Here Comes Dylan Thomas Vs Bernardini

[Stevie Belmont]

He will run in the Jockey Gold Cup.....Bernardini will finally get a challenge, or one would think. Dylan is class, the real deal. Should be a super race. Oh yea, Invasor is in there. I'm pumped. The two top 3 year olds in the world in the same race.

Story...

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=35391

I said Coolmore/Ballydolyle won't run from Bernardini, actually they are running to him. Finally a race to get excited about.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30825

[bigmack]

Dylan Thomas in the ID
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GBplyjyi0E

[Stevie Belmont]

Had to check and he still won....That was great.

[Cesario!]

Awesome news. I'm already getting excited.:jump:

[cj]

Seems to me they are using the JCGC to find out if it is worth it to bypass the BC Turf for the Classic. Pretty smart in my opinion.

[46zilzal]

He will run in the Jockey Gold Cup.....Bernardini will finally get a challenge, or one would think. Dylan is class, the real deal.

Seen far too many turf champs do little of note first time dirt. Helps that it is at a distance and at a "balanced" oval like the big sandy, but still the annals are littered with European greats that were making what move they could long after the winner had been decided.

It's not a ONE RUN race over here.

It is a smart move on the connections part however, albeit risky.

[bigmack]

European greats that were making what move they could long after the winner had been decided.
Like who 46?

[samyn on the green]

It has been done before. Go and Go won the Belmont off the plane in 1990 and Arcangues did Ok in the 1993 BC classic. Swain, Sakhee and Giants Causeway all ran winning races in defeat when shipping over.

My only concern with Dylan Thomas is that the conx may put the horse over the top form with the ship and the long taxing race first time dirt. If they are looking at the BC classic or BC turf the colt may have little left if he runs huge in the JCGC. It will take some horsemanship to get Dylan Thomas to do it again in four weeks at CD.

Looking forward to capping/betting/watching this exciting race at the championship track in a few weeks.

[46zilzal]

Like who 46?
I don't have access to my old Forms to single them out tonight. The European contingent has improved a lot at the transition however. I am thinking more in the earlier editions although I bet Ibn Bey a few years back.

[bigmack]

The European contingent has improved a lot at the transition however.
Dylan showed those heavy weight chicks who the boss was in The IDerb

What you know of Bern and Invasor given that Dylan wants to off pace with a stalk - how will the pace set-up for the trio?

[Tee]

Did he actually run the whole 1 1/2 in the Irish Derby? :)

What a trip!!!

I wasn't too terribly interested in betting horses back in 90 or 93, so I can't comment on Go and Go & Arcangues. I did have an opinion on both Swain and Giant's Causeway in their surface transition.

To me Dylan Thomas would be best served on the lawn, but as Craig mentioned this is a good place to find out if he is Classic bound. I guess that's the way his connections were pointing anyway?

Sakhee surprised me, Dylan Thomas may just do the same. I'll agree, it's gonna be a helluva race to watch, maybe even make a wager or two. Although I hardly ever bet when doing homework for the Breeders Cup.

[46zilzal]

What you know of Bern and Invasor given that Dylan wants to off pace with a stalk - how will the pace set-up for the trio?
Ask me in 48 hours when I see the past performances but I doubt that Dylan has not seen the type of pace he will see in this race.

[bigmack]

Did he actually run the whole 1 1/2 in the Irish Derby?
What a trip!!!

To me Dylan Thomas would be best served on the lawn
Come on Tee, sliding up the rail with a pile of nrg in the stretch - I hope you're not going in the direction of a 'dream trip' victory. That was a bonafide run.

I had thought that the BC Turf was the intended target - Have you an inside track to question his run on dirt?

[Tee]

Come on Tee, sliding up the rail with a pile of nrg in the stretch - I hope you're not going in the direction of a 'dream trip' victory. That was a bonafide run.

I had thought that the BC Turf was the intended target - Have you an inside track to question his run on dirt?

No, no, no don't get me wrong that was a bonafide run. When asked, he gave with a tremendous turn of foot & was drawing off. I was merely trying to make a "funny' that he was almost inside the fence the whole way.:)

http://breederscup.com/content.aspx?type=news&style=purple&section=bc&id=20207

Here's the paragraph by Steve Haskins,

"In a surprise move, Dylan Thomas, who was being pointed for the Breeders' Cup Classic – Powered by Dodge (gr. I), will now cross the Atlantic a month earlier to do battle with the Maktoum brothers' top guns in his first race on dirt."

