CRC PICK 3' FOR 8/11 AND 8/12/06

[formula_2002]

My bris xrd files have some pool sizes smaller than the $2 payouts.
If anyone has the results for, lets say 6th race on 8/11 at crc could you post the $2.00 payout and the pool size.
I was going post over 100 the pick three results for crc, but I have to get this resovled first


thanks
Joe M

[formula_2002]

My bris xrd files have some pool sizes smaller than the $2 payouts.
If anyone has the results for, lets say 6th race on 8/11 at crc could you post the $2.00 payout and the pool size.
I was going post over 100 the pick three results for crc, but I have to get this resovled first


thanks
Joe M

Just found this chart.
6th race - Calder Race Course - August 11, 2006

Off at: 5:05 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $36,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface Type: Turf Track Condition: Firm
Winning Time: 1:36.61
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 Flamingo Red Alfredo V. Clemente 19.00 8.00 5.20
3 Texas Red Eduardo O. Nunez 6.00 3.80
2 Johns Honor Juan C. Leyva 4.40
Also ran: 10 - Megoman , 9 - Swift Mercedes , 6 - Quackers Appeal , 4 - Barnacle Steve , 5 - Wolf Howl , 11 - New Science
Scratched horses: Joey Blueeyes , Kee Kaw , World Battle

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 2-3-1 (3 correct) 10,453.00
$2 Exacta 1-3 94.40
$2 Superfecta 1-3-2-10 11,158.00
$2 Trifecta 1-3-2 547.20
Winning Breeder: Dr. & Mrs. Cornelius Link
Winning Owner: Phil Combest
Winning Trainer: Reed M. Combest

If that payout is correct, then Aug 11 and 12 were a very SPECIAL two days at crc!!

[Tote Master]

MTP-ENT#-ODDS- WIN Pool AMT.

0….…1………..8……...$1039.00
0….…2………..9…..….$1000.00
0….…3………..6…..….$1427.00
0….…4……….25…..…$ 357.00
0….…5……….21…..…$ 447.00
0….…6………5/2…..…$2814.00
0….…7………..-…..…..---
0….…8………..-…..…..---
0….…9………8/5…....$3714.00
0….…10…….17….....$ 536.00
0….…11………8…...…$1040.00
0….…12……….-…..….---

Results
Race:…..6………………………………..Win……Place…..Show
1st…..1….FLAMINGO RED…….….19.00……8.00……5.20
2nd….3…..TEXAS RED……………………….……6.00……3.80
3rd…..2….JOHNS HONOR………………….…………….….4.40
4th…..10….MEGOMAN
$2 Exacta……………………………….…1-3……..………….94.40
$2 Trifecta…………………………….….1-3-2…………….547.20
$2 Superfecta……………………………1-3-2-10………11158.00
Refunds: 7,8,12
$2 Pick 3 2/3/1........3 of 3.........................10453.00

[Tote Master]

Very Special Days Indeed!

[formula_2002]

there were 10 race on the 11th and 6races on the 12th that were also "very special" ;) .
I really didn't believe my figures.. take a look.
Most of these payoffs were very big overlays!!

[formula_2002]

I have 80 pick 3's in my data base for aug at crc.
The sum of the actual payoffs was $21,000 greater than the expected calculated payoffs

All of that gain can be accounted for on the 11th and the 12th.

I'll triple check my numbers.

check out the 7th race on the 12th

$15,600 payout, I calculated the expected pay-out at $1378!!
7th race - Calder Race Course - August 12, 2006

Off at: 3:41 Race Type: Claiming
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
Value of Race: $12,000
Distance: Five And One Half Furlongs
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:07.82
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Paul's Lil Mate Daniel Centeno 85.00 16.60 9.00
11 Flawless Gem Jermaine Valentino Bridgmohan 3.20 2.60
12 Trippin Ash Abel Castellano, Jr. 4.20
Also ran: 3 - Cloudynhot , 7 - Skip Along , 1 - Daylight Time , 9 - Dodi N Me , 8 - Indian Summer Girl , 10 - Summer Brook
Scratched horses: Lone Smitten , Perfect Red Nails , Talisi

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 2-11-5 (3 correct) 15,627.00
$2 Exacta 5-11 380.80
$2 Superfecta 5-11-12-3 4,000.20
$2 Trifecta 5-11-12 2,713.80
Winning Breeder: Stever Horne
Winning Owner: Paul B. Watson
Winning Trainer: Gregory A. Griffith

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Tote Master]

Great Results all day, but this one stood out!

