PDA

View Full Version : A Random Walk Down HORSE STREET - Part 1 of ?


PaceAdvantage
09-07-2006, 10:25 AM
Much like I felt when I first opened The Horse Street Handicapper a number of years ago, I don't know where to begin, so I will just let the thoughts flow, with the advance warning that there will probably be a few "parts" to this review.

The Horse Street Handicapper comes with a reputation of being difficult to master, in part because of the technology of the software itself, but also because of the man behind the software, Dave Schwartz.

Dave's been around this game a long time now, and many of you knew him way back when with his first product, ThoroBrain (probably the best name ever given to a piece of handicapping software). The subsequent newsletter, BrainWaves, of which I was an avid reader, was also far ahead of its time back in the early to mid 90s.

Enough of the history lesson. Suffice it to say, Dave Schwartz knows his stuff when it comes to horse racing, handicapping, the mathematics surrounding the game, and what it takes to create a complete, computer-based handicapping tool.

That's where The Horse Street Handicapper (HSH) comes in....

Although Dave has been gracious enough to send me various copies of HSH over the years for review, I've never been able to devote the kind of time necessary to learning enough about the software to feel I had the RIGHT to WRITE a review worthy of publishing. This is partly my fault, and partly Dave's, as the lack of any substantial WRITTEN documentation about HSH is probably its biggest downfall in the eyes of a new user. It makes the task of learning HSH that much more daunting when you have no reference to fall back upon.

Thankfully, this is one of the few negatives I can report about the product. I have been using and learning version 3.11 of the software since early June, and three months later, I am comfortable enough to report that I think Dave may be onto something here (possibly the understatement of the year). I should add that to Dave's credit, he has produced a wonderful collection of informational video and audio CDs which are a must have if you want to master the different aspects of this all-encompassing handicapping program.

What Dave Schwartz has created with HSH is the ultimate handicapper's tool box. HSH is indeed a laboratory of sorts, where you can reach for a myriad of elements, mix them together, and create any number of monsters you can then use to attack the races in a profitable manner.

You want to try your hand at artificial intelligence? HSH has it (Swarms).

You want pace analysis? HSH incorporates a pace handicapping module of which I have only scratched the surface.

You want to model? HSH's dynamic filters and Pickmaster are two of the more robust modeling systems I have ever used....I'll let a post from this very website decribe the Pickmaster tool:

It is Christmas and Dave Schwartz gave his HSH Pro users a Christmas present. It is called PickMaster. What it does is use a dynamic filter to go into the database and pull out races that meet the criteria of today’s race that is being handicapped. We do have control of the criteria. Then PickMaster goes through those races and calculates the statistics of impact values, pool impact values, wins, $Net, etc. This is pretty standard so far, now comes the good part. PickMaster will look at today’s race and eliminate the horses with the low statistics and mark the horses with the positive winning statistics. Best of all PickMaster will recalculate its statistics after each elimination and each positive selection and then show us the horses to eliminate and to bet in today’s race. As usual with Horsestreet Handicapping (HSH) we have control of the program so that people can do it their way and end up with their own selections. You want to try value betting off an odds line? HSH has the option of incorporating a "smoothed" odds lines, meaning it adjusts its own line by considering and incorporating somewhat, the actual tote board odds. When employing a contender selection process, this has proven to me to be invaluable.

Did I mention contender selection? HSH, in my own personal tests, has one of the highest contender hit rates I have come across in a piece of software. In addition to using HSH, I have taken a number of Dave's Basics of Winning classes, in which he gave me a number of ideas on how to come up with a solid contender selection process using HSH. I can report that in my most recent test of contenders (August 26, 2006) where I handicapped 104 races over 16 different racetracks (I did not use races where there were first time starters, and I did not use any races on dirt off tracks), I had the winner in my top 4 (in fields of 8 or more) and in my top 3 (in fields of 7 or less) 82.5% of the time.

Now mind you, the contender selection process I use requires a live tote link (there are a number of ways to achieve this with HSH, among them a simple copy and paste of the BRISbet SuperTote, as well as the optional incorporation of the At The Races tote software), as well as utilization of the database aspects of HSH along with the Pickmaster module. It's a fairly comprehensive process to say the least.

I have used this contender selection process as a jumping off point with HSH. With the high hit rate of the contenders, I reasoned it wouldn't take much to narrow my choices down to 1 or 2, but the question remained how? Dave has, as of late, advocated the use of dutching contenders based in part on their projected $Net returns. As anyone who has witnessed his "Live Play" outings on the Internet can attest, he has mastered the art of dutching his contenders for profit.