I'd like to see his JCGC run before passing judgement, but he is by Danehill out of a Diesis mare. That obviously doesn't scream dirt & barely hints dirt(maybe 10%) But like I said in the earlier post, Sakhee surprised me. Dylan Thomas might just be that good or better?

[bigmack]

No, no, no don't get me wrong that was a bonafide run. When asked, he gave with a tremendous turn of foot & was drawing off.
Agreed T. As I'm new to imports coming in on a domestic affair- any sugs on how to size DT with Bern & Invasor?

In light of your ongoing project towards crushing the BC can all assume that you adopt a full disclosure policy in your findings prior to the days arrival?

[Tee]

Agreed T. As I'm new to imports coming in on a domestic affair- any sugs on how to size DT with Bern & Invasor?

In light of your ongoing project towards crushing the BC can all assume that you adopt a full disclosure policy in your findings prior to the days arrival?

Sizing up DT with Bern & Invasor? Other than seeing when he arrives, if & how he works, what he looks like on the track in the post parade - I haven't a clue. Could always look at and adjust his timeform ratings to make a comparison to the other's Beyer Speed Figures.

Full Disclosure?

Like anyone would listen. :) There's a story behind that, I'll leave it for another time.

[bigmack]

There's a story behind that, I'll leave it for another time.
I'll assume the story rakes in a direction that doesn't bode well in regards to your capping as we all have those sagas in our pocket.

I know of few that tangentially go off on jags within a thread as I, but the grip shown in your avatar is one I aspire towards.
Q: Most unusual grip by the most successful player?

[Tee]

I'll assume the story rakes in a direction that doesn't bode well in regards to your capping as we all have those sagas in our pocket.

There is always a few of the those stories, you are so correct.:) The one that came to mind last night was one that directly related to "full disclosure" :) & the Breeders Cup. To make a long story short, I was a big fan of Budroyale & subsequently Tiznow. Was at the local otb for the 2000 Cup & tried to give out the exacta in the Classic to a few of my fellow horse playing friends. Suffice to say it the advice didn't take hold. Hence the line "who would listen."

I know of few that tangentially go off on jags within a thread as I, but the grip shown in your avatar is one I aspire towards.
Q: Most unusual grip by the most successful player?

Wow, that is a good question & one that I don't pay attention to that much.
In his heyday how bout Lee Trevino? Moe Norman considered one of if not the best ball striker had a funky grip. There's always "The Grip" Ed Fiori. David Duval when playing his best golf did so with a rather strong grip, so has Fred Couples.

Who did you have in mind?

[bigmack]

In his heyday how bout Lee Trevino?
Who did you have in mind?
I have to defer to the depth of your knowledge on the sub though LeeT was one that came to mind. So to maintain the integrity of the thread I'll bow out on my dalliance of grips.

Interesting article linked below that includes:

O'Brien is indifferent to the fact that Bernardini, whose latest Grade One romp was a seven-length success in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, is on target for the same race. "We wouldn't go there expecting to win it, by any means," O'Brien said. "It would be a trial for him, a chance just to run a nice race and learn. We'd be throwing him in a the deep end, and no doubt he'll be shocked."

http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/article1619237.ece

[ponyplayerdotca]

Last year BORREGO ran a huge race to hammer several BC Classic bound horses in the JCGC. Problem is that he blew his wad doing so, and was nowhere in the BC Classic as a result.

Question: Knowing that happened last year to a horse, why wouldn't trainers alter their plans a little to save whatever "big race" their horse might have for the $5 million Classic, instead of the $1 million JCGC?

In other words, I don't see the value in tackling the top horses in the division in the JCGC for smaller returns if the BC Classic is the ultimate goal. You quite possibly could be using up your horse's top race one race too soon.

Just a thought.

