PDA

View Full Version : Daily Review- Monday 10/2/2006


MitchS
10-02-2006, 08:53 AM
Todays highlighted race is the 4th at CRC.

PN E1 M1 L1 S1 BT PS C1 T1 SC JP TP P1 TOT 1V 2V ML VL LR SP
4 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 17 1 1 3 4.2 32 EP7
7 4 6 3 2 3 3 6 3 2 3 1 3 39 2 2 2.5 5.7 8 E8
8 7 7 2 4 7 6 7 2 6 1 2 2 53 3 3 4 7.0 8 P4
2 3 2 4 3 3 5 4 5 7 6 8 8 58 6 5 8 8.8 52 E3
1 6 3 6 7 3 6 5 6 5 4 4 5 60 4 7 10 11 10 S2
6 1 1 8 6 8 2 2 8 3 8 7 6 60 5 6 8 10 50 E7
3 5 5 5 5 6 8 3 4 4 7 5 4 61 8 4 6 8.3 3 S0
5 8 8 7 8 2 3 8 7 8 5 6 7 77 7 8 12 18 14 S0




CRC's 4th race is going to be short and sweet. It's a 8.5 furlong race on the turf and as we can see the number 1 ranked horse is a dominate stand out. He has a ranked #1 in almost every category including a #1 V1 and V2 and he has a separation on the field of 22 points. His SP of EP7 sets up well in this race with two other speed horses to set the pace while he lays off them and uses his late speed and turf rating T1 to nail these front runners down the stretch. This is a prime example of not trying to find value in these kinds of races. You need to pick you're spots and this is not the kind of race to be looking to beat the favorite. He could very well get beat but its not a high probability situation for value in this type of race. With his listed VL line of 4.3 we can lower the VL by 2.5 to get an adjusted VL line on this horse for a possible value play. If he goes off at 1.8/1 this horse would be considered a value play. That's it for this race. We will look no further in races like this for value when such a dominate line horse is present.

One thing I forgot to mention on the website in this race is the top rated horse is comming off a fast paced race in his last so look for him to improve with this bunch.

Full chart listed at website.

Have a great day,
Mitch

MitchS
10-02-2006, 07:24 PM
Well... In hind site we miscalculated the pace shape of this race just slightly. It was`a no play race for me as he went off at 1/1 well below our adjusted VL and finished 2nd. I was blinded by the big point gap and did not look further in this race as I probably should have. Its clear why the 3rd choice #8 won this race having the right running style for this field. His 2nd ranked T1 and L1 showed danger especially with the P4 running style. That and good connections with the JP and TP rankings and a VL of 7 that could of been adjusted to 5 or 6 for this race made this right on the borderline of a possible value play. Again the only reason this horse was passed by was because of the big point gap seperation between the top rated horse and the rest of the field. Usually in those curcumstances theres not much to look at UNLESS the race shape analysis takes precedence.

I'll be chronicling a daily pre and post race analysis on a newly created forum so I can keep these selection post organized. Feel free to stop by and give me you're opinion on any race you care to discuss. I'll double post over here as well..

Mitch