Survival at the Big M

[OTM Al]

Registration for the survival contest at the Meadowlands is now open. First date of racing is the 29th. Always a fun contest. I'll be posting my daily picks here as long as I can survive

[Red Knave]

Yeah, me too.
We're such gluttons for punishment :bang:

[Red Knave]

Sir Gallant 04 Pending
Kaufman 06 Pending
Spring House 08 Pending

[GaryG]

4th Sir Gallant
6th Flight Captain
8th Old Forester

[OTM Al]

Old Forester 08 Pending
Itsacakewalk 06 Pending
Exploit Lad 04 Pending

RK- I like that Kaufman pick. Came real close to going there myself. I really kick myself, but I've been a sucker for Old Forrester in wayyyyyyyy to many races....and here he is again.

[Red Knave]

... I've been a sucker for Old Forrester in wayyyyyyyy to many races....I'm pretty sure he beat me out of a win last year so I had to go against him here.

:confused:

[GaryG]

Lot of people had Exit Left...

4th Wild Evasion
6th Da Dandelion
7th Bea Plus

[OTM Al]

What do you know, Old Forester wins!!! Probably because I didn't have real $ on him........Todays picks a bit chalky, but so it goes some days

Four Shore 06 Pending
Wild Evasion 04 Pending
Crystal Current 07 Pending

[Red Knave]

What do you know, Old Forester wins!!! Probably because I didn't have real $ on him........Nope, it's because I left him out. No need to thank me ( :D )

Mr. Carpe Diem 04 ( went against the logical chalk, I just don't trust Wild Evasion)
Pass This 06 ( picked the 2 entry, don't care which one goes )
Jenny Bean Girl 07

Subject to change without notice ;)

[OTM Al]

He certainly has the stink of the false favorite, but i just couldn't see any other way to go and I think he should at least get a placing. The one i like the most today is Four Shore. Thought he'd have a decent price too, but then I saw the morning line is pretty short on him.

[OTM Al]

Sneak through with two shows.....not much to be excited about in Tuesday's picks. Pretty vanilla

Aga Nona 03 Pending
Midris (IRE) 04 Pending
Princess Dee 09 Pending

[Red Knave]

Thru a Brick Wall 03
Midris (IRE) 04
Princess Dee 09

I wish they'd quit picking those turf sprints :confused:

[OTM Al]

Yeah. This was not any easy card. Its why I said I was going vanilla. Just took near favorites that looked ok. Could be one that wipes a lot of us out.

[Red Knave]

Possible Mambo 04
Flying Finish 07
Symphonic Sun 09

[OTM Al]

Festive Lights 09 Pending
Short Fuse Tara 07 Pending
Possible Mambo 04 Pending

Thought Festive Lights might be a good price horse but they are showing only 6-1 ML on him on the Meadowlands site vs 12-1 in DRF.......

It seems that if you choose part of an entry and the part you choose scratches, you get the other half of the entry, not the post-time fav. I think they did this before, but I couldn't find it in the rules. Gave me $20 more to my roll yesterday when Aga Nona scrateched and the favorite ended up 4th in a 6 horse field. Princess Dee would have bailed me out in the last anyway, but it was nice to have some extra vaulting me all the way up to 473rd or so.....

[Red Knave]

Thought Festive Lights might be a good price horse but they are showing only 6-1 ML on him on the Meadowlands site vs 12-1 in DRF.......You see something that I sure don't see.

It seems that if you choose part of an entry and the part you choose scratches, you get the other half of the entry, not the post-time fav. I think they did this before, but I couldn't find it in the rules. Gave me $20 more to my roll yesterday when Aga Nona scrateched and the favorite ended up 4th in a 6 horse field. Princess Dee would have bailed me out in the last anyway, but it was nice to have some extra vaulting me all the way up to 473rd or so.....
That saved my butt before too (at least for a while :) ). If it wasn't for Stat Man Steve and a cancelled card I would have gotten bumped out because I thought the same thing. In fact when I checked the results for that race last year I was informed that I was out of the game.
I got scratched from the same race yesterday too but I would have picked the chalk anyway :rolleyes: . One 2nd yesterday drops me to 199 from 87. :D

[OTM Al]

My angle on the Festive Lights race is this: He's the only one in the field making the biggest drop in all racing, MSW to MCL. Second, he's the only one to have run 2 turns before. His last effort was on turf, so throw it out. His second last, the 2 turn dirt, was at pretty much the distance today and the BSF is competitive with this field. Note too in that race at second call he was only 1 3/4 lengths off the lead, but was in 6th and the time was 47.4. Looks like there was a lot of dueling there. Just a little improvement on that race and he can beat this less than quality field. Like I said, this is a race I'm going for a price on and he looked eligible to be one that had a shot.