[Tee]

Interesting article linked below that includes:

O'Brien is indifferent to the fact that Bernardini, whose latest Grade One romp was a seven-length success in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, is on target for the same race. "We wouldn't go there expecting to win it, by any means," O'Brien said. "It would be a trial for him, a chance just to run a nice race and learn. We'd be throwing him in a the deep end, and no doubt he'll be shocked."

http://sport.independent.co.uk/general/article1619237.ece

This is the portion of the article I found most interesting - By Chris McGrath,

"Unlike Giant's Causeway, foiled so narrowly by the monstrous Tiznow when the race was last staged there, Dylan Thomas has an unadulterated turf pedigree."

[bigmack]

This just in from DRF:

Trainer Aidan O'Brien has signaled his intention to run Dylan Thomas, winner of both the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, in the Breeders' Cup Classic by nominating him to Turfway Park's Kentucky Cup Classic.But O'Brien warned on Thursday that he has yet to decide between the 1 1 /8-mile Turfway Park Grade 2 event on Sept. 30 and Belmont Park's 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup on Oct. 7 as the Breeders' Cup Classic prep for Dylan Thomas, a 3-year-old son of Danehill.

"We want to give him a run in America on dirt to see how he handles what will be for him a new surface," O'Brien said. "We'll decide over the weekend on which race we'll use.

[Stevie Belmont]

The Jockey Gold Cup just might be hype...I know they would love to take a crack at Bernardini, but this might not be the time. Although he still would be big factor. They would have there reason to run in it.

Breeder's Cup is in Kentucky.......He will be right there. Run in the easier spot and be ready for the Classic. Horse would be cranked. Just think this is what they might do. One of the smartest operations in the world. Or they might really want to give the Gold Cup a shot with him and face Bernardini. It's up to them.

I would love to see. It would be great in the Breeder's Cup, but as these horses are with injuries, it might not happen then either. So the sooner the better.

[the_fat_man]

This will prove interesting, should DT run the JCGC.

The fact that he not only was behind a horse basically all the way around the track, but was also inside of a pack of horses, all but ensured that he DID ABSOLUTELY NO RUNNING until late.

If anyone thinks the effects of such a trip are minimal, try riding in the middle of a large pack of cyclists. See how much work you actually do.

Now, he did finish best of all, running down the 3 horses that had actually RUN during the race.

Prediction: B buries him.

DT finds himself on the dirt, with some pace, and unable to suck up. He might actually have to run in the race.

Yeah, run him, cause, after the race, beating (only) Invasor would not be much of an accomplishment for the conoisseurs of racing stock on this site.

[DrugSalvastore]

Dylan Thomas can not touch either Bernardini or Invasor.

There is absolutely nothing in his pedigree to suggest he will be as effective on dirt as he has been on turf.

[Stevie Belmont]

You are all wrong about Irish Derby. It was a great performance. You have know clue what you saw. The horse has a huge stride, and he had to check to boot. He should a whole new gear in the stretch gobbling up massive ground.

Comes back and wins a battle with the top mare in the world.....What more does this one have to prove he is all class. He is a marvelous looking speciman that can run.

The only question, and I agree would be the transition ot dirt. And I don't think it's totally out of the question. Some can run on anything.


This will prove interesting, should DT run the JCGC.

The fact that he not only was behind a horse basically all the way around the track, but was also inside of a pack of horses, all but ensured that he DID ABSOLUTELY NO RUNNING until late.

If anyone thinks the effects of such a trip are minimal, try riding in the middle of a large pack of cyclists. See how much work you actually do.

Now, he did finish best of all, running down the 3 horses that had actually RUN during the race.

Prediction: B buries him.

DT finds himself on the dirt, with some pace, and unable to suck up. He might actually have to run in the race.

Yeah, run him, cause, after the race, beating (only) Invasor would not be much of an accomplishment for the conoisseurs of racing stock on this site.

[the_fat_man]

You are all wrong about Irish Derby. It was a great performance. You have know clue what you saw. The horse has a huge stride, and he had to check to boot. He should a whole new gear in the stretch gobbling up massive ground.

Comes back and wins a battle with the top mare in the world.....What more does this one have to prove he is all class. He is a marvelous looking speciman that can run.

The only question, and I agree would be the transition ot dirt. And I don't think it's totally out of the question. Some can run on anything.

This, from someone who, among other things, LOVED FLOWER ALLEY in the Woodward.

