How many winners = a good day?

[xciceroguy]

I won three out of eight races today at the opener at Oak Tree. My loses were very low. My question: realisticly how many races do you have to win on average to consider yourself a good handicapper? 40% 50% 60% or better?

xciceroguy

[46zilzal]

ROI not number of winning tickets.

[Dan Montilion]

Two to three wins a season usually makes my year. In 1992 I went 58 straight racing days without a winning day.

[JustRalph]

I think it is the quality of the wins that counts..........

ROI is everything.........me and the doc agree on that point..........

Don't ever forget that this game will turn you on your head just about the time you think you are winning...........

when you can see the ball better than other days.......take advantage......

[dav4463]

If I'm playing ten races, I will gladly take one $30 winner, two $15 winners, three $10 winners, or six $5 winners ! I would rather be a bad handicapper who hits that one 14-1 shot, than be a good handicapper who picks five winners at even money.

[Indulto]

I won three out of eight races today at the opener at Oak Tree. My loses were very low. My question: realisticly how many races do you have to win on average to consider yourself a good handicapper? 40% 50% 60% or better?

xciceroguyxcg,
Sometimes even 100% doesn't mean one's a good handicapper.

My offspring offered to be openly seen with me on the opening day scene at Oak Tree to acquire eight freebie clubhouse passes for a subsequent organizied outing of some sort.

We got there in time for the 6th to play the P4 and two P3s. Very chalky, but 3 favorites and a 2nd choice paid $76.00 in the P4 and $17.60 and $30.30 in the P3s as OBVIOUS contenders. Not too bad for a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = $16 and two 2 x 2 x 2 = $8 ($32 total) for a cheap, but entertaining thrill that had a good-priced possibility going in two of them.

What made it a profitable day though was NOT getting there a race earlier when my 13-1 pick finished 2nd in what would have been an expensive P5 play which would have precluded payment from the following foursome.;)

What made it a WINNING day was that the offspring finally learned a valuable lesson. Six of the eight passes were for weekdays only, and the other two for next Saturday only. When it sounds too good to be true, it probably is -- especially at the racetrack. :D

[K9Pup]

I won three out of eight races today at the opener at Oak Tree. My loses were very low. My question: realisticly how many races do you have to win on average to consider yourself a good handicapper? 40% 50% 60% or better?

xciceroguy

IMO a "good" handicapper can pick 40% + winners in their selected races. A profitable handicapper is one who can bring home more money than they left with. Being good doesn't always equate to be profitable, but it is defintely a good starting point.

[CBedo]

Different people get there different ways. Some have a higher win percentage at a lower average mutual. The other extreme is the longshot player who has a fairly low win percentage but an extremely high average mutual. What's right? It's pretty personal, and has more to do with your methodology and psychological makeup than anything else.

Personally, I start with how can I maximize my edge or ROI. Then I evaluate whether at that ROI level, can I get enough money through the windows to attain the return on invested capital that I want. Just like any business, your return on assets is not only a function of your profit margin (edge), but also your asset turnover (wager amount).

GL

[Bill Cullen]

How many winners = a good day?

How many balls of string does it take to reach the moon?

One, if it's big enough.

Bill C

[kitts]

Dan's got it right. I look forward to 2-3 very good days annually.

[Wickel]

If you've done your homework, have the proper funds, have your ducks in a row--and if the stars are aligned just right--all you need is one good hit a day, or a week, for that matter.

[xciceroguy]

ROI not number of winning tickets.

What does one do to insure a decent ROI? Play the gimmicks?

[Overlay]

Bet when the odds or payoff on the wager (either straight or exotic) are higher than your estimated probability of winning the bet, based either on historical performance, intuition, or the use of statistics.

[Tom]

I once hit 7 in a row at Batvia Downs and lost the last three.
Came home losing money!
Great handicapper - lousy bettor.

Had I lost the first 7 and hit only one of the last three, I would have made money on the night.

[Robert Fischer]

Required win percentage will be relative to your approach. Did you meet your goals?

[46zilzal]

What does one do to insure a decent ROI? Play the gimmicks?
you have to at times when it is appropriate.

[FORGO]

We have all had a dry streak now and again. It is what you learn from your dry streak that counts. One of the greatest revelations I had came to me when I kept losing with Jerry Bailey on my top contender. I decided if I was going to lose money anyway I would go out and purposely try to lose the exacta when I played the Trifecta. Here is my plays with my selections 1-all-3 Reverse3-all-1 2-all-3 reverse 3-all-2. I would purpously only play Jerry Baily for second or third. I hit one Trifecta for $3,200.00. My #3 -all with Jerry Bailey for third. My second horse was a shipper who had just had a good race at another track. When things are not working right and you are frustrated go a head and try losing money in another way. If you are willing to lose money anyway have fun doing it. Thats the time to exsperiment. Remember if you are having bad luck stop following the all the rules that don't work. Stop regroup retrain and take some time away from the track. Reform your attitude and your approach.You win by small victories one track one day 3races you feel you can beat. MASTER WAGERING and money management. But have a good time first. FARGO:)

[Zman179]

One day, I went 1 for 20 and won $300. Another day, I went 7 for 9 and lost money.
It doesn't matter how many winners you pick, only thing that matters is how many tickets you cash.

