DrugSalvastore
09-25-2006, 10:55 PM
I'm unveiling a new website.
Pretty much just to try something a little different. I'm doing a weekly column on it and I'm offering free full card analysis for the next ten days at Belmont. A few of my friends think it's a bad idea...but, I should have fun with it.
Anywhere...here is my full card analysis for Wed. at Belmont. The website's url is www.tripanalysis.com (http://www.tripanalysis.com)
Belmont Park 9/27
Race 1 (If you must bet this race, demand value)
A very treacherous bottom level claiming race to start the day. In this field of eight, anyone of seven different horses can realistically win. You have to avoid taking a short price in races like this. #5 JIMMY THE K looks to have a clear-cut pace advantage over this entire group, and his last two efforts at Belmont Park have resulted in wire-to-wire victories with Beyers of 72 and 85. There's not a single horse in the field who's run a figure better than a 72 in it's last two starts. So, why isn't Jimmy The K a slam-dunk? Because those two wins were over sloppy and sealed tracks, and there is a 0% chance of rain according to early weather forecasts. This horse is 2-for-5 on off-tracks, and 1-for-18 lifetime in all other races. His best Beyer on a fast dirt track is just a 60. His win last time out was hardly that impressive either, he went wire-to-wire, and the horse who finished 2nd was pressing him from 2nd throughout the entire running of the race. It's not like he fractured his pace rival or anything. #7 IMPEACHTHEPRO and #8 TALE OF WOE both exit a race at Monmouth Park where they faced real unfavorable circumstances. They found themselves rating in last and 2nd to last place behind a slow first quarter of 22.66, by comparison, a 10K MCL race, and a $5K claiming race for NJ bred mares, both featured an opening quarter 2/5ths faster, in earlier races on that card! Basically, Impeachthepro and Tale Of Woe had no hope. The winner of that race went wire-to-wire and the 2nd place finisher was 2nd at every call. Impeachthepro closed for 3rd. This horse also had a terrible trip at Saratoga against tougher two starts back. He's obviously much better than his recent form suggests, however, he leaves the barn of "Super Trainer" Bruce Levine, as he was claimed by Gary Contessa for the 3rd time in less than one year. This classy old horse ran his seasons best 90 Beyer last time Contessa saddled him. His last win also came for Contessa. He has banked over $700K and once upset Say Florida Sandy in a stake over this track. However, he gets very little pace, has a cold (1-for-54 at meet) jockey, and Levine couldn't win with him in 6 tries. For those reasons, I don't think I'll bet him. Tale of Woe ran sneaky good last time, and is running for the cheapest price of his career, he just has no pace to run into. #4 MORE HECK is worth tossing underneath in exotics at a fat price. He's 18-4-7-2 lifetime at Belmont, and 11-1-0-2 lifetime everywhere else. This is his track.
Race 2 (Exacta box 5 OVER 1A-2-4)
A pair of debuters, for fashionable barns (Rick Dutrow Jr. and Linda Rice) may take some money in here. However, the horses with experience in this race should hold a strong edge. The Dutrow/Prado firster worked just 22 3/5ths at OBS March while under pretty excessive whipping. By comparison, #1A BELLBOTTOM JOHNNY worked a much more fluent 21 4/5th seconds on the same day, at that same sale. The Linda Rice debuter was actually entered in a $50K MCL race in August at Saratoga, but was scratched. The mother of this horse was 8-for-30 and made over six figures in dirt route races. She was out of the exacta in 7 lifetime tries in all other races. Being by sire Victory Gallop leads one to believe she'll be better at longer distances later on. #5 TRICKY TUCK ran a markedly improved race last time out, while getting hung out four wide throughout the far turn. Horse who beat him had softer trip, and returned to run 2nd in a stake race last Sunday. #4 GALAXY EXPRESS was bet to 5/2 odds in his debut, and was able to make the lead from tricky inside post before tiring late. A horse who finished behind him in that race, came back to win a NY Bred MSW race by 4 lengths and paid $87.50, albeit it was over a sloppy track.