I'm clueless, Steve; right :lol::lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Dylan Thomas is quite a beast. He has that "bearish" running style that Bernardini also exhibits. Seems to have a little more up-and-down motion than Bernardini (who often looks like he is running downhill). Bernardini looks to be more powerfully built in the rear as well. Nice stride length.


Although a prep, I believe Dylan Thomas will be pushed (although not to the point of meaningless late ground). I believe that a relatively slow break out of the gate is probable and that the key figures will be lengths ahead early, effectively taking Dylan Thomas out of winning position.



Fans of Invasor will welcome Dylan Thomas with open arms. Invasor is a big, strong horse. I do not believe that Sunriver darkens Invasor's form, who put away the pack handily.



Bernardini seems to be a great horse. He has grown accustomed to having his way early with this crop of three-year-olds. It will be a more interesting race with one or two speed horses that also want to control the pace.

[bigmack]

Well it's a done deal.

O'Brien confirmed that it's the JCGC on 10-7 with Valazquez and not the KCC on PolyT

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=66621&subsec=5

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41407000/gif/_41407123_horse_racing_generic_203.gif

[Stevie Belmont]

I also gave you Pomeroy the sameday.

I love people that knock a selection that fails.

It takes balls to put a horse up before the race with analysis then after.

Maybe the words were incorrect.... I just felt strongly about the race. and what I saw.

I'm sure you have some knowledge.

Debate is good.

[robert99]

Hope it is as good a race as anticipated here.
The entry surprised me as DT has never run a pace close to his form rating and is clearly best, so far, on good-firm turf. He already has had a hard season and has never run on dirt, with its stamina demands and kickback. The short run-in will not suit racing style either. Trainer comments indicate that they are just having a go but not too serious. Jockey booking may give some more clues as to intentions.

[the_fat_man]

Hope it is as good a race as anticipated here.
The entry surprised me as DT has never run a pace close to his form rating and is clearly best, so far, on good-firm turf. He already has had a hard season and has never run on dirt, with its stamina demands and kickback. The short run-in will not suit racing style either. Trainer comments indicate that they are just having a go but not too serious. Jockey booking may give some more clues as to intentions.

In keeping with (timely) Ryder Cup sentiment

let's make this a 'continental' thing

I full expect the UK/European contingent to SEND IT IN on this horse.

Extends yourselves, boys, it's not all about the turf.

[toetoe]

How about Hubert "Goforthe" Green?

Ugly prospect: BC on Polytrack. :Insert 'VOMIT' smilie here:

[robert99]

In keeping with (timely) Ryder Cup sentiment

let's make this a 'continental' thing

I full expect the UK/European contingent to SEND IT IN on this horse.

Extends yourselves, boys, it's not all about the turf.


TFM,

A nice thought but the European Union only unites for the Ryder Cup and that is only if we win. DT is wholly Irish owned, trained and has never won outside of Ireland, not even Boston. Only UK connection is that he is named after a famous Welshman, who was famous for the DTs.

[bigmack]

Article includes:

If Dylan Thomas does run big in the Gold Cup, many will feel that he should remain here and ship to Churchill Downs to prepare for the Classic. But that is not trainer Aidan O'Brien's style, and it is unlikely he would do that.And for good reason. We all know that Europeans are most effective right off the plane, and, if kept here, often regress in their second start.


http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=35468

[Stevie Belmont]

I started this...And I'll end this...

I will be 100% honest. I thought he could run a good one today. Not win maybe, but give a good showing...And it was an exciting prospect of having a chance at a great race....I think I saw Dylan just coming around the bend as I was leaving on the train...

Bernardini is like a fine wine....I was honored to be in the presence of greatness....He is eveything and then some....A Champion....

Good luck to any horse who tries him in the Cup....

[PaceAdvantage]

Dylan Thomas was a crap shoot. He just hated the dirt....you could see it in the head on shot....not saying he would have beaten Bernardini had he taken to the different surface, but it certainly was a valid excuse for his abysmal showing.

[WJ47]

It looked like Dylan Thomas got off to a poor start and it was all downhill from there. I think he must have hated the Belmont dirt. Maybe they'll run him in a good turf race next time and he can show his talent.

