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Stevie Belmont
09-14-2006, 09:50 PM
Might skip the big Jersey day Saturday. Connecs considering the Grade I Vosburgh. Man that would be tough. Why not? A decent effort or even better then that would be worth a shot at the BC Sprint if they feel he fits. This horse is in the best form of his life right now.

cj
09-15-2006, 08:28 AM
This horse was very impressive Haskell day, but he rode what I considered I very strong anti rail bias that day. I'd give him slightly less than zero shot in a race like the Vosburgh.

Stevie Belmont
09-15-2006, 09:53 AM
That was a big effort on a track that favored the outside all day. His last was impressive as well. Came with a late kick to power by the leader. And that group was not shabby at all. There is no doubt he is in top form. He is a solid sprinter. Winning the Vosburgh is a gigantic task. No doubt. A strong showing however is not out of the realm of possibilty. He was good last year. He is even better this year. It's a mute point if he runs tomorrow, but I would not be shocked if they try the Vosburgh.

point given
09-15-2006, 11:07 AM
That was a big effort on a track that favored the outside all day. His last was impressive as well. Came with a late kick to power by the leader. And that group was not shabby at all. There is no doubt he is in top form. He is a solid sprinter. Winning the Vosburgh is a gigantic task. No doubt. A strong showing however is not out of the realm of possibilty. He was good last year. He is even better this year. It's a mute point if he runs tomorrow, but I would not be shocked if they try the Vosburgh.

Not only was the monmouth track playing to the outside, it was playing to closers, and has been for some time. Its really screwed up my handicapping there. No doubt Cowboy is in good shape, but the Vosburgh ? That's another league and another track , very ambitious thinking .

Doc
09-15-2006, 11:29 AM
They should stick to ungraded or Gr. 3 races for this nice horse. He would be in way over his head in the Vosburgh. On a similar note, Perkins Jr. got a little ambitious with another J-bred, Joey P., sending him to Calder for the Gr. 2 Smile, and he hasn't rebounded too well - read recently where he needs throat surgery.

Stevie Belmont
09-15-2006, 02:07 PM
The plans for Joey P all along was to go out of state and try bigger races, hence the trainer change to Perkins from Costa. Ran strong in the Smile before giving way. Throat problems might have been there for awhile. Can't fault connecs for trying better races with a fast horse like him. Hopefully he returns to that former fast form he had.


The Vosburgh is salty race. It's an option. I might have to agree running there might not be the best choice, but the horse is better then people think. The ultimate goal as of now is the Defransis Dash in November. I certainly think he is better then a Grade III horse. At the same time I can see gobbling up the wins against those types, however if you have a horse that could earn some black type, go for it.

o_crunk
09-15-2006, 09:19 PM
it's ambitious and that's good and all....but that's no chump change for a statebred stakes race. the horse obviously loves monmouth. sounds like a no brainer to me. run him, take the check and put him on a bus to the meadowlands to go take some more money in a couple of weeks.

people were talking about joey p and the breeders cup in the same sentence. joey p is a damn good horse......at monmouth park. sometimes running these j-breds way above their class does some serious damage.

some of these j-breds who have cleared the allowance conditions wait all year to get back in against state competition....and i guess it's nice to give other j-breds a shot (particularly the other half of the entry in this race!), but he's not going to find an easier spot to win a 100k stakes than tomorrow.

Stevie Belmont
09-16-2006, 04:03 PM
One of the most impressive moves closing moves at 6 panels I Have seen in a long time. This guy is a beast. Three words for you....Breeder's Cup Sprint.

Don't give me any of that who who beat crap either...Showed a new deadly dimension today.

Doc
09-16-2006, 05:10 PM
Breeders' Cup Sprint? You've got to be joking! Whipping up on J-breds on a speed-favoring surface does not make this horse Grade 1 material. He's not even proven in Grade 2 or 3 competition yet, much less Grade 1. The company a horse keeps is just as important as the time. And sorry, kicking the crap out of Hey Chub and Brucker's Brother doesn't make him the new sprint king. Good thing you don't own this horse, Stevie Belmont, 'cause you'd have run him into the ground a long time ago.

Doc :ThmbDown:

cj
09-16-2006, 05:13 PM
Doc,

There aren't many G1 sprints, so plenty of horses aren't proven as sprinters as G1. That said, I still don't think he is better than Joey P. :)

Doc
09-16-2006, 05:36 PM
Who's the Cowboy ran once in G1 company, finishing 7th, beaten 10-1/2 lengths, in last year's DeFrancis Dash at Laurel.