[OTM Al]

My picks for Thursday

Goin' to Battle 04 Pending
Sapid 06 Pending
Henry J C 07 Pending

That 4th race is a mess. I wouldn't bet that with someone else's money. Goin' To Battle ought to at least be ITM with this sad cast of characters. Sapid looks to be a heavy favorite in the 6th, so will take him so I can try for a little value with Henry J C in the 7th. His turf form looks pretty good in what should be a nice competitive race.

Festive Lights finished a fading 5th yesterday, but I still think he was worth the shot given that my other two picks seemed pretty tight, as the proved to be with a 1st and a 2nd. Do want to survive the whole meet, which is my first goal, but going to go with the strategy of if I can find two that look really strong in 2 legs, try a bit of a longer shot in the 3rd.

[Red Knave]

This should look familiar

Goin' to Battle 04
Sapid 06
Henry J C 07

[OTM Al]

Uh oh...... :)

[Red Knave]

Uh oh...... :)Let's get us my first 3 for 3 ;)

[Red Knave]

Oh, well. A 2nd counts ...

Tonites weird & wonderful piks

Gilded Gold 06
Tactical Brush 07
Gottcha Gold 08

[OTM Al]

Gilded Gold is showing as a scratch right now. He looked like the strongest possible pick, but I've switched to

On Board Again 08 Pending
Daisy for Rubiano 06 Pending
Tahoe Warrior 07 Pending

Going for prices a little more today. Daisy looks pretty good having a listed win at this distance. Tahoe Warrior isn't the strongest looking one of the lot, but I think he can at least hit the board, so going with him. My shot is On Board Again. Looks like its High Cotton's race to lose and this guy is doing 2 turns for the first time, but I just kept coming back to Bobby Frankel in the trainer line. He's sneaky and this horse looks sneaky quick.

[Red Knave]

Al, I had to post early yesterday. Scratched onto a winning favorite and got a good run from Gottcha Gold.

[Red Knave]

Brandon's Oboe 04 Pending
Angelonmyshoulder 06 Pending
Champagne Party 10 Pending

[OTM Al]

Me too. Going out to play with real $ today at long last. I'm going with

Free of Secrets 04 Pending
Babs Spirit 10 Pending
Pay Wright 06 Pending

[OTM Al]

Survived through the first week and sittin' uh...strong in 558th place!

[betchatoo]

I'm sitting 10 behind you, just ready to make my move :D

[Red Knave]

Man, I guess you guys envy me sitting at 411 :D ;)
Just scraped through Saturday with a single 3rd. :rolleyes:
10 minutes of 'cappin on the fly at my brother's place may have been the wrong thing to do. Okay, Thanksgiving is over for us Canucks so I'm going to bear down and win this thing in the final strides.

[Red Knave]

I'll probably miss the scratches tomorrow so I posted early.

Duke of London 04
Loquacious Lover 07
Ohbeegeewhyen 08

[OTM Al]

Going to work will do that......

Letter Perfect 04 Pending
Critical Acclaim 07 Pending
Lady Byar 08 Pending

[betchatoo]

Pre scratch picks

Afleet Tiger 07 Pending
Lady Raj 08 Pending
Taken Not Given 04 Pending

[Red Knave]

Jeez, every pick from the 3 of us is different. Interesting.

:confused:

[betchatoo]

Survived yesterday. Today's tries

Mutual Fund 07 Pending
Highland Lass 08 Pending
Blissful Ignorance 06 Pending

[OTM Al]

I'm out. At least my BC tickets showed up yesterday to make the day a bit brighter....Good luck guys

[Red Knave]

I'm out.....Good luck guys
Sorry to see you get bumped. Good luck at the BC!