MTP – Entry# - ODDS - Amt. Win Pool
0...........1.........-................---
0...........2........12 .........$1125.00
0...........3........12.........$1104.00
0...........4.......5/2.........$3985.00
0...........5........40 .........$ 346.00
0...........6.........1..........$6713.00
0...........7.........6..........$1979.00
0...........8........24 .........$ 570.00
0...........9........17 .........$ 783.00
0..........10.......35..........$ 382.00
0..........11.......15..........$ 877.00

Tote Analysis
MTP........Entry # Ranking Table - (w/odds for each entry No. & P = Par)
18..........8/5........5...........10..........30.........6..... ......*............5.........25
............6.......2.........9.........10.......3 ........P..........4.......5

15..........8/5........6...........18.........10...........6.... ......*............5..........9
............6.......2........10.........9.......3. ........P..........4........7

10..........3/5........9............25........13..........*..... .....10...........9...........6
...........6........2........10.........9.......P. ........3..........7........4

7............4/5........9............25........13..........*..... .....10...........9..........6
...........6........2........10.........9.......P. ........3..........7.......4

5............10........4/5..........25.........16.........*...........11... .......7..........4
...........2........6 ........10.........9.......P.........3.........7.. .....4

Results for:
Race:…..5…………….......……..…Win…..…Place….Show
1st…..3…..BICHO DE LUZ (ARG)……..29.80…..10.00……6.00
2nd…..6…..CHISPAZO…………………….......………..4.00……3.40
3rd….10….SOUP TIME………………………...........……………10.00
4th…..2…..AUTOMATIC WEAPON
$2 Exacta……………………………..……3-6…………...…..…….62.60
$2 Trifecta………………………………...3-6-10…………..…1702.00
$2 Superfecta…………………………….3-6-10-2…...…19002.60...BINGO!
Refunds: 1

[schweitz]

Calder pick-3 pools usually don't have that much in them---most likely that the payoff was for a $1 pick-3 which would be 1/2 of the reported $2 payoff.

[formula_2002]

Calder pick-3 pools usually don't have that much in them---most likely that the payoff was for a $1 pick-3 which would be 1/2 of the reported $2 payoff.
Thanks very much.
My problem accepting the $10453 figure was due to the fact that there was only $6877 in the pick 3 pool.
I had to make sense of that, and you just did it for me.
That payoff works out to just about 25% take.

My calculated $2 payoff was $13,000+.
So for my 2 bucks, the most I could have received was $6877...
All is well again. :jump:

[cj]

Thanks very much.
My problem accepting the $10453 figure was due to the fact that there was only $6877 in the pick 3 pool.
I had to make sense of that, and you just did it for me.
That payoff works out to just about 25% take.

My calculated $2 payoff was $13,000+.
So for my 2 bucks, the most I could have received was $6877...
All is well again. :jump:

With all your statiscal studies and experience with racing, I am flabbergasted you would need someone to explain this to you.

Another thing to consider when you study super exotics like P4s, P3s, supers, etc., is that you must take into account the effect of you having hit it on payouts where there are only a few winning tickets, or one. In the example above, there was $1 on the winning combination. The combo received $5,226.50, the amount of the pool minus the takeout. If you had $2 on the combo, the most you could have received for your $2 was 2/3s that amount, or $3,484.20. The amount would actually be a little bigger as your bet would also increase the pool size, but I think you will get the point.

You also need to be able to calculate your payoff if you would have been the only winner. For this, you need pool size and takeout.

[formula_2002]

I had closed the books on exotics many years ago, I lost touch with some of the structure. But I’ll admit one of your recent posts caused me write this analysis program and take another look.
After running the results of 80 pick 3’s at CRC, I said to my self..”Was CJ right about this?” But things were not making sense, so I clung onto one of my axioms, “If it looks to be too good to be true, it probably is. Go find out why”
I’ll include the adjustments you suggest, and even take another swipe at, I mean re-read Crist’s book. ;)

I appreciate your comments...

