Trip handicapping

[twindouble]

I read the Beyer TVG thread, I've never used use it but it sounds to me like Beyer thinks it could be the best thing around. All the negitive things he had to say, many here had brought up in the past.

Anyway, I try hard to watch the races but the video sucks in most cases ESP the off the wall shots we get. I was a better trip handicapper at the track, not that was my main method of picking horses, I think it's just an added edge if you are good at it. I was wondering if TVG did get their act together would I get a much better view of the races? Also I'd like to know what tracks are on their menu.


Thanks,

T.D.

[pjbc77]

Not sure if the angles are better than what you're talking about, but TVG shows the race replay shows for some of the main tracks (definitely NYRA, not sure which others) each morning, which is a nice way to get a view of all the previous day's races in 1/2 hour. If you have Tivo or a DVR it works great, because you watch it whenever you want, and rewind/pause different parts of the race.

[twindouble]

Not sure if the angles are better than what you're talking about, but TVG shows the race replay shows for some of the main tracks (definitely NYRA, not sure which others) each morning, which is a nice way to get a view of all the previous day's races in 1/2 hour. If you have Tivo or a DVR it works great, because you watch it whenever you want, and rewind/pause different parts of the race.

Most all my races are on Youbet, I use 125 zoom full screen but I can't get the same perception I had at the track and like I said I don't care for the shots I get. A lot things can happen on the back stretch and the turn, being up in the club house over looking the track offers a much better view of the race. Well at least at the smaller tracks.

[the_fat_man]

Most all my races are on Youbet, I use 125 zoom full screen but I can't get the same perception I had at the track and like I said I don't care for the shots I get. A lot things can happen on the back stretch and the turn, being up in the club house over looking the track offers a much better view of the race. Well at least at the smaller tracks.

Know what you mean. I have a great setup at the local tracks: I slip the security people some money and they allow me access to the ROOF.

I'm up there with my HIGH POWERED BINOCS, MY SUPER DUPER ZOOM VIDEO CAMERA (with audio) and MY GAMING quality PC

as they're running the race

I'm watching it THROUGH THE BINOCS

while taping with the video

and concurrently SPEAKING into a MIC connected to MY PC

where a VOICE to TEXT program is converting my speech to text

then

converting the text to comma delimitted format

inserting into a DATABASE

and doing calculations for speed, pace, trips, and bias

Oh Yeah, forgot to mention that I also have the gadget to measure wind speed/direction

I mean, 5 minutes after the race, before it's even OFFICIAL

I have all the data down

All my work is done ONSITE as well

never need to do work OFFSITE (at home)

now, of course, I also have the PROGRAM that

PICKS WINNERS for me

makes an ODDS line

and tells me how much to bet

Of course, I'm never without MY CIGAR, a HOT DOG, and a BEER

so it sometimes gets a bit crowded and messy on the roof


how we doing, Twin?

any more bases you might want to cover?

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Fat Man, if you haven't already done so, sign up for BrisBet, lock yourself in a closet, and watch all the replays and head-on replays you'd like till you pass out from the smell....

[twindouble]

Know what you mean. I have a great setup at the local tracks: I slip the security people some money and they allow me access to the ROOF.

I'm up there with my HIGH POWERED BINOCS, MY SUPER DUPER ZOOM VIDEO CAMERA (with audio) and MY GAMING quality PC

as they're running the race

I'm watching it THROUGH THE BINOCS

while taping with the video

and concurrently SPEAKING into a MIC connected to MY PC

where a VOICE to TEXT program is converting my speech to text

then

converting the text to comma delimitted format

inserting into a DATABASE

and doing calculations for speed, pace, trips, and bias

Oh Yeah, forgot to mention that I also have the gadget to measure wind speed/direction

I mean, 5 minutes after the race, before it's even OFFICIAL

I have all the data down

All my work is done ONSITE as well

never need to do work OFFSITE (at home)

now, of course, I also have the PROGRAM that

PICKS WINNERS for me

makes an ODDS line

and tells me how much to bet

Of course, I'm never without MY CIGAR, a HOT DOG, and a BEER

so it sometimes gets a bit crowded and messy on the roof


how we doing, Twin?

any more bases you might want to cover?


Hey skinny, all I do is read the racing form and watch the races and I'm making conversation without riding up everyone ass. Well I thought I was. :lol:

[GaryG]

TD...You and I have very similar methods. They have worked for years and are likely to keep working. With all of the numbers it is easy to lose sight of what you are really dealing with: horses and humans. Living creatures that have good and bad days just like we do. I get as much info from watching them pull up as during the races. Some are near exhaustion after the wire but the hyper aggressive trainer will have him back in next week. Good luck!