Tonite:
Blissful Ignorance 06
Mutual Fund 07
Czarina's Girl 08

[Red Knave]

Travelling again today and tomorrow. I'll be in Vegas on Friday for 2 weeks.
Subject to change without notice ;) :
Jules for A. J. 05
Black Snake 07
Citi Analyst 09

[betchatoo]

My choices

Jules for A. J. 05 Pending
Luciano's Secret 09 Pending
Lycurgus 07 Pending

I don't get to go to Vegas till November 15

[betchatoo]

Saoirse Cat 05 Pending
Moetown 06 Pending
Stormy Jim 09 Pending

[Red Knave]

Tonite a the BigM :

Exploit's Kid 04
Ok This Way 06
Western Halo 09

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hi Guys! I'm still surviving as well. Some some familiar names on the list (if they are the same) as posters here. See LurkingBettor near the top (Lurking Good!. Overlay is just ahead of me. I'm sitting with 289th, at 33/10-7-3 $164.10. Just a couple dollars ahead of you, Red Knave. I may have to start looking for some prices soon, since need to double my bankroll if I'm going to close any ground on the leader.

Anyone remember what it took in prior years to win?

I imagine there are quite a few full-meet survivers, since we have 3 selections and only a 1-1/2 month meet. OTOH we don't get to choose our own 3 races, so that might offset a little bit.

Mine For Tonight - 10/14/06

Da Dandelion 06 Pending
American Freedom 09 Pending
Exploit's Kid 04 Pending

[betchatoo]

I know I've got to find some prices. But everytime I try they run like longshots :bang:

Tonight:
Exploit's Kid 04 Pending
Blues Highway 09 Pending
Ok This Way 06 Pending

[betchatoo]

Early meeting today: Today's tries

Starship Skywalker 07 Pending
Chalook 08 Pending
Pain and Glory 09 Pending

[Red Knave]

Thanks for the update Steve, good to know there's still a few PA'ers left.

Love this 9th race :rolleyes:

Cherokee Heat 07
Ivanovsky 08
Pain and Glory 09

[OTM Al]

Keep it going guys. Hope the slop tonight doesn't mess things up!

[Red Knave]

Titanius 06
Unleash the Cat 07
Secret Tribe 09

[betchatoo]

Zuni Gold 06 Pending
Childress 07 Pending
Secret Tribe 09 Pending

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hi Gang! I was out of town the last couple days visiting my Mom and her her husband, but came back home tonight. I posted and followed the board a little bit, but didn't I didn't put my contest selections here, usually I don't put them up, although I did this time prior to say Hi and say I was still alive in the contest and check on my fellow survivors.

Anyway, my job is selecting some of the tracks that appear in The Green Sheet (IL, KY, FL, IN), and I was working from my Mom's on her kitchen table in the mornings while I was there. I selected 4 tracks, including the Meadowlands card. (Not trying to sell people here tip sheet picks, most here on this forum understandably want to pick their own.) For the sheet, the company wants me to focus on winners, regardless of the prices.

I've nearly always just used my top selections in the contest, usually due to lack of time to go back and review 2nd & 3rd choices, etc. for prices that'll help more for the contest. Figured I might as well get in the contest, since I have to pick the card anyway.

Anyway, I went Totally Ape tonight (10/18) on the card and in the contest!

I hit all 3 contest races, paying $20.80, $11.40 & $11.60. They should have earned $72.60 toward my contest bankroll. Oh did I need that (ok, who couldn't?)

I gave out 3 other winners on top (all chalk) plus the entrymate(who ran) of chalky winner of the 3th. So I ended up with giving out 7 'winning' selections (6 of top, 1 other that paid a win price). All this while picking off my form on my Laptop from the kitchen table while my Mom and Jack were eating breakfast and going through their morning routine! LOL!

Plus, I drove home to Chicagoland in time to follow the card on YouBet for the contest races, and, ignoring my intent to stop betting anyting longer than a Pick 3, I had a $1 combo on contest/top picks in the last 4 races that won the Pick 4, and paid $1,267.30! Holy Cow! I used some 2nd & 3rd picks, but the top picks were the winners (at the prices above, and the $3.40 winner of the 8th). Hey, at last! I finally zigged when I really was supposed to zig, instead of zagging like oh so often! Had a very rough last couple years betting wise, so tonights winnings were some seriously needed encouragment.

