exotic players not using the "all" button and the "tough beat"

[1st time lasix]

For handicappers using overlays in the trifectas, superfectas and pick fours....they eventually experience a painful photo or close call that costs them thousands. Recently...I have had more than my share. Getting home a long shot in the 1st or 2nd spot only to get nipped in another spot. Being alive to a big pick 3 or 4 and just missing in one leg by a nose I have found that betting small increments....to cash the big signer .....requires a lot of patience and endurance sometimes. No bell goes off prior to the window trip that says this is the time to expand the ticket beyond the normal bankroll. It can really flush you with anger or drive you to drink thinking what "could" have been. To avoid getting out of control {staying within my parameters} or tapping out before the day is over I believe you should spend no more than 3-6% of your beginning bankroll on any one race. For a guy with about $700.....that is $21 to $42 per race. That money could be used in the win pool,... exacta, trifecta or superfecta pool. Wherever I percieve the overlay possibility and a sufficient payoff to cover my losers with a bonus. What do you guys do to gather yourself after the tough beat and do you think the money managent restraint I use is proper?

[Valuist]

IMO, the "all" button is for lazy bettors. If a bettor really has no idea, they probably should be passing the race.

If one doesn't have a big bankroll, I think the idea of betting a little to win a lot is definitely the way to go. You just have to realize you aren't going to be cashing all the time. With a small bankroll, I'd say the P3 is the best option. 3 races with only 1 takeout. THe P4 is a good bet also but does require more capital.

As for bad beats, everybody has them. I think we tend to remember the tough beats longer than the photos we win, unless they are big scores.

[skate]

it is kinda wrong to think that we can explain one type bet vs. another type bet, without at the very Least, talking about the ODDS.

the amount of the bet, you refer, is, for the most part the very same amount, but the odds, they differ almost always.

i tend to think that many players look for "a winner" fine, but they do not consider ODDS, they think they do... but,

i'm glad you brought this up.

AP, had a race sunday (?) 9/10.
i like 3 horses, 1,8,10.
i go with;
1,8,10
1,10
all
for $24

and;
1,10
1,10
all
for $12

comes ( by a nose at most) 2- 1 -10, tri pays $9000
this is not easy to talk about, but it is part of the game. i had reasons...

does not mater, you must be able to see the ODDS in order for this type bet to work.
i might add, don't hold back, obviously.

Now with the same type bet and a tri that pays maybe $230.00, forgetaboutit.

[cj]

I rarely use the all button. I only actually use it if it gives me a betting option I don't already have.

For example, if I am going to play a trifecta 1,2/1,2,3/all, why not just play the exacta? Same with P3s, just play the Daily Double if available and your all is on the end of the ticket.

The only times I can think to use all is if you play a trifecta with all in the middle, or a P3 with all in the middle leg. Otherwise, you are just betting a daily double or exacta with a higher takeout and hoping to get lucky.

I didn't include P4s or P6s, those are different animals.

[skate]

ya i can see what you say to be helpful.
i errored on the first post, should be
1,8,10
all
1,10.

but anyhow, it depends. an "all" is a reach, but also it simplifys the bet, to me this is very important.
you must consider the tellers, most are quick enough,b ut...oh my.
then the puter is even tougher. it is not like you just "place the bet in your mind" and bingo. when you want the bet quickly, it could take too too long.

i think it is too much of a fuss, IF you like two Big numbers and try to find another to go with your 2 or 3 numbers, simplicity is very important "if the odds are high enough"

an attempt at being too precise, can be costly, with big odds.

by all means, if you relly like your 2 horses, just bet the 2, fine.

the size of the odds makes the differance

my thought

[skate]

lets say, you have 2horses at 35/1 or close.

how do you play the race?

[twindouble]

lets say, you have 2horses at 35/1 or close.

how do you play the race?

With that kind of value, there's times in this life when you have to push all the buttons and that's a good time.


T.D.

[skate]

yes sir.

i gave a guy two horses one time, one was chalk (6/5) the other at 25/1.
he puts the chalk over the 25/1.
coarse it comes in 25/1 over the chalk, the guy hates ME. imagine that.