[cj]

The only thing I was getting at in my post was that you can take down pretty big sized pools on small tickets outside the major tracks. If I play an $10 ticket in a P3 at EvD and have to only $1 winning combo and get back $3010, I just cashed at 300 to 1.

The EvD pools I've taken have averaged around $3,000 for a $1 payout. How many NYRA P3s have had a $2 payoff of $6,000 this year? If there were any, I would bet nearly anything they involved two longshots that were very hard to come up with unless the all button were used. This just isn't the case at the smaller venues. I don't know why for sure, but I would guess that people aren't willing to go very deep when the pool is in the $3,000 to $5,000 range.

[formula_2002]

The only thing I was getting at in my post was that you can take down pretty big sized pools on small tickets outside the major tracks. If I play an $10 ticket in a P3 at EvD and have to only $1 winning combo and get back $3010, I just cashed at 300 to 1.

The EvD pools I've taken have averaged around $3,000 for a $1 payout. How many NYRA P3s have had a $2 payoff of $6,000 this year? If there were any, I would bet nearly anything they involved two longshots that were very hard to come up with unless the all button were used. This just isn't the case at the smaller venues. I don't know why for sure, but I would guess that people aren't willing to go very deep when the pool is in the $3,000 to $5,000 range.


I guess, I'm just missing the point.
If I bet $1.00 and get the entire pool of say $3000.00 ?
what value is it if the $1 should have returned $6000

[cj]

I know that none of the P3s I took the pool on would have had a $1 parlay value of more than the pool. Everyone but one included one price horse, $40 or higher, a horse between $14 and $20, and a non odds on less than $10 horse. The other included three horses all between 6-1 and 9-1. It is definitely not like I had three winners, all at over 20-1.

To get a "should have paid" of over $3,000 for a $1, you would need huge odds. I doubt I've ever played a P3 ticket where any combo I had should have resulted in that big of a payoff.

Of course, one other thing that you refuse to acknowledge is that just because a horse is 3-1 on the board doesn't mean that is his actual chance of winning that race. I may have given him a 40% chance to win, and actually been right! While the public's huge group of 3-1s probably wins the expected number of races over the long haul, they are wrong on specific horses a high percentage of the time. That is another story for another day though. Chew on the first part for a while.

[formula_2002]

Using some of the points that were made here regarding the pick three analysis, I have attached an excel file I hope you find helpful. I further hope that it is self-explanatory, if not just ask away..
It covers 80 pick three’s that I have in my August data base for CRC.
What concerns me is that is shows a return in excess of the expected return and with that I figure there is an error, then again, perhaps not.
29 of the 80 p3 resulted in overlays.
All the calculations are base on 18% win pool take and 25% p3 pool take
Comments will be appreciated..

Thanks
Joe M

[formula_2002]

Just ran through 75 pic 3's at SAR.
Sar a/e =.75, compared to crc a/e of 1.16
basically, a/e =roi.

At sar there were 88,668 $2 unit tickets sharing $28,544, compared to crc where 6584 tickets shared $71,136.

From this little sampling, you think you could take a different perspective on the saying
"TOO MANY COOKS SPOIL THE BROTH"

That is one of the main reasons I like the very early line on Pinnacle matchups. At the begining, it's one mans broth (line)..
You have to be over 65 for that one. :)

[formula_2002]

Just ran through 75 pic 3's at SAR.
Sar a/e =.75, compared to crc a/e of 1.16
basically, a/e =roi.

At sar there were 88,668 $2 unit tickets sharing $28,544, compared to crc where 6584 tickets shared $71,136.

From this little sampling, you think you could take a different perspective on the saying
"TOO MANY COOKS SPOIL THE BROTH"

That is one of the main reasons I like the very early line on Pinnacle matchups. At the begining, it's one mans broth (line)..
You have to be over 65 for that one. :)
That should be;
88,668 $2 unit tickets sharing a pool of $10,283,381
or $115 average $2 unit. vs 125 average $2 unit..
I don't think that really means much..just a stat..

[twindouble]

I know that none of the P3s I took the pool on would have had a $1 parlay value of more than the pool. Everyone but one included one price horse, $40 or higher, a horse between $14 and $20, and a non odds on less than $10 horse. The other included three horses all between 6-1 and 9-1. It is definitely not like I had three winners, all at over 20-1.