I've been pretty skeptical of Bernardini (largely because of my Barbaro fetish), but I'm starting to think that he may be a superhorse! Even though it was a tiny field, Bernardini really makes it look easy. He never seems to get the whip, yet just blows by the other horses when ready. I'm really eager for the Breeder's Cup Classic! It's going to be great to see him face Lava Man and Invasor. Bernardini is one nice 3 year old! It's very exciting to have such great horses running in the Classic this year.

[DrugSalvastore]

Dylan Thomas was a crap shoot. He just hated the dirt....you could see it in the head on shot....not saying he would have beaten Bernardini had he taken to the different surface, but it certainly was a valid excuse for his abysmal showing.

Yea---but....from a pedigree standpoint....it looked to be about 40/1 or much better that he could be as effective on dirt as he had been on turf---and even if, by some miracle, he could reproduce his turf form on dirt....was his turf form really as good as Bernardini's dirt form?

The old Euro mare Oujia Board, who Dylan Thomas photoed with last time out, has a 2nd dam named Ouija. The 2nd place finisher to Unbridled in the 90 Breeders Cup Classic was Ibn Bey, who's 2nd dam is also Ouija.

You would have to make Ouija Board at least 1/5 against Dylan Thomas on dirt--and had they shipped that old mare over to take on Bernardini...I think most people would have laughed about it. Yet, Dylan Thomas was being taken seriously by some people.

It's one of those rare situations where pedigree comes into play in Grade 1 races for 3-year-olds and up, with established form.

[Tom]

The charts shows that the ambulance passed DT in the stretch. They were honking the horn all around the turn! :lol:

[depalma13]

The charts shows that the ambulance passed DT in the stretch. They were honking the horn all around the turn! :lol:

Thanks, I spewed Pepsi all over my monitor. Next time make sure your posts come with a warning. LOL!

[the_fat_man]

I'm confused. Did anyone honestly give DT a shot?

I don't know much about the horse or his breeding

I have seen replays of his last 2 races, however:

one fully and the other the stretch run (where he beats the mare)

in the first case, he sucks up inside the entire race and runs in the stretch

in the second he's on the inside again (I assume he got another rail trip)

why am I impressed?

[bigmack]

why am I impressed?
Hey Tubs - What did you think of the run by English Channel?

[cj]

I'm confused. Did anyone honestly give DT a shot?

Well, he was 4 to 1, so obviously a lot of people did.

[PlanB]

I was so VerY sure your last, futuristic Pick had Dylan 5 lengths ahead of
Bernardini. ummm, could I be mistaken?

[cj]

I was so VerY sure your last, futuristic Pick had Dylan 5 lengths ahead of
Bernardini. ummm, could I be mistaken?

Yes, you are very mistaken.

His Turf rating was similar to Bernardini's dirt rating, but that is apples to oranges.

This is what I said on my site to someone that was entertaining Dylan Thomas the night before the race:

I've seen a few of this horse's races, and he doesn't look like a dirt horse to me. I won't bet a penny on that race, as he'll be second choice anyway and most likely underlaid.

[the_fat_man]

Well, he was 4 to 1, so obviously a lot of people did.

The Europeans speaking out?

[robert99]

Apart from the mystery as to why AOB did not first try the horse out at home he must have presumed that Dylan Thomas would put up some kind of competitive effort. (AOB is now reported to be considereing the same tactic with George Washington in BC). DT may not be at his best on dirt (obviously) but most such horses normally would be at least close up most of the race.

What caused the horse to not compete - no kickback - the colour of the track was not green?? Anyrate one example of the herd theory and "class horses battle it out - they know they are in a race" theory not exactly working out in reality.

Anyone with some believable explanations?

[Robert Fischer]

...
What caused the horse to not compete - no kickback - the colour of the track was not green?? Anyrate one example of the herd theory and "class horses battle it out - they know they are in a race" theory not exactly working out in reality.

Anyone with some believable explanations?


