications would be that the more often one has dead tickets, the greater the benefit.
And yes, I think we've come to the agreement that the only beneficiaries are those with dead tickets. So, I guess the long term implications would be that the more often one has dead tickets, the greater the benefit.
First off, the refund is just as nice when I am not dead and cash the P3 anyway. It doesn't necessarily have to be a dead ticket.
Let us say I play a $20 P3 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3 / 1,2, and then the 2 scratches in the last leg Now, the reason I played 1,2 in the last leg is that I HATE the favorite. I have invested $480 in a P3. Now, the 2 is a gate scratch. Do I want $240 transferred to a horse I deliberately played against, or do I want that $240 back in my pocket to use later on a race where I have an opinion I want to back? Even if my ticket is live going into the last leg, I don't want the favorite. Why would I? I HATE him in this spot.
I play a lot, every day, and do well. I do even better when I pick the horses on my ticket. I have records to prove this. I know I do better getting a refund than hoping a favorite wins. Do you have records to back up your stance, or making an educated guess?
pic6vic
10-03-2006, 02:51 PM
There is no comparison that a refund is much better than the favorite. The palyers have fought for years in the pick 6 to have an alternate. Why would getting the favorite be benificial to anyone. CJ's explanations are right on. Just think the only time this is not favorable is when the FAV wins. How many on this board play favorites.
NO BRAINER (pinnacle is great)
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 03:46 PM
Do I want $240 transferred to a horse I deliberately played against, or do I want that $240 back in my pocket to use later on a race where I have an opinion I want to back? Even if my ticket is live going into the last leg, I don't want the favorite. Why would I?
Why would you? You would if your expected value is better than the refund.
The only way to answer that question is to know:
1) What is the willpay on the favorite?
2) When you say you "hate him", what does that translate to in terms of winning%?
Multiply them together, and let me know if it's more than $240. For all I know, depending on who won the first 2 legs, your $20 ticket could be worth a couple thousand with the favorite. And even if you "hate" the favorite, I don't think anyone is good enough to toss favorites that end up having only a 10% chance of winning.
pic6vic
10-03-2006, 04:39 PM
You wouldn't single in the first place if you had liked the fav. Then include the fav on your ticket and double the amount you bet or include the 2nd choice in case the fav is scratched. Thisway your covered. Of course you have doubled the ticket. Small price for anyone that wants the fav.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 05:16 PM
You wouldn't single in the first place if you had liked the fav.
Who's talking about liking the favorite? I think every post I made today includes words to the effect, "even if you hate the favorite". Non-sequitors and general advice about structuring a pick 3 ticket aren't really necessary. Neither are general testimonials in favor of Pinnacle's policy.
But if you can show me the actual math that supports the idea that a refund is better than taking the favorite when you have a live ticket, except when going deep in the other legs or when heavy chalk has won the other legs, that'd be awesome.
Seems to me the main point to this thread is that Pinnacle refunds pick 3 wagers when a gate/late scratch occurs. Either live with this policy(like it or not) or put your money into the track pools where your ticket(s) will be live with the post time favorite.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 05:44 PM
Seems to me the main point to this thread is that Pinnacle refunds pick 3 wagers when a gate/late scratch occurs.
Not really... if that was the main point, it'd be one message and out. The main point now is which policy is better. Even though I see it as a pretty basic math problem, surprisingly, we don't seem to be getting very far.
Not really... if that was the main point, it'd be one message and out. The main point now is which policy is better. Even though I see it as a pretty basic math problem, surprisingly, we don't seem to be getting very far.
In the long run do you really want your money on the post time favorite when your single scratches out? Combine the $$ in the pool from the scratched horse that goes to the fav + the pick 3 $$ that is already on the favorite & what do you get? You get shorter returns in the payouts correct?
Now over a years time, realistically looking at things. Will the times that favorite comes through for you with that short price payout outweigh the times that he/she burns your money? Now compare that scenario to a guaranteed refund from Pinnacle that puts money back into your pocket.
ryesteve
10-03-2006, 10:23 PM
Now over a years time, realistically looking at things. Will the times that favorite comes through for you with that short price payout outweigh the times that he/she burns your money?
Given the hypotheticals I've posted, the answer is YES. The only contradictions I've seen are the ones I'd already pointed out myself: ie when you've gone very deep in the other legs, or heavy chalk has won the other legs. But assuming you've only gone 2x2, or 3x2, or even 3x3 in the other legs, and there weren't odds-on favorites in those other legs, I'm still waiting for someone to demonstrate mathematically how a refund of a live ticket is better than the expectated payoff if you're given the favorite.
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