software that picks for 2nd,3rd

[bettheoverlay]

Are there any commercially available software programs that specializes, at least in part, in finding horses that may outrun their odds for 2nd, 3rd, even though they may be weak in the win spot?

[traynor]

Are there any commercially available software programs that specializes, at least in part, in finding horses that may outrun their odds for 2nd, 3rd, even though they may be weak in the win spot?

Most commercial software lists the W%, WP%, and WPS%. If you look for categories of ratings that show a big jump from W% to WP%, it will put you on the right track.
Good Luck

[shanta]

Are there any commercially available software programs that specializes, at least in part, in finding horses that may outrun their odds for 2nd, 3rd, even though they may be weak in the win spot?

How bout finding horses that SPECIFICALLY place ( not winners who also pay off to place) ?

This is not something " commercially available".

If yes P.M. me Bet.

Richie :)

[Blackgold]

In the Handicapping Magic program I use, the Fulcrum often places or finishes ITM.

There are some other ideas in Pizzolla's methods that also uncovers horses that will finish under in the exotics, so you can single them in those slots.

If the runner fits the profile on one that may finish in the gimmicks and is going off at a price, I use him. If the runner isn't going off at a price, I still may use him if there is a strong potential that he will be sandwiched between price runners in the gimmicks.

Good luck!

[Lefty]

Doc Sartin talked about counter-energy. Other words if you thin race will go to an early horse, brt your best closer to place and vise versa...

[traynor]

How bout finding horses that SPECIFICALLY place ( not winners who also pay off to place) ?

This is not something " commercially available".

If yes P.M. me Bet.

Richie :)

If the W% is subtracted from the WP% for a particular readout, the result is (roughly) the probability of that particular rating filling the place position. I should have clarified that. What you want to find is big difference between W% and WP%, the higher the better, and the lower the W% the better. If W% is 20 and WP% is 35, it doesn't do you much good.

However, if the W% is 15 and the WP% is 50 or better, that tells you that the rating is likely to fill the place position roughly a third of the time (and that is more than twice as likely to place as to win). The same relationship exists between the WP% and WPS% figures; some ratings crank out 60-70% in show position. That is really useful if you bet trifectas.
Good Luck

[betovernetcapper]

For a long time I tried to keep separate models for place horses and gave up in frustration. The place horse is sometimes the same model as the win horse and sometimes completely different. The major factors seem to be track bias-race shape and sucker horse ability.
If the track bias is strongly tilted in one way or another the place horse is likely to be the second best horse. You can see this in result charts where horses break out of the gate and run 1-2 to the wire. On a closing track the winner and place horse may be the two with the best finishing kick.

In terms of the race shape, an abundance of a given running style helps the chances of any horse with a conflicting running style. Even on a speed favoring track if a race comes up with 4 or 5 early speed types the place horse can come from off the pace.

Quirin developed this wonderful number called the bridesmaid rating. You take the horses number of wins*2 and then subtract the number of places and shows. So if a horse has 1 win-three seconds and four thirds it would get a rating of -5. Horses with -3 or worse are unlikely to win but very likely to run second or third. I see a lot of these in NW-2 races. In maiden races you can't uses this number as they have no wins, but you can still look at the earnings box and see a bridesmaid tendency.
Happy Labor Day :)

[betovernetcapper]

I'm alive in the Pic3 at PRM thanks to the BR. Capper had the 1 at 8-5 and the tote had it at 3-5.
Bridesmaid Rating
#1 -5 showed
#1a -1
#2 0
#3 +3 won :)
#4 -1
#6 +3
#7 -1 placed

[ratpack]

All in One just put out an beta update that includes a Place (PMF) Move Factor.

I don't know if they are going to post it everyday like they do their WMF.