Good Handicapping, rotten wagering

[betchatoo]

I have often wondered why people who won’t talk to each other feel compelled to go on Jerry Springer and tell their most shameful secrets. And here I am, doing the same with racing.

I am the proud owner of two of the best products in handicapping, JCapper and CJ’s figures. Recently on CJ’s boards there has been a lot of discussion on the new polytrack at Woodbine and its effect on the races. So Saturday morning, while I waited for my girlfriend to get ready to go out, I decided to look over the card.

The fifth race, a MSW at 6.5 furlongs on the dirt, immediately caught my eye. The J1 horse (JCappers prime number) was a 15-1 shot in an 11 horse field #11 Bajan Princess. In addition I had a positive UDM on the horse. To make it more intriguing I had a negative, false favorite, marked by the 4-5 morning line horse. I decided to explore it further by going through CJ’s numbers on the race.

I started by looking at the chalk. This horse had 3 races. Her first figure was just average with the rest of the horses. Then she ran a big figure. Her 3rd race, a switch to the turf was closer to her first number. Obviously there could be a number of reasons for this. She didn’t like turf, she didn’t like the distance or she just wasn’t that good. Since she was 4-5 (and the trainer was 0-10 with horses off more than 30 days), I decided to go with the last theory.

Bajan Princess had some negatives, too. She was 0-12. However, she was still a 3 year old and her numbers were competitive. Her last race which was on the turf matched her top number, there was a good chance she could move forward. She was an E horse, switching back to a dirt sprint. She was second off layoff, her trainer was hot and she was getting a very favorable jockey switch. So, at the price, I decided she was worth the go. And that’s where stupidity reared its ugly head.

The 5th was the second leg of the pick 4 so I singled her in a $120 bet (4, 5 and 6 horses in the other legs). When I got home that night, I looked at the races in order. I had the winner of the 4th at $26.20. Now I looked at my race. Bajan Princess won by 2 and1/2 and paid $26.80. Had the next race and it paid $18.30. What was really interesting is that when I checked the pick 3, no one had it. They paid on 2-3. The pool was just short of $6,000. Now I was excited. I had 6 horses in the last race. Even if I didn’t win I would probably get consolation money on 3-4. Needless to say, I did not hit the last part. And the winning pick 4 paid over 15k for a buck.

For those of you saying, you idiot, if you’d bet that $120 to win you’d have gotten back over $1,600, trust me, I know. :bang: For those of you saying YOU IDIOT, if you’d have just put up an extra $20 and played the pick 3 you would have taken the whole pool, I KNOW, I KNOW!!!! :bang: :bang:

Anyway, that’s my tale of stupidity. I guess I’m wondering if I’m alone out here, or if others have tales of the good handicapping, rotten wagering syndrome

[GaryG]

Look at it this way: You still have your health and your lady friend. You also have the ability to pick some nice winners at good odds. Lots of people would say you had the world by the tail on a downhill pull...:jump: :jump: :jump:

[JustRalph]

I have been shopping around for some new software..........hmmmmm......

I think I would have dropped some win money on each of those races too....

[twindouble]

The 5th was the second leg of the pick 4 so I singled her in a $120 bet (4, 5 and 6 horses in the other legs). When I got home that night, I looked at the races in order. I had the winner of the 4th at $26.20. Now I looked at my race. Bajan Princess won by 2 and1/2 and paid $26.80. Had the next race and it paid $18.30. What was really interesting is that when I checked the pick 3, no one had it. They paid on 2-3. The pool was just short of $6,000. Now I was excited. I had 6 horses in the last race. Even if I didn’t win I would probably get consolation money on 3-4. Needless to say, I did not hit the last part. And the winning pick 4 paid over 15k for a buck.