To get a "should have paid" of over $3,000 for a $1, you would need huge odds. I doubt I've ever played a P3 ticket where any combo I had should have resulted in that big of a payoff.

Of course, one other thing that you refuse to acknowledge is that just because a horse is 3-1 on the board doesn't mean that is his actual chance of winning that race. I may have given him a 40% chance to win, and actually been right! While the public's huge group of 3-1s probably wins the expected number of races over the long haul, they are wrong on specific horses a high percentage of the time. That is another story for another day though. Chew on the first part for a while.

Not that any of this means a lot to me but I would like to think I have a feel for small tracks and small pools. What you two don't mention is the number of players at the track or online. It's interesting how the ebb and flow of money being wagered effects the payoffs, in the picks and exotics. By ebb and flow I'm talking about how people wager from the first race on up to the last. My gut tells me there's more opportunity mid way through to the last. Reason being, the early races set the stage for the type of payoffs your talking about, when the chalks win there's less apt to be huge playoff later in the day and you rarely see a first three and all payoffs. When it's a long shot day early, the amount of capital dwindles and most are trying to recover with less so they make wishful wagers. You'll see like cj said horses that should be first or second choice off the form going sporting good value. Great opportunity for good handicappers. Keep in mind I said "gut" feeling because it's worked for me right along. You can only go so deep with less money the last few races ESP when attendence is low.


Good luck,


T.D.

[formula_2002]

TD, I now have almost 1000 p3 plays recored through my program. I can even do an analysis by race numbers (even as a percentage of the cards total races), I have to set some time aside for rest..My brain, like Agassi's body..hurting.
But I will say that the almost 1000 p3 returned an roi of .88.. not too bad.
At CJ's EVD, I clocked 92 p3's at an roi of .77..
Looks to me everything is about the same as I saw it a long time ago.. :bang:

[cj]

As long as you continue to insist the publics odds are accurate in every race, you will always get results that are close to the track take. I'd stick to craps with your mentality. That isn't a knock, but it just seems you don't get that the public is wrong many times in individual races, even if the collective result is predictable.

Here is one example for the sake of argument. I predict a horse has an 80% chance to win a 4.5f race at Yavapai. The horse wins by 15 lengths eased up, and pays $5.00 even, or 3-2 (true story by the way). Whose assessment was better, mine or the publics? Which percentage would you use in calculating the fair payoff in a P3 or P4?

[formula_2002]

CJ, I'm not against winning, and I do believe that there is diversity in the singular incremental odds, and that some people have a more accurate predictive power than others.

You are impressed when your calculated 25 cents on the dollar horse pays $1.50, as would most, but can you do it a thousand times.
You have to excuse another adage of mine.."Can you do it a thousand times"..It gives some people pause.

Now you are obviously pleased with your results. You are able to overcome an Enormous handicap (the take).
I wish I could say the same, but I'd be far from being comfortable with my advantage, if I did know what my possible dis-advantage was...
That a little chewey, but I hope you know what I mean..

[cj]

1000 times? I have no idea. I don't even really know if I was right in my example race. Maybe in reality, the horse had a 10% chance to win and won, and I was lucky. That is my point. You never really knows what the fair payoff is, because you never really knows what the true win percentage of each entrant was before the race. All I know is that for every $2.00 I push through the window, I get back about $2.12 plus another $0.12 in rebates.

My belief is that people look at the whole set when they should be looking at individual races, then look at individual races when they should be looking at the whole set. In other words, I have heard people making an odds line ask "Do your 4-1 shots win 20% of the time?" My answer is always I don't know, and don't care. All I care about is that for every $2 bet I make on a 4-1 shot, I get back $2.01, or even less with rebate. It doesn't matter if I had the line dead wrong 3 out of 4 times, as long as the one time I am right results in enough profit to make up for my mistakes.

To quote Bill O'Reilly, "Tell me why I am wrong?"

[formula_2002]

You were doing well until you closed the with one of worst factor's of all time..the O'Reilly one.

He nor you should care about being wrong in the eye's of anyone.
I'd tell him and I would suggest to you, just keep doing what you think is right and at the end of the day, you'll have a good sleep.
I'm not trying to prove you wrong, I'm just trying to understand what I"M up against, and the stuff I posted here helps ME get a grip on things..