[twindouble]

yes sir.

i gave a guy two horses one time, one was chalk (6/5) the other at 25/1.
he puts the chalk over the 25/1.
coarse it comes in 25/1 over the chalk, the guy hates ME. imagine that.

Maybe he didn't like you to begin with, like I said I have no elusions when it comes to racing, good friends are hard to come by. Anyway, you didn't lose much.

[Stevie Belmont]

What you playing for short priced exactas?

The All button can be your best friend. If you use it right you can cash huge tickets. I find it a handicapping tool more then anything. No one should rely on it. There are times it's a good choice. And that is totaly up the player. I know how I use it. And it's a great option if you have the rest of the puzzle figured out. And often I do.


I rarely use the all button. I only actually use it if it gives me a betting option I don't already have.

For example, if I am going to play a trifecta 1,2/1,2,3/all, why not just play the exacta? Same with P3s, just play the Daily Double if available and your all is on the end of the ticket.

The only times I can think to use all is if you play a trifecta with all in the middle, or a P3 with all in the middle leg. Otherwise, you are just betting a daily double or exacta with a higher takeout and hoping to get lucky.

I didn't include P4s or P6s, those are different animals.

[schweitz]

Doesn't happen often but I will hit the "all" button in any leg that I don't have a good feel for but have the expectation of high odds winners in the other two. To me, there is no worse feeling than having a pick-3 that has two legs with winners paying between $20 to $30 each and not having the winner in the other leg. And there is no better feeling than having all three legs in a pick-3 like this.
If this is lazy--so be it. I'll own it. ;)

[Stevie Belmont]

People say alot of things they might not understand or know about. Is that the best person to take advice from on a particular subject?....of course not. You have to make that call yourself.

I know for a fact if i'm using the all button, it has nothing to do with laziness.



Doesn't happen often but I will hit the "all" button in any leg that I don't have a good feel for but have the expectation of high odds winners in the other two. To me, there is no worse feeling than having a pick-3 that has two legs with winners paying between $20 to $30 each and not having the winner in the other leg. And there is no better feeling than having all three legs in a pick-3 like this.
If this is lazy--so be it. I'll own it. ;)

[the_fat_man]

IMO, the "all" button is for lazy bettors. If a bettor really has no idea, they probably should be passing the race.


As for bad beats, everybody has them. I think we tend to remember the tough beats longer than the photos we win, unless they are big scores.

Yeah, EXACTLY!!!

What's it mean to whine about a 'tough beat' when you really don't have much of an opinion going into the race? Unless, of course, denial
of ASS luck (you know, that false sense of entitlement that everyone is walking around with these days) is considered a 'tough beat'

A 'tough beat' is when you actually have an opinion
your horse runs but
some unexpected circumstance causes you to lose the race

clicking ALL doesn't really qualify here

[schweitz]

I agree---for me it's hard to understand the mindset that says I should not play the pick-3 if I don't have a strong opinion in one of the legs or that I am relying on luck when using the "all" button or that it's poor wagering. Luck didn't get me the two longshots in the other two legs and the "all" button guarantees I get the payoff for the handicapping job I did on the other two races. It should be noted however that I use the all button in less than 5% of my pick-3's because the above situation doesn't come up that often----I wish it would come up more often. ;)

[twindouble]

I agree---for me it's hard to understand the mindset that says I should not play the pick-3 if I don't have a strong opinion in one of the legs or that I am relying on luck when using the "all" button or that it's poor wagering. Luck didn't get me the two longshots in the other two legs and the "all" button guarantees I get the payoff for the handicapping job I did on the other two races. It should be noted however that I use the all button in less than 5% of my pick-3's because the above situation doesn't come up that often----I wish it would come up more often. ;)

That's right, I'm more apt to use the all under those conditions in the pick 4, the 3 is like the tri, most cases not enough value unless you have those two long ones you mentioned. Then again there's times where I still have value but I don't feel I need to hit the all. kind of makes me feel good about my handicapping and it creates more confidence. Dam this is a great game, no wonder there's so many different opinions.

T.D.