Ten of his 11 lifetime wins have come at Monmouth, one came at the Meadowlands. He has never hit the board in a graded stakes, but he has beaten open foes at Monmouth.

I like this horse and his connections, but I think the BC Sprint is a stretch.

Stevie Belmont
09-16-2006, 08:21 PM
I don't really know how the horses effort is gauged by certain people, but it was visually awe inspiring. Bumped out of the gate. Entry was by design to see if this guy could come from off of it. Horse was out of it early, then uncorked a powerful rally around the bend and went by with ease. Opened up to win by 4 in 1:08.4. Horse just ran a big effort 12 days ago, carried 127 pounds. Fastest time of the meet at 6 furlongs. He made it look easy. This horse is in super form right, no doubt.


That Defrancis Dash last year was his first try in Graded Stakes. He was not as bad as the chart shows. He did not disgrace himself. That was last year. He is so much better this year it's not funny. Has blossomed as a 4 year old. I watched this horse from day one when he ran 2nd to Park Avenue Ball. Rolled next out. I knew at that time PAB was gonna be a good one. I could just see his stride and his manners. The Breeder's Cup Sprint is a huge task, but no doubt after that one today he could give any sprinter a run for thier money. The goal is the Dash again, things could change. What ever they choose, he won't embarass himself. He is rock solid.

Stevie Belmont
09-16-2006, 08:31 PM
Breeders' Cup Sprint? You've got to be joking! Whipping up on J-breds on a speed-favoring surface does not make this horse Grade 1 material. He's not even proven in Grade 2 or 3 competition yet, much less Grade 1. The company a horse keeps is just as important as the time. And sorry, kicking the crap out of Hey Chub and Brucker's Brother doesn't make him the new sprint king. Good thing you don't own this horse, Stevie Belmont, 'cause you'd have run him into the ground a long time ago.

Doc :ThmbDown:

I know more then most owners. And let me tell you this, I know a good horse when I see it.

o_crunk
09-17-2006, 11:31 AM
Opened up to win by 4 in 1:08.4. Horse just ran a big effort 12 days ago, carried 127 pounds. Fastest time of the meet at 6 furlongs. He made it look easy. This horse is in super form right, no doubt.

could be wrong about this, but didn't Henny Hughes run 108 flat in the Jersey Shore BC?

Who's the Cowboy in the BC Sprint is complete insanity. Get this horse outside the state of NJ and he's at best a fringe G3 contender. Henny Hughes would beat this horse by 20 lengths......even at Monmouth.

Stevie Belmont
09-17-2006, 02:56 PM
I have seen Henny up close. Iv'e posted on him and displayed a pic of him. Horse is an muscular freak. Any horse that goes against him will have his hands full. Extremely fast.

Often the case in BC Sprints you can see 21 and 43 with t he top speed horses in the world running. Cowboy showed if a scenario developed like that, he could in fact make an impact. Enough of this already.

The Defrancis Dash is the goal as of now, and I think that reasonable. The is some talk of the Vosburgh. They have had a plan, and I think they will stick with it. So everything else is mute at this point. They will do what they think is best.

Doc
09-17-2006, 03:11 PM
Henny Hughes (7/1): 22.23, :44.71, :56.22, 1:08.26 (track fast)

Who's the Cowboy (9/16): :21.68, :44.22, :56.22, 1:08.42 (track good)

I'd say the two performances were pretty similar, although I'd give the edge to Who's the Cowboy because the track was drying out after rain the day before.

Doc

Stevie Belmont
09-17-2006, 03:44 PM
Numbers mean absolutley nothing when comparing efforts. People basing two performances on abstarct figures are an injustice to both horses in that regard.


Bottom line?

Henny Hughes jogged around the track, never even took a breath

Who's The Cowboy worked a lot more, and was great in doing it.

Henny Hughes was simply magnificent that day winning in a jog.

Henny is tremendous. His modest trainer does not talk a big game, but if you listen to Kiarian, he knows he has a good one.


It's all in how they did it, and these two horse did it two totaly different ways.

o_crunk
09-17-2006, 09:43 PM
Numbers mean absolutley nothing when comparing efforts. People basing two performances on abstarct figures are an injustice to both horses in that regard.