[Overlay]

It doesn't matter how many winners you pick, only thing that matters is how many tickets you cash.

...or (as your example illustrates) how much you make on the tickets that you cash versus how much you lose on the tickets that you don't.

[twindouble]

One day, I went 1 for 20 and won $300. Another day, I went 7 for 9 and lost money.
It doesn't matter how many winners you pick, only thing that matters is how many tickets you cash.

I agree Zman;

I liken it to going to a flee market or an estate sale. (many tracks, many races) A buddy of mine is very astute on everything from records, dishware, jewelry, furniture, well you name it. I went with him a few times, thinking I learn the ropes. Well everything I thought was worth buying he puts back. LOL. The freaking guy has an eagle eye when it comes to value, pieces that most walked by he was loading up with, ESP on estate sales, he did his home work prior and is an early bird. Remember the first day at the track looking at the racing form, that's the way I felt.:confused: There was no way I was going to learn the business without being totally committed to it like he was for many years. My point here is, he could latch onto just one or two items and laugh all the way to the bank or multiple ones striking gold as well. Hell, I couldn't tell rhinestone stone from a diamond.

I would say is "risk factor" was low, compared to the horses. Not that he didn't get taken here and there early on, even today he admits he got taken by other pros along the way, a couple times for serious money, like juiced up horses. You know, that pick 4 or pick 6 you had going for a big score and some pig improves 10 lengths and you get beat. He even admits to getting "lucky", what he thought was one thing turned out to be something else worth a lot money. Like that 40-1 shot you threw in the gimmick because you saw something in the the horse.


I know, it's a round about way to make a point, I'm just honing up on my writing skills. :D

T.D.

[Zman179]

Overlay -
Sometimes, it's that one bomb that'll put you over the top. I'd be the first to admit that my money management skills would have to rise 2 or 3 levels just to obtain the level of "lacking," but I think that it's more important to limit your potential losses over trying to increase your potential gains, that is, when you first walk into the track, or have lost the first couple of races. I usually have the mindset that I will not bet more than $15 a race until I can cash something. This way, if I have a bad day, it'll still hurt, but not as badly as say betting $30 a race and then bowling a duck.

Twin-
Your friend typifies the saying, "You've gotta pay to learn." This game hasn't come cheap to me to learn either (sheet, I'm still payin'.)

[Hammerhead]

1

[46zilzal]

9th race - Woodbine - September 29, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Royal Slam 42.60 19.90 9.50
2 Bear's Kid 9.90 7.10
5 Disbelief 4.80

one a day like this can do it.

[K9Pup]

9th race - Woodbine - September 29, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Royal Slam 42.60 19.90 9.50
2 Bear's Kid 9.90 7.10
5 Disbelief 4.80

one a day like this can do it.

Depending on how many other races you have to play to hit this one.

[timtam]

Dan & Kitt,

With having 58 straight losing days how do you bankroll such a long

losing streak. Did you mean you were in the red for 58 days then made it

up with one or two big winning days? Stanley Vitzokski used to sell methods

where he would brag you have 24 out of 26 winning days but he never

mentioned those 2 losing days would totally wipe out your winning days.

I am certainly not doubting your doing it but if you could give us some

advice I would be thankful.

[twindouble]

Dan & Kitt,

With having 58 straight losing days how do you bankroll such a long

losing streak. Did you mean you were in the red for 58 days then made it

up with one or two big winning days? Stanley Vitzokski used to sell methods

where he would brag you have 24 out of 26 winning days but he never

mentioned those 2 losing days would totally wipe out your winning days.

I am certainly not doubting your doing it but if you could give us some

advice I would be thankful.

timtam; A good handicapper can go for some time not being in the black from day to day, for the simple reason he won't lose all the races he plays. In other words the bankroll isn't being distroyed, just weakened somewhat or more at times.

T.D.

[46zilzal]

timtam; A good handicapper can go for some time not being in the black from day to day, for the simple reason he won't lose all the races he plays. In other words the bankroll isn't being destroyed, just weakened somewhat or more at times.


cannot find fault with this statement. Pure randomness will eat you alive some days. I went through a time this past Summer : DQ'd, rider thrown out of the gate, rider dropped the whip, in tight down the strech and taken up, photo camera not my friend, broke down, fell.......These are NORMAL happenings which (unless you are a realist and understand the potential of this happening every race) can so discourage people (would have made me change my modus opernadi earlier in my career which is always a mistake) that they begin to "chase" those dollars.

