FORM CYCLES ANALYSIS

[delayjf]

Just finished "Blinkers Off" and found it very interesting. I've picked up bits and pieces from other posters that use form cycles.
With that in mind, I was wondering about some of your experiences using pace figures in conjuction with final time figures in the manner described by the Cary Fotias authur of "Blinkers".
I was curious that Cary used the 4 furlong mark for his pace number when common theory (if you want to call it that) states that the 6 furlong pace interval is more insightful in routes.
I'm not saying he's wrong, but I'd be interested in knowing others opinions on this?? Has anybody applied his theory using say bris or tsn, or Cramer pace figures??

[Zaf]

What exactly are cramer pace figures ?

As for the Bris 4F Pace Figures , I have found some horses who display a new 4f top (bris only goes back 10 races)are very eligible to improve under the right conditions. Over the last couple of months I've found some winners in the $10-$20 range that way. Nothing Scientific , just observations.

Fotias has some good theories, I enjoyed the book. I do not use the xtra's.

ZAFONIC

[Handle]

If there is a conclusive answer, I don't have it. However, I can say with some sense of definity (is that a word?) that:

A) In Routes, the usage of the E1 pace figure (at 4 furlongs) in conjunction with the E2 pace figure (6 furlongs) causes EquiSim Simulations to perform WORSE than just using E2 pace figures.

B) In Sprints, using the E1 pace figure (at 2 furlongs) in conjunction with the E2 pace figure (4 furlongs), causes EquiSim simulations to perform BETTER than just using the E2 pace figures.

Now, I'm NOT saying that we should conclude that the 6 furlong pace interval is a better indicator in Routes. There are many factors to consider given my test case (ES does "stuff" to the figures and uses them in its own particular way to begin with) -- but, there was enough of a difference that I figured I'd chime in with my own observations. Interesting to hear what others have observed.

-Nathan

[delayjf]

ZAFRONIC
Cramer pace figures are available only through HDW and only through one of the programs that uses HDW downloads. I have heard over and over again from some very reputable handicappers / programers like Ken Massa at HTR and Dave Schwartz right here on this board, that his varients are second to none and the figures he produces from them are second to none.

HANDLE
Who is EquiSim, are they affiliated with equiform? On another note, did the second call (6 furlong) pace number work at all by it's self, without combining it with the first call (routes). Interesting that equiform would use a 4 furlong pace figure with sprints which compromises about 3/4 of the race and then use the same 4 furlong interval at routes, which comprises only half of the race.

[Lefty]

delay, EquiSim Handle's very own softwhere. Go to www.thorotech.com and read all about it, download the demo.

[hurrikane]

some of the problem is where Fr2 falls in a route.
Sometimes it is completely in the turn, sometimes half of the fraction is on the turn..sometimes it's all on the backstretch. In sprints it pretty much falls on the turn.

delay...recheck his post. Believe he said
Fr1 sprints 2f routes 4f
fr2 sprints 4f routes 6f.

[delayjf]

Sorry for any confusion, the pace interval I was interested in was the 6 furlong pace figure for route races. For Sartin / HTW users I believe its the equivilant of EP or second call velocity. In as much as Fotias uses the 4 furlong velocity rating in sprints which comprises 3/4 of most sprints, it seemed to me that the second call velocity rating in routes (6 furlongs) would be more predictive than just the 4 furlong velocity rating, which is what he uses in routes. Hope this helps

HURRIKANE,
Good point about where the F2 interval takes place. Same can be said about the turn time in some sprints ie in 7-furlong sprints, most of the turn time is not on the turn. How does one adjust??? but that's another topic.

[hurrikane]

delay,

got it. Still, the problem I have with EP in routes is in where the 2f second call falls in relation to the turn home.

I'm no pace guru but I can't get a useful application across races with EP in routes. Also, fr1 isn't used much by the public in routes which may be why you can find juicy overlays.

I haven't done the research but have heard over on HTR that an AP top is a good indicator of form.

[Handle]

delayjf,

On another note, did the second call (6 furlong) pace number work at all by it's self, without combining it with the first call (routes). Interesting that equiform would use a 4 furlong pace figure with sprints which compromises about 3/4 of the race and then use the same 4 furlong interval at routes, which comprises only half of the race.

I'm not sure what your question is getting at. I guess I don't know what "by itself" means in this context. The BRIS 6 furlong pace figure, in a route, is composed of the time from 0 furlongs to 6 furlongs. So, in essence, it is always used "by itself".

This might help.
We want to simulate a race. A route race, say 8 furlongs long.
How fast is the horse running in the first 4 furlongs? Use the 4 furlong pace figure.

How fast is the horse running between the 4 and 6 furlongs of the race? Here we can't just use the 6 furlong pace figure because it is composed of the total 6 furlong time which includes the time it took to run the first 4 furlongs that we've already accounted for. We can apply a formula to derive a "4 to 6 furlong pace figure" from the two pace figures. We can then use that derived pace figure to determine how fast the horse is running between the 4rth and 6th furlong during the race.

What I'm saying is that EquiSim's current simulation engine produces more simulation winners in ROUTES when the 4 furlong (E1) pace figure is not even considered -- only the 6 furlong pace figure is considered as the "early" factor of the race. However, in SPRINTS, the simulation engine produces more winners when both the E1 and E2 are used as described above.

This seems to have some implication that the 6 furlong pace figure is more insightful in routes. But this reference is extremely application dependent as many other factors are invovled in the simulations EquiSim generates.

-Nathan

[PMANN1]

I haven't read his book but I've done what Zafonic has done with Bris. I've looked for new tops at the first and second fraction for a couple of years now. The new tops work even better when the horse tires at the end. This angle points out some nice longshots. With Bris I've found you have to be careful with internal fractions on off tracks. I almost always ignore fractions on a turf race labeled good. With dirt I've found the internal fractions are often faster than normal for a horse on an off track(I'm not sure why) and I use them with discretion as they appear to help a horse sometimes unlike the gd rating for turf.

[delayjf]

Handle,
Again, sorry for the confusion, You answered my question, which was which pace rating is more predictive of improved performance in route races. According to you, the 6 furlong pace rating is superior to the 4 furlong pace rating. this makes sence to me. Equiform uses the 4 furlong pace rating in both sprints and routes which I found interesting. Good to hear that others have successfully applied his theories to their pace figures as well.