FIRST BREAKDOWN ON WOODBINE'S NEW POLYTRACK?

[ponyplayerdotca]

FIRST BREAKDOWN ON WOODBINE'S NEW POLYTRACK?

I don't know if it's the first or not, but I'm saddened to say I witnessed a horse breakdown over Woodbine's new Polytrack surface last night.
In race 5, #6 FOXY MISS pulled up abruptly on the turn for home and broke her right front foreleg. You could see it dangling very noticeably as she hobbled to a stop.

I feel bad because she was a good horse. I don't know if she was euthanized, but the injury looked very bad. I suspect she was. No announcement was made (that I'm aware of).

The cynic in me says, "only 11 race dates on the new Polytrack so far, and there's already been a breakdown."

But, you could argue that the track surface had nothing to do with her misfortune if she was simply unsound.

At which point the cynic in me could then say, "well, if the track surface had nothing to do with her breakdown, why did they need to change from dirt to Polytrack?"

Anyway, one incident does not a conclusion make.

I just thought those interested in the North American evolution of Polytrack would want to know.

For the record, Woodbine Entertainment Group did not mention the incident on either their national TV broadcast (on the SCORE in Canada) or on their internet simulcast (that I heard). Please let me know if I missed this though.

[GMB@BP]

11 race days would be about 70 races on dirt right, 1 breakdown in 70 would be just over a percent.....

you need a whole season, and some comparison to make any determination.

[Niko]

Plus with all the painkillers used nowadays and lack of rest for some horses you're going to have some breakdowns no matter what. I wonder what the breakdown stats are by trainer at some tracks over the last couple years.

[classhandicapper]

I think it's going to take a long time to evaluate the pluses and minuses of polytrack. I agree with Steve Crist. I think the industry is rushing into this a bit. I see no downside to using the stuff at tracks like WO where weather is an issue, evaluating it for awhile, and then moving forward if the evidence is all favorable.

I am certain of one thing. If I owned/trained a top 3YO and was based in CA, I would ship out of there. I wouldn't want my horse prepping for the KY Derby on Polytrack in the Santa Anita Derby unless I was convinced there was no downside to that preparation and/or my ability to measure how well he was actually doing had I run him on dirt instead.

That may or may not be correct strategically, but I suspect at least some people are going have similar thoughts. The SA Derby and other CA preps could come up weaker than expected.

I would have no problem running a second stringer in one of those major preps trying to take advantage of a weak Grade 1 if several top 3YOs do decide to ship out. ;)

[the_fat_man]

I think it's going to take a long time to evaluate the pluses and minuses of polytrack. I agree with Steve Crist. I think the industry is rushing into this a bit. I see no downside to using the stuff at tracks like WO where weather is an issue, evaluating it for awhile, and then moving forward if the evidence is all favorable.

I am certain of one thing. If I owned/trained a top 3YO and was based in CA, I would ship out of there. I wouldn't want my horse prepping for the KY Derby on Polytrack in the Santa Anita Derby unless I was convinced there was no downside to that preparation and/or my ability to measure how well he was actually doing had I run him on dirt instead.

That may or may not be correct strategically, but I suspect at least some people are going have similar thoughts. The SA Derby and other CA preps could come up weaker than expected.

I would have no problem running a second stringer in one of those major preps trying to take advantage of a weak Grade 1 if several top 3YOs do decide to ship out. ;)

So, let me get this straight, if you were an owner, you'd baby your good horses and 'experiment' with your less accomplished horses?

I wonder, after witnessing YET ANOTHER Saratoga meet where countless 2 year olds were essentially BEATEN TO DEATH by their jocks --they do love that middle move-- if you were a horse owner, whether you'd feel fine about your poor horses getting slapped around but would expect better treatment for your higher quality animals?

For an example of over pushing/whipping

refer to just about any replay of a 2 year old race with a Pletcher/J Velazquez entry.

J Velazquez, handled by the Monkey, trying to ride (unsuccessfully) like the Monkey.

(Except when C Velasquez happens to be in the same race. Then, we know that Cornelio will be in even more of a hurry than John and John, 'by accident', does the right thing.)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm not prepared to make a conclusion about the cause except that multiple causes may be a possibility.
The horse was trained by Frank Passero, very fast workouts, 3 races, wraps and 1 1/2 months off proir to last race, .32 ROI for trainer angle for 2 yr old short layoff. On the maiden win the horse was 2 1/2 leader in the stretch and won "driving" by 6 1/2. Sounds like Foxy Miss was worked hard then came up wearing leg support, run at least 1 race with 21 days' rest.
But since the breakdown happened in the most common of areas, the last turn, anything is possible.
Does anyone know what the banking is at Woodbine now? I believe 25 is about all that is supposed toi be needed on artificial track.