First let me say keying a $26.00 horse is nothing to ashamed about. I think where you missed the boat was when you went 4,5,and 6 deep in the other races. That tells me you felt the races were open for value ESP the last leg. Think about it, you had value with your key also, so in my mind the only mistake you made was not covering all possibilities. On the other hand, if your bankroll didn't warrant such a move who's to say it was wrong. Also on the early pick 3, sounds to me like you didn't conceder playing it, no mistake in my opinion. Look at it this way, if one of the 6 wins in the last leg you would have had a lot a cheese.

Now, not betting a key horse at 12-1, well what can I say, there's no excuse for that. :sleeping: That's right you were sleeping on the job.



T.D.

[Hank]

Not a bad bet at all. Just a bad result. Your live to 6 horses in the last race of a large pick 4 and dont hit.It was just NOT for you my friend. If one of your six gets up does it become a good bet? Check this out I was in a casino once watching a blackjack game one of the players was a lil old lady she takes a hit on 19 and gets 2 for blackjack. Was that a GOOD bet?:D All good bets don't win and all bad bets don't lose,Its not easy but you have to FORGET IT.

[keilan]

I’d say this was a tremendous wager – would like to have 6 horses in the last leg everyday. This is precisely the correct time to wager on p4 pools imo. You did have overlays in the 1st three legs. Yes a li’l win money or x’s bets would have been ideal but you played the p4 exactly right in my estimation.

[joeyspicks]

I’d say this was a tremendous wager – would like to have 6 horses in the last leg everyday. .

I agree.

Yes its frustrating....and EVERYONE most likely has a simular story. I once had a 10-1 shot in leg 1, 99-1 in leg 2, and in leg 3 (a maiden) I had the only 3 horses that had run before (out of a field of 7)....of course a fts wins (trainer 0-24 at that point). I like you collected NOTHING. Since then I play win and win/place even when I play a pk3 or 4.

[ryesteve]

I don't mean this as a redboard, but I'm curious to know, if you're covering 6 horses in that final leg, how did you end up to tossing out a horse who finished 2nd last out vs. this same level of maidens? Did you see something in him you didn't like, or did you find more positives in the other horses?

[betchatoo]

I don't mean this as a redboard, but I'm curious to know, if you're covering 6 horses in that final leg, how did you end up to tossing out a horse who finished 2nd last out vs. this same level of maidens? Did you see something in him you didn't like, or did you find more positives in the other horses?

I had other horses that I thought had better numbers and/or more up potential. Add that to a trainer who was 6 for 119 and he looked like a throwout to me.

[ryesteve]

I had other horses that I thought had better numbers and/or more up potential. Add that to a trainer who was 6 for 119
Ouch... yeah, 6-119 sounds like grounds for dismissal alright. Tough one...

[bettheoverlay]

Somewhat similiar for me at Ellis yesterday. Held some P3 and P4 tickets on the last 4 races. Out early, didn't play my key horse in the 11th to win, didn't even look, engrossed in P3s at Del Mar and elsewhere. Chet, the J1 horse in Jcapper, 5-1 ML ended up winning and paying $44.20!

J1 prices have been terrific lately. Kinda glad Jeff stopped selling. Just gotta remember to bet to win on the good ones.

[CapperLou]

Somewhat similiar for me at Ellis yesterday. Held some P3 and P4 tickets on the last 4 races. Out early, didn't play my key horse in the 11th to win, didn't even look, engrossed in P3s at Del Mar and elsewhere. Chet, the J1 horse in Jcapper, 5-1 ML ended up winning and paying $44.20!

J1 prices have been terrific lately. Kinda glad Jeff stopped selling. Just gotta remember to bet to win on the good ones.


Yes; the J1 prices on the ones I have played with my udm's have been unreal as of late. There are some dry spells, but then the winners and the prices go nuts---lots of fun to cash em!!!

If I were playing these exotics--I would always have a minimum of 60% of my total wager in the win slot on my key horse etc. Most people I know who are successful with exotic plays usually play 70% in win spot and balance on the pick 3, 4 or the others.

Thank goodness Jeff stopped selling!!!!!!!!