Just had to share my good personal news with you guys! Hope all of you did fine too, or at least survived to get 'em good tomorrow night!

By the way, the TOP 2 in the contest got knocked out tonight, so that'd s big help to all the rest of us still in. Plus I ended up with a great night to close a bunch of badly needed ground.

Ah, but tomorrow is another day, and I, or any of us, could face the same fate as the two leaders did tonight. So I sure don't want to get overconfident, and may lay low again for a while. We all have to last through Nov. 11th in the hopes of winning, and anyting could happen.


From the Meadowlands Game Page for 10/18/2006:



StatMan Steve Game Page

You are still in the game!


Wins: 13 Places: 8 Show: 3 3 For 3: 0 Bankroll: $216.80

MY RECENT PICKS

DATE: 10/18/2006

Horse Race # Result Payout
Royal Good 09 Pending
Devil's Mark 06 Pending
Tax Considerations 07 Pending

[Red Knave]

Good work Steve.

I got dumped last night (I should have bought your sheet ;) ).

I'll be rooting for the PA group.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Sorry we lost you at MED last night, Red Knave.

Here's mine for tonight, but I know the one in the 5th is scratched. 5th & 7th scratched down to 5 horses, but lots of strange things happen in 5 horse fields. Yes, today is definitely a new day.

DATE: 10/19/2006 Past Performances

Horse Race # Result Payout
Star of Trieste 07 Pending
Rushin' Rahy 05 Pending
Kizzie's Gold 08 Pending

[betchatoo]

We were out all day yesterday and I never made my plays. Oh well, the way I was going (there were 310 people left and I was in 427th place), I wasn't exactly tearing up the place. Good luck to you Steve and any other PAers who are still in.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Oh No! Sorry that happend to you Betchatoo!

Last I saw, njcurveball is still in the game, may be the poster from here.

One other player that I know from another forum, don't know if he posts here, is clocker bob.

The standings hadn't been updated this morning, but the leader and the 5th contestant both got knocked out last night.

I just barely survived, as did several others, when the favorite in the 3rd contest race (the 8th) managed to last just long enough to hold the show spot. My other contest picks came up empty as well. Had a couple chalks win some of the other races, but that's only help to my handicapping psyche, not my bankroll.

Saturday was the middle day of the meet, the 17th day, of 33. Seems much longer for some reason. Long way to go yet. Clearly nothing anyone has accomplished yet is safe until the end. OK, a decent early spot looks nice. But the only time I truly want to lead is after the last race on the last day.

[njcurveball]

Thanks for the mention "StatMan". I am still surviving moving forward slowly but surely. I have seen a few people take the baseball strategy of "a bloop and a blast", but unfortunately the blast falls short and the bloop gets caught.

It definitely is a game of "survival", but they do give you a chance to pick early, just in case you forget or can't get on-line during the day.

I would dispute your "wish" of being in front after the last race. With the amount of people in the contest and the fact that every race is a mandatory play, it is pretty much assured multiple people will have the last winner.

The trick is to be in front AND have the last winner. Or even better, be in front and have a 3 for 3 day, like you did before.

Position seems to have changed some people's strategy, as you can tell by checking out the top 10 and seeing 4 or 5 of them eliminated already.

For those that don't understand that, the "game" adds up your winning tickets to your bankroll. Someone can make more than $70 in just one race and first place was around $350 after 16 days.

Making money betting across the board is the hardest thing in racing, yet many people still embrace this strategy since it lets them cash over half the time.

best of luck to all still in the game,
Jim

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hey Jim! Best Of Luck too!

Oh, I'm sure either of us would gladly take the lead and run it out to the end. Just as long a either myself, or yourself if not me, are ahead in the standings when the declare it Official. :)

[Steve 'StatMan']

I figure after the initial few days, about 6% of the contestants should drop out on an average day. Might be fewer as people play more conservative, or bigger as they try to play catch up.

I figure a good handicapper can get his selection in the money in the average race (not to pick his horse but not his spot) about 60% of the time (at least mine tend to do that.) So that'd be about 40% of the time the selection runs out. The odds of 3 losers and being eliminatined would be near 0.4 ^ 3 = 0.064, or 6.4%.

I'm estimating the chance of just surviving all 33 days, for a good handicapper, is somewhere around 0.4 ^ 33 = about 11%

With 308 left last I looked, I'm expecting about 18-20, give or take a few, to fall out on an average card. Fewer as the rest of the live entries dwindle.

[njcurveball]

Well congrats to all who survived today. The person selecting the races chose two races with 6 horse fields.

One of them scratched down to 4 horses and the other one scratched down to 3. Any Math Majors venture a gues on how many survived today? :lol:

They had a big field in the last race and 8 horses listed for the 2nd race. I like the contest but have to question who is picking the races. It would seem with over 300 people left after 17 days they are trying to have a lot of survivors. I doubt there would be more than 25 if this was Keeneland.

OK, the point is to pick a horse to finish in the money, so when there is a 3 horse race everyone survives. (In case you missed the sarcasm above.)

Good luck to all who are still surviving!
Jim

[Steve 'StatMan']

Sure was sad. 77 horses entered for card, scratched down to 46, 45 betting interests, before first post. Track listed as Fast, Turf Good.

Turns out the contest races scratched down to 8, 5 & 7 horses, from 13, 7 & 14.

Didn't know about the scratches - I'd entered my picks well in advance. 2 of my 3 scratched. But the favorites ran 2nd & 3rd, so most should stick another day, and my one survivor ran 3rd.

I checked their home page, and they had an article on a possible case of Equine Herpes at Monmouth, and they were going to put some restrictions on horses shipping from Monmouth, with Meadowlands being the only place they could ship, and I think they aren't allowed to stay over. Have to check the article again.

Something tells me they were being cautious with those that might have had contact with the possible case horse, until they know more. From what I recall, Equine Herpes is mighty nasty on horses.

We'll learn more from what happens to the entries for the next several days.

[Steve 'StatMan']

A thread in the General Racing section contains more, and a link to a DRF article:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31852

[njcurveball]

Thanks Steve,

I tried to edit my post but was not within the 10 minutes they give you. I had thought the 5th race was a contest race, too much handicapping the night before. ;-)

I checked my horses at home and saw that I had written about the wrong race.

Best of Luck,
Jim

[Steve 'StatMan']

Tonight, 10/25, is the free ride for those who make their selections. The potential Equine Herpes problem has caused serious problems.

The 8th race is a part of the contest, but has scratched down to just a match race. Yes, only 2 horses left.

Also in the contest, The 7th scratched down to 5 horses from 8. The 9th scratched from 9 to 7.

4 & 5 betting interests in 3 other races as well now, 1st, 2nd & 5th(6 horses w/an entry)

Good night to do the laundry, watch the World Series, work on Thursday and/or Friday cards, etc.

[Steve 'StatMan']

New leader going into tonight, the only one I've seen that had the 60/1 winner last night. Earned about $235.10 in bankroll last night, more than doubled prior bankroll, and likely moved player from near last of the 'live' players to first.

Basically, anything can, and might happen. That was definely the bloop and blast that player needed (although the blast race ran the earliest.)

Originally on Jim's bloop and a blast comment, I thought about making a Rodney-esque joke about my love life being more of a blast & then a bloop. Although frankly I'm more like still sitting on the bench, wondering when or if I'll get in another game. And, no, let's not talk about 'batting practice'.

Back to the contest - I hadn't thought about it lately, but yes, I guess this is the time when more and more will start swinging for the fences. After Sat. night, we'll be 2/3 done, with only 11 more cards left. Looks like time to think about stratgey, our own, and of those above and below us.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hi Neighbor!

25 njcurveball 19 15 12 1 $390.10
26 StatMan Steve 24 12 6 2 $386.70

239 live entries left. Clocker Bob didn't survive Saturday.

We're both about $105-$109 behind the current leader in the bankroll spot. But that can change quite a bit, even in one day/night. 11 cards left.

[njcurveball]

I put too much trust in Bravo on Saturday and perhaps Lezcano as well. I think I got a lil "drunk" on Surviving and took my mind off my original strategy.

The beauty of this game is that anyone above you can have MORE money, but still NOT beat you.

Is it EASY surviving? I would have bet hard that the two horses I picked to ensure my Survival on Saturday were pretty much a lock to have one finish in the money.

