superfecta structure

[rolling]

Has anybody ever heard the theory that if the key horse is a closer then put the speed horse under and if the key horse is the speed put the closer under.

[turfeyejoe]

yes, I've heard this one, and it makes sense. For example, you rarely see two speed horses run 1-2 all the way around the track. At least one of the speeds always quits and something comes from the back to pick up the pieces.

[JPinMaryland]

There seems to be some sort of wisdom to it. A few months ago someone pointed out the derby finishers of the last few years and much of the time it seems to alternate in terms of closer/front runner.

Lessee this years derby: Barbaro E/P, Jazil C, what is/was Bluegrass Cat??

Still hard to put together an exotic ticket using just this, but it seems to have some truth to it.

[betovernetcapper]

The first person I heard espouse this was Sartin in a booklet called Finding the Place Horse. Horses with alternate running styles do seem to pop up 1-2 a lot on tracks with a normal bias. When a track is strongly biased, horses seem to win/place with the same running style like two speed horses running 1-2 from gate to wire or the win & place horses each coming from the clouds.

Win/Place probability might also be gleaned from energy distribution. Richrosa is doing some exciting work in this area. Maybe he can be persuaded to offer a comment.

Dick Mitchel had a similar strategy about the trifecta that went Contenders with ALL with Contenders. This kind of play can offer some value when the contenders are short priced because a large percentage of tri tickets have the short priced horses running 1/2-1/2-X. When they run 1/2-X-1/2 the payoffs can be generous. :)

[twindouble]

Has anybody ever heard the theory that if the key horse is a closer then put the speed horse under and if the key horse is the speed put the closer under.

Depends on the type of closer your talking about, for example it's not smart to use a deep closer just on top, to many things can happen in the race. Getting fooled by a slower than usual pace, getting caught to wide, not getting an opening in the stretch run. Just plain getting in trouble findind position while making that closing run. I never bet big on deep closers.

A stalker is a better bet to put on top, clear running makes a big difference in a race.

T.D.

[richrosa]

Many others have written about this before me, but we at HandicappingOS have taken the Sartin concept of energy distribution and applied it to a model.

For example, we break out the percent early calculation (also knows as Med%, or E/L), and model it for a track/distance/surface for all horses that win/place/show. When we look at a race we apply the E/L calculation for all of the entrants against the model of what we know wins/places/shows at that track/distance/surface. If a horse doesn't fit the model, in that it doesn't win enough when it carries that E/L figure, we can eliminate from that position.

The second thing that we do, is apply the E/L concept to the match-up. When we see a lone contender on the opposite side of the E/L graph to the other entrants, we call this the "CounterEnergy" horse. This could be lone speed in a field of pressers and closers, or the lone closer in a field of speed. Amazingly, these horses make superb place bets, or bottom keys in exactas. This of course needs to fit in with the model you keep at the track/distance/surface and has to fit a loose profile of being competitive. This is not a new concept, we just add modeling to it. In HOS these models are created for you automatically.

One of our subscribers recently boxed a $1 tri for over $1500 at MNR by applying the E/L modeling an boxeing the 3 horses that fit the model. If anyone wants me to send them the printouts to this race, please PM me.