Race 3 (Selections: Bet #3)
This race is going to feature a heavily bet entry that I don't want any part of. #1 Crayda has been claimed away from 32% super trainer Peter Walder, a guy who needed only three starts from this horse to move her up 30 Beyer points over the winter. She's failed as the favorite in back-to-back races at or below this level. She doesn't have to win. #1A A BIT OF PRESSURE is probably the most likely winner of this race, and either of her two lifetime races over the Belmont dirt beats this group. However, she was AWFUL in her last two starts, getting loose on an uncontested lead and spitting the bit two starts back. Last time out she finished last in a four horse field, and was beaten a long ways by the 3rd place finisher. I really liked Babyifyourgoodtogo's last race---however, she goes from Todd Pletcher's barn to a trainer who is just 4-for-109 this year. I'll stab and bet #3 MY FAVORITE PET. She's won three in a row at the distance, all by clear margins, and she should find herself leading again over this uninspiring field.
Race 4 (Selections: 8-7-3)
#8 BURN ONE TURN ONE's dam was in the money in seven of nine career turf tries, albeit without winning. This guy set the pace and ran a decent 2nd in 12 horse field in only career turf start at 7.5 furlongs. Should find this type of race to his liking, and was lucky enough to catch a really poor looking field for the level. #7 HERCULES is clearly the main danger to the top pick. This guy has sharp speed, but, is a total stopper on the dirt. The dam won a turf sprint in her career, and offspring of Forestry seem to be super effective sprinting on the turf. Note this horse has worked twice over the lawn since his last race. Trainer wins a lot of races with turf sprinters. Expect improvement. #3 FORTISSI MORE may not have much ability, but atleast he has a turf pedigree...and that's more than can be said for many of these who drew into the main body of the race.
Race 5 (Selections: 6-5-7)
This whole race really centers on what you do with #6 MEN'S CLUB. He seems to be in very sharp form, however, what is the deal with all of these disconcerting class drops he's been taking? He wins a 75K claimer by open lengths, and next thing you know, he's in for 50K. After being claimed for 50K, he runs a strong race behind a dream trip wire-to-wire winner who has since returned to upset an allowance field---off that real solid performance, why is he being dropped from 65K to 35K? And, why is Rudy Rodriguez still riding him? Men's Club has run twice at Belmont, and his Beyers of 85 and 84 are higher than anyone else in the field has run all year. This horse can't lose this race on paper, however, he clearly has some physical problems. #5 MR. MUGS might be the best alternative. He was announced as a gelding for the first time prior to his last start, and ran 3rd without the easiest of trips. He was very washy before that race, so a positive appearance in the pre-race would be most encouraging. The rider change from Pablo Morales to Edgar Prado is encouraging. Improved dramatically in second start of the form cycle when winning his debut easily at todays distance. He does need Men's Club to regress in order to have any chance. #7 PRAIRIE BOY is an honest enough horse. He ran a competitive figure in his most recent dirt start, and goes turf-to-dirt for trainer who is 38% and very profitable with that move.
Race 6- (Selections: 4-2-6)
#4 CAT'S REVENGE has put three pretty solid races in a row together. He figures to appreciate the cut-back in distance. I also expect him to be the one overlooked in the betting among the main contenders in this race. #2 EXTON has never run a bad race over firm turf. He's also earned stakes placing over the surface, when he was third behind multiple turf stakes winners Barbaro and Diabolical in the LRL Futurity last year. Draws favorable rail post, and note that trainer is 27% and has a $3.48 ROI with horses going from dirt-to-turf, from a triple digit sample size. The four second place finishes from eight lifetime starts is pretty disconcerting. #6 GREENERY is once again entered against colts. She figures to improve with starts for trainer who very rarely has them at their best first time out. She did get a pretty good setup last time out, from a pace standpoint.
Race 7 (Exacta Box 4-6. Selections: 4-6-8)
#4 ARTISTIC EXPRESS and #6 REWRITE were both very circumstantial losers last time out, they ran much better than what their efforts on paper may indicate. They have also have each run superior races to the rest of this field. These NY bred turf stakes often seem to be very circumstantial races that have a good deal of chaos to them. I don't see it happening here though. These two look clearly best. #8 HOMERETTE was a perfect trip stakes winner last time out. She's a very honest type who always gets a piece. Gets Prado.
