Real Estate

[the_fat_man]

I was very interested in today's 2nd race (for a number of reasons) and

now I'm wondering why RE was not entered in the Futurity.

At least we know RE can definitely get 7F (and more).

You know Levine is hopped up about this one, given the very animated

exchange between he and Gomez after the race. Gomez liked him too.

[DrugSalvastore]

It would have been insane (actually D. Wayne Lukas like) to debut that horse in the Futurity.

Despite the fact he's a half sibling to such rocketships as Madcap Escapade, and Dubai Escapade.....he was pretty chilly on the board (He paid over $15 to win) which, to me, suggests that no one associated with that horse was very confident of victory today...or at least really liked his chances.

When you have that kind of pedigree...and you have a top trainer like Bruce Levine...you have to be expected to take more money than that.

I actually did well betting this race---and the fact that Madcap Escapade paid $31 to win her debut (and she won by a pole) wasn't lost on me.

However, debuting this horse in the Futurity would have been the height of stupidity.

Certainly not to knock CJ's numbers, he does a great job with them, but when I looked at them I noticed that Most Distinguished had a 30 point edge over that maiden field on his figures and Incriminate had a four point edge over the field in the Futurity.

If anyone remembers the maiden race at Saratoga those two horses came out of---they ran 1-2 throughout the entire running. Even though the pace in that race looked snappy and the final time looked well, I will presonally look to downgrade the effort of the top two finishers...and, especially if they are stretching out in distance of that kind of race shape in their previous race. As both horses were.

[the_fat_man]

Like you I wasn't particularly impressed by Incriminate's race.

Not only did they go 1-2/2-1 around the track but he was under ALOT of pressure.

Honestly, I didn't like him at all in the Futurity and I was primarily/solely interested in the 2nd race to see how a horse he beat by a head would perform.

Don't know about your theory that the horse wasn't bet. If you caught the action immediately after the picture was taken, as mentioned above, Levine and Gomez were hopped up a bit.

In any event, I think the horse ran a very nice race. Edgar did nothing wrong, and he was still run down by RE --even as he drifted out intimidating the winner in the stretch.

Not in your league when it comes to bloodlines either but RE also looks like a horse that would appreciate added distance. Don't know if I could say that about too many in the Futurity.

[BIG49010]

Watch the way this horse moves, he is not equal to the others, which sold for over a million. He is fast, but in my opinion, he won't last long. I saw the mother run at Arlington in grass sprints, and she broke her Maiden at Sportsman's, it's amazing she has put out these great babies. You just never know, that's what makes this such a great sport.

[DrugSalvastore]

when it comes to bloodlines either but RE also looks like a horse that would appreciate added distance. Don't know if I could say that about too many in the Futurity.

Real Estate honestly doesn't have a pedigree that suggests he will appreciate added distance.

His mother has had two other foals who made it to the races. They are absolute top class horses named Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade. Both of them are actually like need-the-lead "run-off" types.

* Madcap Escapade finisher her carrer 7-for-9 lifetime and was a Grade 1 winner. She collpased on the lead twice in her only two lifetime losses, one in the Kentucky Oaks, and the other in the Human Distaff on the undercard of the Giacomo Derby--in fact, her shocking collpase that day is one of the key reasons why some felt that rail was deep and the track wasn't all that kind to speed. Her lone lifetime win around two turns came at speed favoring Keeneland, where she won the Ashland by a rapidly diminishing margin over Ashado, who would storm by her in the KY Oaks next out.

* Dubai Escapade worked an eye-opening 10.20 seconds under-tack at the 2004 Barretts March 2-year-old in training sale. It was the best work of the sale in the first session. She sold to the Arabs for a Barretts March record $2,000,000 at that sale. The 2nd highest price horse in the sale only fetched $600,000. Many now assume that she brought that money, because she's kin to Madcap Escapade...however, ME had yet to win a Graded Stake race at the time of that sale. This filly was assumed to be an elite athlete with a ton of early speed, and being by stamina sire Awesome Again...she was obviously a very highly touted before ever racing. She's 6-for-7 lifetime on dirt. She's the #1 ranked filly sprinter right now. And her 115 Beyer earned in victory in the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga, is jointly the fastest sprint Beyer of the year.

So, Real Estate has the same mother as these two. They all have different fathers however. Real Estate is by High Yield, who's offspring win at an average distance of 6.9 furlongs. Madcap Escapade is by Hennessy, who's offspring win at an avg distance of 6.8 furlongs. Dubai Escpade is by Awesome Again, his offspring win at an avg distance of 7.4 furlongs.

Basically, it seems like Real Estate didn't inherit the runaway early speed of his half sisters, however, he does seem to have a lot of quality like them.

His female family is very speed oriented.

* Dam- Sassy Pants (this is the mother of Real Estate as well as ME, and DE) She won 8-for-22 lifetime, including three stake sprint wins. Amazingly, she sold for just $8,200 at a Janurary 2yo sale. What a bargain!

* 2nd dam- Special Portion- She ran six times, had 3 wins, and 2 seconds. Made $25K in earnings. Her avg win distance was 5.67 furlongs.

* 3rd dam- Generous Portion- She was a classy Southern Cal filly. She won the 1970 Del Mar Debutante at age two. She won the California Oaks at age three. Was 2nd in the Morvich at age four. And won the Golden Poppy stakes at age 5.

* 4th dam- Piece of Pie- was winless in three lifetime starts, but was kin to top filly Impressive Style, as well as the classy Fleet Treat and Chief Hawk Ear.


Don't get me wrong---Real Estate may go much further---I just don't see anything in the pedigree to suggest he should. He certainly has an expectional pedigree when it comes to speed and quality.

[the_fat_man]

Clearly, you're on top of the bloodline end.

And, just in case you've misunderstood, I'm not hyping RE as a super horse.

This was merely a statement, before the fact, as to the quality of the Futurity field. Outside of Zito's horse, I didn't think any of them could get 7F.

I look forward to the Champagne. I'll take RE over any of the Futurity field --excluding, possibly, Zito's horse.

[DrugSalvastore]

The Champagne field will certainly be much tougher than the Futurity field.

[ELA]

Bruce Levine is not the type of trainer to: a) have his two year olds cranked up and ready to rock and roll first time out, and, b) debut a two year old in stake.

Even if he and Blum were really high on this horse, it would have been a very aggressive move and a big jump to debut this colt in a stake. I don't know where they are going to next but I'll find out.

Eric