The superfecta

[rolling]

I like some opinions on this bet is keying better than boxing or just pickig 1234.How do you handicap 3rd 4th.:confused:

[NEhandicapper]

Except for a two horse exacta box, in general, I try to stay away from boxing. Handicapping for the win and place positions are easier then the show. In my opinion, the fourth position is near impossible and you should reserve the most coverage for this spot. I’ve seen too many horses that enter a race and have not finished better then sixth in their last five races only to nose into fourth when I keep them off my super ticket.



I’ve had success with playing a AB/AB/CDEF/CDEFGHIJ for a ten horse field. I hit using this structure fequently for good payoffs. But, I do not play the super frequently and I do modify how I structure the wager –you always have to adjust for the type of race at hand -this is why I do not recommend boxing, too mechanical for this type of bet.



I have hit the super three times with a straight ticket. Two of those times, which were signers, was by playing lotto style, e.g- birthday numbers... The one straight I hit that I actually handicppped, , I just wagered my top four graded horses- which must of ended up being the crowds picks also, as it payed $90 – still not bad for a $2 ticket.

[JustRalph]

ten centers at 2.40 for a 4 horse box..............? How can you not play that one? great fun bets............

[rrpic6]

I like some opinions on this bet is keying better than boxing or just pickig 1234.How do you handicap 3rd 4th.:confused:

The only way I condone boxing in Superfectas is ABCD/ABCD/ABCD/ABCDEFGH. This is a $120 bet or $12 for the tencenter. You are actually playing a $5 tri-box with the 1st 4 horses then adding 4 more for the 4th slot. A good gamble as it seems that many supers pay 10 times or more than the tri payout. Randomly look at results to see if i'm pretty close on this assumption.

Playing the 10 centers can be a gold mine. You can key 1 horse on top of 9 for $50.40. Better than wagering $50 on an even money that deserves to be the chalk. You can get lucky and pick up a few hundred dollars. I like the ABC/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFG/ALL bet. This is usually about $54 to 63 depending on the 4th slot.

[bigmack]

The only way I condone boxing in Superfectas is ABCD/ABCD/ABCD/ABCDEFGH.
I rarely pay attention to threads of wager structuring but your post triggered me into configuring different combinations and two of them came through, one of wonderous significance. I thank you

[rrpic6]

I rarely pay attention to threads of wager structuring but your post triggered me into configuring different combinations and two of them came through, one of wonderous significance. I thank you

Cool! What did you hit? No Redboard worries, just curious.

[twindouble]

I'm not going to pick apart how anyone structures their super wager but I will say this I play them when ever I think I can make a good buck and my win % is respectable considering you don't have to hit that many to stay ahead of them.

That all button is inevitable at times but as a handicapper I try to stay away from it, I like to keep my wager within a reasonable level weighing the potential payoff.

When to hit the all? I'll hit it when I've got at least two horses in there that have real good value, 10-1 and up and I don't toss the chalk just looking for a good huge payoff, the chalk can hit the board and you still can make a good score. There's no way I would want to lose that race with value like that. Not that I don't at times.

In other situations where I feel 3 or 4 horses that have no shot to hit the board, I trust my handicapping and ignore the all, less investment.

To me the best wager in the super is one key horse with value and being able to eliminate others. Here again, key horses keep the cost down. Depending on how strong I feel about the key, I'll use that one first, second and third. I rarely go to the 4th slot, I pick up those horses I feel will fall in for 4th.

Other times, when I can't separate two or three horses on the win, I'll use them on top, with three horses in contention in most case one or two will have reasonable value so I fill in from there. Here again leaning on my handicapping to eliminate others. In other words it all depends on how I see the race, for example, I got two or three sprinters going a mile 1/8 on the off turf and I got stalkers that won't be far off or closer's that fit the conditions and so on. Why invest in those that just won't be there at the end. Unless I feel they could hold on for a minor piece.

There's other conditions that dictate how I structure the wager but the above is most common.


Good luck,

T.D.