The pedigree handicappers were vehemently predicting a bad performance. I think their argument holds some weight. DrugSalvastore made a good point in this thread.
This race was in effect won by Bernardini very quickly. Prado initially let Wanderin Boy run for the first few strides. Bernardini proved that he is in fact a stylish runner, and did not take the bait. At that point (within the first furlong?), for all intents and purposes it was Bernardini's race. Prado got Wanderin Boy to relax on a slow lead and a conservative approach. Dylan Thomas didn't get a great break, but more importantly, Velazquez and DT held up and relaxed at the rear immediately. I don't have any problem attributing the sluggish start to the surface, although I didn't notice a lot of effort to get Dylan Thomas up with the pack. In a very short field, it isn't unheard of for a late runner to be a bit closer to the pace throughout. Even C. Vel. had Andromeda's Hero in a stalking position early. With Bernardini's classic start and Prado's wise decision to run a conservative pace, Dylan Thomas had no chance with a run from "the clouds". Aiden O'brien has a good animal, and the instructions were not to push the horse if he was out of contention. Thomas wasn't running for purse money.

[robert99]

Robert F,

Agree on the breeding issue but AOB did not seem to consider this aspect but wanted to try out DT at Belmont for confirming his choice of BC race. This is not much to do with a closing horse. DT made no attempt to close and got further and further out of camera shot. My question is why did DT not compete at any stage if the purpose was to find out his true dirt qualities. In UK not racing a horse on its merits is "illegal" and the horse might have been banned as a non-trier.

[RXB]

I'll give a very simple explanation: Aidan O'Brien made a mistake. He's a great trainer, but nobody's perfect, and he made an error in judgement. Dylan Thomas' pedigree is all grass, and why you would take on a horse like Bernardini in such a circumstance is beyond me.

[robert99]

Can I express my question in another way then?
What causes a turf bred GR1 winning horse to run on dirt as if the horse had never raced before?
By cause I mean some physical or mental condition.

[RXB]

Maybe the confirmation of their legs and feet don't allow them to get adequate traction on the dirt.

Maybe they can't withstand the pounding that a dirt surface applies to their legs and feet.

We see it all the time here. A young horse will start twice on dirt, lose by 20 lengths both times, then get switched to grass and BOOM! Win by 4.

Cigar was the opposite-- raced repeatedly without success on grass, finally switched back to dirt and the rest is history.

[robert99]

Maybe the confirmation of their legs and feet don't allow them to get adequate traction on the dirt.

Maybe they can't withstand the pounding that a dirt surface applies to their legs and feet.

We see it all the time here. A young horse will start twice on dirt, lose by 20 lengths both times, then get switched to grass and BOOM! Win by 4.

Cigar was the opposite-- raced repeatedly without success on grass, finally switched back to dirt and the rest is history.

RXB,

Thanks, that's the sort of thing I was getting at.
There was a theory that dirt horses had longer pasterns than turf horses but I am not sure as to how that works. Lack of traction with a turf "daisy cutter" action seems plausible as that (poor acceleration) appeared to happen long before any hard surface could have got to his legs. It is surprising that vets and breeding industry and not fathomed out the reasons as presumably AOB gets top advice on these matters.

[the_fat_man]

When I was a kid, growing up in the '60's, I watched quite a bit of baseball.

I noticed, even at a young age, that there were quite a few NON athletes in the Major Leagues. More often than not, they were PITCHERS, and in most cases they were FAT, or noticeably out of shape. Fielding a ground ball or running to first base exposed them as being RIDICULOUSLY non athletic. Of course, they were very sought after as they COULD PITCH.

The present day pitcher is generally in much better shape and usually fairly athletic.

What's my point?

Why are we going on and on and on about this horse?

Has he ever won a race where he DIDN'T SUCK UP INSIDE?

Certainly how he won his last 2.

Here's what we'll do for you. We'll put together a LARGE FIELD. Have a nice duel in the front. Make sure EVERY OTHER HORSE is OUTSIDE DT

make sure there's MIDDLE MOVE ACTION

then

have the rail open up for DT and he can put in a late run and look good

and all his fans will be happy again

although

to those who saw the JCGC (and watched his previous races objectively)

he'll remain the FAT, NON-Athletic pitcher
:lol:

TALK ABOUT A PLUG!!!!

Talk about being EMBARRASSED (BENT OVER --better) BIGTIME

[Humph]

he'll remain the FAT, NON-Athletic pitcher
:lol:





Let's turn things around: how do you think Bernardini would have fared had he run in The Irish Derby - a race that Dylan Thomas won - which is run over 12 furlongs on turf? Do you think such conditions would have brought the best out of Bernardini ?