just my 2 cents

[tilson]

Aftre much talk about data bases i thought i would throw my 2 cents in here. I have no doubt data bases serve a purpose. After reflecting on this and considering past experiences i'de have to say the following: I don't see a lot of fun OR profit in trying to chip a 5 or 6% return on your money.
I have always found that my biggest scores have not come from a type of system play but rather from LOVING A 10 TO 1 shot or a 15 to 1 shot and getting a little lucky with the right "hook ups" with that horse in some type of exotic wager.
I also think data bases are very lacking in their inability to disect info while keeping it in context.
Data bases have zero understanding of things like lacked room....excellent body language....broke slow.
Lastly i have read a few comments like data bases aren't user friendly without a lot of work and effort invested in them....hey maybe someone should build a better mouse trap....i mean most horse players aren't exactly rocket scientist.
I also tend to think any method that is Over used by the public usealy presents poor value.
I guess there will come a day when the data base guys get to the wire before the pen and pencil guys,,,,but from what i have seen......until data bases improve in a big way that day is still at least several years.......maybe even decades away.

[John]

Ya ,your right .I remember reading once that Handicapping is 90% luck and 10% what you know.....

All kinds of stores ...Like my wife coming to the track and playing my kids birthday and hit a $80.00 exacta......I have a very small data base. I intend to keep it that way....One of racing great mystery to me is; and believe me I have asked this question to some top Jockeys as well as top trainers during my stay at Saratoga every year is: What makes a horse that has made the lead easy and in comfortable fractions, Quit in the stretch. The answer is always the same,"Darn if I know." ....If anybody can get me a computer program that will tell me my Horses will stay there today. I will pay anything for it !!! The closest I have come is TWO yr olds in there 1st , 2nd or 3rd race after showing early speed or fast workouts.

Good thread Tilson....You should be hearing from TOM on this one

[Larry Hamilton]

500 lbs of testimonials, facts, and evidence cannot overcome 1 oz of intuition.

[baravot]

Larry, what's that you say? Am I understanding you to be saying that intuition is more effective than anything?
Please clarify.

[Lefty]

Tilson, I'm not a DB guy but I think there is value in them
and am waiting for one that is at least somewhat user
friendly. The DB guys at HTR have made a believer of me although don't think I want to get involved with Access.
I have a prgm callled Procapper and its DB mate Wizard.
Procapper can be customized to setup speed/form ratios
good form or win or so many lgths you want in a paceline and even which paceline like best of last 3 or
last one etc. Quite versatile. Now DB part let you run
1000s of configurartions over results and it would give
out win pcts each config. for top horse, top 2, top3 and
top 4. Prob. it was limited to win pctg and did not give
ROI's. Before developers could add roi they for some odd
reason ran off and left us hanging. I came THAT close to
having user-friendly db. It used TSN .50 files too. Drat
the luck!

[Rick Ransom]

tilson,

Most databases do, in fact have the chart maker's comments in them. So you can search on key words like "dueled", "lugged", "tired", etc. and it does have some value. Michael Nunamaker looked at this in "Modern Impact Values" back in 1994 and there were some significant differences.

But even if your rating of a horse is entirely subjective, you could still put your rankings in a database and see how they did over time, and possibly combine them with some other, more conventional handicapping factors. I don't see how you could be worse off by using a database. However, I understand your reluctance to spend the considerable amount of time it takes to learn how to use them.

Once you have one set up, the cost of answering questions (called queries in database lingo) that you might think of becomes almost nothing. I don't think the database guys would say that you don't need to be creative in order to get the most out of it though. A database is actually more useful than handicapping software that spits out numbers, because you get to ask the questions. The usefulness of the output is directly related to the creativity of your questions.