Myself? I have tried to go down that road, but I always end up seeking another way. Dutching to me, especially in this day and age, remains a highly stressful endeavor. Trying to time your wager into the pools at the last possible second, while dutching 3, 4, 5 or even more horses isn't the most calming of tasks.

Currently, I am utilizing more traditional ways to narrow down my contenders. By traditional, I am talking about HSH generated speed and pace figures, of which there are plenty to choose from. The results of my testing and actual wagering have been quite encouraging, and I look forward to doing some live testing on the board and in the War Room (http://www.paceadvantage.com/WRtips.html) in the near future.

I will wrap up this first part of my Random Walk Down HORSE STREET with a review of the basics of HSH. Make no mistake, this is a SERIOUS piece of software, aimed at the PROFESSIONAL or semi-PROFESSIONAL. And the price reflects this fact. Currently, HSH can be PURCHASED for $615 (shipping and ALL the the HSH videos are included in this price). It can also be rented for $50 per month plus a one time fee of $99 to cover the price of the videos and start-up tech support (shipping ads another $16). There is also a rent-to-own option, of which I will not get into the myriad details here. Check the website for more info.

Continuing on with the basics....

HSH utilizes the famous Dave Schwartz PAR TIMES, which can also be purchased separately for anyone interested in incorporating them into their own software. I have used Dave's pars for my home-grown handicapping endeavors in the past and can report that they are accurate and effective.

As far as data goes, HSH has partnered with HDW to offer downloading of all past performance data files for every track, as well as all the accompanying charts to complete your database, for $129 a month, around the standard price for most of the programs out there that are utilizing HDW data. As many have written here on this very website, HDW data is in a class by itself, and I for one am glad Dave partnered with this most excellent group of data providers.

No review would be complete without mentioning customer service. Dave Schwartz is quite accessible, as anyone who has called the number listed on his website can attest. Not only is he quite accessible, but he is also quite generous with his time. If you are genuinely interested in learning more about HSH, or if you are interested in learning more about any of the products or services he offers, give him a call during listed business hours.

Alas, we have come to the end of part one of my Random Walk Down HORSE STREET. In subsequent posts, I hope to discuss the Basics of Winning classes I have taken under Dave's tutelage, as well as offer more insights into The Horse Street Handicapper.


For more info on HSH:

http://horsestreet.com/

chickenhead
09-07-2006, 11:51 AM
thanks PA, I look forward to hearing more about your experiences with HSH.
:ThmbUp:

Maxspa
09-07-2006, 01:08 PM
P.A.,
Your "HSH Review" is right on!
Maxspa

Red Knave
09-07-2006, 01:57 PM
Excellent review, PA.

andicap
09-07-2006, 02:49 PM
Does this mean Dave has bought an ad? :D

(Just kidding!!)

banacek
09-07-2006, 03:52 PM
So who is this Pace Advantage guy? Same old story. Yet another newbie who shows up out of nowhere and is touting some software program!;)

kenwoodallpromos
09-07-2006, 04:03 PM
Sounds very objective and non-biased!

the_fat_man
09-07-2006, 08:45 PM
Well done.

Even the most basic consideration of a multifaceted program such as this

leads to the realization that handicapping the 'old fashioned way'

is like being stuck on a highway with a POCKET FULL of QUARTERS LOOKING for a PHONE in a driving winter rainstorm

while

your 'competition' is calling from a cellphone in the comfort of his car


If I were a serious player, I'd certainly order it

DJofSD
09-07-2006, 08:53 PM
I have been using and learning version 3.11 of the software since early June, and three months later, I am comfortable enough to report that I think Dave may be onto something here (possibly the understatement of the year). I should add that to Dave's credit, he has produced a wonderful collection of informational video and audio CDs which are a must have if you want to master the different aspects of this all-encompassing handicapping program.

Mike or Dave,

How many hours a day/handicapping session and how many days a week is estimated until there's a reasonable expectation to wager successfully?

Mike,

Would you say that the video's were the greatest reason for you to become comfortable with the package? Or was it just a matter of time and perhaps the videos shorten that?

Dave Schwartz
09-07-2006, 09:56 PM
DJ,

How many hours a day/handicapping session and how many days a week is estimated until there's a reasonable expectation to wager successfully?

This is, of course, a loaded question. <G>

The simple answer is, "It depends upon the individual."