[garyoz]

The horse was trained by Frank Passero,

Enough said...treat it like an outlier.

Any polytrack analysis should have a control variable for the trainer.

[classhandicapper]

So, let me get this straight, if you were an owner, you'd baby your good horses and 'experiment' with your less accomplished horses?

Not at all.

I wouldn't take unwarranted prepration risks with a horse I thought could win the KY Derby and incease his value massively. Too much downside.

However, I would eagerly run a medicore horse in a very weak Grade 1 field because he might earn a purse bigger than the horse could typcially win and increase his value via the phoney black type. Not much downside if he loses.

[46zilzal]

this track is not a pancea. Tell the breeder's to bring back in some stamina and bone. That's where the problem of t-bred fragility is, not on the race course.

Schedule some GRADED stakes on dirt (or poly) at two miles to see where the stamina genes come from as well.

[Tom]

this track is not a pancea. Tell the breeder's to bring back in some stamina and bone. That's where the problem of t-bred fragility is, not on the race course.

Schedule some GRADED stakes on dirt (or poly) at two miles to see where the stamina genes come from as well.

Today's horses would be hard pressed to get two miles in a VAN!:ThmbDown:

[bigmack]

For purposes of quintessence look at Turfway:

Sept 04-Apr 05 prior to PolyT: 24 deaths from injuries
Sept 05 - Spr 06 after PolyT: 3 deaths from injuries
2006 winter-spring meet: None

[PlanB]

Could the stats be nothing more than a normalized outcome randomly
in favor of PolyTrack? I ask because you bettors know randomness?

[Wiley]

Polytrack is not a cure all and as PlanB suggests, randomness results from the relatively small samples could be the norm. Half ton animals loading on spindly legs will always have some catastrophic results because you can cushion the down resistance all you want but at some point this load needs some resistance to push off of to continue in motion.

This reminds me of auto safety and requirements in cars. A German auto exec was asked about all of the latest features - this will get back on topic I promise - airbags, traction control, autolock brakes, etc. and how when you look at the statistics there are still a large number of people killed in auto accidents and his reply was if you really want to save lives put a big spike facing up to the driver off of the steering wheel and then people will drive safer, don't load it up with multiple safety features.
People will drive to the extreme of the condition, if everyone was driving Hummers there would still be people driving to the safety limits of the vehicle and accidents and deaths would still occur.

My comparison to Polytrack is will trainers now train their horses to the limits of the now safer surface? Harder workouts more often etc.? Pushing the horses to their safety limits? I might be way off here and I am not a trainer and have no experience training horses but just a thought.

My personal view is to eliminate 'all' drugs, Lasix, Bute, etc. with harsh penalities for violators and as others suggest breed more stamina into the North American stock through cross breeding with the more stamina influenced stock of Europe and Australia. Bone mass density increases in the breed is a direct way of helping decrease breakdowns as opposed to the more band aid attempted fix of Polytrak. The tracks could help out by offering more distance races to help spur breeders in this direction instead of the plethora of 5 F turf races at most tracks now.

[maxwell]

This is the second one for sure - possibly the third. Not a good start is it?

What is that stuff Mike Dickinson uses on his training track? ... tapeta?

I think it means "carpet" in Hindu or something.

[ponyplayerdotca]

posted by bigmack

"For purposes of quintessence look at Turfway:

Sept 04 - Apr 05 prior to PolyT: 24 deaths from injuries
Sept 05 - Apr 06 after PolyT: 3 deaths from injuries

2006 winter-spring meet: None"

==========

Hey bigmack,

What about earlier seasons at Turfway?
Perhaps the 24 from '04-'05 is unusually high?

Maybe not, but with just those two years to compare, it could be misleading.

Thanks. :ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

Maybe not, but with just those two years to compare, it could be misleading.

Fair pt. Can't find much on prev years.

http://www.turfway.com/library/PTStatistics.pdf#search=%22turfway%20park%20stats% 20of%20breakdowns%22
Polytrack: Pre-and post

http://www.turfway.com/library/PTReportCardBH.pdf#search=%22turfway%20park%20stat s%20of%20breakdowns%22
Bloodhorse Report Card on PolyT

[GMB@BP]

The best argument I have heard against polytrack is that, if proven to help horses recover and stay healthy, it is a band aid that will only push the real problem to the background, illegal drugs and overuse of pain medication.

I see absolutely no reason to try something new, the current system clearly is not working, ie arlignton and del mar this summer.