Bala
08-31-2006, 05:46 PM
Internet gambling is a big business. And it’ll get even bigger, despite a government crackdown and halfhearted legislative moves. More than $12 billion will be wagered this year alone. And by 2010, revenue will hit $25 billion, with Americans accounting for about half. Technology makes it easy for gamblers to circumvent U.S. laws, and banks are blocking a move to ban the use of credit cards for betting. http://www.osga.com/artman/publish/article_4656.shtml
The cease-fire in Lebanon won’t hold. It may last a few weeks, even a few months, but the war isn’t over. Hezbollah's refusal to give up its arms, as the UN has demanded, guarantees more fighting. And Round 2 may turn into a wider war. If Israel sees that Iran is rearming Hezbollah through Syria, Israel will strike Syrian targets. Having failed to oust Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, Israel needs to reestablish its military dominance to deter its hostile neighbors. Expect major shake-ups in Israel in anticipation of new fighting.
Top military commanders will be sacked. And Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in jeopardy, saved for now only by a lack of consensus on a successor.
The stock option scandal will hit a lot more companies hard. And more than a few investors will be hurt. Financial markets will punish many of the 80 businesses accused of backdating options to increase their value, and some executives may face jail time. One study says as many as 2000 companies fiddled with option dates. Among those affected: Apple, McAfee and Brocade Communications. But the scandal is no Enron. No big companies will collapse, and markets as a whole won’t be hit by a loss of investor confidence. It won’t even stop the drive to roll back Sarbanes-Oxley, the corporate governance law that Congress enacted after Enron’s fall. Many lawmakers, regulators and executives feel the law goes too far, imposing large burdens on firms that have to spend millions of dollars on compliance. The rollback will benefit mainly smaller companies.
A tragically odd thing about Iraq: There has been some progress. But it has had no effect on the violence. Successful elections, a unity government that continues to hold despite internal weakness, and the capture of top insurgents haven’t made ordinary Iraqis safer. Sectarian strife is worse, with an unending cycle of revenge killings. If Iraq isn’t in a civil war yet, the risk of one is high. And if U.S. troops leave, it’s a certainty. Shiite and Kurdish forces would move quickly into Sunni areas, sparking a new wave of violence. The new government is doing what it can. It’s working very hard to bring many more Sunnis, from top officers to rank-and-file soldiers, into Shiite-dominated security forces. Ironically, that may add to risks that Shiite troops will balk if ordered to act against Shiite militias. They’re much less likely to do so at the command of Sunni officers.
Will housing's slump cause a recession? No. But it will slow growth a lot through next year, until the balance of supply and demand for residential property returns. Next year...2.5% economic growth TOPS, and it may well be closer to 2%. Housing is delivering a triple economic whammy: A sharp, sudden drop in housing construction, financial strains on many homeowners’ incomes and a major chill in consumer confidence. Energy prices remain the linchpin on whether the economy sinks or swims in 2007. A big increase in costs of oil and other fuels would be too much for U.S. consumers to bear on top of the hit they’re taking from housing. In my opinion, oil prices have peaked.
_________________
OutSource congress.
The cease-fire in Lebanon won’t hold. It may last a few weeks, even a few months, but the war isn’t over. Hezbollah's refusal to give up its arms, as the UN has demanded, guarantees more fighting. And Round 2 may turn into a wider war. If Israel sees that Iran is rearming Hezbollah through Syria, Israel will strike Syrian targets. Having failed to oust Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, Israel needs to reestablish its military dominance to deter its hostile neighbors. Expect major shake-ups in Israel in anticipation of new fighting.
Top military commanders will be sacked. And Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in jeopardy, saved for now only by a lack of consensus on a successor.
The stock option scandal will hit a lot more companies hard. And more than a few investors will be hurt. Financial markets will punish many of the 80 businesses accused of backdating options to increase their value, and some executives may face jail time. One study says as many as 2000 companies fiddled with option dates. Among those affected: Apple, McAfee and Brocade Communications. But the scandal is no Enron. No big companies will collapse, and markets as a whole won’t be hit by a loss of investor confidence. It won’t even stop the drive to roll back Sarbanes-Oxley, the corporate governance law that Congress enacted after Enron’s fall. Many lawmakers, regulators and executives feel the law goes too far, imposing large burdens on firms that have to spend millions of dollars on compliance. The rollback will benefit mainly smaller companies.
A tragically odd thing about Iraq: There has been some progress. But it has had no effect on the violence. Successful elections, a unity government that continues to hold despite internal weakness, and the capture of top insurgents haven’t made ordinary Iraqis safer. Sectarian strife is worse, with an unending cycle of revenge killings. If Iraq isn’t in a civil war yet, the risk of one is high. And if U.S. troops leave, it’s a certainty. Shiite and Kurdish forces would move quickly into Sunni areas, sparking a new wave of violence. The new government is doing what it can. It’s working very hard to bring many more Sunnis, from top officers to rank-and-file soldiers, into Shiite-dominated security forces. Ironically, that may add to risks that Shiite troops will balk if ordered to act against Shiite militias. They’re much less likely to do so at the command of Sunni officers.
Will housing's slump cause a recession? No. But it will slow growth a lot through next year, until the balance of supply and demand for residential property returns. Next year...2.5% economic growth TOPS, and it may well be closer to 2%. Housing is delivering a triple economic whammy: A sharp, sudden drop in housing construction, financial strains on many homeowners’ incomes and a major chill in consumer confidence. Energy prices remain the linchpin on whether the economy sinks or swims in 2007. A big increase in costs of oil and other fuels would be too much for U.S. consumers to bear on top of the hit they’re taking from housing. In my opinion, oil prices have peaked.
_________________
OutSource congress.