E-Horse Exchange Betting

[classhandicapper]

I don't have an account, but E-Horse finally opened their Exchange betting today after the very long delay. I have no idea whether it will be good or how much action it will attract, but I plan on checking it out today. If anyone knows more, please let me know too.

[ryesteve]

My first impression is not a good one. Looking at the results from Calder and Delaware, most of the winners paid more on track (some paid substantially more, such as the winner of the 1st at Calder... $9 vs. $38) Most of the races had lines over 150%. Perhaps over time players will start laying more reasonable prices... but for now, it's a :ThmbDown:

[finfan]

My first impression is not a good one. Looking at the results from Calder and Delaware, most of the winners paid more on track (some paid substantially more, such as the winner of the 1st at Calder... $9 vs. $38) Most of the races had lines over 150%. Perhaps over time players will start laying more reasonable prices... but for now, it's a :ThmbDown:

If you check the results after the race is settled those odds are a lot different than what you could get prior to the race. I don't think those odds are representative of a win price. Plus the book %'s were much closer to 100%. I'm not sure what those "settled" #'s represent.

I was watching the runup to Del race 4 and at 2 mtp the #3 was 9/1 on the tote. There was a bet offer of 19/1 for up to almost $200. A min later the offer was gone. I guess it got matched (or was taken down). But it occurred to me that if we generally accept the public's oddsline as pretty accurate, then this was a huge overlay. What if we said at 2 mtp we'll bet any offer that is a min 50% higher odds than the tote odds. Wouldn't we essentially be betting on "true" overlays assuming the tote odds don't rise dramatically? I know this is a little simplistic, but I'm just throwing it out there. (The #3 finished last at odds of 11/1 btw)

On Sat. I was watching and the fave was 2/1 tote odds getting near pt. I saw a bet offer pop up for 4/1 (3/1 tote odds) for $100. It got sucked up pretty quick and then it got offered again and was gone quickly after. I guess someone knew this fave was vulnerable because he finished 4th. I'm sure there are a lot of good cappers on here that can spot these situations. This seems to me the best of many worlds. You have the field running for you, faves lose approx. 2/3 of the time and the public loves them especially if they think they are getting better value. Heck it could be any one of the top 3 or 4 public choices. If you knew lock, stock, and barrel that this horse wasn't going to win, just offer slightly higher odds at pt and collect your $$ 2 min later. ;)

I'm new to this exchange stuff so maybe it's not as easy as this. Anyone with more experience care to comment?

[ryesteve]

If you check the results after the race is settled
I was looking at the results after the races were settled. Go look at the site now and tell me if what I'm seeing is wrong. I'm assuming the numbers that are up there now is the state of betting when the races closed.

[finfan]

I'm assuming the numbers that are up there now is the state of betting when the races closed.

As I have watched the runup to pt the status changes from "Open" to "Suspended", I think, and finally to "Settled".

I'm not sure what the numbers up now really represent. During the "Open" phase the odds #'s are very dynamic as offers are presented and so forth. You can lock in some good prices relative to final odds during this time. I'll email them tomorrow to find out what the "Settled" #'s mean.

For instance, you referenced Calder R1. Who in their right mind is going to offer 3.5/1 when pt tote odds are 18/1 and expect to get any action? I have seen really good offers relative to pt odds, but these "Settled" #'s don't reflect that.