All the Best,

CapperLou

[Valuist]

Somewhat similiar for me at Ellis yesterday. Held some P3 and P4 tickets on the last 4 races. Out early, didn't play my key horse in the 11th to win, didn't even look, engrossed in P3s at Del Mar and elsewhere. Chet, the J1 horse in Jcapper, 5-1 ML ended up winning and paying $44.20!

J1 prices have been terrific lately. Kinda glad Jeff stopped selling. Just gotta remember to bet to win on the good ones.

Glad somebody liked Chet. I certainly didn't. That was one result where I absolutely couldn't make a case for the winner.

[keilan]

If I were playing these exotics--I would always have a minimum of 60% of my total wager in the win slot on my key horse etc. Most people I know who are successful with exotic plays usually play 70% in win spot and balance on the pick 3, 4 or the others.




And how much money are you spending in your average race?

[CapperLou]

The amount makes no difference--everyone has their own limits. This is based on one unit--the unit might be $10 $100 etc.

I did not play Chet either--only was a J1 for me, but the double on first two was playable and their was that Hammer Down Hank in 6th that paid 8.20 that was the best one for me at ELP yesterday.

I should also point out that I usually play only to win--so I'm certainly no expert on how to play exotics. I do however sometimes play a pick 3 or an exacta or superfecta and use the outline I posted.

CapperLou

[keilan]

Of course it makes a difference – try structuring a p4 wager on $16/24/36 dollars etc. People play quick picks for the p6 as well and win but that isn’t the method/structure p6 players would endorse.

Your advice is worthless but then again you’re a self proclaimed “win bettor”.

[rrbauer]

I’d say this was a tremendous wager – would like to have 6 horses in the last leg everyday. This is precisely the correct time to wager on p4 pools imo. You did have overlays in the 1st three legs. Yes a li’l win money or x’s bets would have been ideal but you played the p4 exactly right in my estimation.


Don't know the field size of the last leg, but if you had to use six then why not "All"? Keilan and I disagree on this strategy mainly because I have been in this situation many times (although not recently because I know that if I have to use half or more of the field then its chaos time and I know how to control that with the "All" button) and I'm tired of talking about the one that got away! The concept of equity is in play here. You have made a play that if you get to the close-out leg and are alive you want to bring home the big bacon. Your ticket has huge equity at that point.

Now, maybe you were just winging it and had an extra $120 for recreation in which case it's just an expensive story. But, if you're going to be a winner in this game and you're trying to do it using multi-race bets then once positioned to cash out 4-figures plus you need to take them down. At the same time, as you surmise, a win wager on a price horse gets you the money right then and there without the downstream agony.

Tough beat!

[ryesteve]

Don't know the field size of the last leg, but if you had to use six then why not "All"?
I think there were 11... but I'm wondering, if you feel you need to use "ALL" at the back end of a p4, wouldn't you be better off just betting a p3?

[Fwizard]

Let me ask then ---for those that bet a win or win/place combined with any exotic wager ex,tri, p3, p4 etc is there a suggested percentage for each like flat bet 70/30 or such....I too will bet win or wp about 67% and then play exotics without backing it up with a flat bet and sometimes have it bite me in the butt...

[CapperLou]

Of course it makes a difference – try structuring a p4 wager on $16/24/36 dollars etc. People play quick picks for the p6 as well and win but that isn’t the method/structure p6 players would endorse.

Your advice is worthless but then again you’re a self proclaimed “win bettor”.

You are right!!! I was referring to structures of Win and Exactas, P3 or Supers. Cannot do this with pick 4's or 6's of course.

Sorry for screwup, but that is what little sleep will do at times.

[schweitz]

Don't know the field size of the last leg, but if you had to use six then why not "All"? Keilan and I disagree on this strategy mainly because I have been in this situation many times (although not recently because I know that if I have to use half or more of the field then its chaos time and I know how to control that with the "All" button) and I'm tired of talking about the one that got away! The concept of equity is in play here. You have made a play that if you get to the close-out leg and are alive you want to bring home the big bacon. Your ticket has huge equity at that point.