We have had users that got the software on Friday and went to the track on Saturday but that's not normal. I would say that generally a relatively sophisticated software user should get to the window with some approach within ten days or so. A less sophisticated user might take 3-4 weeks.


Would you say that the video's were the greatest reason for you to become comfortable with the package? Or was it just a matter of time and perhaps the videos shorten that?

Videos and classes are the only way to learn the program so it really isn't a choice.

The good news is that watching and listening are far better than reading for most people, especially the less-sophisticated computer users.


In the classes I have shown my precise way of play. It absolutely works. What amazes me the most is that so few people (at last count, none) have actually tried it my way. I mean it is a dead-bang automatic winner.


If anyone would care for a demo of the software I'd be pleased to arrange that. We'll simply play some races together one day or evening.


Dave

Zaf
09-07-2006, 11:17 PM
Thanks for the comprehensive review PA :ThmbUp:

Z

DJofSD
09-08-2006, 07:39 PM
Dave,

What is the expected arrangement of the DVD when viewing the videos? Is a separate DVD player and video monitor sufficient or do I need to have the DVD player co-resident on the PC with the HSH software for the tutorial to work?

chickenhead
09-08-2006, 08:02 PM
They're CD's, not DVD's. You play them on your computer.

Topcat
09-12-2006, 04:26 AM
I wouldn't be intimidated about buying andn using HSH. While it has a lot of tools and lures in the tackle box you can start fishing with just one or two ready to go such as "systems" or "handicappers headquarters" or some of the ratings which are already set up. This quickee approach may not be optimal but it will give you output at least as good as most other programs. I've tried most of them. As you have time you can delve into other aspects. There are plenty of post on the horsestreet board that can

What I really like about HSH is the ability to test factors and approaches. There are a few other decent pieces of software out there that allow you to test but building a good size database with HSH is much quicker.

And yes you can study factors in combinations outside of the software using the CSV export. To see how to do it without even having a database you can see the FAQ on horsetreet site.

098poi
09-12-2006, 07:28 AM
I recently purchased the HSH software and am still a newbie with its use. First I must say Dave has been completely accessible and helpful. He also wrote in (for a justified fee) my own pace formula that I made and was manually entering into an Excel spreadsheet. Now with the click of a mouse I can apply my formula to any paceline I desire. Dave was a little skeptical at first (being far more experienced with any number of pace formulas and concepts) but I assured him I would take full responsibility for my results. Bottom line is he showed some integrity and let me know if I wanted him to write something based on wacky stuff (like if the first letter of the jocks last name was the same as the horses put a star next to it) he would not do it, even for a fee.



So far I have been having a great time. I have only seen a few videos but have seen enough to get started and incorporate my formula, which is still a work in progress. I have been handicapping a lot but not wagering because I want to find my truest direction.



The videos have been very helpful but some written reference would be nice. Even if HQ (Handicapping Headquarters) could be on the screen in a sample form, and when I click each box a dialog box would appear with the name and small explanation of what it means.



The only problem I have seen for me is the notion of point and click handicapping. The first few days I wasn't even looking at Formulator (DRF interface). I am very much a conditions handicapper along with all the "numbers". Even if I click a button that says "These are the most likely contenders", I still am more comfortable looking at the form, getting an idea of who I like, then seeing which ones get backed up by the numbers.



I also have found it is probably best to view the videos in order. I have jumped ahead and gone HUH!!!!!!! But the best way to learn is by doing it. I know I need to look at more videos (more than once).



Some common expressions

Practice makes perfect which yields

Perfect practice makes perfect (if you are practicing wrong you can do it forever and never get it) which yields

Repetition is the mother of skill!



It's funny, even though I have not been wagering I still get the same rush when my horse crosses the line first.



Good Luck!!!!!!

Dave Schwartz
10-18-2006, 01:20 PM
We will be releasing HSH v.4 within the next 30 days or so.

Anyone interested can read a little about the beta version developments in this on-going thread on our BBS:

http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum40/HTML/000001.html

(Note that purchasers of HSH get one year of free upgrades. After that major upgrades are now $97- usually about every 8-12 months - HSH just keeps getting better & better.)


A couple of weeks ago we ran an eBay sale to say "Thank You" to PA. We sold two products and PA received his well-deserved portion. And a big thanks to all who participated in that auction.

In the next few days we will announce another eBay auction. Stay tuned.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Sly7449
10-18-2006, 04:03 PM
After viewing the sneak preview of H4, I am amazed at the great quantity of added features in this Program. Not like it was lacking that many but Dave managed to expand his thought process and that of others and craft many useful tools in the Program.