[the_fat_man]

TD...You and I have very similar methods. They have worked for years and are likely to keep working. With all of the numbers it is easy to lose sight of what you are really dealing with: horses and humans. Living creatures that have good and bad days just like we do. I get as much info from watching them pull up as during the races. Some are near exhaustion after the wire but the hyper aggressive trainer will have him back in next week. Good luck!

What the figure guys don't get (or choose to ignore)

is that their numbers are merely abstractions of events

as such, by definition, they're not comprehensive

or anywhere near as comprehensive as the (viewing of) the event

I read sometimes about improving Beyers or improving figures of whatever form

and I chuckle because such improvement, indicating readiness to win, is even more transparent in the replays ---you can actually see a horse 'improve' from race to race

but more importantly, you can see so much more that the figures don't capture

the downside of all this is that it's alot of work and to be done correctly one needs to cover all the races at one's track(s) of choice

this can get VERY BORING when you have no interest in certain races

[the_fat_man]

Hey Fat Man, if you haven't already done so, sign up for BrisBet, lock yourself in a closet, and watch all the replays and head-on replays you'd like till you pass out from the smell....

PA

how's the quality of the video, does it approach that of CalRacing or is it comparable to RaceReplays?

[Valuist]

What the figure guys don't get (or choose to ignore)

is that their numbers are merely abstractions of events

as such, by definition, they're not comprehensive

or anywhere near as comprehensive as the (viewing of) the event

I read sometimes about improving Beyers or improving figures of whatever form

and I chuckle because such improvement, indicating readiness to win, is even more transparent in the replays ---you can actually see a horse 'improve' from race to race

but more importantly, you can see so much more that the figures don't capture

the downside of all this is that it's alot of work and to be done correctly one needs to cover all the races at one's track(s) of choice

this can get VERY BORING when you have no interest in certain races

I would say that's very accurate. I've tried to come up w/a more efficient way of trip handicapping. While I still I try to get complete notes on the majority of horses for grass races, I scaled back dirt trips considerably. I try to make a visual judgement on the pace; is the field strung out heading into the far turn or are they bunched? Did speed hold together or completely collapse? What paths were the top finishers in for the race. I just found full trip notes too time consuming for many races. I believe trips are more significant in turf races so scaling back on the dirt really hasn't hurt and its more efficient.

[headhawg]

What the figure guys don't get (or choose to ignore)

is that their numbers are merely abstractions of events

as such, by definition, they're not comprehensive

or anywhere near as comprehensive as the (viewing of) the event
I'm not disputing that one may benefit from reviewing how a race was run visually, but doing so has its own potential problems. That is, you could be seeing something that's not there. Viewing a race is as subjective as figures are abstractions. Read some articles about eyewitness accounts to see what I mean.

For me, it's just quicker to interpret patterns of numbers than to examine each horse's races in the past performances via replays only to (probably) draw the same conclusions.

[1st time lasix]

---you can actually see a horse 'improve' from race to race

but more importantly, you can see so much more that the figures don't capture


this can get VERY BORING when you have no interest in certain races[/QUOTE] Still working a day job for another five years or so.....I can then see myself playing golf in the mornings and going to the oval in the afternoon at least three times a week watching the races myself [taking notes} Until then....as a weekend warrior....I have to rely on the form, my figs, the charts, my experience and my ticket structure. Certianly can't quit my career to play the ponies. Even if I could...I wouldn't. It would lose some of the novelty and excitement. Love to win...but part of it is my mental stimulation and entertainment.

[twindouble]

I would say that's very accurate. I've tried to come up w/a more efficient way of trip handicapping. While I still I try to get complete notes on the majority of horses for grass races, I scaled back dirt trips considerably. I try to make a visual judgement on the pace; is the field strung out heading into the far turn or are they bunched? Did speed hold together or completely collapse? What paths were the top finishers in for the race. I just found full trip notes too time consuming for many races. I believe trips are more significant in turf races so scaling back on the dirt really hasn't hurt and its more efficient.

Valuist, trip handicapping is just one factor in my handicapping, I don't go overboard with it, when the obvious things crop up I take note. For example the horse stumbled out of the gate, rushed up goes wide on the first turn, make another run on the back turn going wide and finishes off the board by 5 lengths, comes back against lesser company at 10-1 or more. Just one example, heck I don't take into account what little trouble others had in the race, most from my point of view had no shot to begin with and there was nothing significant about the moves they made. There's no science in volved to me anyway.

T.D.

[Valuist]

Yeah but the "obvious" things are what get picked up by the DRF chartcaller.