Now, maybe you were just winging it and had an extra $120 for recreation in which case it's just an expensive story. But, if you're going to be a winner in this game and you're trying to do it using multi-race bets then once positioned to cash out 4-figures plus you need to take them down. At the same time, as you surmise, a win wager on a price horse gets you the money right then and there without the downstream agony.

Tough beat!

When wagering at tracks that show the "will pays" on the last leg of the pick-3, I will sometimes buy "insurance" in the last leg. If I have caught a longshot or two in the first two legs and the "will-pays" are generous, I will look at the last leg again and if any of the horses that I didn't use in the pick-3 have any chance of spoiling my generous pick-3 payoff I will place win bets (insurance) on those horses. Sometimes a $700 or so pick-3 nets me less because because I wagered an extra 50 or 60 bucks on win tickets---but sometimes those win tickets pay off nicely and help keep my sanity about not having the pick-3.

[keilan]

Let me ask then ---for those that bet a win or win/place combined with any exotic wager ex,tri, p3, p4 etc is there a suggested percentage for each like flat bet 70/30 or such....I too will bet win or wp about 67% and then play exotics without backing it up with a flat bet and sometimes have it bite me in the butt...

A sizeable win bet is always a good wager when you feel you have isolated a horse (overlay) that has a strong probability of winning. The next decision is whether to include serial or exotic plays based on the strength of your opinion in “said race” and or races preceding and following that race.

If you firmly believe that you have an edge in 50% or more of the races in a serial wager and the pool is healthy then I’d suggest taking a swing. If no edge can be found in serial races then simply load up in the win, x’s and tri pools. When you are right one needs to be paid.

Instead of playing place bets in this spot, why not use that money to have that horse run 2nd in the exotics. Place money is like kissing your sister no!!!

[keilan]

When wagering at tracks that show the "will pays" on the last leg of the pick-3, I will sometimes buy "insurance" in the last leg. If I have caught a longshot or two in the first two legs and the "will-pays" are generous, I will look at the last leg again and if any of the horses that I didn't use in the pick-3 have any chance of spoiling my generous pick-3 payoff I will place win bets (insurance) on those horses. Sometimes a $700 or so pick-3 nets me less because because I wagered an extra 50 or 60 bucks on win tickets---but sometimes those win tickets pay off nicely and help keep my sanity about not having the pick-3.


I understand your thinking but it is flawed -- if there are potential win candidates in the final leg then they should have been included in your original ticket. You are simply playing “not to lose” which is a big difference than “wagering to win”.

That strategy makes li’l sense, why not be wagering that $50 / 60 bucks to win on the race where you felt you had the edge? If you didn’t have an edge somewhere in the serial wager why are you playing it?

P.S. rrbauer understands money management better than I, and can explain it better to boot.

[jfdinneen]

Betchatoo,

I agree with Hank that you should not be so hard on yourself.

As you know, handicapping is primarily an analytical (left-hemisphere) activity but wagering is definitely an emotional (right-hemisphere) activity. As a consequence, it is human nature to assign higher value to losses than to gains due to the "framing effect" (see Prospect Theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory)).

Best wishes,

John

[twindouble]

I don't know what the mystery is on this subject. The guy picked a 12-1 as a key horse and didn't bet it. That's a mistake, don't matter what other wagers he made, if he bets the sucker the picks are a free ride plus, providing he chooses to play them.

To me having a key with that kind of value opens up opportunity in all the pools. As it turned out he had 3 other races he deemed to be open in the pick 4 (no solid winners), just plain competitive or it's anyone's race. Those kind of races in the picks excite me having that key horse. You can bet your fanny I'll cover all those I feel have a shot because the likely hood of a huge payoff is there as he found out. You have to gamble in this game to make it. That's all it amounted to nothing more. I can't say he structured his ticket "wrong", he used all the horses he thought had a shot to win. The day is over! Go on to the next.