Oh for sure, additional buttons in a robust program would seem even more confusing.

Surprise! Dave have found a way to greatly automate some Key Processes thus reducing as many as SIX mouse strokes into just ONE. Not to mention the added "BANG" stored in this cannon.

Had this much anticipated upgrade been released in late June, it sure would have caused Fireworks for the 4th. What a Celebration. Imagine H4 on the 4th.

So then, we are going to miss Halloween cause it won't be a Trick or Treat however, things looks like we will be able to pluck at its feathers through the Thanksgiving and appropriately give thanks for all the Christmas presents we anticipate to place under the tree courtesy H4.

With the load of additional features, one sure could expect the value of this product to hit the roof. Either that or an end to sales period.

Cheers to those Lucky ones that get the program through the Auction.

L8R

Sly

spitthebit
10-22-2006, 09:06 PM
Had the chance to see a sneak preview of H4 this week. Pretty impressive stuff. I'm not a frequent poster here, but enjoy this board, and it was here that I learned of HSH earlier this year. I then purchased it after researching it thoroughly in the archives here, so I thought it fair to add my comments for others who might be considering checking it out.

I feel like a 16 year-old with a learners permit to drive who is about to get handed the keys to a Ferrarri. My primary goal is to play multi-horse win bets via dutching, and I have been developing these skills in H3 for the past few months. Dave has followed through on his promises of giving us all the tools necessary to fully automate this process in H4 for some serious high-volume play. Starting with the display of upcoming races that match your target criteria, to a batch bet capability with the push of a "bang button" it appears that we'll now have the ability to become small-scale versions of Bill Benter in the comforts of our den. Heck, there are probably some big-time rebate players who don't have the horsepower that H4 appears to have.

Of course you need to generate the type of contender selection performance needed to make that kind of play profitable. The learning curve is a tad steep, but I've been able to match the performance in H3 that PA saw when he initially posted this review. This came through much trial and error, with some tedious testing with pencil and paper, and though I feel this is the best way to immerse yourself in any new program, H4 also delivers an improved research tool through its Analyst feature that should greatly accelerate one's development of a winning approach.

Wished I had discovered HSH sooner, as I invested two years and huge database costs with All-Ways before realizing there was something far more powerful in HSH. I still use All-Ways for some spot play strategies I developed, but H4 is clearly the way to go IMO for anyone that wants to tackle the game on a serious level.

PaceAdvantage
10-23-2006, 07:55 PM
My primary goal is to play multi-horse win bets via dutching, and I have been developing these skills in H3 for the past few months.


STB,

Thanks for the reply. May I inquire as to what your minimum dutch odds are before you decide whether or not to pull the trigger on a given race?

Also, do rebates factor into your minimum?

spitthebit
10-24-2006, 07:15 PM
PA-
I look for a minimum 1-to-2 return to pull the trigger, though I'll occassionally consider a race playable in the 40 per cent range if I feel good about it. That's not counting the rebate. I know that there are some HSH-ers that will pull the trigger for as low as low/mid 20s per cent returns, but I haven't yet seen how to get a hit rate needed to make that threshhold profitable.

H4 has a feature that will automatically calculate the rebates upfront. As you might know, Dave favors calculating the rebates upfront when analyzing ROI, so as an example a $100 dutch bet with a 7% rebate is risking only $93.

bigmack
10-24-2006, 07:21 PM
My primary goal is to play multi-horse win bets via dutching, and I have been developing these skills in H3 for the past few months
BitSpit- If I might ask, what % of races are you using >3 hossies and do you flat bet?

spitthebit
10-24-2006, 08:52 PM
For the most part, when I have to go four horses deep my dutch return is below my 0.5 threshhold and I pass, but it appears that about 10% of my overall playable races enable me to go four-deep. This is usually when the favorite, and often top two betting choices, are "bet against" horses, and at least two of my four hossies are going off at nice prices. I must say that this ability to quickly isolate those unprofitable top public choices is one of the great strengths of HSH.

I've tackled this whole thing from a dutch-only standpoint, but I know of at least one other HSH-er who is flat-betting multiple horses using similar contender selection criteria, and he's apparently running slightly above break-even with a decent volume of playable races. So if his approach holds up he stands to grind out a decent profit with rebates. My goal is to achieve a hit rate that will enable me to play with healthy units, and I'm willing to sacrifice some ROI to do this. I'm still convinced that dutching is the best way to achieve this, but I'll be open to flat-betting if further research proves it worthwhile.