Trouble alone doesn't mean much. Its a solid effort against some adversity that's impressive. Maybe a stalker was in against a field with no speed, or a horse was in a 3 way duel and the other two tired badly while he lasted to run third. Maybe a horse runs 3rd beaten 2 lengths while on a dead rail all race. Those are the types of trips I'm interested in.

[classhandicapper]

the downside of all this is that it's alot of work and to be done correctly one needs to cover all the races at one's track(s) of choice this can get VERY BORING when you have no interest in certain races

Fat man,

I know what you are saying. Personally, I don't want my life to primarly be about sitting in front of a terminal/TV watching replays and playing horses all day long.

My solution to the problem has been to focus on stakes races around the country. It really doesn't take all that long to review all the major stakes, look at the PPs, replays, and charts etc.... Every once in awhile you have to check an individual horse that is climbing through the ranks or shipping in from a minor circuit in more detail. But if you more less follow one or two of the major circuits even casually (depending on the season), you can stay right on top of those up and comers with very little extra effort. It's actually fun.

I think being more comprehensive helps, but at a certain point dollars per hour and enjoying yourself have to come into the picture.

[classhandicapper]

Its a solid effort against some adversity that's impressive. Maybe a stalker was in against a field with no speed, or a horse was in a 3 way duel and the other two tired badly while he lasted to run third. Maybe a horse runs 3rd beaten 2 lengths while on a dead rail all race. Those are the types of trips I'm interested in.

Me too.

I love when I see a duel where one or more horses of reasonable quality quit badly and one survived it fairly well. It helps verifiy and quantify a big pace figure, especially when you see one of quitters come back to run well. Similarly, when you see a big pace number but the pace didn't visually look all that tough and everyone seemed to survive it, it helps you avoid numeric errors or other factors that may have been at work.

[Valuist]

Me too.

I love when I see a duel where one or more horses of reasonable quality quit badly and one survived it fairly well. It helps verifiy and quantify a big pace figure, especially when you see one of quitters come back to run well. Similarly, when you see a big pace number but the pace didn't visually look all that tough and everyone seemed to survive it, it helps you avoid numeric errors or other factors that may have been at work.

Especially on windy days. Those races down long straightaways like at Bel or miles at CD or AP can often be deceptive, pace wise.

[the_fat_man]

Fat man,

I know what you are saying. Personally, I don't want my life to primarly be about sitting in front of a terminal/TV watching replays and playing horses all day long.

My solution to the problem has been to focus on stakes races around the country. It really doesn't take all that long to review all the major stakes, look at the PPs, replays, and charts etc.... Every once in awhile you have to check an individual horse that is climbing through the ranks or shipping in from a minor circuit in more detail. But if you more less follow one or two of the major circuits even casually (depending on the season), you can stay right on top of those up and comers with very little extra effort. It's actually fun.

I think being more comprehensive helps, but at a certain point dollars per hour and enjoying yourself have to come into the picture.

I've noticed you've expressed this opinion previously and frankly I agree with you.

While I can watch any number of replays (repeatedly) of high quality races or races I have interest in, the actually act of doing it on a daily basis is mind numbing. It's not just watching the race for 'content' but all the preparation that needs to go into being in position to watch the race (replay).

A good deal of this can be automated ONCE the data is there. The problem, of course, is a good deal of the data comes from watching the race (in addition to that found in the charts).



I

[the_fat_man]

I'm not disputing that one may benefit from reviewing how a race was run visually, but doing so has its own potential problems. That is, you could be seeing something that's not there. Viewing a race is as subjective as figures are abstractions. Read some articles about eyewitness accounts to see what I mean.

For me, it's just quicker to interpret patterns of numbers than to examine each horse's races in the past performances via replays only to (probably) draw the same conclusions.

No doubt that the senses are subjective and thus flawed. However, based on comments of those proficient in the making of figures, quite a bit of art is incorporated within the science. Moreover, models by definition are incomplete.

And, of course, one needs to be accomplished at watching races to make good trip judgements just as one needs to be accomplished at making figures to make good figures. A rough definition of 'accomplished' would be
"good familiarity with the track and horses'.

In either case, we're not dealing with high level intellectual activity but rather GRUNT work.

[twindouble]

Yeah but the "obvious" things are what get picked up by the DRF chartcaller.

Trouble alone doesn't mean much. Its a solid effort against some adversity that's impressive. Maybe a stalker was in against a field with no speed, or a horse was in a 3 way duel and the other two tired badly while he lasted to run third. Maybe a horse runs 3rd beaten 2 lengths while on a dead rail all race. Those are the types of trips I'm interested in.

DRF doesn't pick up on everything that I see and their comments are far from the reality as to what went on. A clean race can make all the difference in the world. You just sighted another factor in handicaping, there's more.

