VALUE LINE @ BELMONT

[PlanB]

I paid $10 for today's BEL races:

R#1 ... It listed the winner, #4 Thunder Pass, third, w/ TVL of 6:1. Oh my,
my system put #4 first, but as a sure FAV. #4 PAID $4.30. I'm puzzled about
its picks in R1.

R#2 ... It listed 6 horses, and the winner, #7, Trading Star, was NOT among
them. #7 paid $6.50. Their Pace Horse was #4, Black Jack Blues, and it
just lost 2nd, off at odds ~15:1. But he did NOT run on the Pace.


(I hope what I'm doing is OK) ....

[xtb]

For your bankroll, probably not.

[xfile]

I paid $10 for today's BEL races:

R#1 ... It listed the winner, #4 Thunder Pass, third, w/ TVL of 6:1. Oh my,
my system put #4 first, but as a sure FAV. #4 PAID $4.30. I'm puzzled about
its picks in R1.

R#2 ... It listed 6 horses, and the winner, #7, Trading Star, was NOT among
them. #7 paid $6.50. Their Pace Horse was #4, Black Jack Blues, and it
just lost 2nd, off at odds ~15:1. But he did NOT run on the Pace.


(I hope what I'm doing is OK) ....

Yeah what you are doing is just fine. You are showing us the true value of value line. Let's see how the rest of the day goes. Keep on posting. :cool:

[PlanB]

R3, The Winner Long Shot #7, at 19:1, Won. (I saw the Channing Hill interview
w/ Mary Ryan & my wife said, "Oh how cute. Make sure you bet him today.")
LOL, I decided against ValueLine to bet #2, Circle The World. VL put his min
odds at 4:1!!, but they had 5 horses listed, 1-2-4-6-3 in that order, but
a speed horse #1 was scratched.
That brings me to 1 criticism of these picks: THEY'RE NOT RE-COMPUTED
with Scratches. At any rate, I thought #2 was very superior, given #1
scratching & NO I did not listen to my wife or else I would have had that
$173 Exacta.

[PlanB]

R4 is coming up soon & VL lists ONLY 1 horse w/ the $ next-to-its name.
Stay tuned & try to iggy my screams if it doesn't win.

[PlanB]

BRAVO ... R4, VL's ONLY pick, #10, Executive Search, Won Easily, at odds
of 2:1. The min odds listed at 9:5. Payoff: $6.10.

Once again, #10 was listed as the PACE horse but raced in the back mostly,
making a sweep on the outside. Just an observation.
__________________________________________________ _______________

As R5 approaches, VL picks 4 horses: 6-9-X-X, but the 6 & 9 Scratched.
urggh, Really VL guys, ReCompute your selections.

[PlanB]

R5, VL listed 2 horses after scratches, 5 & 8. The 5 was odds 1:5, and
so that was a VL NO PICK, w/ min odds of 5:1!!!

#4, Lunatrick won w/ Messina from FL staying on him. Great ride and
who would have thought a wire-2-wire win?

__________________________________________________ _______________

With R6 coming up, VL singles out 3 horses but 1 horse gets a fist POWER PLAY
rating. VL suggest keying this horse in Exactas & DDs. We shall see.

[MitchS]

6th looks pretty chaulky to me. My sheets are open today if you want to check out the value plays compaired to the Value line.

Good luck today,
Mitch

[PlanB]

Well, the VL Power Play was #7, Tough To Follow, going off at odds, 5:2.
VL asked for 9:5. The #4, Mr Bourbon Street was the big FAV, at 3:5 and
off the boards. The VL Power Play #7 WON handily wire-2-wire. Maybe you
heard me yell, Whip Him. Payoff: $7.50. (VL had the 7-4-8 listed)

So far, both winners, R4 Executive Search & R6, Tough To Follow, got special
marks from VL, the $ and the Fist Power Play.