The bottom line is, he did some good handicapping coming up with that key horse and he was good enough to determine the other races were open. So what if he miscalculated on one race, we all do. Beside from what I gather it was an 11 horse field.

T.D.

[schweitz]

I understand your thinking but it is flawed -- if there are potential win candidates in the final leg then they should have been included in your original ticket. You are simply playing “not to lose” which is a big difference than “wagering to win”.

That strategy makes li’l sense, why not be wagering that $50 / 60 bucks to win on the race where you felt you had the edge? If you didn’t have an edge somewhere in the serial wager why are you playing it?

P.S. rrbauer understands money management better than I, and can explain it better to boot.


My edge would be in the first two legs (hence the one or two longshots caught in the first two legs and the reason to play this particular pick-3 in the first place). The strategy makes sense to me because its worked well for me---the type of pick-3s I play (only cheap claiming and maiden claiming) are chaotic by nature.

[ryesteve]

My edge would be in the first two legs (hence the one or two longshots caught in the first two legs and the reason to play this particular pick-3 in the first place). The strategy makes sense to me because its worked well for me---the type of pick-3s I play (only cheap claiming and maiden claiming) are chaotic by nature.
I think the argument is that if you were tally up all of those win bets you've made on horses you didn't like in the first place, they're undoubtedly showing substantial losses, despite the occasional hits.

[keilan]

My edge would be in the first two legs (hence the one or two longshots caught in the first two legs and the reason to play this particular pick-3 in the first place). The strategy makes sense to me because its worked well for me---the type of pick-3s I play (only cheap claiming and maiden claiming) are chaotic by nature.


If you have an edge schweitz then bet it, buying insurance on horses that weren't contenders when you purchase the ticket is bad advice plain and simply. I could give a rats ass what you claim works for you. Your wagering is chaotic

[keilan]

I don't know what the mystery is on this subject. The guy picked a 12-1 as a key horse and didn't bet it. That's a mistake, don't matter what other wagers he made, if he bets the sucker the picks are a free ride plus, providing he chooses to play them.

To me having a key with that kind of value opens up opportunity in all the pools. As it turned out he had 3 other races he deemed to be open in the pick 4 (no solid winners), just plain competitive or it's anyone's race. Those kind of races in the picks excite me having that key horse. You can bet your fanny I'll cover all those I feel have a shot because the likely hood of a huge payoff is there as he found out. You have to gamble in this game to make it. That's all it amounted to nothing more. I can't say he structured his ticket "wrong", he used all the horses he thought had a shot to win. The day is over! Go on to the next.

The bottom line is, he did some good handicapping coming up with that key horse and he was good enough to determine the other races were open. So what if he miscalculated on one race, we all do. Beside from what I gather it was an 11 horse field.

T.D.



Twin -- solid post, your first paragragh is absolute. :)

[betchatoo]

I don't know what the mystery is on this subject. The guy picked a 12-1 as a key horse and didn't bet it. That's a mistake, don't matter what other wagers he made, if he bets the sucker the picks are a free ride plus, providing he chooses to play them.

To me having a key with that kind of value opens up opportunity in all the pools. As it turned out he had 3 other races he deemed to be open in the pick 4 (no solid winners), just plain competitive or it's anyone's race. Those kind of races in the picks excite me having that key horse. You can bet your fanny I'll cover all those I feel have a shot because the likely hood of a huge payoff is there as he found out. You have to gamble in this game to make it. That's all it amounted to nothing more. I can't say he structured his ticket "wrong", he used all the horses he thought had a shot to win. The day is over! Go on to the next.

T.D.

Twin, I couldn't agree with you more. I was making a bet on my way out the door, but there is simply no excuse for not placing a straight win ticket on a double digit key horse. As far as the rest of your advice, I know the day's over and there's more races to come. I took Sunday off (more social obligations) and had a good day Monday.

Thanks to all for good wishes, advice, commiseration and commentary.