[The Judge]

1996 Breeders Cup classic I tell all that would listen( I only tell people who ask me what I like or if I see something that I know my friends didn't pick-up on will I speak) that Alphabet Soup would win the classic and that Cigar would run third. I thought that Cigar was the best horse but that he had a hard and long campaign and I didn' think he would be at his best.

I played the trifecta: Alphabet Soup (singled in first) 12345 horses in second Cigar (singled in third) had this ticket many times. I was having a bad day but this was the race I was waiting for and had plenty of money to bet. I cashed for $0. No win on Alphabet Soup no Louis Quatorze for second. My friends are all running up to me to see how much I had won when I told them they looked as hurt as I felt. All I could do was watch as they cashed their tickest. They offered me money but I wouldn't accept it.

Yead CJ all in the middles sounds about right.

As far as bankroll percentage goes to determine your bet "it depends". If you have a sure source of re-newable income (a job)then that is your bankroll so long as you are taking care of buisness at home first and its not causing ANY trouble. If its causing trouble DON"T it too much pressure and that you don't need.

Many may disagree with the "bankroll" statement and you can see why.

[Light]

It should be obvious when to play the "all" button. Certainly those guys who played the BC ticket last fall learned an expensive lesson when one of the 3 out of 12 horses they left off the first leg of their $90k P6 ticket won.

I know a bettor who was alive to a potentially whopping Pk4 payout and had 5 of the 6 horses in the last leg. Of course the one he left out won for a $6000 payoff. These examples are endless. Once you've been bitten by not playing the "all" button,your education on this subject is complete.

[ryesteve]

It should be obvious when to play the "all" button. Certainly those guys who played the BC ticket last fall learned an expensive lesson when one of the 3 out of 12 horses they left off the first leg of their $90k P6 ticket won.

I know a bettor who was alive to a potentially whopping Pk4 payout and had 5 of the 6 horses in the last leg. Of course the one he left out won for a $6000 payoff. These examples are endless.
Ah, I get it... the "obvious" time to use the ALL button is when a horse you think has no shot, wins the final leg. :rolleyes:

[Valuist]

Here's the problem with the all button. A bettor thinks a race is chaotic, so they hit the "all" button. That's basically saying they don't like the favorites.....then why not just toss out the lower priced horses and just use the higher priced ones then and cut down the cost of the ticket? If you don't like the favorites anyways even if one of them wins, it will be an underlay. Gotta get paid well when you are correct.

[Valuist]

1996 Breeders Cup classic I tell all that would listen( I only tell people who ask me what I like or if I see something that I know my friends didn't pick-up on will I speak) that Alphabet Soup would win the classic and that Cigar would run third. I thought that Cigar was the best horse but that he had a hard and long campaign and I didn' think he would be at his best.

I played the trifecta: Alphabet Soup (singled in first) 12345 horses in second Cigar (singled in third) had this ticket many times. I was having a bad day but this was the race I was waiting for and had plenty of money to bet. I cashed for $0. No win on Alphabet Soup no Louis Quatorze for second. My friends are all running up to me to see how much I had won when I told them they looked as hurt as I felt. All I could do was watch as they cashed their tickest. They offered me money but I wouldn't accept it.

Yead CJ all in the middles sounds about right.

As far as bankroll percentage goes to determine your bet "it depends". If you have a sure source of re-newable income (a job)then that is your bankroll so long as you are taking care of buisness at home first and its not causing ANY trouble. If its causing trouble DON"T it too much pressure and that you don't need.

Many may disagree with the "bankroll" statement and you can see why.

I think the moral to this is pretty obvious: If you do have a strong opinion on a 25-1 shot (or whatever Alphabet Soup was), you're best off ignoring exotic wagers. And favorites in the third slot tend to produce underlaid trifecta payoffs anyways.