__________________________________________________ ________________
R7 coming up & VL lists 5 horses. No special marks.

[PlanB]

R7, the Kelso: VL listed 5 horses: 2-5-8-3-1. It's obvious that VL didn't like
the Winner #3, Ashkal Way, winning at 2:1. VL asked to get 7:1, LOL.
#6 ran second. PS: The only way to get 7:1 on Ashkal in this race was to
change his saddlecloth # on the sly. Maybe the 1mile BC Turf?

[PlanB]

RACE #8, WINNER #1, Society Hostess. VL picked 1-7-11, but asked for 3:1.
The winner went off at 8:5. Just in passing, these odds are asking a lot, but
I suppose that's what VL is about. I really didn't think that the public would
let #1 go at 3:1, unless the stable knew something negative. But that's
the VL approach --- and maybe why I don't think odds lines matter.
__________________________________________________ ________________

On to Race #9, where VL has a MONSTER Pick. VL asking for 9:5 & as of now
the track odds are MUCH higher, so a BET is imminent.

__________________________________________________ _________________

[PlanB]

RACE #9 Results: VL had a Monster Play.

The MONSTER PLAY went off at odds 8:1 when all VL asked was 9:5. So what's
a guy to do? I think I need a drink. I didn't bet lightly. Ah well, it lost,
but was in contention. BTW, the VL pick was #8, Touchtown Kid, but the
big FAV, Ferocious Fires, Won at odds 1:1.
__________________________________________________ _________________

On to Race 10, with more restraint, lol.

[PaceAdvantage]

(I hope what I'm doing is OK) ....

NO, what you are doing is NOT OK! Please don't do this again.

It's the same as purchasing PPs or an e-book or something else that can be distributed electronically and then giving it away for free. Do you think the vendor is going to be pleased that you are STEALING from him?

Damn man, YOU know better, as YOU'VE been here a lot LONGER than your JOIN DATE indicates.....

:mad:

[Ron]

He didn't post one single pick BEFORE the race, why is that not ok? All selections were after post time so that helps those who might be interested in purchasing Value Line? I'm not sure what the point of this thread was.

[PaceAdvantage]

From the flow of the thread (each race had its own post) I was under the impression he was posting BEFORE the race, which of course, IS NOT COOL.

If indeed all of the info was posted AFTER the race was over, then that MIGHT be ok, depending on the agreement one is under when one purchases this report.

[PlanB]

ummm ... Since I told who WON the race, ALL references were AFTER the
Races were over; NO VL selections were revealed BEFORE the races. Only
AFTER each race did I post the predicted vs the actual. I doubt the VL
group got any of their feathers ruffled, but if they did, I'll cancel my CC trans
for their book, JK.

[chickenhead]

That brings me to 1 criticism of these picks: THEY'RE NOT RE-COMPUTED
with Scratches.

You can't recompute to account for how it might effect pace etc, but its pretty easy to distribute the scratched horses chances amongst your other contenders. meaning, (if you were actually to use a line like this) you should do it yourself.

[PlanB]

Come On, why can't a service provide that? I'm not talking about gate
scratches, but EARLY scratches. I think the data provider should just re-run
the field sans scratches. And NO, I don't want to re-distribute the Pr line,
I'm too busy formulating my bets, with real money; the grunt work should
be done by the provider. Think of it this way: for VL, the MAIN thing is
the odds line; so, getting it free of clutter is their bread & butter.

[chickenhead]

I agree, but if you are actually betting real cheddar, and you think this thing has value, and the fact is that they aren't doing it -- then you should be recalculating. Complaining gets you nowhere.

Look at the bright side, your line will be better than all the other VL customers.

[PlanB]

ummm, man good point. I think I might pay $10 today & do that. But what
about Turf races cancelled, as at Belmont today? I don't think I can use
that data at all. So, ideally, VL should re-compute (1) All races w/ scratches;
(2) All races switched to Dirt. Are you listening Dr's?

[PlanB]

What I looked like after VL's MONSTER pick LOST:


http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n304/BRizzle84/picture99999003.jpg