[schweitz]

If you have an edge schweitz then bet it, buying insurance on horses that weren't contenders when you purchase the ticket is bad advice plain and simply. I could give a rats ass what you claim works for you. Your wagering is chaotic

Then I guess I'll have to add that to my list of things that I do wrong according to the "experts" or maybe to the "more accomplished handicappers on this board", a phrase that has been thrown my way in the past.

My experience tells me that what I do works whether it is "Right", "Wrong", or "Chaotic" and I also give a rat's ass whether it meets your approval or not.

[twindouble]

Thanks betchatoo and keilen for commenting on one of my posts. You made my day, feels good to know I'm not on everyones ignore list.

Good luck,


T.D.

[JustRalph]

question for Betchatoo............

If you go back a few years, looking at your bets.........do you make more money on Win place show bets or on Pik3-4 bets? I would think that a quick look might give you a historical perspective.......which in turn may make you see this episode a little differently. Never hurts to look back.

[Tee]

betchatoo,

I'll ask a question or two before commenting any further.

First off I'll start with a couple of givens - 1) you had the winner of the 5th nailed & 2) you missed the last leg while going 6 deep.

With the handicapping products that you use, could you have identified the winner or runner-up in the other three races of the pick 4 sequence w/o much trouble?

Granted it's easier to say now that the races are over and done, but let's go another direction. In all honesty how did you rank the horses that finished 1st & 2nd in the other 3 legs of the pick 4?

[Tee]

An add on question for betchatoo to my previous post.

How deep would u have had to go to find any or all of the 2nd, 3rd & 4th place finishers of the 5th race?

[betchatoo]

question for Betchatoo............

If you go back a few years, looking at your bets.........do you make more money on Win place show bets or on Pik3-4 bets? I would think that a quick look might give you a historical perspective.......which in turn may make you see this episode a little differently. Never hurts to look back.

JR. I keep good records and over the last several years I have made the bulk of my money on pick 3's and 4's. I have no regrets over making this particular bet (except for the results) but I do think it was dumb of me not to bet a 12-1 shot to win. And normally, I might very well have done both the pick 3 and the pick 4. I think my pick 4 bet was fine, I consider the other decision making (or lack thereof) to have been poor.

[betchatoo]

betchatoo,

I'll ask a question or two before commenting any further.

First off I'll start with a couple of givens - 1) you had the winner of the 5th nailed & 2) you missed the last leg while going 6 deep.

With the handicapping products that you use, could you have identified the winner or runner-up in the other three races of the pick 4 sequence w/o much trouble?

Granted it's easier to say now that the races are over and done, but let's go another direction. In all honesty how did you rank the horses that finished 1st & 2nd in the other 3 legs of the pick 4?

In race 4 the winner was rated 6th by prime number in my software, but 2nd in pace and first in Pal (2nd call and late pace). He had only been on the turf once previously, had the 2nd best figure (by CJ's #), had a top trainer and jockey and looked to be improving. If picked individually would have been my first or second pick.

In the 6th the horse had the 4th best J number, was #2 in pace and first in a powerful number Jeff calls pace model index. He was my 3rd choice.

The 7th is where I might have trusted JCapper more. He was the 4th rated horse and 3rd in pace. But he would have to have been ranked 1 or 2 for it to make a difference to me. Several horses showed better figures and he had a poor trainer. In my normal decision making process I'd toss him again.

[betchatoo]

An add on question for betchatoo to my previous post.

How deep would u have had to go to find any or all of the 2nd, 3rd & 4th place finishers of the 5th race?

I would have been searching a long time to find the horse who finished 2nd in the 5th race. He was 5th or worse in all my JCapper #s. He had a poor jockey, an 0-23 trainer and he was a first time turfer with a lousy turf sire. He would have been about my 14th choice in a field of 11.