Heck, I've even considered splitting my bets 50-50, with half the unit going to a true dutch, and the other half going to flat bets. That would give me the best of both worlds, and ideally remain profitable over any given stretch of races, whether they be chalky or contain nice pockets of price horses. The automation power of H4 appears to make this kind of ticket structuring do-able, even at 1 MTP, so this is an issue that bears further monitoring.

punteray
10-25-2006, 10:19 AM
I have a "dutching" program that I wrote and offered it for free on a web site (had over 800 downloads). The website is kaput but for those of you who did not get a copy just send me your email address and I will shoot you a copy.

Send to : punteray@yahoo.com

P. S. I will be out of town until the 30th so be patient

Ray

Murph
11-25-2006, 12:07 PM
I don't know where to begin, so I will just let the thoughts flow, with the advance warning that there will probably be a few "parts" to this review.

I have been using and learning version 3.11 of the software since early June, and three months later, I am comfortable enough to report that I think Dave may be onto something here (possibly the understatement of the year). I should add that to Dave's credit, he has produced a wonderful collection of informational video and audio CDs which are a must have if you want to master the different aspects of this all-encompassing handicapping program.

http://horsestreet.com/How are you comming along with using HSH, Mike?

Murph

PaceAdvantage
11-25-2006, 02:51 PM
Unfortunately (or fortunately), after firing up my homegrown software for the Breeders' Cup (to revive an old tradition I had going here on PA), I got sucked back into the world of "trying to make it better," based partly on some of the stuff I've learned from Dave and HSH.

I'm a programmer and a handicapper at heart, so I all too easily get obsessed with my own software, and this is another one of those times....so....HSH is currently on the back burner....

Dave Schwartz
11-25-2006, 04:04 PM
Ah, yes... the dreaded N.I.H. gene. (Not Invented Here.) I suffer from that malady myself.


Dave

PlanB
11-25-2006, 07:17 PM
I'd Like to propose this: A CONTEST AMONG THE SOFTWARE PROGRAMS. I will
offer the winner's Prize. Is there an interest in testing these software proggys?
Come On please.

Dave Schwartz
11-25-2006, 07:38 PM
This is kind of old territory. The problem is that no two players use a program the same way so you really aren't testing the software but the users.

Periodically I have done "live plays" to demonstrate HSH. I will begin a new round of those after I release H4.


Dave

PlanB
11-26-2006, 04:21 AM
It's just like what I'm using now, a very good fig service that gives a lot of info but YOU must decide.

garyoz
11-26-2006, 11:38 AM
It's just like what I'm using now, a very good fig service that gives a lot of info but YOU must decide.

Curious as to what fig service you are using?

Dave Schwartz
11-26-2006, 01:16 PM
LOL - Yeah, just like a fig service.

Personally, I click three buttons and get unique plays. Try that with a fig service.



Dave

tboles
11-26-2006, 04:02 PM
LOL - Yeah, just like a fig service.
Personally, I click three buttons and get unique plays. Try that with a fig service.

Dave, I believe there are fig services out there that will allow users to do the same to receive "unique" plays.

Those services also allow handicappers to keep expenses lower, while helping them identify the profitable aspects of their own handicapping skill.

Speed figs should be used as a tool as should any type of handicapping software.

Dave Schwartz
11-26-2006, 04:45 PM
Tony,

I stand corrected and educated.

I always assumed that a figure maker, uh... made figures. <G>


Dave

cj
11-26-2006, 05:18 PM
I always assumed ...Dave

A-S-S-U-M-E :)

tboles
11-26-2006, 05:46 PM
Come on Dave....I found the answer here <BG>

https://www.ntra.com/ntrau_index.aspx

spilparc
11-27-2006, 11:10 PM
I'm very curious about this software and have been for a long time. I have so many questions that I don't want to bore everybody with them here. So let me just ask a couple for now.

Is this software applicable for single horse win betting?

Do you have to subscribe to a data feed service in order to make it work.

Thanks,

Steve

Dave Schwartz
11-28-2006, 12:00 AM
Is this software applicable for single horse win betting?

Do you have to subscribe to a data feed service in order to make it work.


The answer would be, "Yes" to both of those.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

punteray
11-28-2006, 03:14 PM
I received a request for my dutching program from email address :

sfc123@gmail.com If you read this it is a BAD EMAIL ADDRESS, keep on getting it returned.:mad:

Ray www.punteray@yahoo.com (http://www.punteray@yahoo.com)

Speed I know!! Horses! I'm not so sure!!