Race 8 (Selections: Single #4 in all multi-win exotics)
How tremendous did #4 CARRIAGE TRAIL look in her dirt victory two starts back? Well, lets first consider 5 horses went wire-to-wire that day, and the horse in front after a half mile produced a record of 10-6-3-0. So, she overcame a track kind to speed. The pace wasn't all that fast, but that didn't matter, as she had no problem closing into it. Maybe most impressive, was the fact that the final time for the race was a jaw-dropping 1.68 seconds faster than the final time in an open N2X for filles and mares, at the same distance, later on in the card! Basically, she was dynamite. Her pedigree is all dirt, no turf on bottom--her trainer isn't very bright, he's kind of slow actually, but I think he's finally figured her out. 6.5 furlongs is obviously a much shorter distance than she wants...hopefully it doesn't take Shug forever to get that right. Carriage Trial isn't running at the correct distance, but at least the trainer has her on the correct surface. The three horses drawn on the inside are absolute need-the-lead types. Those three horses have combined for eight lifetime wins, and all eight of them have come in wire-to-wire fashion. The pace should be very hot. Even though Carriage Trail is a slam-dunk in this spot---she really has no business being in here. At this distance, and with this race-shape, it's the kind of race that might possibly screw her up in subsequent races.
Race 9 (Selections: 1-11-9)
The dam of #1 IVANOVSKY is a sibling to 11 different turf winners, 7 of which won stake races over the lawn!! You have to assume they paid $950,000 for this horse with turf racing in mind. He was second beaten less than one length in his turf debut, a future multiple Graded Stakes winning turf horse named After Market beat him. The 3rd place finisher in that race has been fairly competitive in turf stakes lately. However, since that race, Ivanovsky has failed twice more, albeit against tougher. Pletcher has had his fill of this horse, he's in for a tag, and he draws the rail. Note Pletcher is 33% and profitable with the MSW-to-MCL move. #11 WATCHTOWER was VERY aggressively warmed up prior to his last start. It's a bizarre thing to see done to a horse stretching out over a quarter mile in distance, and running in an 11 furlong turf marathon. Not surprisingly, after being put on his toes with that move in the warm-up, he did not relax much and set a fast pace for the distance before tiring very badly late. Have to wonder if he's maybe a bit arthritic after seeing him warmed up like that last time. The cut-back in distance should be to his liking. Royally bred son of Dubai Millennium out of a Group 1 winning Euro mare is offered up for a tag for the first time. #9 SILVER CLIFF also has a decent turf pedigree--but it's more subtle, so this guy isn't a monumental flop like the top two picks. He's run a pair of pretty decent 4th's at this level and he should improve with the huge rider switch from the dreadful Herberto Castillo Jr. to Kent D.
Pretty much just to try something a little different. I'm doing a weekly column on it and I'm offering free full card analysis for the next ten days at Belmont. A few of my friends think it's a bad idea...but, I should have fun with it.
Anywhere...here is my full card analysis for Wed. at Belmont. The website's url is www.tripanalysis.com (http://www.tripanalysis.com)
Belmont Park 9/27
Race 1 (If you must bet this race, demand value)
A very treacherous bottom level claiming race to start the day. In this field of eight, anyone of seven different horses can realistically win. You have to avoid taking a short price in races like this. #5 JIMMY THE K looks to have a clear-cut pace advantage over this entire group, and his last two efforts at Belmont Park have resulted in wire-to-wire victories with Beyers of 72 and 85. There's not a single horse in the field who's run a figure better than a 72 in it's last two starts. So, why isn't Jimmy The K a slam-dunk? Because those two wins were over sloppy and sealed tracks, and there is a 0% chance of rain according to early weather forecasts. This horse is 2-for-5 on off-tracks, and 1-for-18 lifetime in all other races. His best Beyer on a fast dirt track is just a 60. His win last time out was hardly that impressive either, he went wire-to-wire, and the horse who finished 2nd was pressing him from 2nd throughout the entire running of the race. It's not like he fractured his pace rival or anything. #7 IMPEACHTHEPRO and #8 TALE OF WOE both exit a race at Monmouth Park where they faced real unfavorable circumstances. They found themselves rating in last and 2nd to last place behind a slow first quarter of 22.66, by comparison, a 10K MCL race, and a $5K claiming race for NJ bred mares, both featured an opening quarter 2/5ths faster, in earlier races on that card! Basically, Impeachthepro and Tale Of Woe had no hope. The winner of that race went wire-to-wire and the 2nd place finisher was 2nd at every call. Impeachthepro closed for 3rd. This horse also had a terrible trip at Saratoga against tougher two starts back. He's obviously much better than his recent form suggests, however, he leaves the barn of "Super Trainer" Bruce Levine, as he was claimed by Gary Contessa for the 3rd time in less than one year. This classy old horse ran his seasons best 90 Beyer last time Contessa saddled him. His last win also came for Contessa. He has banked over $700K and once upset Say Florida Sandy in a stake over this track. However, he gets very little pace, has a cold (1-for-54 at meet) jockey, and Levine couldn't win with him in 6 tries. For those reasons, I don't think I'll bet him. Tale of Woe ran sneaky good last time, and is running for the cheapest price of his career, he just has no pace to run into. #4 MORE HECK is worth tossing underneath in exotics at a fat price. He's 18-4-7-2 lifetime at Belmont, and 11-1-0-2 lifetime everywhere else. This is his track.