[JustRalph]

JR. I keep good records and over the last several years I have made the bulk of my money on pick 3's and 4's. I have no regrets over making this particular bet (except for the results) but I do think it was dumb of me not to bet a 12-1 shot to win. And normally, I might very well have done both the pick 3 and the pick 4. I think my pick 4 bet was fine, I consider the other decision making (or lack thereof) to have been poor.

enough said. You were playing to your strengths..........no regret there......

[rrbauer]

I think there were 11... but I'm wondering, if you feel you need to use "ALL" at the back end of a p4, wouldn't you be better off just betting a p3?

This will not be real organized....just a brain dump.

First, you don't find yourself in a position to take down a 4- or 5-figure score from a multi-race bet that often; which is why I don't like to leave a lot to chance.....and yes a P3 play would be in order just as a win bet on the leadoff longshot would be in order.

I don't play a single "ticket" when I play Pick bets. I switched from playing Pick6 bets when the Pick3 came on the scene and then I added the Pick4 to my betting menu when it came along. These are easier bets to hit, can be played for a buck per combination, and if your bankroll permits, you can play some combinations multiple times.

I don't play these bets with favorite-dominated combinations. After doing my handicapping on each race and identifying contenders as either primary or secondary I look at what kind of play I can put together using no more than two secondary contenders in a single combination and my upper limit for a play is in the $220-250 range for a P4. I put the first three legs into my P3 valuation program to see what a fair P3 price would be for all of those combinations that are candidates for the play and which have at lease one primary contender. What I'm looking for are combinations that are at least 500-1. (Often there aren't any). If the ones that are 500-1 contain at least two primary contenders then I play those with "All" in the final leg. If they have only one primary contender then I play those with just the horses that I've identified as contenders (primary and secondary) in the final leg. So what I'm doing is allowing my handicapping to drive the play into the final leg and then depending on what chance (based on handicapping) I have of getting there, I impose a special "end game" on the play.

For those combinations with contenders that project a P3 payoff of at least 100-1 but less than 500-1, I just do a regular P4 play with my combinations limited to no more than two secondary contenders. And, I have some software that limits the play accordingly and pulls the favorite-dominated combinations out of the play. (No more than two ML favs allowed....but the 100-1 P3 valuation cutoff gets most of the fav dominated combinations dropped anyway.)

The DRF guy Litfin (sp?) had a column a week or two ago about P4 plays and he advocates a similar approach in handicapping assigning A or B to his contenders and then limiting combinations to 2 or less Bs. His example showed 11 tickets being required for the play, but in actuality, you can do that type of play with 6 tickets.

AB with AB with A with A
AB with A with B with A
AB with A with A with B
A with B with B with A
A with B with A with B
A with A with B with B

It's when you start treating some of the combinations with special rules like dropping fav-dominated ones; or, using the special end-game rule, that the symmetry of the ticket constuction is upset and lots of extra tickets are required (due to the exceptions) to make the play.

I started using the special end-game rule after losing a P4 in which I had used 10 of the 12 horses in the last leg and one of the two that I had left out won at 90-1, and the P4 came back around 15 grand.

Hope my "ramble" made some sense.

[rrbauer]

keilan wrote:
"I understand your thinking but it is flawed -- if there are potential win candidates in the final leg then they should have been included in your original ticket. You are simply playing “not to lose” which is a big difference than “wagering to win”. "

Aha....the infamous "risk-aversion" strategy. Something that we are all guilty of from time to time and which many are guilty of most of the time! Good one, Keith!

BTW - The whole historical treatment of probability and risk is well documented in Peter Bernstein's Against The Gods and there are a number of good examples of how the simple evaluation of an event in terms of winning something; or, losing something can alter your perspective and behavior.

[schweitz]

I started using the special end-game rule after losing a P4 in which I had used 10 of the 12 horses in the last leg and one of the two that I had left out won at 90-1, and the P4 came back around 15 grand.

Hope my "ramble" made some sense.