[cj]

I'm not trying to prove you wrong, I'm just trying to understand what I"M up against, and the stuff I posted here helps ME get a grip on things..

I am just trying to show you that your method of testing is always going to lead to the same result, losing around the take. You are using the off odds as a basis for a horse's real chance of winning. Until you change that one factor, your results will not change.

[formula_2002]

I thought "2 correct" ment 2 winning tickets were sold.. The pick three pool was over $4400.
Whats wrong with this picture?
Thanks


6th race - Evangeline Downs - August 17, 2006

Off at: 8:46 Race Type: Claiming
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $16,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:42.47
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Goodbye Mr Goodbye David C. Elston 16.20 7.60 4.60
5 Exfirmed Michael L. Wright 3.60 3.00
2 Sadie Mae Damon Duhon 5.60
Also ran: 8 - Giuseppe's Champ , 4 - Tell Me Mr G , 1 - Becca's Salut , 7 - Malagra's Gem , 6 - Glad You Dance

wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 10-7-3 (2 correct) 275.80
$2 Exacta 3-5 56.00
$2 Quinella 3-5 24.40
$2 Superfecta 3-5-2-8 1,858.80
$2 Trifecta 3-5-2 431.40
Winning Breeder: Virginia S. Cobb
Winning Owner: Fred J. Landry
Winning Trainer: Fred J. Landry

[twindouble]

formula_2002; All you needed was the first to legs to hit the pick 3.

[formula_2002]

Oh yes, I seem to recall. But is it not any two legs?
Like a pick six, "5 correct" means any 5 of six, right?

And then in the pick 6 they have a carry over. I guess they dont do that for a pick 3.

Any way, the first leg winning odds was 34.9-1, the second leg was 32.8-1
The first two leg "pick two" should have paid About $3300, and it returned under $300.

there were about 12 winning $2 unit sold

[cj]

It is any two legs. If you hit one like this at Pinnacle, they pay you the pool minus 25%. You don't get the 2 of 3 payoffs of course.

[twindouble]

Oh yes, I seem to recall. But is it not any two legs?
Like a pick six, "5 correct" means any 5 of six, right?

And then in the pick 6 they have a carry over. I guess they dont do that for a pick 3.

Any way, the first leg winning odds was 34.9-1, the second leg was 32.8-1
The first two leg "pick two" should have paid About $3300, and it returned under $300.

there were about 12 winning $2 unit sold

That don't really mean anything, players go deep at the small tracks, don't suprise me. I see first two an "ALL" many times over the year but I don't know what the % is. Small I would say. I find many picks where I'll key the last race and go deep in the first two, or the other way around. All depends.

[formula_2002]

It is any two legs. If you hit one like this at Pinnacle, they pay you the pool minus 25%. You don't get the 2 of 3 payoffs of course.
the pool was $4413 less 25%=$3309.
The $2 pay off was $275. That means 12.03, $2 units sold.
What would pinnacle pay off be?

Bris xrd file does not flag this " 2 correct", so I'll have to figure out something.

By the way, I am re-reading Crist's pick 3 section.
This is the kind of stuff I would have expected of him.
He should have included stuff like my attachment and the descriptions of these "atypical" payoffs that you guys are explaining.


Thanks

[cj]

Pinnacle would have paid $3309, and that is for a $1 bet. I have hit several of these (this is not one I hit) at EvD, and that is why I don't play $2 tickets. You get the same amount whether you had $1 or $2 or $10 on the winning combo.

[formula_2002]

Pinnacle would have paid $3309, and that is for a $1 bet. I have hit several of these (this is not one I hit) at EvD, and that is why I don't play $2 tickets. You get the same amount whether you had $1 or $2 or $10 on the winning combo.

Yikes!! That does'nt even make good business sense.
I'm glad for you. What if you had $1 on the combo and I had $1 bet on the same combo at pinnacle, do we split the $3309??

[cj]

Both would get the 3309. They are very fair in my opinion on this.

[formula_2002]

Both would get the 3309. They are very fair in my opinion on this.
That has to be nice surprise. You see the track pay off, look at your account, and bingo!!.

I'll have to factor that into my strategy ;)