Race 2 (Exacta box 5 OVER 1A-2-4)
A pair of debuters, for fashionable barns (Rick Dutrow Jr. and Linda Rice) may take some money in here. However, the horses with experience in this race should hold a strong edge. The Dutrow/Prado firster worked just 22 3/5ths at OBS March while under pretty excessive whipping. By comparison, #1A BELLBOTTOM JOHNNY worked a much more fluent 21 4/5th seconds on the same day, at that same sale. The Linda Rice debuter was actually entered in a $50K MCL race in August at Saratoga, but was scratched. The mother of this horse was 8-for-30 and made over six figures in dirt route races. She was out of the exacta in 7 lifetime tries in all other races. Being by sire Victory Gallop leads one to believe she'll be better at longer distances later on. #5 TRICKY TUCK ran a markedly improved race last time out, while getting hung out four wide throughout the far turn. Horse who beat him had softer trip, and returned to run 2nd in a stake race last Sunday. #4 GALAXY EXPRESS was bet to 5/2 odds in his debut, and was able to make the lead from tricky inside post before tiring late. A horse who finished behind him in that race, came back to win a NY Bred MSW race by 4 lengths and paid $87.50, albeit it was over a sloppy track.
Race 3 (Selections: Bet #3)
This race is going to feature a heavily bet entry that I don't want any part of. #1 Crayda has been claimed away from 32% super trainer Peter Walder, a guy who needed only three starts from this horse to move her up 30 Beyer points over the winter. She's failed as the favorite in back-to-back races at or below this level. She doesn't have to win. #1A A BIT OF PRESSURE is probably the most likely winner of this race, and either of her two lifetime races over the Belmont dirt beats this group. However, she was AWFUL in her last two starts, getting loose on an uncontested lead and spitting the bit two starts back. Last time out she finished last in a four horse field, and was beaten a long ways by the 3rd place finisher. I really liked Babyifyourgoodtogo's last race---however, she goes from Todd Pletcher's barn to a trainer who is just 4-for-109 this year. I'll stab and bet #3 MY FAVORITE PET. She's won three in a row at the distance, all by clear margins, and she should find herself leading again over this uninspiring field.
Race 4 (Selections: 8-7-3)
#8 BURN ONE TURN ONE's dam was in the money in seven of nine career turf tries, albeit without winning. This guy set the pace and ran a decent 2nd in 12 horse field in only career turf start at 7.5 furlongs. Should find this type of race to his liking, and was lucky enough to catch a really poor looking field for the level. #7 HERCULES is clearly the main danger to the top pick. This guy has sharp speed, but, is a total stopper on the dirt. The dam won a turf sprint in her career, and offspring of Forestry seem to be super effective sprinting on the turf. Note this horse has worked twice over the lawn since his last race. Trainer wins a lot of races with turf sprinters. Expect improvement. #3 FORTISSI MORE may not have much ability, but atleast he has a turf pedigree...and that's more than can be said for many of these who drew into the main body of the race.
Race 5 (Selections: 6-5-7)
This whole race really centers on what you do with #6 MEN'S CLUB. He seems to be in very sharp form, however, what is the deal with all of these disconcerting class drops he's been taking? He wins a 75K claimer by open lengths, and next thing you know, he's in for 50K. After being claimed for 50K, he runs a strong race behind a dream trip wire-to-wire winner who has since returned to upset an allowance field---off that real solid performance, why is he being dropped from 65K to 35K? And, why is Rudy Rodriguez still riding him? Men's Club has run twice at Belmont, and his Beyers of 85 and 84 are higher than anyone else in the field has run all year. This horse can't lose this race on paper, however, he clearly has some physical problems. #5 MR. MUGS might be the best alternative. He was announced as a gelding for the first time prior to his last start, and ran 3rd without the easiest of trips. He was very washy before that race, so a positive appearance in the pre-race would be most encouraging. The rider change from Pablo Morales to Edgar Prado is encouraging. Improved dramatically in second start of the form cycle when winning his debut easily at todays distance. He does need Men's Club to regress in order to have any chance. #7 PRAIRIE BOY is an honest enough horse. He ran a competitive figure in his most recent dirt start, and goes turf-to-dirt for trainer who is 38% and very profitable with that move.