[1st time lasix]

Lots of opinion on the use of the "all" button....not sure I have any better feel for when to use it, but I appreciate the sincere input from fellow experienced players. I am grateful. I have a large dependable career income { and financially secure retirement} so racing is an enjoyable past time for me but that doesn't mean I don't want to win. On the contrary.....I am fiercely competetive, well educated and trying to play the game as well as humanly possible. Always striving to improve my handicapping and observation skills for selections and improve my ticket structure based on the odds proposition. I love the challenge and the complexity of the game. I use the win pool whenever I strongly like a 3-1 shot or higher to win when I think the odds should be lower .....that is now manditory for me for at least a saver..... but I am an exotic player 90% of the time trying to stay within a bankroll {20-40 per race}. I strickly use exactas when the tri or super pools have a greater takeout than average ...but I prefer tris, supers, pick 3's and pick 4's for the payouts. I don't mind splitting my 3 or 4 horse exotics with a couple of buddies at my normal simulcast venue. The bankroll limitation is merely to avoid having a really bad day that annoys me. If I lose every bet and drop 500-700 for four or five hours. I can shrug it off. More than that would be uncomfortible. Any sincere recommendation to improve my mindset is welcome.

[The Judge]

The favorite hitting a multi-bet ticket isn't always a underlay that's the devil of it all. If this were true then of course kick the favorites out instead of hitting the all button. We all know the stats on favorites running 1st 2nd or 3rd so we get our price horses in on the triple in the first two legs no favorite in the 3rd leg so what happens (we've already bucked the odds in the first two legs and got away with it) the favorite runs off had kills in the last leg.

We saw it but wouldn't bet it not even on a seperate $1 ticket. We wait hoping its a small pay out but we know it not going to be. BOOM $288, an overlay, with the favorite in the last leg how did this happen and why don't I have it.

Same in the trifecta.

[1st time lasix]

Fat Man....Talking about the true definition of "tough beat." Last week-end at Saratoga I really liked Second Of June to run a big race in the feature at 17-1. I had him to win of course....but I also had him singled in the pick 3 and pick 4. The other legs were in. Also keyed him in that specifi race with all the logical contenders. You guessed it ...he ran his heart out all the way around and finished 2nd to a 40-1 shot who I couldn't find even if they ran the race again. That is a tough beat!

[Valuist]

You can have a favorite in a P3 or P4 and still have an overlaid ticket. You can even have a favorite and a second choice and still get an overlay in a P3.

But a trifecta? Not in the third position. If you like two longshots or moderate price shots, you're better off playing an exacta than using the favorite in third. People love to box, and they feel a degree of safety using the favorite. So what happens? In the tri, the favorite is notoriously overbet in the 3rd slot but underbet in the 1st slot.

[Light]

Ah, I get it... the "obvious" time to use the ALL button is when a horse you think has no shot, wins the final leg. :rolleyes:

Uh..you don't get it. If someone has to use 5 out of 6 horses in a race,it means they have no clue of how the race will come together. If you have no clue how a race will form,you have no intelligent basis of who to leave out. The BC cup dudes left out the obvious lone speed in their first leg. They obviously had no clue how the race would set up.It should be "all" or nothing in these situations

[ryesteve]

If someone has to use 5 out of 6 horses in a race,it means they have no clue of how the race will come together.
No it doesn't... all it means is that there's one horse in that race that they really, really didn't like. A throwout winning isn't an argument for the ALL button.

And why is it all we ever hear are the stories where ALL button woulda coulda shoulda led to a nice score, instead of hearing stories about the 95% of these tickets that aren't cashed, where the ALL button would've totally blown up the losses?

[skate]

amazed at all the Wisdom and insite, terrific.

material for a book...

[rrpic6]

It should be obvious when to play the "all" button. Certainly those guys who played the BC ticket last fall learned an expensive lesson when one of the 3 out of 12 horses they left off the first leg of their $90k P6 ticket won.

I know a bettor who was alive to a potentially whopping Pk4 payout and had 5 of the 6 horses in the last leg. Of course the one he left out won for a $6000 payoff. These examples are endless. Once you've been bitten by not playing the "all" button,your education on this subject is complete.

Light:

Thanks for bringing up some bad memories. We thought when Rock Hard Ten was scratched that the bad karma of leaving him out of an earlier Pick 6 Pool would be erased. We all wanted to leave him out again, but thought about the ensuing riot if he won. His scratch solved that problem, leaving us the money we needed to make a winning ticket without wasting cash on RHT. All agreed that Intercontinental was a Miler with poor late pace figures to last another quarter mile. She showed us, with a Secratariet-like performance...each quarter mile run faster than the previous ones. Praying for a DQ to move up Taste of Paradise in the next leg added to more bad karma. Saint Liam wins for fun in the Classic, the consensus Best Bet of the Day from the panel, yet no balls to single him and use ALL/ALL in the first two legs. That woulda, coulda, shoulda been about 4 Million.