Makes perfect sense to me, but could not it be said that by playing ALL in the last leg that you are wagering "not to lose"? ;)

[point given]

For what its worth. Steve Crists' last SPA Journal had an entry for his final pick 4 bet, ending the meet. Win saver bets on 2 of 5 horses he didnot have covered in his P4

"
Race 10: My NYRA One account balance stands at $0.45 after betting my last $115 in win savers to two of the five horses I'm not covered with in pick fours in this statebred N1x. There's no way I can get out for the meeting but it would be nice to have something to play with when Belmont opens Friday without a rebuy. Things break the best way when repeater D Money ($15.00) storms from last at the top of the stretch to nail saver-only Helene's Dream at the wire, completing an overlaid $5,888 pick-four and a $44k getaway pick-six for four wiser bettors. D Money, third winner of the meet for Del Carroll and 22nd for Castellano, made similar last-to-first move to win by neck at 32-1 here Aug. 13, benefits from quick pace that cooks choices Say Revain, Democrat and Mr. Bourbon Street. "

[ryesteve]

For what its worth. Steve Crists' last SPA Journal had an entry for his final pick 4 bet, ending the meet. Win saver bets on 2 of 5 horses he didnot have covered in his P4
I'm not sure if I'd want to take wagering advice from someone with 45 cents left in his pocket, even if it is Steve Crist :D

[Tee]

In race 4 the winner was rated 6th by prime number in my software, but 2nd in pace and first in Pal (2nd call and late pace). He had only been on the turf once previously, had the 2nd best figure (by CJ's #), had a top trainer and jockey and looked to be improving. If picked individually would have been my first or second pick.

In the 6th the horse had the 4th best J number, was #2 in pace and first in a powerful number Jeff calls pace model index. He was my 3rd choice.

The 7th is where I might have trusted JCapper more. He was the 4th rated horse and 3rd in pace. But he would have to have been ranked 1 or 2 for it to make a difference to me. Several horses showed better figures and he had a poor trainer. In my normal decision making process I'd toss him again.
&
I would have been searching a long time to find the horse who finished 2nd in the 5th race. He was 5th or worse in all my JCapper #s. He had a poor jockey, an 0-23 trainer and he was a first time turfer with a lousy turf sire. He would have been about my 14th choice in a field of 11.

Well betchatoo it looks like u wouldn't have had much luck playing each race of the pick 4 sequence individually. :) Which was one of my ideas that led to my query.

This is also a very good and telling sign in your response to JustRalph.
JR. I keep good records and over the last several years I have made the bulk of my money on pick 3's and 4's. I have no regrets over making this particular bet (except for the results) but I do think it was dumb of me not to bet a 12-1 shot to win. And normally, I might very well have done both the pick 3 and the pick 4. I think my pick 4 bet was fine, I consider the other decision making (or lack thereof) to have been poor.

I hope everytime you play these multiple race wagers that u have a reason for doing so, just like in the original example - that being Bajan Princess. Add to that the fact that you couldn't find the exacta, tri, super to create value in other races.

The only fault I see that has already been pointed out & self admitted is you had a prime bet candidate and failed to make the win bet.

[rrbauer]

Makes perfect sense to me, but could not it be said that by playing ALL in the last leg that you are wagering "not to lose"? ;)

As I said earlier, when I get myself in a position to take down a big one, I take it down.

[Tee]

A little poker saying might just be applicable in this instance.

"It is always better to win a small pot then to lose a big one."

[WJ47]

Yikes! It hurts when that happens! I remember once at Fort Erie, I sweated through 3 races where I had singles. Two of them were semi favorites and one of them was a decent price like 6 or 7/1. So my pick 4 ticket is alive to 6 horses in the last leg. I'm really excited because some of the horses are paying real good. I had all the horses in the race except 2 huge longshots that I didn't think had a chance. I'll admit I was confident. I thought I had it in the bag. I was eagerly scanning probable payoffs with my horses to see which of the 6 I should cheer on the most. Well, I'm sure you know whats coming. The two longshot horses that I didn't have on my ticket finished 1st and 2nd! That was really traumatizing! :mad: