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zerosky

09-05-2006, 02:26 PM

I have read in a few places that it is a wise to “press your bets” during a winning streak and,
conversely, to “draw your horns in” when a losing streak happens

Assuming for a moment that this advice is correct!

At what point during a sequence of bets can it be said that you are doing well.
Rather than having a vague feeling that you suddenly have more cash in your pocket, is there a more formal definition?

I realise that winners and losers will appear at random and that there is no way to predict either,
the rate, or sequence, of future events based upon that of prior events.
But Luck, rather like Vegas Card Shoes can be “Lumpy”

In short how do you know when you’re in a lumpy bit! :)

skate

09-05-2006, 03:17 PM

Zerosky;

ok ok , i think a little refraining comes to play here, on, "if you are hot" or what.

it has been said that people do not recognize when they are hot or not. and this comes from quotes, mostly, by pit bosses and/or casinos. it's said that this helps the casinos. true or not? maybe.

ive seen such happenings at the crap table, it is a hot / cold game. to recognize this, can, in the long run, help.
i'll switch sides after 2 (at the most 3) rolls on the table.

horses are different. so my look at your statement would conclude, depends on the game.

craps is very simple, it is either right or wrong. not so with the horses, many variables. you are able to "DO" so much more with horses than you can with craps, cards or lottery etc.

that does not mean that "luck" does not come to play in all games.

jfdinneen

09-05-2006, 04:40 PM

Zerosky,

As you know, the market has no memory of your prior results so "Hot or Not" - you should stick to your money management plan (based on strike rate and betting bank) - assuming your results are within the margin of error.

Note Peter Webb (http://www.peterwebb.co.uk/probability.htm#consecutives) provides a simple formula -

ROUND(LN(1000)/-LN((1-StrikeRate%)),0)

- for calculating longest expected losing runs based on estimated strike rates.

Best wishes,

John

zerosky

09-05-2006, 05:28 PM

Zerosky;

horses are different. so my look at your statement would conclude, depends on the game.

craps is very simple, it is either right or wrong. not so with the horses, many variables. you are able to "DO" so much more with horses than you can with craps, cards or lottery etc.

Think I agree about having too many variables,

I don't have the patience to follow a strict staking strategy. I just naturally
raise the stakes after a few winners, and reduce after losers.

Was thinking of using a simple trigger point, on when to raise or when to fold.

zerosky

09-05-2006, 05:31 PM

Zerosky,

Note Peter Webb (http://www.peterwebb.co.uk/probability.htm#consecutives) provides a simple formula -

John

that’s a good link some interesting stuff there,
though it needs some new stuff I don’t think its been updated for a while

DanG

09-05-2006, 08:30 PM

Thanks for the link jfdinneen...

Very helpful.:ThmbUp:

jfdinneen

09-06-2006, 11:29 AM

Zerosky / DanG,

Given that Peter has just published his first book (Profitable Exchange Trading (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Profitable-Exchange-Trading/dp/1843440288/)) and that he is one of the creative talents behind BetAngel (http://www.betangel.com/), I think we can forgive him not updating the URL referenced above.

Best wishes,

John

skate

09-06-2006, 12:14 PM

Zerosky;

carefull, i didn't mean, too many variables. only to point out that lots of variables exist.
it is easy and the only way to go, i.e., limit, limit and limit the variables. a must, have a bigger than enough bankroll.

when you are "on coarse", something is working, and if the odds go High enough, raise the bet. forget everything but the Horse and the odds. Everything...

zerosky

09-06-2006, 03:50 PM