[rrpic6]

Fat Man....Talking about the true definition of "tough beat." Last week-end at Saratoga I really liked Second Of June to run a big race in the feature at 17-1. I had him to win of course....but I also had him singled in the pick 3 and pick 4. The other legs were in. Also keyed him in that specifi race with all the logical contenders. You guessed it ...he ran his heart out all the way around and finished 2nd to a 40-1 shot who I couldn't find even if they ran the race again. That is a tough beat!

The winner, Premium Tap, had dueled with possible Horse of the Year, Invasor in their previous race. Sun King closed furiously in that race to lose by a nose. No Invasors in that race so I play a tri with Premium Tap & Sun King on top and in 2nd with about 5 horses, 2nd of June included, in 3rd. Like the poster of the 96BC race, I don't split them in 1st and 3rd. A $5500 tri out the window. At least I played a small saver on the exacta to ease the pain.

[Light]

No it doesn't... all it means is that there's one horse in that race that they really, really didn't like.



I understand that. But are you trying to tell me that horses we really really don't like never win? We all know they do and more often than we like.Penny wise and pound foolish.

[ryesteve]

But are you trying to tell me that horses we really really don't like never win?
Of course they do, but unless one's method of tossing horses is flawed, the expectation on bets including such horses must be negative.

[Robert Fischer]

I handicap the race. (Only) If I believe a horse has a high enough probability to factor in my exotic , I include the animal.

[cj]

What you playing for short priced exactas?

The All button can be your best friend. If you use it right you can cash huge tickets. I find it a handicapping tool more then anything. No one should rely on it. There are times it's a good choice. And that is totaly up the player. I know how I use it. And it's a great option if you have the rest of the puzzle figured out. And often I do.

Using the ALL button means you have no opinion. For every huge ticket you cash, you eat into it when some low priced horse fills the ALL slot.

Here is a typical example from Mnr last night, 1st race:

4 horse wins at 3 to 1, pays 8.60. 3 horse runs second at 28-1. Favorite 6 horse, at 6 to 5, runs 3rd. If you loved the 3 and 6, and used the ALL button in the middle, great, that bet wasn't available that they run 1-3. You received $564.80 for your $2. If, however, you liked the 3 and 4, you had a few options. Let's say you played 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL for $2. That bet would have cost you $32. It would have returned the same $564.80. If you instead took the $32 and invested it in a $16 exacta box, you would have received the $161.80 exacta 8 times.

Here is a different example in the 7th. If you loved the 7-2 winner and 10-1 place horse, you could have wheeled in the tri, or bet the exacta box. This time, the favorite ran out, and a 9-1 horse ran 3rd. The $2 tri wheel would have cost $24, and returned $551.20. A $12 exacta box would have returned $517.20, or slightly less. Is this worth just hoping the favorite will run out?

There is no doubt you can catch big payoffs with the ALL button, but in the end, I don't think it provides any advantage, and just increases your takeout if you use it in the 3rd slot of a trifecta or Pick 3. We all know when you use the ALL button, the most likely outcome is a low priced horse. Like Valuist said, if you are using the ALL because you don't like a favorite, don't use him. Of course then it isn't an ALL, and you at least have some opinion.

The ALL button is like playing the lottery, you are just hoping to get lucky. Betting with no opinion isn't as bad as betting with a bad opinion, but it isn't far off. I stick to my belief that the only time to use it is to create a bet that isn't otherwise available. A 1-3 finish, or a Daily Double that isn't on the menu, such as races 2 and 4, use all in race 3.

I've already said none of this applies to P4s and P6s, which are a whole different game.