[rrpic6]

TwinDouble:

I've been burned too many times by thinking I'm a good enough handicapper that I can throw out 2 or 3 horses in the 4th slot. On one nite in the spring, I intentionally left out one horse in the 3rd slot of a tri and one horse in the 4th slot (twice) in supers and lost all 3 bets, as each horse that I left out ran in that spot. A horse entered tomorrow at Fairplex, Run Around Sue, was 99-1 in a 14 horse field in her debut. I had decided that was going to be the one horse I was going to throw out in the 4th slot, just to prove it could not happen again. I decided to press the all button instead on hitting the #1 thru 13 individually. She ran 4th, naturally, and I was amazed that I almost lost again because of stubborness. The 10 cent super paid over $2,000.

[twindouble]

TwinDouble:

I've been burned too many times by thinking I'm a good enough handicapper that I can throw out 2 or 3 horses in the 4th slot. On one nite in the spring, I intentionally left out one horse in the 3rd slot of a tri and one horse in the 4th slot (twice) in supers and lost all 3 bets, as each horse that I left out ran in that spot. A horse entered tomorrow at Fairplex, Run Around Sue, was 99-1 in a 14 horse field in her debut. I had decided that was going to be the one horse I was going to throw out in the 4th slot, just to prove it could not happen again. I decided to press the all button instead on hitting the #1 thru 13 individually. She ran 4th, naturally, and I was amazed that I almost lost again because of stubborness. The 10 cent super paid over $2,000.

Not saying I'm a better handicapper than anyone here but there's no question in my mind the greater majority of the time I can elimate horses with confidence. Not that things like you mentioned hasn't happened to me but it don't rattle my cage to the point where there's a need to start hitting the all in every super. I never play the dime super anyway. Like I said I do use in that one example I gave, as a matter of fact, I've hit the all for third and fourth because I had that real good value with the others I liked. I don't let examples like yours change what has been working for me for so long. I'll never go broke playing the supers anyway, I'll take those same horses, flat bet, exacta's and picks. Horses you really like with reasonable value don't hit you in the face every day, let alone those at 10-1 and up. I think tring to buy the race is a bad habit to get into, that prob don't apply in your case but it needs to said. Just to clear, I do go deep for 4th but in most cases not all.

Good luck,

T.D.

[1st time lasix]

I will use the super pool when there are at least nine entries. I try to key at least one horse...many times two in order to keep the price of the tickets within my bankroll. I strive to beat an "odds on" public choice {therefore keying that horse underneath}...if I can't leave that horse off the top spot due to vulnerability....than I never use the second or third choice in the second hole. I feel it is a must to split favorites to get overlay value in the exotics. A/DEF/ BCD/BCDEFG. I have found that my best winners occur {with some frequency} when a longer shot hits the board in the second spot under a moderate priced choice on top. The favorite might finish third or fourth. BC/DEFG/chalk/BCDEFG BC/DEFG/BCDEFG/chalk Many time I use the super pools with other bets in the exacta or win pools as savers. Try to catch the big one while stayng alive with smaller overlay winners when I miss. If a race comes in true to the odds board 1.2,3,in order...I lose.

[dav4463]

When I play a superfecta. I find a key horse (Horse A) that I like to finish first or second and is not the favorite. I prefer this horse to be 4-1 or higher. Ticket structure is:

A w BCDE w BCDE w BCDE and
BCDE w A w BCDE w BCDE

You may add a F and G horse for 4th place if you feel the need. I usually don't, but if you do, make sure they are real bombs 10-1 or higher odds.

[Robert Fischer]

Supers are a spot play for me. If on the rare occasion that my win selection for the race is a bonified overlay , I will consider looking for value in the super. I prefer to play the 10c/ variety, but will consider $1 supers as well. The ability to pounce. -To fully take advantage of a rare overlay opportunity, is something I am always looking to improve on, and hope to more completely add to my wagering strategy. Oftentimes understanding (or having a good probability of understanding) a negative form aspect about an otherwise highly competitive horse is the key to these opportunities. Something looks so bad about a horse that he is 10/1 , when you have a good idea that in reality, it isn't a meaningful negative. The tenth at Belmont Saturday was a good example.