One for the non-database guys

[Rick Ransom]

OK, here's one that can't be checked on a database. Over the years my "between-the-ears" database tells me that when two horses are running together at the head of the stretch, the one on the outside usually wins. What do you guys think, especially those of you who may have watched thousands of video replays?

I realize that even if this is true, there may be no way to predict that one horse is more likely to be in this position than another. I think that the guy on the outside may have been more likely to be stalking the leader earlier in the race, but I can't prove it. The inside horse could also be intimidated by the rail. It could have something to do with why E/P types usually do better than E's.

C'mon, lets hear from you anti-technology types! No, not you Mr. Unabomber!

[Que]

Rick,

Based on your criteria, "running together at the head of the stretch," I would agree that the horse on the outside will usually win. The outside horse will often have the momentum going into the stretch, otherwise he'd be behind the other horse. Also, not too many horses that win on a lone lead will do so off the rail. However, I not sure you can place too much emphasis on this observation--unless they allow us to start making bets at the top of the stretch. I also don't think this means that EP horses are necessarily superior to E horses; maybe, it just takes a better quality horse to win as a stalker than a horse whose only win was on the lead for the whole trip.

BTW. I could check this out using Thorograph's path ratings... or maybe not.

Que.

[Lefty]

Seems to be the case in my observations. Recently had
a longshot no. 9 running dn stretch with the 6. Outside
horse won; but yikes, my 9 was on inside and 6 was on
outside. Go figure.

[Rick Ransom]

Que,

The bookies in Vegas used to take proposition bets on who would finish last (which turns out to be more difficult than picking the winner), so who knows. Awfully difficult to stop time so that people can get their bets down, though. I think I'd take a prop bet that the outside horse, whoever he is, would win though. It's interesting that, so far, people seem to agree on this. I just mentioned it as an example of things people know, or think they know, without actually ever studying it.