[melman]

cj, I respectfully disagee with you on the use of the all button. There was a recent thread with comments made by rrbauer which I agree with. I bet pic3's alot and find the all play one that makes sense at times. Your a former harness player so I will use this example. Leg one of the pic you have a nice solid 5-1 shot that you like and you single it. Leg two is a trot race for bad trotters who break often even trying to determine who the fav's will be can be a tough thing. Leg three has two horses I like and one of them is going to be a price horse. I see nothing wrong then with the following pic3 bet. Single--ALL--AB.

[schweitz]

There is definitely an acquired skill as to when to use the "all" button. I,for one, am happy that many don't see the value in using it in certain situations. This game is tough enough without trying to be perfect in your handicapping. I have read many times that if you can't show a positive roi on win bets that you shouldn't play exotics. I can tell you from my experience that is total BS.

[twindouble]

I agree with cj.

I think it's important to trust your handicapping and not get slack with the all. You get lazy and end up trying to buy the races. Horse racing isn't a lottery, if you fall into what they are promoting nowadays, the (casino mentality) your no longer a handicapper. This is just a general statement and needs to be said.

Good luck,

T.D.

[melman]

TD I think this needs to be said. The idea is to win CASH not prove you are a super great handicapper. If using the all helps get you to winning CASH then I am all for it. In the all example I used I really think it is far from being "lazy" but a solid way to maybe take down a huge score on a pic bet. I can understand the "but it's not handicapping" but all I want is the CASH not some title "handicapper". I go into the store they want to see my cash not me telling them I am a great handicapper. :jump: Just MHO.

[twindouble]

TD I think this needs to be said. The idea is to win CASH not prove you are a super great handicapper. If using the all helps get you to winning CASH then I am all for it. In the all example I used I really think it is far from being "lazy" but a solid way to maybe take down a huge score on a pic bet. I can understand the "but it's not handicapping" but all I want is the CASH not some title "handicapper". I go into the store they want to see my cash not me telling them I am a great handicapper. :jump: Just MHO.

melman, go back and read my comments, I've said right along there's times to use the all and I do. I haven't met any "super great handicappers" in my 46 years of playing the horses but I've met and associated with some dam good gamblers. There is a difference, So don't blow me off as some prima donna, there's do's and don't when it comes to gambling that's all I'm saying.

T.D.

[melman]

Then I misread your post TD sorry about that. I think one man's "do" is another mans "don't" . The idea that using the all means you have no opinion at all is incorrect IMHO. It means you think the race is "chaos" and you are not even sure of who the fav's will be. It means you think that race lends inself to a long priced winner just that your not sure which one. Example from the past Leg one winner pays $10.20 Leg two winner (the all button race) pays $64.80 Leg three winner pays $33.20. Pic3 pays $14,200.40. By using the all button on leg two a very nice score.

[ryesteve]

Example from the past Leg one winner pays $10.20 Leg two winner (the all button race) pays $64.80 Leg three winner pays $33.20. Pic3 pays $14,200.40. By using the all button on leg two a very nice score.
I'd still like to see equal time given to the vast majority of instance in which the ALL button snags a $6 winner, or even worse, the ticket is a loser and the ALL button ended up doubling the outlay...
These anecdotes are like trying to prove that Powerball is a wise investment because every so often someone wins $320 million on it.

[cj]

ryesteve,

Very well said. The only way to truly know is to keep records.

[melman]

Very poorly said IMHO on legs one and three you have a strong opinion and in the leg two "all" play your opinion is the race tends to a type that will produce a longshot winner just that your not sure which one. This type of race the fav often goes off at 3-1 or more. How does any of that have anything to do with a no brainer Powerball play???? And yes any serious player of pic's or any type bet should be keeping records that's a given.

[schweitz]

I'd still like to see equal time given to the vast majority of instance in which the ALL button snags a $6 winner, or even worse, the ticket is a loser and the ALL button ended up doubling the outlay...
These anecdotes are like trying to prove that Powerball is a wise investment because every so often someone wins $320 million on it.