[twindouble]

TD...You and I have very similar methods. They have worked for years and are likely to keep working. With all of the numbers it is easy to lose sight of what you are really dealing with: horses and humans. Living creatures that have good and bad days just like we do. I get as much info from watching them pull up as during the races. Some are near exhaustion after the wire but the hyper aggressive trainer will have him back in next week. Good luck!

Good point Gary, in bold. As to after the race observations, the shots we get are almost non existent, they key in on the winner right up the winners circle.


T.D.

[Tom]

No doubt that the senses are subjective and thus flawed. However, based on comments of those proficient in the making of figures, quite a bit of art is incorporated within the science. Moreover, models by definition are incomplete.

And, of course, one needs to be accomplished at watching races to make good trip judgements just as one needs to be accomplished at making figures to make good figures. A rough definition of 'accomplished' would be
"good familiarity with the track and horses'.

In either case, we're not dealing with high level intellectual activity but rather GRUNT work.

Spoken like somebody who truly has not a clue. The old my way is best.
Guess what ACE?
Talk is cheap.

Why do we keep this troll around here?

[46zilzal]

assisigning significance to trip problems is subjectively biased in the negative sense: often they are NOT as contributory to the outcome as the capper weighs them.

[classhandicapper]

assisigning significance to trip problems is subjectively biased in the negative sense: often they are NOT as contributory to the outcome as the capper weighs them.

Especially when the horse you bet on got the bad trip. Of course, we also tend to downgrade the bad trips of the horses we just beat by neck too. :lol:

[twindouble]

Not everything adds up to something (exact), racing can be very chaotic at times. All you can do is try your best to make sense of all the factors and attempt to get that edge that's needed to be a winner. Trip handicapping can produce, that edge but NOT all the time. Just like any other factor in handicapping. If I didn't think so based on my experience I wouldn't say so. It's not a figment of imagination an I have no elusions when it comes to racing.



T.D.

[Murph]

Talk is cheap.

Why do we keep this troll around here?I ask myself the same question about you, Tom. Your comment begs for an argument. That is the definition of "troll" IMO.

Seventeen thousand wisecracks and still counting.

Murph

[Tom]

Don't you have any kittens to go kill?

[Murph]

Don't you have any kittens to go kill?NO, Tom. In spite of your opinion, I am not a killer of animals unless I intend to eat them.

I simply disagree with your take of fat mans posts on trip handicapping. He has strong, valid opinions on this matter and he has failed to take your troll bait. You seem to take many comments made in the forums way too personal.

You have yet to contribute a positive comment to this thread. Care to try again?

Murph

[Tom]

You have yet to contribute a positive comment to this thread. Care to try again?

Murph

I was going to add to your great insights offered here....which post was that again?

[DrugSalvastore]

NO, Tom. In spite of your opinion, I am not a killer of animals unless I intend to eat them.

Do you eat ants and flies?

If so that is gross!

Sorry, just thought I'd ask you before KenWood did.

[DrugSalvastore]

I think it would be both interesting and fascinating if someone picked out a specific day....and we could get about 50 different posters to provide their own trip notes and analysis for the races run on that days card.

I think it would be fun to look at the different ways people go about
analyzing trips.

[Murph]

I was going to add to your great insights offered here....which post was that again?The only comments you have ever added to my postings are your wisecracks and bullcrap. Generally your comments have nothing to do with the topic of discussion. You do the same to others as well, just as you did in this thread.

You keep going along like you always have and I'll be happy to point it out to others when I feel you are out of line. I apologize if that offends you but you can only reap what you sow. You've been sowing alot of derision lately. I don't like it.

Murph

[DrugSalvastore]

You've been sowing alot of derision lately. I don't like it.

Dude!,

you actually make the mistake of not adding a space in between the a and the l, and instead choose to use the nonexistent word "alot" right before dropping the word derision on all of us!

Nice touch.

[Valuist]

I think it would be both interesting and fascinating if someone picked out a specific day....and we could get about 50 different posters to provide their own trip notes and analysis for the races run on that days card.

I think it would be fun to look at the different ways people go about
analyzing trips.

An interesting idea but I doubt you could get 20 people on here who take notes, let alone 50. In the digital world, we're viewed as dinosaurs. That's ok. The overlays aren't going away for us old-schoolers.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA

how's the quality of the video, does it approach that of CalRacing or is it comparable to RaceReplays?

I haven't seen CalRacing. In terms of web horse racing video, the only thing I have to compare it to is YouBet, and it's better than YouBet....BrisBet is the only site I'm aware of that offers a comprehensive video replay library for every track they cover for free (as long as you are a member...YouBet does not include it's replays as a basic feature), plus they have the head-ons (where available).