Bottom line?

Henny Hughes jogged around the track, never even took a breath

Who's The Cowboy worked a lot more, and was great in doing it.

Henny Hughes was simply magnificent that day winning in a jog.

Henny is tremendous. His modest trainer does not talk a big game, but if you listen to Kiarian, he knows he has a good one.


It's all in how they did it, and these two horse did it two totaly different ways.

totally agree with this. bravo did not touch HH the entire trip and basically shut the horse down with a 1/16th left. people around me thought, myself included, that had the horse been asked, he could have had a shot at the track record on that day.

PaceAdvantage
09-18-2006, 12:46 AM
Numbers mean absolutley nothing when comparing efforts. People basing two performances on abstarct figures are an injustice to both horses in that regard.

Well, that's absolutely not true. Carefully crafted, objective numbers are far better at evaluating performance on the the track than mere subjective observation. And when you combine the two (quality, objective numbers + quality subjective observation), you have a very deadly weapon.

Perhaps on a case by case basis, subjective observation alone may win the day (as may be the case with your observations), but given enough comparisons over time, I would be willing to wager that quality objective numbers win the WAR....

The Hawk
09-18-2006, 08:48 AM
I agree with PA here, that you'll come up with a lot more winners using speed figures. I'd add that, if you had to choose one method or the other, since good speed figures are widely available, you will get much better value with good, objective visual analysis, even though your win percentage won't be as high. As pointed out, though, using both methods together will yield the best results.

Anyway, this comparison is silly to begin with, obviously, since the speed of the track was much different on the days in question.

Stevie Belmont
09-18-2006, 11:07 AM
I was actually talking about the fractions for each race.

Speed figs are far better then evaluating a performance? Thats a joke right? Who is that directed to? I don't have those problems. My eyes are my most important handicapping tool. The biggest part of the game is knowing what your seeing. Good horses stick out, there walk, there stride there entire physical apperance. It's all about class. Watching races you can see what each horse does and how they do it. Maybe some have a harder time with other with that. I don't.


Speed figs are tools. I think they can be very useful to the capper. I don't depend on them. No way. To many variables that have to be considered along with any number that is given.


Well, that's absolutely not true. Carefully crafted, objective numbers are far better at evaluating performance on the the track than mere subjective observation. And when you combine the two (quality, objective numbers + quality subjective observation), you have a very deadly weapon.

Perhaps on a case by case basis, subjective observation alone may win the day (as may be the case with your observations), but given enough comparisons over time, I would be willing to wager that quality objective numbers win the WAR....

PaceAdvantage
09-19-2006, 01:02 AM
When you get right down to it, opinions are what make horses race. Perhaps you are that rare, gifted individual with the time and patience to spot a winner with the naked eye. I'm not as blessed!

That doesn't mean we both can't win at the races, does it?

rastajenk
09-19-2006, 08:10 AM
Reading a defense of visual handicapping by stating there are "too many variables...to be considered" in figure 'capping is a most comical way to start the day. :D

PlanB
09-19-2006, 08:38 AM
"Carefully crafted, objective numbers are far better at evaluating performance on the the track than mere subjective observation. And when you combine the two (quality, objective numbers + quality subjective observation), you have a very deadly weapon."

I think most speed figs (including Beyers') are carefully crafted, but are they
predictive? I'm not sure, but I am sure that when you try to validate these
speed figs, they come up empty. My guess is that each speed fig maker
tries so hard to "up" his win stats that they sort of ignore the most basic rules
of inferential statistics: random sampling, estimates of sample variation, and
estimates of error/noise. At least that's my take on the speed figs I know of.

rastajenk
09-19-2006, 08:52 AM
No, they're not predictive, they're descriptive. That's all they've ever been. It's the user of the numbers that makes predictions, not the numbers themselves.

Stevie Belmont
09-19-2006, 11:26 AM
When you get right down to it, opinions are what make horses race. Perhaps you are that rare, gifted individual with the time and patience to spot a winner with the naked eye. I'm not as blessed!

That doesn't mean we both can't win at the races, does it?

Anybody can win if they know what their doing. If one is using speed figs, pace figs or whatever. It's the user that has to take that information and process it, then decide how they think they should use it. There are other things that have to be looked at before one can make a choice based on any type of number. Tools are great.

More often then not the best horse runs the best speed fig, they can go hand in hand.