One of the great psychological things that Howard Sartin taught were the three "C's" Confidence, CONSISTENCY, looking for CORRELARIES to substantiate your choices.

[46zilzal]

There are a myriad of angles we use and often after ONE works repeatedly, we don't stop to think that it is NO LONGER working and stay with it. We simply get into ruts that usually WE cannot see and it helps to have a friend (objectively) help us to discover them.

Don't think I have EVER met a capper immune to this.

[twindouble]

cannot find fault with this statement. Pure randomness will eat you alive some days. I went through a time this past Summer : DQ'd, rider thrown out of the gate, rider dropped the whip, in tight down the strech and taken up, photo camera not my friend, broke down, fell.......These are NORMAL happenings which (unless you are a realist and understand the potential of this happening every race) can so discourage people (would have made me change my modus opernadi earlier in my career which is always a mistake) that they begin to "chase" those dollars.

One of the great psychological things that Howard Sartin taught were the three "C's" Confidence, CONSISTENCY, looking for CORRELARIES to substantiate your choices.

To think I could have said something "great" some 40 or more years ago. :eek:

Yes, like I said before we can do some dam good handicapping and still get beat. No reason to go off the deep end and change what your doing.

[Dan Montilion]

Timtam,

I dusted of my Mead Composition book of betting records for 1992. And I have to admit that poor run I stated has grown legs in the past 14 years. However, it was 43 consecutive losing days. Now the amount squandered in that time was weighted to the front end of the cycle, at some point I realised I was on major tilt and went into bankroll preservation mode. The bankroll was never in danger at this time for a few reasons.

1. I was very, very well funded for my betting level.
2. I was having a very good year going into this disasterous run.
3. As stated above I became very protective of the bank.
4. I'm very comfortable with my approach and I undertand its problems (long losing runs).
5. My approach is to play for the big hit and hope to trade money the rest of the time ie... play even around the big days.

To your specific question. I looked into the betting records and no I did not make up the dollars lost during the losing run. After this ugly cycle I was able to recapture about a quarter of the lost cash during the poor run. Indeed that 25% recovery did occur on just one day while the rest of the year I just traded money. Now understand that while this was going on I was not really aware of recouping a portion the poor cycle losses as the eye was on the big picture, which was a positive year. I've just stated this after looking at the records.

My play is geared towards the big day. My approach is like that of my mentor Ron Cox. Ron had a "go for throat" approach. To survive the losing runs that occur number 1 of the above is imparative. I use a seat of the pants range of .25% to .65% of bank, at that time I did not want to go to the window unless I was wagering $100. The math is there for all to see what sized bank I needed for my comfort level. I'm neither embarassed nor proud to state this number. Note that in the middle of the 43 day ugliness the minimum .25% of bank is at some point ended and it comes down to very small dollar wagers. I can guess the next question. Well how do you know when to step back out. I've stared at the monitor for way too long trying to come up with a good answer. And this is the best I can do... You will know when you know.

[timtam]

Thanks Dan ,

I really appreciate you taking the time for your answer.

I did get a good picture of what happened and how you handled it. I made

many mistakes over the years and wish I would have even a quarter of the

money I bet trying to get in the black for the day. Too soon old and too

late schmart. ;)

[xciceroguy]

Wow this is all some great feedback. I appreciate all the posts. I guess the theme being posted here is to try and get quality wins or wins at a better price. I don't go to the track as often as i would like to so i can't be a picky about what races i bet on. I try to bet them all. And in doing this i guess i settle for quantity of wins versus quality. Thanks for the great feedback.

[K9Pup]

Wow this is all some great feedback. I appreciate all the posts. I guess the theme being posted here is to try and get quality wins or wins at a better price. I don't go to the track as often as i would like to so i can't be a picky about what races i bet on. I try to bet them all. And in doing this i guess i settle for quantity of wins versus quality. Thanks for the great feedback.

IMO YOU need to decide what your real goal is and WHY you want to play the horses. If your goal is strictly to make money, then you need to be concerned with getting value for your bets. Set strict rules and standards for which races to play, which horses to bet. If on the other hand you are a recreational player who ocassionally gets to wager then your "rules" can be less restrictive. Full well knowing that you may lose money.

Going to the track once or twice a month playing by strict selection rules isn't much fun. Not much action, even though overall you MIGHT come out ahead. Playing every race and getting your rear end handed to you isn't much fun either.

[xciceroguy]

I pretty much play the horses more for a hobby than anything else. Perhaps some entertainment also. And if i can make a few bucks than that's just great.