Race 6- (Selections: 4-2-6)
#4 CAT'S REVENGE has put three pretty solid races in a row together. He figures to appreciate the cut-back in distance. I also expect him to be the one overlooked in the betting among the main contenders in this race. #2 EXTON has never run a bad race over firm turf. He's also earned stakes placing over the surface, when he was third behind multiple turf stakes winners Barbaro and Diabolical in the LRL Futurity last year. Draws favorable rail post, and note that trainer is 27% and has a $3.48 ROI with horses going from dirt-to-turf, from a triple digit sample size. The four second place finishes from eight lifetime starts is pretty disconcerting. #6 GREENERY is once again entered against colts. She figures to improve with starts for trainer who very rarely has them at their best first time out. She did get a pretty good setup last time out, from a pace standpoint.
Race 7 (Exacta Box 4-6. Selections: 4-6-8)
#4 ARTISTIC EXPRESS and #6 REWRITE were both very circumstantial losers last time out, they ran much better than what their efforts on paper may indicate. They have also have each run superior races to the rest of this field. These NY bred turf stakes often seem to be very circumstantial races that have a good deal of chaos to them. I don't see it happening here though. These two look clearly best. #8 HOMERETTE was a perfect trip stakes winner last time out. She's a very honest type who always gets a piece. Gets Prado.
Race 8 (Selections: Single #4 in all multi-win exotics)
How tremendous did #4 CARRIAGE TRAIL look in her dirt victory two starts back? Well, lets first consider 5 horses went wire-to-wire that day, and the horse in front after a half mile produced a record of 10-6-3-0. So, she overcame a track kind to speed. The pace wasn't all that fast, but that didn't matter, as she had no problem closing into it. Maybe most impressive, was the fact that the final time for the race was a jaw-dropping 1.68 seconds faster than the final time in an open N2X for filles and mares, at the same distance, later on in the card! Basically, she was dynamite. Her pedigree is all dirt, no turf on bottom--her trainer isn't very bright, he's kind of slow actually, but I think he's finally figured her out. 6.5 furlongs is obviously a much shorter distance than she wants...hopefully it doesn't take Shug forever to get that right. Carriage Trial isn't running at the correct distance, but at least the trainer has her on the correct surface. The three horses drawn on the inside are absolute need-the-lead types. Those three horses have combined for eight lifetime wins, and all eight of them have come in wire-to-wire fashion. The pace should be very hot. Even though Carriage Trail is a slam-dunk in this spot---she really has no business being in here. At this distance, and with this race-shape, it's the kind of race that might possibly screw her up in subsequent races.
Race 9 (Selections: 1-11-9)
The dam of #1 IVANOVSKY is a sibling to 11 different turf winners, 7 of which won stake races over the lawn!! You have to assume they paid $950,000 for this horse with turf racing in mind. He was second beaten less than one length in his turf debut, a future multiple Graded Stakes winning turf horse named After Market beat him. The 3rd place finisher in that race has been fairly competitive in turf stakes lately. However, since that race, Ivanovsky has failed twice more, albeit against tougher. Pletcher has had his fill of this horse, he's in for a tag, and he draws the rail. Note Pletcher is 33% and profitable with the MSW-to-MCL move. #11 WATCHTOWER was VERY aggressively warmed up prior to his last start. It's a bizarre thing to see done to a horse stretching out over a quarter mile in distance, and running in an 11 furlong turf marathon. Not surprisingly, after being put on his toes with that move in the warm-up, he did not relax much and set a fast pace for the distance before tiring very badly late. Have to wonder if he's maybe a bit arthritic after seeing him warmed up like that last time. The cut-back in distance should be to his liking. Royally bred son of Dubai Millennium out of a Group 1 winning Euro mare is offered up for a tag for the first time. #9 SILVER CLIFF also has a decent turf pedigree--but it's more subtle, so this guy isn't a monumental flop like the top two picks. He's run a pair of pretty decent 4th's at this level and he should improve with the huge rider switch from the dreadful Herberto Castillo Jr. to Kent D.