I don't use the "all" button to snag a longshot (although that would be nice). I only use it in pick-3s and only when I have high expectations of getting a longshot or longshots in the other two legs. In this case it really doesn't matter if the "all" winner pays $6, it will still pay well AND I have not wasted my longshots. The losing ticket with an "all" does happen but it doesn't take many "boxcar" payoffs to cover a multitude of bad breaks, handicapping, karma or whatever. If you think this isn't handicapping or wise wagering you are of course entitled to your opinion but it has taken me many years to get to the point where I restrict my wagering only to pick-3s and I feel I know this wager as well as anyone. Different people have different comfort levels and ingrained ideas about how they supposed to handicap or wager. Some of the things I do now I would never have done 10yrs ago. I wouldn't have been comfortable with it or for that matter believed it would work in the long run but records don't lie. I'm not trying to tell anybody how to play, all I'm saying is I sometimes use the "all" button and it works for me. Believe it or don't. :)

[Light]

..... but unless one's method of tossing horses is flawed, the expectation on bets including such horses must be negative.

One's method of tossing horses is flawed greater than it normally is when you have to include half of the field,or more. An example:

You walk up to a handicapper who just hit a nice one and ask him who he likes in a 12 horse field so you can complete a pk3. He tells you 8 different horses. Do you feel confident about this guy's handicapping? Would you now take his advice about who to throw out? It's obvious he doesnt have a clue and will more likely get beat by one of the horses he throws out in this kind of a race, as opposed to a race where he feels strongly about 2 or 3 horses.(TVG handicappers have demonstrated this phenomenon many times in their pk4's)That handicapper that you just walked up to is yourself. You cant trust yourself in these situations. So again,its either "all" or pass.

[cj]

Very poorly said IMHO on legs one and three you have a strong opinion and in the leg two "all" play...

I already said this was one place I WOULD use the ALL button, as no other bet is available to take advantage of your opinion in legs 1 and 3.

[melman]

Yes you did in an earlier post on this same thread. Later on you make these strong statements. "Using the all button means you have no opinion" Just plain not true IMHO. Then you also said "The all button is like playing the lottery, you are just hoping to get lucky." Now which is it??? I firmly belive a pic3 bet in the manner I set out is hardly a "no opinion" or a "just hoping to get lucky". One post a mention that maybe a ALL use is OK then another with strong statements about no opinion and luck. BTW I can think of other times when the ALL button is a good play. Each to his own I guess but I hate to see the words betting like a lottery just hoping to get lucky being used on what I consider a sound play.

[ryesteve]

An example:

You walk up to a handicapper who just hit a nice one and ask him who he likes in a 12 horse field so you can complete a pk3. He tells you 8 different horses. Do you feel confident about this guy's handicapping? Would you now take his advice about who to throw out? It's obvious he doesnt have a clue
It's not obvious at all. For all you know, the guy has a tossout method that is nearly infallible. Your hypothetical offers no information as to how good or bad this guy's handicapping is.

[Stevie Belmont]

First use of the all button all weekend for me was in todays race 5 at Monmouth. Village Band was a near mortal lock going a mile in a quarter in an off the grass event. He went off 3/5....Win bet won't offer all that, but I never worry about odds, when a horse is a lock. I mean if it's 1-9 or 1-5 or 2-5 wins bets are pretty much not an option. Played a win bet here, and the all bet with him on top in the exacta, figuring the rest of the field will kill each other off in a speed duel. Hoping at least. Went 22 for the first quater going 1 1/4!! That in fact happened. 35-1 Bullet the Blue Sky clunked for the palce spot to key a 65 dollar exacta, play the win pay off. Even if the bomb did not clunk up, still would have made a profit with the win bet on the best horse. The sceanrio was right for the all button. No one would have used that lousy one. I did, and i'm happy about it. No one was beating the top pick, no one. That one should have gone off 1-5. The 3-5 was an overlay.

[Stevie Belmont]

Using the ALL button means you have no opinion. For every huge ticket you cash, you eat into it when some low priced horse fills the ALL slot.

Here is a typical example from Mnr last night, 1st race:

4 horse wins at 3 to 1, pays 8.60. 3 horse runs second at 28-1. Favorite 6 horse, at 6 to 5, runs 3rd. If you loved the 3 and 6, and used the ALL button in the middle, great, that bet wasn't available that they run 1-3. You received $564.80 for your $2. If, however, you liked the 3 and 4, you had a few options. Let's say you played 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL for $2. That bet would have cost you $32. It would have returned the same $564.80. If you instead took the $32 and invested it in a $16 exacta box, you would have received the $161.80 exacta 8 times.