They BOTH ran 4th. This is a tough game! Good thing I got a 2nd in the other race.

Good luck Steve keep the winners rolling.

Jim

[Stevie Belmont]

Saturday was dead deep tiring drying out track. Speed suffered more then I have seen that night in a while.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Thanks Stevie & Jim! I too was surprised in some of the unexpected strugglers on that card. Glad to know I wasn't alone thinking something was unusual, though I hadn't gone back to try to figure out 'what & why'.

[Steve 'StatMan']

As of the 2nd race, they hadn't opened up the board's selections for viewing. Here's mine for today. So Swanky was 3rd in the 1st race at 3/5, giving me a whole $2.20 but does advance me to Wednesday. Races 3 to 7 yet to come.

So Swanky 01 Pending
Florida Gal 04 Pending
Hail Rene 07 Pending

[njcurveball]

Well from your post, I see I got $2.20 as well. ALL my horses were scratched today. Since I am at work, I have to simply sit back and hope for the best.

They DO let you see other peoples choices at night. Seems like during the day they don't know how to do this.

I am going to say I trust them, but it would seem MORE honest if they let you see the picks BEFORE the races were over.

There is a lot at stake here and since the entry is free, who knows who has how many friends sign up?

Good luck,
Jim

[Steve 'StatMan']

Quick update for anyone following this thread - Jim (njcurveball) and I have survived through Friday night. Jim was sitting in 16th going into tonight, I'm further back in 33rd. Will follow up again sometime after BC.

Keep Going Jim!

Steveo

[eclecticapper]

I'm surviving but not thriving (contest name "eclectic"); currently in 47th place with a week to go. I guess that makes me the worst of the surviving PAers.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hi Eclecticapper! You're doing great - 47th, about $5 behind me in 40th. We're not dead yet! We just need to make strong move late final turn and into the stretch run, like champion turfers!

I used some other than first choices last night, survived with some shares but no wins at prices to help. Switched a couple horses tonight as well, although race 2 my top pick, that i did keep is the 3/2 fave with 6 min. to post. on Sat. night.

DATE: 11/4/2006
Horse Race # Result Payout
Sovereign Kit (ARG) 02 Pending
Pinelands Baron 04 Pending
Mizzou Tiger 07 Pending

[Steve 'StatMan']

Looks like we all made through again tonight. But we're all running out of ground before the wire on Sat. night. Only 6 races left. More horses entered Fri night and likely Sat night.

Jim (njcurveball) is leading us know PA'ers, go Jim! in around 22nd but still needing another $100-ish in extra bankroll plus passing the other 21 ahead will not be easy.

Eclectic has passed me a bit, as I seem to have stalled when 'asked the big question'

No doubt we've selected well handicapping wise. But the NTRA spot is for the bankroll leader. Guess I should have searched sooner for some longer horses, and if I got knocked out, so be it.

Player 'tampabaydownsfla' has done quite well, has a near lock on the most wins prize of $500. I think they were 44 wins from 90 races going into tonight. Quite amazing, even though lots are heavy chalks. I realized about a week ago I wasn't going to catch them.

Personally, had a profitable Meadowlands meet, and probably my most successful 3-4 week period of my betting 'career', despite letting a huge one get away recently. So, I suppose I earned my own prize money 'through the windows' so that in itself is a nice reward.

Good luck the last 2 days guys! Good selecting!

Steveo

[njcurveball]

Good thoughts Steve,

The contest definitely favors the frontrunners with the lack of shippers and so many fields scratched down to 5 horses or less. The contest people who select the races obviously had a tough time with the weather and figuring out whether races would stay on the turf.

I went with Broome's loser instead of Tower of Pisa, so I am paying for that switch. Also made some minor mistakes to go along with that. My biggest came early in the meet when I was between Toka King and Exit Left. That was a BIG $70.60 mistake there!

But like Steve says, it was good to take real money out of that race ($1165 exacta), just missed the TRI. And it was a very good meet as well. Just wish they had less rain and more turf races.

The one good thing about the finish here is that the people on top will be playing it safe. So more blasts and less bloops!

Good luck with the last 6 races.

best to you,
Jim

[Steve 'StatMan']

$1165 exacta! HELLO! Way to go Jim!!!