Here is a different example in the 7th. If you loved the 7-2 winner and 10-1 place horse, you could have wheeled in the tri, or bet the exacta box. This time, the favorite ran out, and a 9-1 horse ran 3rd. The $2 tri wheel would have cost $24, and returned $551.20. A $12 exacta box would have returned $517.20, or slightly less. Is this worth just hoping the favorite will run out?

There is no doubt you can catch big payoffs with the ALL button, but in the end, I don't think it provides any advantage, and just increases your takeout if you use it in the 3rd slot of a trifecta or Pick 3. We all know when you use the ALL button, the most likely outcome is a low priced horse. Like Valuist said, if you are using the ALL because you don't like a favorite, don't use him. Of course then it isn't an ALL, and you at least have some opinion.

The ALL button is like playing the lottery, you are just hoping to get lucky. Betting with no opinion isn't as bad as betting with a bad opinion, but it isn't far off. I stick to my belief that the only time to use it is to create a bet that isn't otherwise available. A 1-3 finish, or a Daily Double that isn't on the menu, such as races 2 and 4, use all in race 3.

I've already said none of this applies to P4s and P6s, which are a whole different game.


How do you know who will like like what in a particular race when almost no two people see it the same?

Another thing, if you don't think luck is part of equation when playing the races, you have a slight misunderstanding of the game, because as players we can't control one aspect of what happens when the gate opens. There is an old saying...shit happens. I'd rather cash then be holding a loser like the hundreds of others out there.

I have an opinion, and it's usually a strong one. I don't play 20 tracks a day like some. I go for what I know.

I have made many winners,(Primarliy Grade I events) dropping a few hundred on the to winner is not luck, thats a choice based on class and a other variables I feel are important. And sometimes they go hand and hand. I want those two to meet.

[Light]

It's not obvious at all. For all you know, the guy has a tossout method that is nearly infallible.

And if my mother had balls,I wouldn't be talking with you. I mean how many guys have a system like that.

[ryesteve]

I mean how many guys have a system like that.
You're actually incredulous that people can pick losers with a high degree of confidence?? Some people base their whole game on eliminating non-contenders and spreading across the rest of the field.

[Light]

You're actually incredulous that people can pick losers with a high degree of confidence??

That's right. If someone is that good at predicting losers they can make a living as a bookie or at Betfair.

[twindouble]

That's right. If someone is that good at predicting losers they can make a living as a bookie or at Betfair.

Light, I don't think there's anything to argue about. To me when you come up with a couple horses that have real good value, you cover as many horses as your bankroll will allow. Let's face it, your not going get value like that unless you have the knowledge about those horses that the public is unaware of so from your stand point the rest of the field anything can happen. That's a betting opportunity you should take advantage of.

I don't think anyone here is saying lets take a shot with some long shots and use the all. The other thing is, if you think the investment is to high, there's other ways of capitalizing on those horses. One thing for sure if you elect not to play the super, and your two bombs run one two and it pays telephone numbers, you can't bitch later for not hitting the all, that's how this thread got started.

Players that think the all button is a ticket to success without having a solid opinion on the races will go broke, don't matter what gimmick or pick your playing. That's not saying if you have the money to burn you can't sustain a lot losses then get lucky and recover.


T.D.

[ryesteve]

That's right. If someone is that good at predicting losers they can make a living as a bookie or at Betfair.
I don't think Betfair has nearly enough traffic for guys like that.

So if you don't think someone can do a good job picking losers, you must also think it's impossible to do a good job picking winners as well... but I guess you're not alone, since there are 5 pages of arguing here about the ALL button.

[skate]

TD;
ya said it "all"

[twindouble]

TD;
ya said it "all"

Thanks skate. It never embarrassed me as a handicapper when I had two key horses with value win in the pick 3 or 4 and I'm alive with all. I take pride in the fact I took the picks and turned them into a DD. Even better when one key is in the last leg. Feels good to cap off the pick that way. No, I don't win all of them. Dam jock!:D

T.D.